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AUD/USD

  • #92,761
  • Edited 12:26am Oct 15, 2015 12:16am | Edited 12:26am
Quoting alz
{quote} Hi. What is the rationale behind this move? The odds have increased recently for RBA making another cut in a fortnight with Westpac increasing its home loan rates yesterday. So far RBA has been reluctant to cut rates due to booming property prices. The banks might have just given RBA some breathing space to now continue with easing monetary policy further. Employment figures released today don't seem to be good either. So I would like to understand why you think AUD would go as high as 75c as fundamentals show a different picture.
Why would it go as high as 75c? That's only 120 pip higher than its recent high.
Why did it go to .7380? Technical move... oversold market.

It's only a 600 pip correction! Why do people act like that is so significant??
I never said the downtrend was over, it's just by my technical analysis we have put in a major bottom.

The last time we had a double bottom on the weekly chart we rallied 650 pips (in April/May)
Aussie has a tiny population. It's not really about the fundamentals or jobs data, it's about the Central Bank rate.
That's what drives the buying.

2% yield is still quite good. Even if Aussie goes to 65cents that would be the final bottom (by my technical analysis)
and it would probably correct back into 80cents in 2016.

It's just hard for me to trade against the monthly candle.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #92,762
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:17am Oct 15, 2015 12:17am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} No reason? Look at the monthly chart. It's a morning star and we are at the lowest price we have seen in 6 years. I think that is a good reason. I loaded longs at 7220/30.. and add to winning position up until target is reached. Just like there is "no reason" for Aussie to rally from .6000 to 1.1080 in 2009?? Oh wait! Yes there was. It's called an undervalued market. Why did Aussie rally from 8800 to 9700 in 2013? (900 pips) Why did Aussie rally from 8650 to 9500 in 2014? (850 pips) Why did Aussie rally from 7525 to 8160 in April/May of...
Well said.

Finally a smart post.

Longing this pair is a no brainer, its not to say I don't short....I do but its for short ranges and quick scalps.

Higher probability and less stress is for longs. Just saying.
  • #92,763
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:19am Oct 15, 2015 12:19am
Also going against the monthly candle there is no point when its erect and strong like a bulls cock.

Unless the pair shitcans itself halfway down or more in a few days or weeks then maybe a short would be valid.
  • #92,764
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:29am Oct 15, 2015 12:29am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} No reason? Look at the monthly chart. It's a morning star and we are at the lowest price we have seen in 6 years. I think that is a good reason. I loaded longs at 7220/30.. and add to winning position up until target is reached. Just like there is "no reason" for Aussie to rally from .6000 to 1.1080 in 2009?? Oh wait! Yes there was. It's called an undervalued market. Why did Aussie rally from 8800 to 9700 in 2013? (900 pips) Why did Aussie rally from 8650 to 9500 in 2014? (850 pips) Why did Aussie rally from 7525 to 8160 in April/May of...
And then there was silence...

Becareful throwing things like morning star etc around here, you'll have these guys stumped for days.
  • #92,765
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:30am Oct 15, 2015 12:30am
i didn't get out in time before that bloody 50pip drop. caught off guard and it happened so quick.

what happened man?

would have been awesome to cash out and reload the longs. oh well, not gonna close out the positions just yet. ive got 7310 7320 7330 i believe we're still headed to retest the 7350-57 area at least once more today. 100hour ma is still holding up pretty well (the drop got caught by it).

partially agreed with Rag2RichesFX, but given the uncertainty i'm still in favour of watching the key levels and data one at a time.
  • #92,766
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:36am Oct 15, 2015 12:36am
Quoting TheBradzter
ell3, this was when the chinese stock market had that huge crash. AUD/NZD are linked to Chinas success
Thanks! Yeah, was guessing it's got something to do with Chinese stocks.
  • #92,767
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:41am Oct 15, 2015 12:41am
Quoting ell3
i didn't get out in time before that bloody 50pip drop. caught off guard and it happened so quick. what happened man? would have been awesome to cash out and reload the longs. oh well, not gonna close out the positions just yet. ive got 7310 7320 7330 i believe we're still headed to retest the 7350-57 area at least once more today. 100hour ma is still holding up pretty well (the drop got caught by it). partially agreed with Rag2RichesFX, but given the uncertainty i'm still in favour of watching the key levels and data one at a time.

