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Trend Trading System

  • #1,381
  • Oct 6, 2015 12:17pm Oct 6, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting umairsheikh2
Guys have you noticed trend have been changed for AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD. Now it's look uptrend for AUDUSD and NZDUSD; and USDCAD for downtrend on H4 and Daily charts but Weekly chart still long yet (vise-versa). What do you say guys? Especially Rayner? Regards. Umair (Umee)
Hi Umee;

What we are seeing is a gradual shift in the Order Flow that can signal the start of a New Trend.

As more Buy Orders come into the Market and consume the Sell Orders the Market will rise.

Sellers who are later to enter will have their Buy Stops triggered which in turn will push the Market higher again.

This will bring even more Buy Orders to the Market and it's the Sellers Buy Stops being triggered as the market rise that feeds the Buying.

It's only when there are no more Sellers to Buy from that a Bullish Trend comes to an end.

Of course it's visa versa for a Bearish Trend.

We have to remember that the Forex market is a Zero Sum Market for every Buyer there has to be an equal Seller it's the shift in the Buying and Selling Volume that pushes the market Higher or Lower.

Who ever is on the wrong side of the Market (Losers) is providing the Volume to feed the Market as they Liquidate their Losing Positions.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Oct 15 AUD:USD W1 Chart.png Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Oct 15 AUD:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 109 KB
  • #1,382
  • Oct 6, 2015 1:15pm Oct 6, 2015 1:15pm
@Steve,

Bro 'in simple words it means trend has been changed.'
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,383
  • Oct 6, 2015 2:48pm Oct 6, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting umairsheikh2
@Steve, Bro 'in simple words it means trend has been changed.'
Hi Umee;

No, the Primary Trend hasn't changed yet.

Only when the Sellers want to or are forced to Liquidate (Buy) will the Trend really change.

They will be forced to Liquidate (Buy) if the Buying Volume increase to an extent where it consumes any remaining Selling Volume when this happens the market will rise forcing the Sellers to Liquidate.

This rise in the market will trigger more Buy Stops when this starts to happen more Buying Volume will enter the Market as the Market turns Bullish.

The Market will then rise looking for more Selling Volume to feed from only when the Market encounters more Selling Volume then Buying Volume will the market turn Bearish once more.

The Market operates as an Order Processing Machine moving up or down depending on the amount of Buying or Selling Volume present in the Market any one time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Oct 15 EUR:USD W1 Chart.png Size: 138 KB
  • #1,384
  • Oct 7, 2015 2:36pm Oct 7, 2015 2:36pm
With range pullbacks where is it preferable to queue a sell order?
‎
Level with the swing high (so if price trades above it triggers the stops)
middle of resistance area,
or just in front of resistance line to catch price?
  • #1,385
  • Oct 8, 2015 4:15am Oct 8, 2015 4:15am
Quoting DavidApol
Hi fartist, Good video, thanks a bunch! Just curious on why you didn't consider putting a buy limit at the bottom of the range of USDJPY? Thanks!
Hey David,

I didn't like to be long at the low of the range because in the short term the trend is basically towards the downside.

I'll look to long only when bulls are showing strength, and that's by trading above the swing high.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,386
  • Oct 8, 2015 6:37am Oct 8, 2015 6:37am
Quoting OliverG
With range pullbacks where is it preferable to queue a sell order? ‎ Level with the swing high (so if price trades above it triggers the stops) middle of resistance area, or just in front of resistance line to catch price?
I would usually queue it just before the SR area.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,387
  • Oct 8, 2015 6:37am Oct 8, 2015 6:37am
Why a Good Risk to Reward Trade Can Cause You to Lose Money in the Long Run

Inserted Video


fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,388
  • Oct 8, 2015 9:31am Oct 8, 2015 9:31am
Quoting fartist
Why a Good Risk to Reward Trade Can Cause You to Lose Money in the Long Run https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aCMZY-dplU fartist
Rayner then how can we set target? If I am not wrong everybody using at-least 2:1 Risk Ratio here...

I am not seen any member who hold a position here.
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,389
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:23pm Oct 8, 2015 12:23pm
After long time, I am going to post my charts again with new entries. I hope it will be valid entries!

