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AUD/JPY

  • #1,301
  • Oct 8, 2015 8:08am Oct 8, 2015 8:08am
Quoting alayinizAMK
m5 {image}
let's see how well it works (m15)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_JPY_15 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 18 KB
  • #1,302
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:09pm Oct 8, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} let's see how well it works (m15) {image}
Im in short at 86.65.

At the moment its still looking bit bullish but a reversal should be imminent
  • #1,303
  • Oct 13, 2015 5:23am Oct 13, 2015 5:23am
Looks like the price is retracing to the desired 86.** level.

Some resistance at 87.15 but once thats broken were looking at 86.55 and lower !
  • #1,304
  • Oct 13, 2015 5:28am Oct 13, 2015 5:28am
Should've posted these into this thread...

First was a post last week, suggesting we are about to hit an interim high on Equities and with another move lower:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post8535276

Followed by another post explaining the strong correlation AUDJPY has with Equities, indicating a good short trade for this pair:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post8535813

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post8536819

Keep an eye on Equities, and when trend lines break on higher timeframes such as 1H or 4H on a few of the major indices, then its a great chance that AUDJPY will move lower and is the right time to hit shorts.
  • #1,305
  • Oct 13, 2015 6:10am Oct 13, 2015 6:10am
Quoting PariCovek
Should've posted these into this thread... First was a post last week, suggesting we are about to hit an interim high on Equities and with another move lower: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post8535276 Followed by another post explaining the strong correlation AUDJPY has with Equities, indicating a good short trade for this pair: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post8535813 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post8536819 Keep an eye on Equities, and when...
thanks !

could you share your opinion on the AUD JPY ? what do you think the forcast is for this week / month ?

cheers
  • #1,306
  • Oct 13, 2015 6:15am Oct 13, 2015 6:15am
Quoting brokerbear
{quote} thanks ! could you share your opinion on the AUD JPY ? what do you think the forcast is for this week / month ? cheers
Expecting Equities to grind lower to approximately 20-21 October. If Equities test new lows, then I think AUDJPY could breach 82. Bold statement, but can be done if Equities moves south.
  • #1,307
  • Oct 13, 2015 6:47am Oct 13, 2015 6:47am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Expecting Equities to grind lower to approximately 20-21 October. If Equities test new lows, then I think AUDJPY could breach 82. Bold statement, but can be done if Equities moves south.
82.** is far out but on my chart 85.** could be reached this year ... obviously depending on the equities like you said but in October is see the pair move down to the 86.00 mark.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud jpy.JPG Size: 198 KB
  • #1,308
  • Oct 13, 2015 6:53am Oct 13, 2015 6:53am
Quoting brokerbear
{quote} 82.** is far out but on my chart 85.** could be reached this year ... obviously depending on the equities like you said but in October is see the pair move down to the 86.00 mark. {image}
I trade Dax30 daily, attached is the daily chart, I expect new lows, breaking the lows of 24 August 2015 and 29 September 2015. Check what the AUDJPY pair traded on those dates... 82 is possible in my mind.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 113 KB
  • #1,309
  • Oct 13, 2015 7:05am Oct 13, 2015 7:05am
I see what you mean ! Good point !

Haven't ever touched the Dax though

What you recon this week could bring ... considering the economic calender for the AUD and JPY thats coming up this week
  • #1,310
  • Oct 13, 2015 7:23am Oct 13, 2015 7:23am
Quoting brokerbear
I see what you mean ! Good point ! Haven't ever touched the Dax though What you recon this week could bring ... considering the economic calender for the AUD and JPY thats coming up this week
Hard to say, but I'm expecting Equities to create a new interim low around 20-21 Oct 2015 (mid next week).

So its probably going to take around a week from today for Equities and AUDJPY to hit new lows in my view. Equities tend to move in cycles over several days, and AUDJPY is the perfect pair that reflects the risk-on / risk-off carry trading. So when its risk-off, its time to short this pair.

The only thing that will stop AUDJPY from going lower is if Equities spike higher from here unexpectedly; or BoJ becomes even more dovish, the later I'm not sure of.

