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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,521
  • Edited 4:30am Oct 29, 2015 4:18am | Edited 4:30am
Hi Sisse,

Quote
Any further break above the 2100 handle will only send STRONG 'bubble about to burst' signal for the next Quarter. For today, only an extreme dovish FED will take equities further up the initial knee jerk reaction...

I'm not an S&P trader (I prefer currencies) but I took a calculated risk and shorted at 2090 on the assumption that there was more bias to the downside than up (at least down to 2070).

Could you briefly elaborate on why a break above 2100 would be unsustainable,
and what kind of (black swan?) circumstance could push and sustain the S&P above 2100?

Cheers.
  • #137,522
  • Oct 29, 2015 4:59am Oct 29, 2015 4:59am
DAX:
I would take the area 10825-45 as reference... to decide on what side to stay
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #137,523
  • Edited 5:58am Oct 29, 2015 5:08am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting Driver55
DAX: I would take the area 10825-45 as reference... to decide on what side to stay
I'll monitor that range. Cheers.

Actually, equities aren't my forte so I'll set the SL at break-even and let it ride for better or worse.

Back to FX (my warm & furry comfort zone).
  • #137,524
  • Oct 29, 2015 10:20am Oct 29, 2015 10:20am
Quoting sisse
....we got a lot 'less dovish bordering on the hawkish' FED yesterday. Without Global risk on the agenda, one more time the FED has nowhere to hide so pretty much we are back on the June/July environment when Sep hikes were on sight. For trading purposes, mark next NFP and Inflation reports as MAJOR (more than usual) movers and shakers ....
risk rally is now a month old....SnP working on fifth straight weekly green candle....earnings season will be winding down, maybe a little red candle or a doji next week would help grease the skids for a November assault on new ath's....angst around Fed moves were exhausted in September....I am debating on whether to spend the margin to set up for a possible hike n' dump in December....as I have said before, I really don't think JY would do that to Santa.....beyond that, maybe it won't matter anyway....I am less skeptical than you are about the possibility of another level jump....spoos could close out the year on a hunt for 2,200....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,525
  • Oct 29, 2015 12:42pm Oct 29, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} It was a typo on my side, a missing "." It's 1.07071 I'm talking about. {image}
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Could be a long time friend... Plenty of time to fix your garden! Perhaps your new found refugee friends can help
Are we there, yet? Call me, when it's done.

New entries after pullback.
  • #137,526
  • Oct 29, 2015 1:01pm Oct 29, 2015 1:01pm
Anyone recommend some good books on fundamentals, money flow, and traditional correlation between currencies, equities, and commodities?
  • #137,527
  • Oct 29, 2015 1:04pm Oct 29, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} {quote} Are we there, yet? Call me, when it's done. New entries after pullback.
Yeah looks like my norm went cahput. Will be drawing some new this weekend, set up some alerts etc.

Been crazy here- haven't even fired up the platform this week.
  • #137,528
  • Oct 29, 2015 1:11pm Oct 29, 2015 1:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} risk rally is now a month old...spoos could close out the year on a hunt for 2,200....?
Technically, a new ATH is very marginally open for this year but it will create a MAJOR cluster fuck (extended chop zone prolly for years ...) But fundamentally I don't think we can with the current environment. Even a tick above will make me very scare and pessimistic about next year as it will trigger bubble about to burst alerts...sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,529
  • Oct 29, 2015 1:21pm Oct 29, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting roobii
Anyone recommend some good books on fundamentals, money flow, and traditional correlation between currencies, equities, and commodities?
Ask sisse ... No other in this forum can guide you much better than him...
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,530
  • Oct 29, 2015 1:56pm Oct 29, 2015 1:56pm
Hey sisse!

What do you mean with this:
to settle the M roll around 1.097x
What does word roll stands for?

Thank you!
  • #137,531
  • Oct 29, 2015 2:05pm Oct 29, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting Jure86
Hey sisse! What do you mean with this: to settle the M roll around 1.097x What does word roll stands for? Thank you!
It means close.
  • #137,532
  • Oct 29, 2015 2:11pm Oct 29, 2015 2:11pm
Yea the way he puts it all together is phenomenal. In my progression I feel I really need to start working on this since you can be the best technical trader but I feel if you can do it in the context of fundamentals you can greatly increase your probability for success. So Sisse..lol I redirect my question to you? Any good books on fundamentals, money flow, and traditional correlation between currencies, equities, and commodities?

Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Ask sisse ... No other in this forum can guide you much better than him...
  • #137,533
  • Oct 29, 2015 2:23pm Oct 29, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting roobii
Any good books on fundamentals, money flow, and traditional correlation between currencies, equities, and commodities?
search the entries for "Intermarket Analysis" on Amazon.com. Tell 'em The Fool sent you.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,534
  • Oct 29, 2015 2:25pm Oct 29, 2015 2:25pm
Quoting sisse
Technically, a new ATH is very marginally open for this year but it will create a MAJOR cluster fuck (extended chop zone prolly for years ...) But fundamentally I don't think we can with the current environment. Even a tick above will make me very scare and pessimistic about next year as it will trigger bubble about to burst alerts...sisse
Don't be scurred, sisse - I will ask Santa to bring you something nice. I know you've been good.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,535
  • Oct 29, 2015 3:21pm Oct 29, 2015 3:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} search the entries for "Intermarket Analysis" on Amazon.com. Tell 'em The Fool sent you.
found the motherload of stuff.... Omazing!!! Fool you are alright!!
  • #137,536
  • Oct 30, 2015 4:14am Oct 30, 2015 4:14am
Quoting dasilva
{quote} I'll monitor that range. Cheers. Actually, equities aren't my forte so I'll set the SL at break-even and let it ride for better or worse. Back to FX (my warm & furry comfort zone).
That's my B/E hit, I'm out.
Nice call Driver55, right on time for the DAX 10825-45 reference (10850 a couple of hours ago).

Furthermore, S&P doesn't look like it's shying away from 2100 so easily.

Quoting The Fool
...spoos could close out the year on a hunt for 2,200....?
You might be right about that.. or at least 2150..
  • #137,537
  • Oct 30, 2015 4:40am Oct 30, 2015 4:40am
Quoting dasilva
{quote} That's my B/E hit, I'm out. Nice call Driver55, right on time for the DAX 10825-45 reference (10850 a couple of hours ago).
ok, personally I closed yesterday.
beside this , we should agree when a level is exceeded.
Regardless of what timeframe you use, I consider the level reached only when the openprice is above / below.
In this case you will not see any candle with openprice above 10845.
Trading on openprice can lead to major losses, but often save your trade.
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #137,538
  • Edited 5:31am Oct 30, 2015 5:20am | Edited 5:31am
I was using 1hr, and you are correct, it never opened (or closed) above the upper range.
No matter, I was out safely long before then at 0 pips p/l.

Price is back to where I originally entered short but I won't re-enter.
I have a general feel for where/why a currency will bounce/break rally/retreat, and contingent plans if it doesn't.
However, I don't have the same confidence with equities, but I do monitor VIX for general fear sentiment.

What generally happens with equities is my "fear & greed gremlin" (that I keep locked up in my mental cellar)
escapes and starts fekkin with me. With currencies it just stays locked up and under control.
  • #137,539
  • Oct 30, 2015 7:13am Oct 30, 2015 7:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} search the entries for "Intermarket Analysis" on Amazon.com. Tell 'em The Fool sent you.
I'm wearing mine for Christmas.....are you?

http://www.chubbiesshorts.com/produc...ol-saint-nicks
  • #137,540
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:32am Oct 30, 2015 8:32am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Technically, a new ATH is very marginally open for this year but it will create a MAJOR cluster fuck (extended chop zone prolly for years ...) But fundamentally I don't think we can with the current environment. Even a tick above will make me very scare and pessimistic about next year as it will trigger bubble about to burst alerts...sisse
Hello Everyone,

Wanted to bring up a pair not usually discussed here USDCAD.
I base my trading and analysis on TA , some of you might have seen a chart or two of mine.

Anyway, this pair is very interesting from a technical standpoint:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 52 KB



This year is almost over, and will be the 2nd year in a row the pair has not touched the Yearly Pivot. This means that next year the Yearly pivot is likely to be touched or at least we will see a move in it's direction (Price moving to equilibrium) .We are right on the current Yearly R3 and just had a recent rejection at the Monthly Pivot (1.3260 area). Assuming we do not go above 1.3300 (That would be SL) , I see a possible healthy downward correction which should last a few months. To where?
The Next year Yearly pivot will be at approximately the area of 1.26/1.27 (assuming we don't move to much from current levels. ) That is my TP target for a SHORT trade.
ALSO, major LONG TERM divergence on the Daily chart (MACD ultra long term setting ..)
The RR is terrific.

I am by no means a fundamental expert - Thank goodness Sisse is here to shed some light for all of us (And the Fool as well)
Sisse can you drop a word or two fundamentally on USDCAD.. Also OIL in your view can go to 26.xx if I remeber but for my trade to work I need it going to 60.xx or similar. I am sick of EUR i, that pair is such a douche bag

Anyone care to comment?. I have yet to pull the trigger as I go in pretty heavy and long term so I like to be very confident and decisive while executing my trades.
Thank you everyone and again, ESPECIALLY TO SISSE
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