The Club!

Ye indeed, however from all countries in the world USA is the least to wory about increasing debt to GDP, due to petrodollar reserve currency which is backing its debt on future to future basis. Thats why numbers at the moment are totaly un-repayable at staggering 70+ trillion total and yet IOUs and Tbills keep rocking on. 100 trillon will not make any significant change as long as they grab Syria and Iran afterwards, while for most other countries difference would be significant/if not counting propelered QE. Plus to see how serioues they are about protecting petrodollar look at current madness where they gave green light for NATO planes to start shooting down Russian fighters if needed. I say they will never give up on Syria, even if retrating for a year they will come again. Giving up on it means USA empire goes bye bye in future 20 years when gas pipelines start to expand over oil petrodollar importance.

Hopefully EU gets 1430 i wouldnt mind searching for shorts there. Or a fbo with HH 1470 is also ok. Low risk shorts only, not sure what to say about higher TF structural views.

https://www.rt.com/news/318536-mh17-...-dutch-report/

as we have discussed here several months ago:

it was sot down by BUK missile, and the very question, why the Ukrainian airspace was not closed already.....

https://www.rt.com/news/318545-isis-...nition-russia/

ISIS lost most of its ammunition & heavy vehicles in Russian airstrikes – military

Putin Calls US, Allies "Oatmeal Heads" On Syria

The Fukushima Wasteland: "Terrifying" Drone Footage Of Japan's Abandoned Nuclear Exclusion Zone

All in all the situation / structure in EU is not very clear from the 1.60 high years ago. So literally all kind of things can happen. I will try to publish a chart tomorrow.[/quote]

Thanks for the explanation Infinitus. Appreciate it a lot. Yes i am also in favour of the leading diagonal and a deeper wave 2 correction.

Whatever you are doing in the French Alps, have loads of fun!!! but do take alittle time to post some charts for the explanation that you have mentioned in your post.
Thanks

Thanks for the explanation Infinitus. Appreciate it a lot. Yes i am also in favour of the leading diagonal and a deeper wave 2 correction. Whatever you are doing in the French Alps, have loads of fun!!! but do take alittle time to post some charts for the explanation that you have mentioned in your post. Thanks[/quote]


Hi StringFx,

I am climbing the Grande Casse and the Grand Bec in the Vanoise National Parc. Unfortunately have now poor weather conditions.

Have very poor and limited Internet access. Am at the moment not able to establish secure connection to my broker and thus charting program. Will see what I can do.

Upmove of EU keeps being corrective in my view.

critical level ... 1.1460 broken...

but still within the range in August

1.18xx is a ret fibb target...

M chart with fibb

Last days were funny - I saw so many NORM targets of various prophets getting busted - and still people seem to believe on what they write......

Do not be cruel and enjoy the Vanoise

it is not only the NORM thing - it is the boldness of some people thinking that they new more than others, or pretending to be right all the time(and at the same time ridiculing people with other opinion). I am so fed up with this shit......

How are things going, Lavanda? Hope all is well.......

EU monthly

Big picture:

EU has formed an up-sloping channel since some decades. Also price has formed a down-sloping channel since the 1.6x high a few years ago.

Price is now near both of the lower channel lines and seems to be consolidating there since months.

Is price recharging momentum here in order to break the lower channel lines to the downside, or do we go way up?

From a fundamental perspective, me thinks, we would need to see rising rates in US, or more aggressive easing in the Euro zone in order to see a further decline of EU.

When we were near the low, extremely many people were calling for parity and below. Now, after 1000 pips of rise, we only hear people betting, that a rate hike in US this year will not happen, or calling outright for more QE and Helicopter money.

Interesting thing is, that one can read/hear often now, that there would be too much bullishness in USD. I think that this is not true, because data shows that there are around 76% EU bulls (yes, this value jumped over 10%-points today) and only 15% USD bulls left (this one declined today by over 10% points).

We may go further up a bit, because when looking at the positioning data of the various retail broker outlets one gets the impression, that the majority of retail trader is heavily short. Maybe we need a further wash out here

For me it seems to be clear, that the US will be the first to hike rates. Only question is "when". So we should have in mind, that when US does not hike this year, we may be eventually in for some prolonged time of sideways/mildly up-ways pattern.

When you look at the following chart, I have labelled the big sideways pattern after the 1.6x high as triangle in the middle. We can easily come up with other solutions, like big ABC-pattern or 1-2, 1-2 etc. movements.

I think I have discussed the various variants in the past ad nauseum and there is nothing more to add. The pattern is not clear and open to multiple interpretations.

Funnily enough, when you fib out some fib-extensions in this pattern like I did on the chart, the IDEALIZED NORM moves again got busted and failed their idealized targets (see from the 1.6x top and below).

Hi mad,

long time no see no hear. How are things going?

Looking at many EW counts, especially of some bastardized versions, one can see, that often very tiny movements are labelled as higher degree waves.

I am curious about this, because some small movements may be due to "white noise". How often can we witness, that at some time movements are crystal clear and at other times not. Often enough we simply have to wait until social mood is reflected in the structure of price so that we can label it with high confidence.


The labelling of those tiny waves is a problem of price and time.


Maybe some Mathematician like D.P. can help me out here:

would there be an easy way to determine on a given time-frame to calculate the pip-span of white-noise?

Thanks in advance for all answers

Hi Infinitus, im here almost evryday, just visiting couple treads, im staying invisible for the public just an observer looking for the grain of wisdom from certain people , but you guys climbing mountains nobody here almost dead

EU

Mid term view (let us look down from the 3993 high

weekly TF

Variant A

This was my main count for some time. Wave red 5 is the distance of 1.61x wave 1-3. Wave 5 is extended.

After an extended wave 5 the following corrective wave does often go back to the subwave 2 of the extended wave 5, AND, the correction after 5th wave extension is most of the time sharp.

The subwave 2 is in the 1.25 region. The corrective movement since the bottom is not sharp. It is very overlapping and more kind of sideways.

The rest of the waves do fib poorly. That is the main reason I put this count only on my alternative count list.

EWI is currently showing this count. Strangely enough they seem to be ignoring the things Elliott, Prechter and Frost wrote down about waves following 5th wave extensions. EWI is playing the scenario, that we have finished an impulsive wave A at 1.04 (with an extended 5th wave) and are now in wave B up (which they thought to be finished days ago) http://my.elliottwave.com/resources/...rader-Mag.aspx

EU

Mid term view (let us look down from the 3993 high)

weekly TF

Variant B

This is my main count, actually. The fib-interrelationships inside of the waves down is exceptional well. I wrote about it here months ago.

But more and more this count gets into trouble because wave 4 gets longer and longer. Wave blue 2 is short (time wise) and does not retrace deeply. Since EWP is calling for wave alternation, we would expect wave 4 to be long (time-wise) and/or retracement deeply.

But more and more wave 4, out of my view, gets too big in relation to wave 2, maybe........

Impulses vs. incorrect labelled ABC movements

from EWP: