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AUD/USD

  • #93,141
  • Oct 26, 2015 10:12pm Oct 26, 2015 10:12pm
Quoting Lionheartfx1
Nice trendline bounce and movement on 15min and 30min on EURAUD....respecting the trendline... Initiated a LONG and expecting 100+ pips on this and stop loss under previous daily candle. Nice price action on that also so it should shoot up.
curious, which trendline was this?

(this is turning into a euraud thread here hehe)
  • #93,142
  • Oct 26, 2015 10:13pm Oct 26, 2015 10:13pm
Quoting renski
1.53000 is a good number to bounce off..
got a pending long at 1.5275, looking for 1.5328.
edit : will cancel if makes a new high before
  • #93,143
  • Oct 26, 2015 10:23pm Oct 26, 2015 10:23pm
Quoting renski
{quote} curious, which trendline was this? (this is turning into a euraud thread here hehe)
Dont worry about it, it was on the 15 and 30min trendline then it cracked and failed and shot up

Yeh well I like movement on EURAUD better since AUDUSD moves like a snail and makes my dick itch watching it.....lol
  • #93,144
  • Oct 26, 2015 10:24pm Oct 26, 2015 10:24pm
Quoting ninja87
{quote} got a pending long at 1.5275, looking for 1.5328. edit : will cancel if makes a new high before
That is a good entry level also for a long.

I have mine waiting around that level with a tight SL.

It will prolly hit 1.54 imo as usual whenever I set a small target it goes over it LOL
  • #93,145
  • Oct 26, 2015 10:29pm Oct 26, 2015 10:29pm
Quoting Lionheartfx1
{quote} That is a good entry level also for a long. I have mine waiting around that level with a tight SL. It will prolly hit 1.54 imo as usual whenever I set a small target it goes over it LOL
I am expecting it to go higher as well, just dont want to get too greedy EU is making a retrace after the drop last week and AU looking to go lower. lets c how it goes.
  • #93,146
  • Oct 26, 2015 10:41pm Oct 26, 2015 10:41pm
Quoting ninja87
{quote} I am expecting it to go higher as well, just dont want to get too greedy EU is making a retrace after the drop last week and AU looking to go lower. lets c how it goes.
Yep. Hit and Run with this pair....take what you can

After it hits 1.55 I don't care if it wants to tumble LOL
  • #93,147
  • Oct 26, 2015 10:50pm Oct 26, 2015 10:50pm
Quoting ninja87
{quote} got a pending long at 1.5275, looking for 1.5328. edit : will cancel if makes a new high before
Nice call on that trade. Already up 23 pips.

Lets see if it can maintain that upward momentum
  • #93,148
  • Oct 26, 2015 10:52pm Oct 26, 2015 10:52pm
Quoting Lionheartfx1
{quote} Nice call on that trade. Already up 23 pips. Lets see if it can maintain that upward momentum
you got in?
  • #93,149
  • Oct 26, 2015 11:03pm Oct 26, 2015 11:03pm
Quoting ninja87
{quote} you got in?
Yep am in and have another open long from bottom l locked in profit.See how it goes.
  • #93,150
  • Oct 26, 2015 11:11pm Oct 26, 2015 11:11pm
Quoting Lionheartfx1
{quote} Yep am in and have another open long from bottom l locked in profit.See how it goes.
  • #93,151
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:04am Oct 27, 2015 12:04am
From price action alone, what i can see is that whenever it gets beaten down by really negative news such as China surprise cut last friday, Shanghai composite decline today, the demand for AUD is still here, prices will be supported in the region of .72 and .7230 where past support and resistance levels are.

FED minutes are likely to be dovish and of course, no rate hike = dovish
Next week RBA likely to hold rate as well = bullish to a certain extent.

What does it makes of AUD?

To me, its a bull.

If you have a different opinion, let me know.
  • #93,152
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:20am Oct 27, 2015 12:20am
I was about to say the same thing Sky.

Fed is about to hold again, and RBA will hold next week. Next week to date is not a good time horizon to be going short IMO. If it breaks below 72 (say to 715) prior to both of aforementioned announcements, I think that would be an amazing opportunity to take some quick longs.
  • #93,153
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:23am Oct 27, 2015 12:23am
Quoting SkyrEk
From price action alone, what i can see is that whenever it gets beaten down by really negative news such as China surprise cut last friday, Shanghai composite decline today, the demand for AUD is still here, prices will be supported in the region of .72 and .7230 where past support and resistance levels are. FED minutes are likely to be dovish and of course, no rate hike = dovish Next week RBA likely to hold rate as well = bullish to a certain extent. What does it makes of AUD? To me, its a bull. If you have a different opinion, let me know.
Yeh I agree BULL long term and BEAR short term.

I wouldnt hold shorts for long just mostly scalping.
  • #93,154
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:30am Oct 27, 2015 12:30am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
I was about to say the same thing Sky. Fed is about to hold again, and RBA will hold next week. Next week to date is not a good time horizon to be going short IMO. If it breaks below 72 (say to 715) prior to both of aforementioned announcements, I think that would be an amazing opportunity to take some quick longs.
Quoting Lionheartfx1
{quote} Yeh I agree BULL long term and BEAR short term. I wouldnt hold shorts for long just mostly scalping.
Thanks guys!