Attached is a 1m chart of the Dax for today, as you can see, its bearish, edging lower and well below the 200sma. Looks a bit like the AUDJPY 1m chart for today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 105 KB
  • #1,311
  • Oct 13, 2015 12:58pm Oct 13, 2015 12:58pm
the pair dipped nicely into the 86's today.

I have my TP set at 86.42 & 86.20

Think it will hit this week !
Attached Image
  • #1,312
  • Edited 12:40am Oct 14, 2015 12:27am | Edited 12:40am
Quoting brokerbear
the pair dipped nicely into the 86's today. I have my TP set at 86.42 & 86.20 Think it will hit this week ! {image}
I think it is going lower my friend, but good to take profit! Green pips are better than red ones.

Suggest those that trade this pair to perhaps follow my posts, as I often post views on Equities (mainly Dax30) and are often a lead indicator on this pair.

Alternatively, add some major indices to your watch lists (eg SP500, Nikkei, ASX200, Dax30, FTSE) and check their charts on higher time frames for a break of trend as part of your analysis on trading this pair.
  • #1,313
  • Oct 14, 2015 5:57am Oct 14, 2015 5:57am
TP was hit and I took home a nice profit ! Got a new sell order in and waiting for next week !

keep up the good work pari !
  • #1,314
  • Oct 14, 2015 7:00am Oct 14, 2015 7:00am
You may be interested in this....

ASX200 v AJ
Nikkei v UJ

Very strong correlation last 10-15 years.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ASX200 -Black- v AUDJPY -Green-.png Size: 328 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NIkkei -Black- v USDJPY -Green-.png Size: 288 KB
  • #1,315
  • Oct 23, 2015 2:43pm Oct 23, 2015 2:43pm
Absolute favorite pair to trade. Decent moves throughout the day make it great for those who have jobs and can only trade during a limited time each day. Seems like there isn't much activity on this pair in this thread. Maybe I can stir it up some. I am a scalper by preference so posting trades as they happen may be nearly impossible. Although many of you will think I am crazy, normally I will trade on the 5 second chart. It just suits my style of being impatient. I am a 100% technical trader. I don't really care about the fundamentals. The only time I will stay away is just before big news announcements. Once I am allowed to start a new thread I will start a journal and post all of my trades during the day.
  • #1,316
  • Nov 8, 2015 9:52pm Nov 8, 2015 9:52pm
Price has been pretty much moving in a range. With this week AUD employment change and unemployment rate, we might potentially see some nice move for this pair. My personal sentiment is still bearish on the AUD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy0911.png Size: 90 KB
  • #1,317
  • Nov 22, 2015 3:50pm Nov 22, 2015 3:50pm
Nice clearly defined resistance levels at 90.19 - 90.40 with Daily 200 MA confluence.

PA however doesn't look overbought due to triple bottom and shorts from this level should be closed quickly once in profit.
As always if price moves quickly to this level you have a greater chance of a successful short since this means it gets overbought quickly. If price creeps up to the level
you have a lesser chance of the level holding since by creeping up, price is actually ranging more than trending which means pressure is coiling up for the next up move. You don't need indicators for this. Just use your eyes.

However levels are crisp which makes this level worth watching.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYDaily.png Size: 34 KB
  • #1,318
  • Nov 26, 2015 2:41pm Nov 26, 2015 2:41pm
One can argue for both buy and sell positions in this pair right now. weekly trend definitely bearish but going through a bullish retracement, no one knows how long this will last.
  • #1,319
  • Nov 26, 2015 4:55pm Nov 26, 2015 4:55pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
One can argue for both buy and sell positions in this pair right now. weekly trend definitely bearish but going through a bullish retracement, no one knows how long this will last.
My buy aud/jpy positions are dying off, most likely the temporary retracement have gone cold and we settling back into the main downward trend. It will be interesting to see how the momentum goes
  • #1,320
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:59pm Nov 30, 2015 10:59pm
AJ close to a top, watching AU doing same.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYH4 1Dec15.png Size: 50 KB
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