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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #137,281
  • Edited 1:14pm Oct 13, 2015 12:32pm | Edited 1:14pm
GBPJPY Daily
Location- retrace 50% and minor resistance, two entry: at break and at 50% pullback.
I will be glad of your critique.
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  • #137,282
  • Oct 13, 2015 12:40pm Oct 13, 2015 12:40pm
Hi All,

For my learning purposes, can anyone give me some advice on where they think my trade below may go please. I bought it as an IB.

Firstly my reasons for taking the trade....
1. Twice it had hit the T/L (resistance).
2. General downtrend.
3. The T/L is at a BRN (125.000) which i figured was additional resistance.
4. The IB was bearish.

As you can see, shortly after i entered the price has retraced all the way back to the T/L and i am now 80 pips in the hole.
Have i missed something?

Cheers, Bill
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  • #137,283
  • Oct 13, 2015 12:55pm Oct 13, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting Bill618
Hi All, For my learning purposes, can anyone give me some advice on where they think my trade below may go please. I bought it as an IB. Firstly my reasons for taking the trade.... 1. Twice it had hit the T/L (resistance). 2. General downtrend. 3. The T/L is at a BRN (125.000) which i figured was additional resistance. 4. The IB was bearish. As you can see, shortly after i entered the price has retraced all the way back to the T/L and i am now 80 pips in the hole. Have i missed something? Cheers, Bill
Bill, first of all, your IB is right above PPZ. Secondly, I disagree with your choice of trendlines.
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1.02^200
  • #137,284
  • Oct 13, 2015 1:15pm Oct 13, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting Alex2877
GBPJPY Daily Location- retrace 50% and minor resistance, two entry: at break and at 50% pullback. {image}
I'm in this trade too) There is also weekly s/r above PB tail if you look at weekly chart.
Decided to play only on break of PB. Closed half of my position, when price reached R:R 1:1 & moved to BE.
  • #137,285
  • Oct 13, 2015 1:18pm Oct 13, 2015 1:18pm
Quoting d5400
{quote} Bill, first of all, your IB is right above PPZ. Secondly, I disagree with your choice of trendlines.
Thanks d. As soon as i posted and looked back at my chart, i immediately saw the PPZ you mentioned, basically where my green sell line is (Doh!). Wrong spot to enter!

BTW, there was another reason i took the trade but forgot to mention and that was it looks to be in a box and it's at the top of that box waiting to move down. I still have hope for this trade, at least to get me back to evens

As far as the T/L is concerned, it seems peeps charts can be quite different. The chart below has my T/L on it which starts at the higher point and yours (the shallower one). It seems it's a case of pick a spot, draw a line, hope for the best!

Bill
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  • #137,286
  • Oct 13, 2015 1:24pm Oct 13, 2015 1:24pm
Quoting Bill618
Hi All, For my learning purposes, can anyone give me some advice on where they think my trade below may go please. I bought it as an IB. Firstly my reasons for taking the trade.... 1. Twice it had hit the T/L (resistance). 2. General downtrend. 3. The T/L is at a BRN (125.000) which i figured was additional resistance. 4. The IB was bearish. As you can see, shortly after i entered the price has retraced all the way back to the T/L and i am now 80 pips in the hole. Have i missed something? Cheers, Bill {image}
1. TL incorrect. you need two swing points prior to your Signal bar.

2. you shorted right into those 3 bar highs which would very likely act as support now.

These are just my observations , they are no facts by any means. Price can still break the support and go down south.

When any setup fails , there is no exact reasons. Just possible reasons which may not hold on the very next similar setup. There are no certainties in this business and don't look for them. you are always trading probabilities.

All you can do now is wait and watch. if price breaks the top of IB and take your sl and you simply move on to the next setup.
  • #137,287
  • Oct 13, 2015 1:30pm Oct 13, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting Bill618
Hi All, For my learning purposes, can anyone give me some advice on where they think my trade below may go please. I bought it as an IB. Firstly my reasons for taking the trade.... 1. Twice it had hit the T/L (resistance). 2. General downtrend. 3. The T/L is at a BRN (125.000) which i figured was additional resistance. 4. The IB was bearish. As you can see, shortly after i entered the price has retraced all the way back to the T/L and i am now 80 pips in the hole. Have i missed something? Cheers, Bill {image}
CHFJPY Daily. You're certainly looking in the right spot, top of a box, BRN, a nice large OB like the one arrowed would have fitted the bill nicely. You've always got to be weary of previous bars and where they are stopped, especially a group of highs there finding resistance. As Mike says these boxes often have S & R areas in the middle. One to keep an eye on.

