AUD/USD | Page 4664 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #93,261
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:57pm Oct 28, 2015 9:57pm
Quoting mikok730
{quote} maybe burnt the account already
I am still here. I have some losses, but.......
Waiting on US GDP and hold on 2% interest rate in Australia,
Thats it, not much to say
  • #93,262
  • Oct 28, 2015 10:07pm Oct 28, 2015 10:07pm
Quoting lioslim
Quoting mikok730 {quote} maybe burnt the account already I am still here. I have some losses, but....... Waiting on US GDP and hold on 2% interest rate in Australia, Thats it, not much to say
agree with you, short term is look like heading down but long term is unclear direction, both can happen
  • #93,263
  • Oct 28, 2015 10:08pm Oct 28, 2015 10:08pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} it's irritating for picking an intraday trade isn't it. and simultaneously risky to pick a trend trade to hold since there still is a good case for the AUD to go either direction. grr. think i'll take an early weekend and prep for my flight across the pacific.
Totally agree, anyway, which continent are you heading to?
Safe flight mate!
  • #93,264
  • Oct 28, 2015 10:14pm Oct 28, 2015 10:14pm
Happy Thursday everyone!

Any possibilities for AUD/USD to touch 72c between today/tomorrow?

I don't really get the data from the US - it could be so bad but USD will still strengthen, so any chance for some recovery for AUD despite a strong US data later Thursday?
  • #93,265
  • Oct 28, 2015 10:19pm Oct 28, 2015 10:19pm
Hello to all traders,

This is not a tip, hence i won't be responsible for any losses should you heed this advice.

Now that the FED had spoken, there is this possibility of a rate hike in December. From now until the next meeting, generally investors will buy US Dollar aggressively in anticipation of a rate hike. Before the meeting, markets are pricing in a rate hike in 2016, after the meeting, markets have to re-position themselves for a rate hike before year end.

If you guys are in line with market movements, you will notice that GOLD and S&P rallied high up before the meeting. After the meeting, it went rock bottom because it didn't met market expectations of a rate hike in 2016. Iron ore and commodities are not rallying nor is there a sign of recovery as well.

IMHO, the bottom is not formed yet. To each his own

GL!
  • #93,266
  • Oct 28, 2015 10:34pm Oct 28, 2015 10:34pm
Quoting SkyrEk
Hello to all traders, This is not a tip, hence i won't be responsible for any losses should you heed this advice. Now that the FED had spoken, there is this possibility of a rate hike in December. From now until the next meeting, generally investors will buy US Dollar aggressively in anticipation of a rate hike. Before the meeting, markets are pricing in a rate hike in 2016, after the meeting, markets have to re-position themselves for a rate hike before year end. If you guys are in line with market movements, you will notice that GOLD and S&P rallied...
Agree mate

i think so "the bottom is not formed yet"

p.s. have a nice ride
"Nothing comes easy"
  • #93,267
  • Oct 28, 2015 10:38pm Oct 28, 2015 10:38pm
Quoting samgrey
{quote} Hindsight.. Yes. Look, I wasn't pointing at you individually. I've just made losses in forex, despite knowing good long term trends. I am just railing against the short term views peddled on this forum. I have quit forex for good. I just think on a long term, Australian economy has little going for it. .
Mate, I am sure that any successful top-gun here has made losses, some of them possibly quite big. I am no successful trader, but I have also lost some big money. However, I have also tasted some good successes and I have hopes for the future. Forex is the place where you can lose it faster than you made it and also make back what you lost! It all depends how you learn from your mistakes and how you lift your game.