If you really need to know the reason, here it is.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...a-c230065741d5

Rate cut or not, technically i will be a bull as well. Be it whether one is a bull or bear in this pair, as long you profit, that's fine

A bear can still make profits from a 20 pip correction ,vice versa, a bull can make profit from 20 pips upside.

Don't marry to your trade, its not a commitment, it is just an avenue to make money. Enter and get out.
  • #92,768
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:43am Oct 15, 2015 12:43am
Hi All,
Posting here after a long time.
Although I agree with the general move up, there are -Div in 1 hr, 30min and 15min charts. I would feel that the move down would be to re-test the LTL at .7240 ish that is if it breaks down the UTL of break out on the move up at .7266. To confirm the move down it needs to break and stay under .7315 and then .7300.

Furthermore, after the move of the banks yesterday to jack up their interest rates, there is a talk of a rate cut by the RBA next month. So, it could also be buy on news at the moment.

Good Luck.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #92,769
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:52am Oct 15, 2015 12:52am
Rag2Riches - Don't agree on your long-term analysis, the Aussie economy is in very poor shape, and the dollar is primarily driven by the rise and fall of commodities and nothing else.

Rate differentials will become irrelevant in 2016 as the RBA cuts to 1% and possibly lower, as the economy slides into recession, as the Fed will probably raise at least once.
  • #92,770
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:57am Oct 15, 2015 12:57am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Rag2Riches - Don't agree on your long-term analysis, the Aussie economy is in very poor shape, and the dollar is primarily driven by the rise and fall of commodities and nothing else. Rate differentials will become irrelevant in 2016 as the RBA cuts to 1% and possibly lower, as the economy slides into recession, as the Fed will probably raise at least once.
Rag2riches could be right about reaching higher levels. However, it will really depends on individual trading style and risk appetite.

If 1pip = USU 0.10 profit, of course i can just buy and buy, even if prices drop to .70 and go back up to .75, i won't feel the pain.

However, if 1pip= USD$10, USD$100, USD$1000, the pain will be long lasting and of course, margin call and account close out.

Hence, i won't give a judgement call as to prices will reach what levels in the future, unless we are trained to be fortune tellers... but we are all supposed to be traders. We trade.

A 10pips movement may be small to most traders, however, if you are confident about your trading strategy and with sufficient capital, a 10pips movement can mean $100, $1000, $10,000 to a trader.

To each his own.

Have a great trading week!

Can't wait for the weekend!

i need to clear some carbon.
  • #92,771
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:00am Oct 15, 2015 1:00am
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} If you really need to know the reason, here it is. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...a-c230065741d5 Rate cut or not, technically i will be a bull as well. Be it whether one is a bull or bear in this pair, as long you profit, that's fine A bear can still make profits from a 20 pip correction ,vice versa, a bull can make profit from 20 pips upside. Don't marry to your trade, its not a commitment, it is just an avenue to make money. Enter and get out.
i read the article earlier. so cute that an opinion piece can trigger such a move in the market. feels like an overreaction...which means...buying interest with europe opening?
  • #92,772
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:01am Oct 15, 2015 1:01am
All I know is the property market has gone insane , it's way overpriced, and if you think the people at the top will let you own a house worth a million dollars, you are very wrong, something major is going to hit Australia, what effect will that have on the Australian dollar? it's anybody's guess.

The RBA wants to cut rates but can't because of the Property market, so sooner or later something has to give, maybe a bubble?
  • #92,773
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:04am Oct 15, 2015 1:04am
Quoting Vorex
All I know is the property market has gone insane , it's way overpriced, and if you think the people at the top will let you own a house worth a million dollars, you are very wrong, something major is going to hit Australia, what effect will that have on the Australian dollar? it's anybody's guess.

