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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #14,541
  • Oct 21, 2015 8:50am Oct 21, 2015 8:50am
Quoting Mack2013
I felt like I was missing something and didn't what to make an impulsive trade so I skipped it. oh well... {image}
Always better to be out a trade wishing you were in it, than in a trade wishing you were out!
  • #14,542
  • Oct 21, 2015 8:54am Oct 21, 2015 8:54am
Quoting Mack2013
good morning traders pretty slim pickings out there this morning for me. EURSD is in a tight consolidation area but I don't like the break out strategy for this pair. can't really define support and resistance or create high probability expectations. Don't want to guess either GBPUSD is another situation. I identified a 1 to 1 as soon as I open the charts that respected previous 1 hour structure. There was a lot I liked with this trade but I didn't like that the 1 hour structure was previously not respected (blue line / circled) and I was a little...
Slim pickings indeed.

I have been looking at the Eu all day, but I don't like what I see.

Sit on my hands day for me

Regards
Aj1
  • #14,543
  • Oct 21, 2015 8:55am Oct 21, 2015 8:55am
Quoting ujku80
Hello everyone, I've been following this thread since march this year. I'm still at page 385, so, I'm taking my time with the golden info that's available here. I just stopped for a sec and couldn't resist posting here because I can't thank Mr.Pip enough for everything he did and he is still doing by giving us his knowledge, experience, and being a mentor to me. Seriously, he teaches not only his technique or style (ratio harmonics, PA etc. etc), but he even showed us which broker to use, what platform and even the money management to employ for...
good morning arjan, I would have to agree. I like the short version better tho
  • #14,544
  • Oct 21, 2015 8:55am Oct 21, 2015 8:55am
Quoting honestknave
{quote} Always better to be out a trade wishing you were in it, than in a trade wishing you were out!
indeed.
  • #14,545
  • Oct 21, 2015 8:56am Oct 21, 2015 8:56am
Today has been mostly monopolized with a EU short. I got a good entry (a benefit of being able to trade the London session) but it has really ground since then.
Here is my chart... a working document so excuse the mess.
The bears haven't been too impulsive but they are keeping pressure on price.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,546
  • Oct 21, 2015 9:18am Oct 21, 2015 9:18am
Quoting honestknave
Today has been mostly monopolized with a EU short. I got a good entry (a benefit of being able to trade the London session) but it has really ground since then. Here is my chart... a working document so excuse the mess. The bears haven't been too impulsive but they are keeping pressure on price. {image}
Not to messy. curious tho, what are the gray lines in the background?

BTW, not to be your competition today but I'll be looking to go long at 1.1340 based on structure, decrease in bearish strength, increase in bullish opposition and trend line support. haha. good luck!
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  • #14,547
  • Oct 21, 2015 9:27am Oct 21, 2015 9:27am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Not to messy. curious tho, what are the gray lines in the background?
Those are where my technique differs from this thread
Basically, I keep an eye on pivot points, round numbers, yesterday's high, low and midpoint, and the daily open. In my experience, price reacts to those levels but I know that everyone's mileage varies on such things. Same with the news.

Quoting Mack2013
BTW, not to be your competition today but I'll be looking to go long at 1.1340 based on structure, decrease in bearish strength, increase in bullish opposition and trend line support. haha. good luck! {image}
Haha, no competition! Unless crude oil inventories lights a firework under the bears I'll be out soon enough. If price wasn't managing to hold under the RN I'd be out already.
  • #14,548
  • Oct 21, 2015 9:55am Oct 21, 2015 9:55am
Quoting honestknave
{quote} Those are where my technique differs from this thread Basically, I keep an eye on pivot points, round numbers, yesterday's high, low and midpoint, and the daily open. In my experience, price reacts to those levels but I know that everyone's mileage varies on such things. Same with the news. {quote} Haha, no competition! Unless crude oil inventories lights a firework under the bears I'll be out soon enough. If price wasn't managing to hold under the RN I'd be out already.
I've also found that price reacts at those points but never incorporated in my strategy. tried doing weekly pivot points but got lazy and never finished the backtest.