From this forum, one important thing that I have learnt is you can also play by the charts and not just by the news. In fact some of the top guns here play more by the charts rather than simply the news. It's a skill that I am trying to acquire and so should you. And the news.. yes they certainly help for some scalping every now and then.
  • #93,268
  • Oct 28, 2015 10:47pm Oct 28, 2015 10:47pm
Quoting SkyrEk
Hello to all traders, This is not a tip, hence i won't be responsible for any losses should you heed this advice. Now that the FED had spoken, there is this possibility of a rate hike in December. From now until the next meeting, generally investors will buy US Dollar aggressively in anticipation of a rate hike. Before the meeting, markets are pricing in a rate hike in 2016, after the meeting, markets have to re-position themselves for a rate hike before year end. If you guys are in line with market movements, you will notice that GOLD and S&P rallied...
Totally agree. Aud has been stuck in an upper range. Australia's labour numbers are considered good with 6.2 percent unemployment, whereas for USA 5.1 percent and stabilising is bad. Go figure.

Roy Hill is about to bring in another 55 MTA of iron ore capacity in the next month or so in aus. So, more price downside on iron ore. Oil does not seem like getting up from the mat. http://m.smh.com.au/business/mining-...27-gkkdrv.html

Gold rallied because everyone was expecting a dovish tone from fed, but got the opposite.
  • #93,269
  • Oct 28, 2015 11:16pm Oct 28, 2015 11:16pm
Quoting synapsez
{quote} Agree mate i think so "the bottom is not formed yet" p.s. have a nice ride
the bottom is far from over. as long as we're still hanging in the air over the RBA's decision, with all these developments the past day the AUD should see more "long" covering.

imo, i think that whatever goes, 70-71 cents will be the midpoint for the AUD for the next few months. unless the fed does indeed hike then this should go down to 66-67cents. honestly, i can't see the AUD rallying higher any more from here. the 'window of opportunity' has passed.
  • #93,270
  • Oct 28, 2015 11:51pm Oct 28, 2015 11:51pm
And here is an economist who thinks that AUS interest rates will not be cut any further down at all.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...28-gklgin.html

Frankly speaking, I like this theory and there is a good probability that RBA will not cut the rates. The banks will not pass on the rates to the customers anyways. They will see this as an opportunity to satisfy APRA's rules and maintain better ratios.

And maybe the Aussie will bounce upwards after next week's RBA meeting. But this is just a theory...
  • #93,271
  • Oct 29, 2015 12:18am Oct 29, 2015 12:18am
Quoting wisemonk
{quote} Mate, I am sure that any successful top-gun here has made losses, some of them possibly quite big. I am no successful trader, but I have also lost some big money. However, I have also tasted some good successes and I have hopes for the future. Forex is the place where you can lose it faster than you made it and also make back what you lost! It all depends how you learn from your mistakes and how you lift your game. From this forum, one important thing that I have learnt is you can also play by the charts and not just by the news. In fact...
I agree that it can be done. But, I am choosing to quit completely, after losses.

Just not worth as a work/life balance besides the losses. I used to do a job (currently unemployed) - and when I used to finish the job, I left my desk and promptly forgot about all work stuff the moment I got out of the office door. Here, it continues non-stop. Slowly weaning myself away from looking at rates, etc.
  • #93,272
  • Edited 12:41am Oct 29, 2015 12:28am | Edited 12:41am
Quoting wisemonk
And here is an economist who thinks that AUS interest rates will not be cut any further down at all. http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...28-gklgin.html Frankly speaking, I like this theory and there is a good probability that RBA will not cut the rates. The banks will not pass on the rates to the customers anyways. They will see this as an opportunity to satisfy APRA's rules and maintain better ratios. And maybe the Aussie will bounce upwards after next week's...
I really like Bill Evans. Last year, he predicted the interest rate cuts in early 2015 before other economists. And this isn't the first time. You can read his high quality analysis below. It's excellent. Plus, he updates it weekly. Highly recommended.

https://www.westpac.com.au/docs/pdf/...tpacWeekly.pdf

Per the attached, he was originally forecasting 0.8% CPI for the quarter, but it came out at 0.5%. However, he reads RBA better than most, so yeah.