Scalping is good for consolidation, grab some quick pips!

Well, prepare for some huge spikes as we approach FOMC

Cheers!
  • #93,155
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:43am Oct 27, 2015 12:43am
Hi SyrEk,

Fan of your posts and trading info.

A bull until when? It's tracked sideways for a good month or two now.

My opinionis a little different albeit similar, I get the feeling that AUD is a like the place investors put their $ until something happens. Seeing way more big 20-50 pip+ spikes downs than up.

For AUD to be bullish it has had to rely on USD and EUR doing just a poorly, rather than anything good coming from AU's economy.

If USD suddenly had a string of good news .70 and below is easily obtained, USD has had quite a bit of average/below average news and we've only seen .735 max from AUD. Commodities are holding for now.

China has immediate impact on AUD because they're a 'neighbour' and like commodities but that news affects USD just as much which is why there is generally a pull back.

In saying all this, I feel slightly bullish with slight possibility of seeing .75-.76 over the next 6 months (still with many spikes down) why? Because USD is in winter (Yeah I'm linking weather to an economy) I don't see their economy growing rapidly enough to justify their much anticipated rate rise, each time USD hold off, AUD will slowly grow. Commodities will hold here so there is value to be had in AU's relative higher interest rates.

Hopefully this makes sense or is useful to someone. I doubt many people make 6 monthly trades. Personally I trade with sentiment/PA, so I would be buying on these spikes down (like today) and picking up 5 - 20 pips, repeat until it reaches a daily high and wait for the next drop while keeping all of what I have said above in mind. Just trade to your account size and there is plenty of money to be made buying or selling in the short term (intra-day trades).
  • #93,156
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:50am Oct 27, 2015 12:50am
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} {quote} Thanks guys! Scalping is good for consolidation, grab some quick pips! Well, prepare for some huge spikes as we approach FOMC Cheers!
I'm expecting smaller FOMC spikes this time around as there is no press conference scheduled.

Also bear in mind that asx rate tracker is showing 31% probablility of an RBA rate cut next meeting so don't totally dismiss the possibility. Will mean probably some spike upwards if they hold the rate but probably a bigger spike down if they cut.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #93,157
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:53am Oct 27, 2015 12:53am
Quoting redalert
Hi SyrEk, Fan of your posts and trading info. A bull until when? It's tracked sideways for a good month or two now. My opinionis a little different albeit similar, I get the feeling that AUD is a like the place investors put their $ until something happens. Seeing way more big 20-50 pip+ spikes downs than up. For AUD to be bullish it has had to rely on USD and EUR doing just a poorly, rather than anything good coming from AU's economy. If USD suddenly had a string of good news .70 and below is easily obtained, USD has had quite a bit of average/below...

Hi redalert,

Haha, no i don't think i have fans to begin with. I'm just sharing my views to see if other traders here will have similar opinions or differs from me. This allows me to have a more neutral perspective instead of sticking to my own bias all the time.

TBH, i don't set a target for my trades. As long i make money, that is all that matters to me. I don't stick to a single bias as well. If it is consolidation for the whole day like today and yesterday, i will scalp for a few pips and run off with some profits. In short, i'm both a bull and bear.

Long term wise, i wouldn't dare to say this is a bullish trend because on the larger timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly), it is definitely looking like a bear still.

Anyway, the beauty in trading is such that you can be either a bull or bear, but you can still make money. I don't marry my trades as some might think that i do. I get in and get out in quick time. UNLESS i will be away on a roadtrip, then i will most likely initiate a long trade on AU to collect holding costs and probably aim for targets like .74 or .75 as these are likely targets in the near term.

To short this pair, the R&R isn't sweet enough for me to do that.
  • #93,158
  • Edited 1:54am Oct 27, 2015 12:55am | Edited 1:54am
Quoting dab
{quote} I'm expecting smaller FOMC spikes this time around as there is no press conference scheduled. Also bear in mind that asx rate tracker is showing 31% probablility of an RBA rate cut next meeting so don't totally dismiss the possibility. Will mean probably some spike upwards if they hold the rate but probably a bigger spike down if they cut.
Definitely, there is no certainty in the FX markets. Just got to be sure that we take proper risk management in our trades as we can never be sure of anything that can happen in the markets.

Even when most people will think that there won't be a rate hike in October, anything can still happen as FOMC approaches. Since there is no scheduled conference, of course there is a higher probability that there won't be a hike in rate, but the statement accompanying is (if it is bullish) can change the bearish outcome into a bullish one.

In summary, nothing is certain and definite. Just got to play by ear and trade well, minus the noise.
  • #93,159
  • Oct 27, 2015 3:07am Oct 27, 2015 3:07am
AudUsd ====> Sell Stop = 72273 / TP = 72166 / Sl = 72599

if this order open ; set 2* lot size Buy Stop ===> 72599 / TP = 72766 / SL = 72384

GL
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #93,160
  • Oct 27, 2015 3:26am Oct 27, 2015 3:26am
Target 72780
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