AUDUSD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 115 KB


EURAUD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.png Size: 119 KB


EURNZD



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.png Size: 108 KB


EURZAR

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURZAR.png Size: 118 KB


GBPCAD


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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.png Size: 107 KB


GBPCHF

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF.png Size: 126 KB


GBPUSD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.png Size: 107 KB


NZDUSD


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.png Size: 104 KB


USDCAD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.png Size: 110 KB


USDJPY

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.png Size: 124 KB
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,390
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:24pm Oct 8, 2015 12:24pm
USDSGD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDSGD.png Size: 114 KB


USDZAR

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDZAR.png Size: 111 KB



Regards.
Umair (Umee)
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,391
  • Oct 8, 2015 2:07pm Oct 8, 2015 2:07pm
Hi Umair, thanks for sharing your charts. Like how you've got all three timeframes for easy viewing each trade.
You only enter on H4?
  • #1,392
  • Oct 8, 2015 2:38pm Oct 8, 2015 2:38pm
Quoting OliverG
Hi Umair, thanks for sharing your charts. Like how you've got all three timeframes for easy viewing each trade. You only enter on H4?
Hi Oliver,

I always enter on H4 and occasionally use D1 but it depend on market...
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,393
  • Oct 10, 2015 4:02am Oct 10, 2015 4:02am
Quoting umairsheikh2
{quote} Rayner then how can we set target? If I am not wrong everybody using at-least 2:1 Risk Ratio here... I am not seen any member who hold a position here.
You need to record your trades to know your trading metrics.

From there, can you know whether you have a positive expectancy in your trading method.

This post here would help.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,394
  • Oct 11, 2015 2:41am Oct 11, 2015 2:41am
I thought this was a good post, though not related to trading.

Fixed vs Growth mindset, which one are you?

http://mic.com/articles/89579/scienc...-everyone-else

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,395
  • Oct 11, 2015 3:15pm Oct 11, 2015 3:15pm
Great article Fartist, thanks for sharing your knowledge and motivation..

- Al
Enter Signature
  • #1,396
  • Oct 11, 2015 7:12pm Oct 11, 2015 7:12pm
Quoting Pa007
Great article Fartist, thanks for sharing your knowledge and motivation.. - Al
Hey Al,

Don't mention it, glad you enjoyed em

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,397
  • Oct 12, 2015 6:59am Oct 12, 2015 6:59am
This week's market analysis here...

Inserted Video


fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,398
  • Edited 10:39am Oct 12, 2015 10:28am | Edited 10:39am
Quoting fartist
{quote} You need to record your trades to know your trading metrics. From there, can you know whether you have a positive expectancy in your trading method. This post here would help. fartist
Hi Rayner,

Here is my EXPECTANCY result:

Total Trades = 113
Profit Trades = 64
Loss Trades = 49

Winning Rate = 56.63
Average Size of P = 64

Losing Rate = 43.36
Average Size of L = 49

= (Winning Rate * Average Size of Win) - (Losing Rate * Average Size of Loss)
= (56.63 * 64) - (43.36 * 49)
= 3624.32 - 2124.64
= +1499.68

Am I done this calculation correctly?! And please let me know what do you think about this expectancy result?

Thanks.
Umair (Umee)
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,399
  • Oct 12, 2015 1:44pm Oct 12, 2015 1:44pm
Come on guys share your expectancy result here so everyone can help each other...
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,400
  • Oct 12, 2015 8:29pm Oct 12, 2015 8:29pm
Quoting umairsheikh2
{quote} Hi Rayner, Here is my EXPECTANCY result: Total Trades = 113 Profit Trades = 64 Loss Trades = 49 Winning Rate = 56.63 Average Size of P = 64 Losing Rate = 43.36 Average Size of L = 49 = (Winning Rate * Average Size of Win) - (Losing Rate * Average Size of Loss) = (56.63 * 64) - (43.36 * 49) = 3624.32 - 2124.64 = +1499.68 Am I done this calculation correctly?! And please let me know what do you think about this expectancy result? Thanks. Umair (Umee)
I think it's good results because you have positive expectancy.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
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