A good 1to1, taken today, we now expect a bounce at 38%.
Cheers
Cheers
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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
- #14,485
- Oct 13, 2015 8:56am Oct 13, 2015 8:56am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
Looking at this on the EURUSD 5 min
I'm unsure if price will break below 1.1370 tho. there seems to be some strong buying pressure in that area
I'm unsure if price will break below 1.1370 tho. there seems to be some strong buying pressure in that area
- #14,487
- Oct 13, 2015 9:19am Oct 13, 2015 9:19am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
{quote} Hi Mack, I'm in short on EU. From my perspective: {image}
yeah, I wish i got in short as well. I spotted the rejections at the 1.14 RN but with the slightly bullish trend and recent bullish strength my expectation was for the barrier to fail so I was waiting for the pullback after the breakout..... I was to slow to change my bias and missed the opportunity
PS : Nice bank so far I hope it goes down a little more and decelerates.
- #14,489
- Oct 13, 2015 9:33am Oct 13, 2015 9:33am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} Good morning honestknave yeah, I wish i got in short as well. I spotted the rejections at the 1.14 RN but with the slightly bullish trend and recent bullish strength my expectation was for the barrier to fail so I was waiting for the pullback after the breakout..... I was to slow to change my bias and wished the opportunity PS : Nice bank so far I hope it goes down a little more and decelerates.
There were quite a few barriers nestled way with the RN at 1.14 (yesterday's high, monthly resistance).
In the short term, there was some bullish strength running into 1.14. However, viewed as a whole retracement the bullish move was weaker than the previous bearish move.
It is now hitting 1:1 at yesterday's low. I'm going to hang on a little bit more... with the bears in control it would be strange if they couldn't even manage a test of 1.135 having got this far.
- #14,491
- Oct 13, 2015 9:34am Oct 13, 2015 9:34am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
Hello Traders Eur 1 min Took this short, price had made a NSH, with increased momentum, so I was a managed it aggressively. {image}
- #14,492
- Oct 13, 2015 9:40am Oct 13, 2015 9:40am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} Honest you are man. I have to ask how do you hold onto your trades so long The slightest pull back and I get the nervous about giving my hard earned money back. I wish I could hold onto my trades as long as you Regards Aj1
Generally speaking, I try to find a good reason to exit beyond fear and/or greed.
The same way I wouldn't enter a trade only because I see weakness (I'd want confluence), I apply the same logic to exits. Weakness isn't necessarily enough. I'd want the exit to be at a place where I could imagine the market to logically turn again.
But it burns me sometimes, for sure. Always hurts to give back pips
- #14,493
- Oct 13, 2015 9:48am Oct 13, 2015 9:48am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
{quote} Personally, I hope it goes down a lot more and accelerates
In the short term, there was some bullish strength running into 1.14. However, viewed as a whole retracement the bullish move was weaker than the previous bearish move.
yeah, your definitely right on that one. PA gave me amp time to enter. oh well.
Personally, I hope it goes down a lot more and accelerates
good luck as always. I hope your right. at least somebody gets some dollars out on this one
- #14,494
- Oct 13, 2015 9:53am Oct 13, 2015 9:53am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
{quote} In fairness, I can be guilty of holding on to trades for too long. It's something I'm working on. Generally speaking, I try to find a good reason to exit beyond fear and/or greed. The same way I wouldn't enter a trade only because I see weakness (I'd want confluence), I apply the same logic to exits. Weakness isn't necessarily enough. I'd want the exit to be at a place where I could imagine the market to logically turn again. But it burns me sometimes, for sure. Always hurts to give back pips
well said. I'm on the opposite of that spectrum. Most of the time I exit to early when I should of held on. as you said before , exits are much more difficult .do you find that the sacrifice of your win/lose ratio actually is counter balanced by your higher average win? Or do you think you would be more profitable if you traded the other way?
- #14,495
- Oct 13, 2015 10:59am Oct 13, 2015 10:59am
yep, have to agree, i can't let a trade a run to save my life.
been trying to follow honest's example and let trades run, (thats why i love this thread, different perspectives and great info). its my one big weak area and i'm pretty sure it's the one thing that will take me from consistently break even(ish) to consistently profitable. Still, more practice and i'm sure it will come for us guys in the end.