Entered EU long at 1.1343.... It looks like jumped the gun tho .
  • #14,549
  • Oct 21, 2015 10:47am Oct 21, 2015 10:47am
Quoting Mack2013
Entered EU long at 1.1343.... It looks like jumped the gun tho .
Not sure you did - hopefully you grabbed some of that +25pip move!
  • #14,550
  • Oct 21, 2015 10:50am Oct 21, 2015 10:50am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} I've also found that price reacts at those points but never incorporated in my strategy. tried doing weekly pivot points but got lazy and never finished the backtest. Entered EU long at 1.1343.... It looks like jumped the gun tho .
Boooooo! busted for B/E, well +3 pips. gave a lot back after almost reaching target (3-4 pips away). target was just below the 78.6 level but I guess I should of went with structure. Honestly, with that much strength, I expected it to continue or at the very least retest. Damn, I shouldn't have been so greedy, oh well

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  • #14,551
  • Oct 21, 2015 11:48am Oct 21, 2015 11:48am
Quoting honestknave
{quote} Hi arjan, great to see some fresh faces posting. Looking forward to seeing more charts
thank you honest, much appreciated. I'll try to contribute here, but I still have a lot to learn so, please (to anyone reading this), be careful if you would like to follow me and my trades.

cheers
  • #14,552
  • Oct 21, 2015 12:02pm Oct 21, 2015 12:02pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} good morning arjan, I would have to agree. I like the short version better tho
Good evening Mack, (almost 7 pm here, in Norway btw). Yeah, I agree with you. Somehow I'm more confident to see the market reach those lower levels and then look for long opportunity (if P.A allows of course) than vise versa. Although, I see weakness with the bears right now and wonder if market will reach there.

But, anyway, we're not here to judge where market is going. It's always a "if this happens - then I'll do this" story. Incidentally, I like so much Mr. Pip rules. It's like he literately took a caliper to measure the market and gave precise areas and levels to go short or long. It's just amazing. You can tell from his chart that he's an engineer by profession
  • #14,553
  • Oct 21, 2015 12:51pm Oct 21, 2015 12:51pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Boooooo! busted for B/E, well +3 pips. gave a lot back after almost reaching target (3-4 pips away). target was just below the 78.6 level but I guess I should of went with structure. Honestly, with that much strength, I expected it to continue or at the very least retest. Damn, I shouldn't have been so greedy, oh well {image}
I wouldn't beat yourself up Mack, the entry call was spot on and you came out a few pips richer.

Here is how it played out on a tick chart, it always intrigues me how different the same data looks on different styles of chart (renko, time, tick whatever):
Arrows show the bull play

(yes, I was sweating! )
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  • #14,554
  • Oct 21, 2015 5:34pm Oct 21, 2015 5:34pm
Got to be one of my most tedious trades ever. Never did get the 1:1
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  • #14,555
  • Oct 21, 2015 5:36pm Oct 21, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting ujku80
{quote} thank you honest, much appreciated. I'll try to contribute here, but I still have a lot to learn so, please (to anyone reading this), be careful if you would like to follow me and my trades. cheers
Don't worry arjan, I don't think anyone is posting signals on this thread. It's more a compare and discuss... well, I kinda hope it is
  • #14,556
  • Oct 21, 2015 5:40pm Oct 21, 2015 5:40pm
Quoting Aj1
{quote} Slim pickings indeed. I have been looking at the Eu all day, but I don't like what I see. Sit on my hands day for me Regards Aj1
Did you get anything in the end Aj1? Last couple of days have been odd on EU
  • #14,557
  • Oct 21, 2015 6:35pm Oct 21, 2015 6:35pm
Quoting honestknave
Got to be one of my most tedious trades ever. Never did get the 1:1 {image} {image}
Yeah just looking at my charts now for the day and prepping for tomorrow and see it was a long ranging market in the EURUSD today.

I am certainly seeing some opportunities for me to trade within my times at the moment. Going to continue to review the markets and then make a start next week. I will start to share my actual trades at the end of the day for any critique or just boasting .

Also, going to work smaller TP in the evening trades as the market slows a little and don't want to lose the smaller gains. This may change with more time and actual live trades but I will keep learning/developing and tweaking my trading rules accordingly.
  • #14,558
  • Oct 22, 2015 2:45am Oct 22, 2015 2:45am
Ok, at London open, this is what I was looking at (see image below). But as I was writing in the chart, a nice spike down went like a bolt through what I had considered as PRZ. And as a consequence scenarios changed.
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  • #14,559
  • Oct 22, 2015 2:54am Oct 22, 2015 2:54am
This is how I imagine things now. let's see how this plays out, but I need to see strength and weakness before I can enter. Right now, strength is with the bears (although they seem a bit exhausted).
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  • #14,560
  • Oct 22, 2015 3:55am Oct 22, 2015 3:55am
Quoting ujku80
This is how I imagine things now. let's see how this plays out, but I need to see strength and weakness before I can enter. Right now, strength is with the bears (although they seem a bit exhausted). {image}
Nice analysis

London bears charged out and then got stuck in the mud of previous structure and daily S2.

Having started so strong, it will be very telling if they can't even test 1.1300

However, weekly S1 sits just below 1.1300 which also doesn't bode well for the bears.

Lower highs. higher lows... when it pops it will probably do so quite violently.

I'm leaning towards the bulls winning this one, but not confident enough to put my money on the table

I also see my 1:1 eventually got hit
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