I think the reality is that it is too close to call. And, it might be for the the RBA as well. So, November rate cut might not happen, but if additional statistics come out in Nov which aren't great, they may move in Dec. At the same time, RBA has a history of moving on interest rates in November. The key issue is that they've assumed 3% growth rate for 2016. These growth forecasts are revised generally at or around this meeting as well.

Forex = gambling.
  • #93,273
  • Oct 29, 2015 3:12am Oct 29, 2015 3:12am
AudUsd ====> Sell Stop = 70910 / TP = 70753 / Sl = 71203

if this order open ; set 2* lot size Buy Stop ===> 71203 / TP = 71354 / SL = 71011

GL
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #93,274
  • Oct 29, 2015 7:43am Oct 29, 2015 7:43am
Quoting samgrey
{quote} Forex = gambling.
Gotta agree with you sometimes. However, the educated argument there is that in forex you manage the trade, whereas in gambling it's the luck of the dice.
  • #93,275
  • Oct 29, 2015 8:00am Oct 29, 2015 8:00am
Quoting ell3
{quote} Gotta agree with you sometimes. However, the educated argument there is that in forex you manage the trade, whereas in gambling it's the luck of the dice.
I would say it becomes gambling when you make risky deals
  • #93,276
  • Oct 29, 2015 8:01am Oct 29, 2015 8:01am
i would like to say more than 3-4 trade per day....would be more on gamble than calculated trade.
  • #93,277
  • Oct 29, 2015 8:19am Oct 29, 2015 8:19am
Quoting countdown
AudUsd ====> Sell Stop = 70910 / TP = 70753 / Sl = 71203 if this order open ; set 2* lot size Buy Stop ===> 71203 / TP = 71354 / SL = 71011 GL
done.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DestekFX MetaTrader 4.jpg Size: 421 KB
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #93,278
  • Oct 29, 2015 8:31am Oct 29, 2015 8:31am
FOMC was kind of perfect for longs taken earlier since there was a rally to it, so just SL and it got triggered at profit.

In terms of positioning now, I am staying out until RBA meets on Tuesday. At this rate, I still feel they will hold, but they may be too doveish, so lets see.

Could be targeting a double bottom around 68, then if Fed holds in December, that will send AUD rocketting. I won't want to trade that just yet though... intraday from here, lets discover the bottom.

If Fed actually raises rates, forget about any sustained AUD rally, we will go to 60s towards year end, and lower still next year as RBA starts to cut due to worsening local economy. The only situation where AUD will go to 75 and possibly higher, is if the RBA holds out on cuts at the same time as Fed holds and market sentiment about Fed hikes is pushed further out. If this combination of circumstances does not again begin to transpire, the AUD will not rally strongly.

Bearing in mind the Chinese 5 year plan is still the big wildcard, and according to leaks growth target is being lowered from 6.5 to 6.2 or so, which is definitely also very bad news, and no doubt is also weighing in on sentiment at the moment.

I expect an eventual relief rally based on anything, even RBA holding will trigger an algo spike, but be careful taking longs targeting too high imo.
  • #93,279
  • Oct 29, 2015 12:29pm Oct 29, 2015 12:29pm
in a bearish scenario , what levels of tp would you put in the 4H chart ?
  • #93,280
  • Oct 29, 2015 2:19pm Oct 29, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
FOMC was kind of perfect for longs taken earlier since there was a rally to it, so just SL and it got triggered at profit. In terms of positioning now, I am staying out until RBA meets on Tuesday. At this rate, I still feel they will hold, but they may be too doveish, so lets see. Could be targeting a double bottom around 68, then if Fed holds in December, that will send AUD rocketting. I won't want to trade that just yet though... intraday from here, lets discover the bottom. If Fed actually raises rates, forget about any sustained AUD rally, we...
Good analysis. I think china is spooked. Pboc did say 6-7 percent growth. So, the softening is in play. How much, I don't know. They are also relaxing the one child policy to push growth.
37 traders viewing now