Took 7 pips, but there were 30 up for grabs.
been trying to follow honest's example and let trades run, (thats why i love this thread, different perspectives and great info). its my one big weak area and i'm pretty sure it's the one thing that will take me from consistently break even(ish) to consistently profitable. Still, more practice and i'm sure it will come for us guys in the end.
Took 7 pips, but there were 30 up for grabs.
- #14,496
- Oct 13, 2015 12:58pm Oct 13, 2015 12:58pm
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts
yep, have to agree, i can't let a trade a run to save my life.
GL,
Matt.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
- #14,497
- Oct 13, 2015 3:01pm Oct 13, 2015 3:01pm
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} do you find that the sacrifice of your win/lose ratio actually is counter balanced by your higher average win? Or do you think you would be more profitable if you traded the other way?
I'd say I've been guilty of both scenarios, although the former worries me far more than the latter and is consequently the one I try to avoid.
Case in point was not closing that EU trade at the 1:1 (which actually just missed by a pip or so, but nevertheless I believed price would attempt a proper test of the RN which never came). It is gutting to give back pips, but that is quite different to losing pips.
Because I don't have fixed TP in the sense of "I always exit at the 50 fib" (or whatever) it is very hard for me to give an objective opinion on whether shorter targets would give me a better return (e.g. exit at the 38 fib). A lack of good stats for comparison is just one of the issues of discretionary trading, I suppose!
I do think that some of my trades would have been better with an exit and re-entry strategy rather than holding the trade through the retrace, but then hindsight is always a wonderful thing
- #14,498
- Oct 13, 2015 3:26pm Oct 13, 2015 3:26pm
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
yep, have to agree, i can't let a trade a run to save my life.
A couple of conflicting adages: 'nobody ever went broke taking a profit' -and- 'run your winners'.
I don't trade UJ (or time based charts), so please bear that in mind but a few thoughts spring to mind... all with the benefit of 20:20 hindsight :nerd:
On the scale of charts I trade, I find that price rarely makes one clean move then reverses direction. It is actually a personal rule of mine that I don't trade single swing moves (if that makes sense). I want to see some form of AB=CD before I look for price to properly change direction.
When I look at your chart, I haven't really seen any bearish retrace on your bullish trade. Your entry was good and price moved up, paused (where were the bears? This was their time!). The bears never appeared and the bulls kept going. You then made your exit at the first bearish candle of note.... there is nothing wrong with that (see adage above: nobody ever went broke taking a profit!).
In isolation, it was indeed a bearish candle; the close was right down at the low of the candle. Not something that a bullish trade wants to see.
However, now put it in context: it only managed to close about half way down the preceding bullish candle's range. To put it another way, it didn't even take out half the strength of the previous candle, let alone make a dent into the almost flawless bullish move since you entered.
To recap: the bears had failed to arrive at the first pause (just above your blue line, the doji/spinning tops), and when they did finally manage a bearish candle they failed to even retest your blue line. So, if you were looking to give your trade some more room you might have considered a break below your blue line for a SL.
All hindsight stuff, which is always easy. Nice work banking some pips - the entry was great
- #14,499
- Oct 13, 2015 3:41pm Oct 13, 2015 3:41pm
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
Also if in doubt, remind yourself of the reasoning for taking the trade and re-evaluate if you think it is changing course. If the initial reason for taking the trade still exists then allow your SL to do the work, otherwise let the trade run.
- #14,500
- Oct 13, 2015 4:20pm Oct 13, 2015 4:20pm
{quote} I used to struggle with this quite a lot early on too. Try watching your trades on higher tf's so not to watch the micro moves that are designed to scare you from a position. Also if in doubt, remind yourself of the reasoning for taking the trade and re-evaluate if you think it is changing course. If the initial reason for taking the trade still exists then allow your SL to do the work, otherwise let the trade run. Have a clear plan for BE levels and 50% stops (or what ever level you choose) to cover positions and it will de-stress your...
Hey Mattsmicro, good to see you back on the thread and thanks for the advice,
truth is tho, that exit was even more embarrsing than you might think, i trade now purely on price action and knew exactly in my mind when i was going to exit, yet my mind takes a back seat more often than it should lol. not having a fixed set of rules for entries, exits or stops, means i have to make the rules on the fly, so discipline is key, but too many times whrn it comes to exits my logical brain goes out the window.Still, practice, practice, practice is the key. Cheers again and hope your still bringing in those pips