The discounted dollar is helping a lot of overseas investors buy property. This trend only appears to be in Sydney and melBourne.
  • #92,774
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:07am Oct 15, 2015 1:07am
Quoting ell3
{quote} i read the article earlier. so cute that an opinion piece can trigger such a move in the market. feels like an overreaction...which means...buying interest with europe opening?
I certainly hope so. Hahahah! since i have long positions currently.
  • #92,775
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:08am Oct 15, 2015 1:08am
oil average price from sep 15 to oct 15 is 46.46$ and from aug 14 to sep 14 is 43.51$ that shows 7% rising in oil prices with this calculation for most commodity prices we will see a rising pattern because before sep market was ready for sep rate hike and when it does not happened commodity prices raise after that so if my calculation is alright we will see positive numbers for inflation for today.

and if it get positive eurusd will pull back.
  • #92,776
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:16am Oct 15, 2015 1:16am
Quoting Lionheartfx1
Also going against the monthly candle there is no point when its erect and strong like a bulls cock. Unless the pair shitcans itself halfway down or more in a few days or weeks then maybe a short would be valid.
As long as the body is longer than the wick when November opens, its likely that November will be bullish too.
So if the pair stays above .7200 it will favor bulls in November.

I risked $2200 (7225) on this trade and stand to profit about $17000 if we reach to 7500.

Currently in profit about $6500...

For me this is a large position (6 lots).
I know others on this forum trade 50 lots (or more).

Doesn't matter where you begin, all that matters is where you are headed!

It pays the bills, and one day it will make me rich.
However I feel I was given this talent for a reason, and that is not to be rich.
But to make a comfortable living and put the majority of the money to founding my own charity
(because I don't trust other charities to do efficient and meaningful work)

Anyone who dies with much wealth is a filthy sinner.
Best to give it away before you die.
Even better to put it to good use while still alive.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #92,777
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:18am Oct 15, 2015 1:18am
Quoting Vorex
All I know is the property market has gone insane , it's way overpriced, and if you think the people at the top will let you own a house worth a million dollars, you are very wrong, something major is going to hit Australia, what effect will that have on the Australian dollar? it's anybody's guess. The RBA wants to cut rates but can't because of the Property market, so sooner or later something has to give, maybe a bubble?
I have no idea if the bubble in Aussie's real estate is due to true demand or simply a very weak Aussie dollar.

However I would tend to bet it is the latter. When your currency loses 40% of its value, isn't it only natural that prices would rise to compensate?

Would be nice to see a chart of Aussie real estate priced in US dollars to see if the bubble is uncorrelated to A$ decline.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #92,778
  • Edited 1:42am Oct 15, 2015 1:29am | Edited 1:42am
Quoting healer23
I am entering buy AUDUSD ENTRY 0.7240 stop 0.7175 take profit 0.7350, short term stop is 0.7198 and take profit 0.7300
I hope many of you followedme yesterday
Quick buy opportunity on EURJPY take profit ENTRY 136.50 TP 136.80 STP 136.10
You may enter lower than 136.50 same stop more profit wish you success
  • #92,779
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:38am Oct 15, 2015 1:38am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Rag2Riches - Don't agree on your long-term analysis, the Aussie economy is in very poor shape, and the dollar is primarily driven by the rise and fall of commodities and nothing else. Rate differentials will become irrelevant in 2016 as the RBA cuts to 1% and possibly lower, as the economy slides into recession, as the Fed will probably raise at least once.
Yes, if such is the case then Aussie will be basically worthless to hold and could fall much more. If yield was only 0.25%...

However, even the EURUSD rallies when it is oversold, and it doesn't yield anything.

I hold a contrarian view. I don't think RBA will cut rates anymore than 1.5% and I don't believe the FED will hike.
I actually believe the FED will initiate QE4 and this will stimulate buying of all currencies and assets.

I'm going against the grain. However this is all irrelevant to me as I just trade what I see on the chart and that works very, very well.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #92,780
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:42am Oct 15, 2015 1:42am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} As long as the body is longer than the wick when November opens, its likely that November will be bullish too. So if the pair stays above .7200 it will favor bulls in November. I risked $2200 (7225) on this trade and stand to profit about $17000 if we reach to 7500. Currently in profit about $6500... For me this is a large position (6 lots). I know others on this forum trade 50 lots (or more). Doesn't matter where you begin, all that matters is where you are headed! It pays the bills, and one day it will make me rich. However I feel I was...
At ~ 5.5 lots here longing AU expecting ~ 13k
Hats off too on charity As i currently work with students with a decent amount of proceeds from my Fund and have a seat on the board of a couple Universities in the Northeastern US and Interestingly I accumulate more wealth going this route... Nice to see there are likeminded people on this forum
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