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  • #137,288
  • Oct 13, 2015 1:35pm Oct 13, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting zamfir
{quote} 1. TL incorrect. you need two swing points prior to your Signal bar. 2. you shorted right into those 3 bar highs which would very likely act as support now. These are just my observations , they are no facts by any means. Price can still break the support and go down south. When any setup fails , there is no exact reasons. Just possible reasons which may not hold on the very next similar setup. There are no certainties in this business and don't look for them. you are always trading probabilities. All you can do now is wait and watch. if...
Re: your point number 1 - I didn't know that a T/L is drawn from the two previous swings. Mine is from three back so it appears it could still move significantly higher.
Re: you point number 2 - I now see this. Why i didn't see this initially is beyond me. I have alot to learn.

Thanks z....
  • #137,289
  • Oct 13, 2015 1:39pm Oct 13, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting alphac
{quote} CHFJPY Daily. You're certainly looking in the right spot, top of a box, BRN, a nice large OB like the one arrowed would have fitted the bill nicely. You've always got to be weary of previous bars and where they are stopped, especially a group of highs there finding resistance. As Mike says these boxes often have S & R areas in the middle. One to keep an eye on. {image}
Yes alphac, can't believe i didn't see these in the larger picture. Must be my lack of sleep this week
  • #137,290
  • Oct 13, 2015 1:54pm Oct 13, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting Bill618
{quote} Thanks d. As soon as i posted and looked back at my chart, i immediately saw the PPZ you mentioned, basically where my green sell line is (Doh!). Wrong spot to enter! BTW, there was another reason i took the trade but forgot to mention and that was it looks to be in a box and it's at the top of that box waiting to move down. I still have hope for this trade, at least to get me back to evens As far as the T/L is concerned, it seems peeps charts can be quite different. The chart below has my T/L on it which starts at the higher point...
Have to again respectfully disagree with you on TL's in general. We want to rely on hope as little as possible. I recommend reading "The New Science of Technical Analysis" by Thomas DeMark for strict rules for drawing TL's. Anyway, even if we go by your TL, the sentiment was up.
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1.02^200
  • #137,291
  • Oct 13, 2015 3:00pm Oct 13, 2015 3:00pm
Yeah i understand the whole 2-swing-trend-line setup now. Knowing that now i would never have taken that trade, even allowing for my mistake of not seeing the T/A just below my short entry.

On to the next one....

Thanks d and thanks z for that T/L information. Very important to know.

Bill
  • #137,292
  • Oct 14, 2015 12:02am Oct 14, 2015 12:02am
Quoting antisystem
{quote} I'm in this trade too) There is also weekly s/r above PB tail if you look at weekly chart. Decided to play only on break of PB. Closed half of my position, when price reached R:R 1:1 & moved to BE.
Thanks Antisystem, very important notice about weekly chart. Still hasitate about entry way - 50% correction gives best R/R, but dosnt save from wrong trades, breakout saves from wrong trade, but gives worse R/R. I have made some backtesting (only PB) and found that, 50% correction entry gives R/R 1 to 2 in most cases ( 60-70%), even if you are not so hypercritical in setups selection.
  • #137,293
  • Oct 14, 2015 5:08am Oct 14, 2015 5:08am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} Yes, coz we were in clear downtrend. So sometimes PA bars won't touch your planned PPZ exactly. Sometimes they breach , sometimes they touch to the pip and sometimes they gap. you need to see if another line(TL,PPZ) is also coming into play. PA sometimes reacts strong on both PPZs or TLs at your planned area, but we only see PPZs and ignore.
Zamfir, will you enter if there's good PA in harmony with the trend at a PPZ (but no confluence simply a level ) or you will only enter with a confluence ? Need more explanation on the bold one. thanks
  • #137,294
  • Oct 14, 2015 5:30am Oct 14, 2015 5:30am
SGDJPY 4HR, approaching top of box. Just wait for price action when it gets there, set an alert and go have a life.

