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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,321
  • Oct 13, 2015 2:18am Oct 13, 2015 2:18am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Heyho.... I'm the master of patience now.... don't have one position atm .
hmm... maybe it is fear... like i'm out of market right now just cuz of huge ATR value.....
If you have poor psychology you will struggle
  • #137,322
  • Oct 13, 2015 4:25am Oct 13, 2015 4:25am
Hi All!

My "time-frame based TA" of EurUsd is mixed right now.

Monthly - the same, nothing new - Buy
Weekly - the same, nothing new - Buy
Daily - since yesterday (and since todays new high) - Sell
H4 - since today's low - Buy

So overall:
- Waiting the pair to move higher

But:
- Would not like to buy at current levels

In case of H4 turning to sell - I could imagine short positions (Daily+H4 could send the pair down temporary)
Seems the best strategy is to patiently wait till the pair absorb more seller by heading lower...and seek daily and H4 buy signals in order to catch nice entries.

Have fun all!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,323
  • Oct 13, 2015 5:50am Oct 13, 2015 5:50am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes. {quote} Yes and for this week inflation is the play of the week no discussion about it. {quote} Yes. ---- ---- ---- --> The map is clear since a few weeks ago. The easiest way to 'translate & understand it' in technical terms is in number of FED meetings to first hike with your Fundamental Chart next to it. Basically bulls have a very limited time to break 1.148x (before Oct FED otherwise odds will plummeted ). Just from the FA rates side: ---> In broad terms and bastardising fundamentals: From the FA chart, 1.148x was [early this year]...
awesome, i added all that to my charts. it does make sense, thank you once again practically seems like nothing to do till the inflation numbers
  • #137,324
  • Oct 13, 2015 6:32am Oct 13, 2015 6:32am
Quoting hathor
Hi All! My "time-frame based TA" of EurUsd is mixed right now. Monthly - the same, nothing new - Buy Weekly - the same, nothing new - Buy Daily - since yesterday (and since todays new high) - Sell H4 - since today's low - Buy So overall: - Waiting the pair to move higher But: - Would not like to buy at current levels In case of H4 turning to sell - I could imagine short positions (Daily+H4 could send the pair down temporary) Seems the best strategy is to patiently wait till the pair absorb more seller by heading lower...and seek daily and H4 buy...
In the last 3 weeks, every potential momentum break to the topside has been killed just on time by poor reports to the other side (today German numbers were awful !!!).

It will only take one decent push to clear the top with momentum and put an end to the happy times for micro traders playing the easy range (end of micro range 'indicator trading' so popular around FF is imminent in the next few sessions...so expecting a bloodbath and drama in the boards soon ...je je je )

We haven't have one single short term report aligned to the main legs in a few weeks (thus the endless short term noisy range) and for this week Inflation numbers are the only one to track ...positive numbers and we will see euro testing the low of the range again in no time ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,325
  • Oct 13, 2015 6:41am Oct 13, 2015 6:41am
Quoting sisse
{quote} In the last 3 weeks, every potential momentum break to the topside has been killed just on time by poor reports to the other side (today German numbers were awful !!!). It will only take one decent push to clear the top with momentum and put an end to the happy times for micro traders playing the easy range (end of micro range 'indicator trading' so popular around FF is imminent in the next few sessions...so expecting a bloodbath and drama in the boards soon ...je je je ) We haven't have one single short term report aligned...
So you mean little ladies are picking flowers on the filed, while an enormous combine harvester is coming in their way?
Thanks for the warning, I'll be watchful!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,326
  • Oct 13, 2015 6:46am Oct 13, 2015 6:46am
Quoting hathor
{quote} So you mean little ladies are picking flowers on the filed, while an enormous combine harvester is coming in their way? Thanks for the warning, I'll be watchful!
lol ...thats sounds about right ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,327
  • Oct 13, 2015 6:54am Oct 13, 2015 6:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...
and for this week Inflation numbers are the only one to track
...
Hi Sisse,
Thank you very much for your valuable inputs
Just a questions, which are those ( Inflation numbers) events in the FF calendar ?

Thanks in advance
  • #137,328
  • Oct 13, 2015 7:09am Oct 13, 2015 7:09am
Quoting tomlee
{quote} Hi Sisse, Thank you very much for your valuable inputs Just a questions, which are those ( Inflation numbers) events in the FF calendar ? Thanks in advance
I think its the PPI tomorrow - comes with retail sales at the same time. I think the FED does not use the CPI as the main indicator (however, not absolutely sure!) unlike ECB - which does not mean its useless of course.

If anyone interested: interesting article about the inside of the political/power play/gossip/messed up FED, resp. about the ongoing tiring discussion - I found especially interestinf the Kocherlakota logic behind the NIR.

http://economistsview.typepad.com/ti...licy-bomb.html
  • #137,329
  • Oct 13, 2015 7:13am Oct 13, 2015 7:13am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I think its the PPI tomorrow - comes with retail sales at the same time. I think the FED does not use the CPI as the main indicator (however, not absolutely sure!) unlike ECB - which does not mean its useless of course. If anyone interested: interesting article about the inside of the political/power play/gossip/messed up FED, resp. about the ongoing tiring discussion - I found especially interestinf the Kocherlakota logic behind the NIR. http://economistsview.typepad.com/ti...licy-bomb.html

Don't forget about US CPI on Thursday (& EU CPI on Friday). From what I've read, the FED supposedly prefers the PCE measure of inflation, but CPI is still important, as is PPI.
defense wins championships
  • #137,330
  • Oct 13, 2015 7:28am Oct 13, 2015 7:28am
Quoting seemoore
{quote} Don't forget about US CPI on Thursday (& EU CPI on Friday). From what I've read, the FED supposedly prefers the PCE measure of inflation, but CPI is still important, as is PPI.
hmm, ok, sorry for the confusion tomlee. so there is PCE as the "main one" - see. "In its "Monetary Policy Report to the Congress" ("Humphrey-Hawkins Report") from February 17, 2000 the FOMC said it was changing its primary measure of inflation from the consumer price index to the "chain-type price index for personal consumption expenditures" source: wiki - but this one does not go out this week - I think we get it at the end of OCT for SEP - se we get "just" SEP PPI (14.) + CPI (15.) this week. wonder which one has bigger impact.
  • #137,331
  • Oct 13, 2015 11:40pm Oct 13, 2015 11:40pm
Thanks a lot guys, greatly appreciated.
  • #137,332
  • Oct 14, 2015 5:25am Oct 14, 2015 5:25am
Eyes on US numbers to start the week in currencies and for tomorrow inflation reports potential mover and shaker.

Simple flow expected in the Euro until Europe goes home. 1.141x unlocks 1.153x rather fast to settle the roll on the highs of the 1.14xx handle. Better and overshoots nothing to see till 1.137x unlocking 1.131x for tomorrow news play...

GL all ...here nothing to do, same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,333
  • Oct 14, 2015 12:46pm Oct 14, 2015 12:46pm
Quoting sisse
I am in with remaining very dull longs 1.112x [check] ...and topped up longs for today's play early on Tuesday 1.122x [check]for a soft leg 1.132x [check] and ext 1.146x [check] on top of the final swing targets....
...and I will take that. Clearing 1.147x final target from the FED minutes play (1.122x). Only, the now v. sluggish, final extensions short term swing targets (1.112x) open in case of a homerun till the end of the month...

Quote
Eyes on US numbers to start the week in currencies ...Simple flow expected ...1.141x[check] unlocks1.153xrather fast to settle the roll on the highs of the 1.14xx [check] handle....

Today, no surprises either in the Euro. Simple rides since last week mini break.

As expected after reports we are closing at the highs of the 1.14xx handle for tomorrow very important inflation numbers. Not much to do until then.

Bears lossing the handle (1.149x) is the one to track until the W close as there is ONLY AIR above till 1.164x...

Well done all on board (I know there are a couple at least here) form the short swing and/or the FED Minutes play.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,334
  • Oct 14, 2015 12:49pm Oct 14, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and I will take ....
Hi Sisse , have any short-term over view in gbpusd ?
  • #137,335
  • Oct 14, 2015 1:08pm Oct 14, 2015 1:08pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Hi Sisse , have any short-term over view in gbpusd ?
Yes.Don't touch it. Cable is still by a mile the worst instrument to trade across the board.After last miss in inflation and with the self-inflected jitters on the EU referendum that started this week and will last till next year.... I wouldnt touch sterling in any form or colour....sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,336
  • Oct 14, 2015 1:25pm Oct 14, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes.Don't touch it. Cable is still by a mile the worst instrument to trade across the board.After last miss in inflation and with the self-inflected jitters on the EU referendum that started this week and will last till next year.... I wouldnt touch sterling in any form or colour....sisse
oh , thanks for this .
  • #137,337
  • Oct 14, 2015 1:36pm Oct 14, 2015 1:36pm
Well that was quicker than expected
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  • #137,338
  • Oct 14, 2015 11:06pm Oct 14, 2015 11:06pm
oil average price from sep 15 to oct 15 is 46.46$ and from aug 14 to sep 14 is 43.51$ that shows 7% rising in oil prices with this calculation for most commodity prices we will see a rising pattern because before sep market was ready for sep rate hike and when it does not happened commodity prices raise after that so if my calculation is alright we will see positive numbers for inflation for today.

and if it get positive eurusd will pull back.
  • #137,339
  • Oct 15, 2015 4:37am Oct 15, 2015 4:37am
Silver made a good close yesterday....looking for it to continue up into the mid 16s or higher. I still have a few that suggest it would like to touch ~$12.....saving up extra money to go heavily into some bullion around those prices. Avg entry for physical bullion for me is around $17....I loaded some at $15, but not enough as I was expecting $13 or lower
  • #137,340
  • Oct 15, 2015 5:06am Oct 15, 2015 5:06am
I think even a positive inflation number is bearish for USD because rate hike postpone to 2016
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