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AUD/USD

  • #93,241
  • Oct 28, 2015 1:20pm Oct 28, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} ok, lets wait for another "custom" news from China fomc will take care of the rest tomorrow.
As Above, So Below
  • #93,242
  • Oct 28, 2015 1:29pm Oct 28, 2015 1:29pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote}
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #93,243
  • Oct 28, 2015 2:08pm Oct 28, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting fraktalas
My view {image}
I think 0.7080 is strong enough so took some long. Short was closed on 0.7090
  • #93,244
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:18pm Oct 28, 2015 3:18pm
Hey, where did all of the traders in the 75-76 camp go
Attached Image
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #93,245
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:43pm Oct 28, 2015 3:43pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #93,246
  • Oct 28, 2015 4:59pm Oct 28, 2015 4:59pm
All this is false supports.

I am calling a nov rate cut by RBA. At worst, they hold, but go dovish in the statement. And they will end up with a lot of pressure all the way to dec/jan.

Expect a big drop when they cut.
  • #93,247
  • Oct 28, 2015 5:54pm Oct 28, 2015 5:54pm
Quoting Expo33
Hey, where did all of the traders in the 75-76 camp go {image}
Same place team 60c went 2 months ago
  • #93,248
  • Edited 6:31pm Oct 28, 2015 6:17pm | Edited 6:31pm
WOW FOMC definitely causes a shitstorm......stayed out of AUDUSD but went short EURAUD from 1.55460 as the daily candle seems to have exhausted
and did not expect it to drop down 200+ pips.

Set a TP of 150 pips and target got hit this morning another nice suprise

I guess cause EURUSD took a beating so it did not correlated with AUDUSD....

Anyway took a small long and should be ok with AUDUSD as its on a nice support buy level and will adjust accordingly if needed - SL about 20 pips from previous daily candle low lets see how it goes.
  • #93,249
  • Oct 28, 2015 6:52pm Oct 28, 2015 6:52pm
Implied percentage of a November RBA rate cut has eased overnight.
Mid-morning trading in 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate (IB) Futures sees them 3 ticks lower at 98.12, indicating a rate cut chance of 53%, down from yesterday's close of a 67% likelihood.
  • #93,250
  • Oct 28, 2015 7:13pm Oct 28, 2015 7:13pm
Quoting Technician-
Hello guys, i am new to this gorgeous community. Would love to contribute to this thread as i see potential for further downside for this pair We have completed a retest to the main trend line, and completed an ABCD wave strutcure. Now we completed a breakout below 0.7195 support and double top neckline. I am looking for a move towards the minor rising trend line shown on chart below. It is currently around 0.6975. {image}
Hey Techo. Good to see you here mate. Always reading your trade ideas on Trading View.
Hope to see you around here more
  • #93,251
  • Oct 28, 2015 7:58pm Oct 28, 2015 7:58pm
Quoting redalert
{quote} Same place team 60c went 2 months ago
At the start of 2015, the rates were around 80 cents when RBA first cut. Then it dropped to 75 cents around the 2nd quarter. Then, it jumped right back up to 80 cents.

Then it started dropping back to 75 cents and then dropped to below 70 cents around September. Then it jumped back up to 73 cents. Now it's back at 71 cents.


AUD hit its peak against the USD in September 2013. Since then, it's been dropping. Do you think it will stop dropping? Not when the RBA is more likely to cut rates rather than raise them. Not when the mining boom is over. And definitely not until the oil prices rebound, or some other sectors pick up enough slack.

Seriously, everyone's looking at this in far too magnified level, i.e. what's the rate by tonight? There is nothing wrong with making 5-10 percent per annum rather than 500%. If someone sold AUD 1 year ago, they would have made a tidy 19% pre-tax. Unfortunately, most of us, including myself have fallen for the forex trap in the past...
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  • #93,252
  • Oct 28, 2015 8:43pm Oct 28, 2015 8:43pm
Quoting samgrey
{quote} At the start of 2015, the rates were around 80 cents when RBA first cut. Then it dropped to 75 cents around the 2nd quarter. Then, it jumped right back up to 80 cents. Then it started dropping back to 75 cents and then dropped to below 70 cents around September. Then it jumped back up to 73 cents. Now it's back at 71 cents. AUD hit its peak against the USD in September 2013. Since then, it's been dropping. Do you think it will stop dropping? Not when the RBA is more likely to cut rates rather than raise them. Not when the mining boom is...
Good long term analysis in hindsight but it could have gone the other way had things panned out differently. Commodities not fallen, not China easing etcI was selling at the start of the year, now I'm buying. At this point in time with all the cards dealt this pair pushing back towards .74-.75 is not out of the question. If rba or us central bank or China does something otherwise i might change my sentiment. I've made 100% this year. Based off what I think sentiment is at that time. My trades are generally not for 1 or 2 months rather 5 - 50pips.If I traded to what sentiment is on here, like I said 8 weeks ago everyone was ohhhh .65 - .60 I'd still be waiting. Instead I've made money, now it's falling, rba is holding, yellen is holding. Past had shown me it rises in this situation with spikes down, buy on those spikes down make money have good stops. People getting greedy waiting for these 19% big falls/rises lose unless you have enough margin.
  • #93,253
  • Oct 28, 2015 8:52pm Oct 28, 2015 8:52pm
Quoting redalert
{quote} Good long term analysis in hindsight but it could have gone the other way had things panned out differently. Commodities not fallen, not China easing etcI was selling at the start of the year, now I'm buying. At this point in time with all the cards dealt this pair pushing back towards .74-.75 is not out of the question. If rba or us central bank or China does something otherwise i might change my sentiment. I've made 100% this year. Based off what I think sentiment is at that time. My trades are generally not for 1 or 2 months rather 5...
Hindsight.. Yes. Look, I wasn't pointing at you individually. I've just made losses in forex, despite knowing good long term trends. I am just railing against the short term views peddled on this forum. I have quit forex for good.

I just think on a long term, Australian economy has little going for it. Iron ore prices are unlikely to go up given record production and capacity coming on line in recent months. The only positive is LNG prices are oil linked and when they go up, it'll help some. But, still not enough. Also not enough investment to drive anything stronger in Aus. But yeah, other than a broad bearish view on Australia not much .. As a consequence of living here. It's just that US economy is no where better.
  • #93,254
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:33pm Oct 28, 2015 9:33pm
Quoting Expo33
Hey, where did all of the traders in the 75-76 camp go {image}
maybe burnt the account already
  • #93,255
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:41pm Oct 28, 2015 9:41pm
Quoting mikok730
{quote} maybe burnt the account already
it could really have gone either way last night. a dovish statement accompanied by no cut could easily have sent the aud flying up instead. so those 75c guys just got it bad. the smart ones would have stayed out of the market...like me.. ok, but now's the difficult part. so where are we heading. PA is giving few clues.
  • #93,256
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:44pm Oct 28, 2015 9:44pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} it could really have gone either way last night. a dovish statement accompanied by no cut could easily have sent the aud flying up instead. so those 75c guys just got it bad. the smart ones would have stayed out of the market...like me.. ok, but now's the difficult part. so where are we heading. PA is giving few clues.
A few clues to where?? That's the question???
  • #93,257
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:47pm Oct 28, 2015 9:47pm
Quoting mikok730
{quote} maybe burnt the account already
Im still here but I dont trade unless a good signal. .75 is just a theory until it happens.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #93,258
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:49pm Oct 28, 2015 9:49pm
man, don't tell me its gonna be another day of consolidation just like yesterday. That's just so stale.
  • #93,259
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:56pm Oct 28, 2015 9:56pm
Quoting SkyrEk
man, don't tell me its gonna be another day of consolidation just like yesterday. That's just so stale.
it's irritating for picking an intraday trade isn't it. and simultaneously risky to pick a trend trade to hold since there still is a good case for the AUD to go either direction. grr. think i'll take an early weekend and prep for my flight across the pacific.
  • #93,260
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:56pm Oct 28, 2015 9:56pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} it could really have gone either way last night. a dovish statement accompanied by no cut could easily have sent the aud flying up instead. so those 75c guys just got it bad. the smart ones would have stayed out of the market...like me.. ok, but now's the difficult part. so where are we heading. PA is giving few clues.
I also have no idea, what is your view for NZD/USD? going up or down?
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