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GBPAUD 1HR, if you want to trade the smaller timeframes you still don't have to watch the screen, set alerts at the S & R levels.

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  • #137,295
  • Oct 14, 2015 5:51am Oct 14, 2015 5:51am
Quoting xerogame
{quote} Zamfir, will you enter if there's good PA in harmony with the trend at a PPZ (but no confluence simply a level ) or you will only enter with a confluence ? Need more explanation on the bold one. thanks
yes i will go with a trend. If i get a PA on just a TL in the direction of trend i will take it. If confluence is there great , if not no matter. What matters is the underlying trend.

Let me give you a simple tip that may help you. When you open a chart, first you look is if there is a trend or not. If there is a clear trend , you will be able to draw a TL and then you add your PPZs/fibs and PA for entering. if you cannot draw a TL , then there is no clear trend and market is ranging. In range , try to DEFINE the range with best PPZs and enter/exit off those.

e.g my GBPCAD trade, you can see its clearly a range.

1. Support @ 9800 level.
2. Divergence.

Now BE as we approach trouble area.

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Can't find a good live example of trend trade setup. Will post if i find one.
  • #137,296
  • Oct 14, 2015 11:00am Oct 14, 2015 11:00am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} yes i will go with a trend. If i get a PA on just a TL in the direction of trend i will take it. If confluence is there great , if not no matter. What matters is the underlying trend. Let me give you a simple tip that may help you. When you open a chart, first you look is if there is a trend or not. If there is a clear trend , you will be able to draw a TL and then you add your PPZs/fibs and PA for entering. if you cannot draw a TL , then there is no clear trend and market is ranging. In range , try to DEFINE the range with best PPZs and...

Hi Zamfir,

it is good topic. Ive got question to this. I was studying your charts and there is situation I marked in the attachment. I marked TLs and three outside bars with numbers 1, 2, 3. You didnt take any of these and I was wondering why. (You take IB afterwards and it was success).

There was break of first and second outside bar down and up to their directions.

I understand why is not traded third of them, because we were very close to 0.7 number and there was not break anyway.

Thanks for answer, it will help me to improve.
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  • #137,297
  • Oct 14, 2015 11:15am Oct 14, 2015 11:15am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} yes i will go with a trend. If i get a PA on just a TL in the direction of trend i will take it. If confluence is there great , if not no matter. What matters is the underlying trend. Let me give you a simple tip that may help you. When you open a chart, first you look is if there is a trend or not. If there is a clear trend , you will be able to draw a TL and then you add your PPZs/fibs and PA for entering. if you cannot draw a TL , then there is no clear trend and market is ranging. In range , try to DEFINE the range with best PPZs and...
Excellent summary.
The original questioner should then practice a few set ups to set the approach firmly in his mind.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #137,298
  • Oct 14, 2015 11:54am Oct 14, 2015 11:54am
Quoting wellard
{quote} Hi Zamfir, it is good topic. Ive got question to this. I was studying your charts and there is situation I marked in the attachment. I marked TLs and three outside bars with numbers 1, 2, 3. You didnt take any of these and I was wondering why. (You take IB afterwards and it was success). There was break of first and second outside bar down and up to their directions. I understand why is not traded third of them, because we were very close to 0.7 number and there was not break anyway. Thanks for answer, it will help me to improve. {image}...
I did not take them because they did not come on my planned locations(PPZs/TLs).

Plan your locations in advance and then expect to see a PA. if you look for every PA for reversal , you are going to get lots of bad setups.

When you get a PA , it indicates POSSIBLE reversal. But why is the POSSIBLE reversal coming? Is it because of PPZ/Confluence/TLs/BRNs. The PA bar in the setup should make sense. Look at the surrounding Price action to make sense of what the market is doing(Trending/ranging/Breaking out/Breakout fail)...
  • #137,299
  • Oct 14, 2015 12:04pm Oct 14, 2015 12:04pm
GBPUSD DAILY at 1.55, has been a significant S&R area.

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  • #137,300
  • Oct 14, 2015 12:55pm Oct 14, 2015 12:55pm
Two loosing trades with j16 method.
Failed pin and failed IB.
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