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  • #10,961
  • Oct 9, 2015 8:05pm Oct 9, 2015 8:05pm
Long tall Sally - she's built for speed, she got everything that Uncle John needs. So does AMZN - massive IVR jump and dump on a flatline leadin to the ER...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,962
  • Oct 9, 2015 8:20pm Oct 9, 2015 8:20pm
http://screencast.com/t/iO23mgMyJkf

really is this easy if the iv will keep on truckin
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,963
  • Oct 9, 2015 9:09pm Oct 9, 2015 9:09pm
maybe you want to try catch a big move , set diagonals after the ER ----- front/back week iv's are much closer, but they will still crash after the ER
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,964
  • Oct 9, 2015 9:13pm Oct 9, 2015 9:13pm
if the iv crashes 40% (and it might) then the trade's P/L looks like this, and you are just left with the initial credit gained....if AMZN does not move much
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,965
  • Oct 9, 2015 9:18pm Oct 9, 2015 9:18pm
if you ride out the short strikes & they stay safe you are left with a long strangle for 5 days, maybe you get lucky and catch a trending move past the ER/ --- maybe not worth the big risk of the initial set-up?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,966
  • Oct 11, 2015 2:15pm Oct 11, 2015 2:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} tt people did a study on post-ER trends, showed that a big ER up move usually followed by a uptrend, and vice-versa - but I don't remember what "usually" meant - something > 1/2 the time I'm sure.....sooo, definitely ride it and see what you can get back. I have some potential massive gains come Oct opex, but I'm not gonna brag about that, not the cowboy way....just quietly back up the truck and collect my profit tonnage, be on my way, we sure do thank ye.....
on the cowboy way ... . To extend the metaphor: bucking the bronco makes it hard to get a "smooth ride" out of the P&L ... . Hard not to get saddle sore on occasion.

Still not sure whether earnings plays are all that worth it; sometimes, you're on the trail for an awfully long time for a cold can of beans ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,967
  • Oct 11, 2015 4:13pm Oct 11, 2015 4:13pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Still not sure whether earnings plays are all that worth it; sometimes, you're on the trail for an awfully long time for a cold can of beans ... .
I know you don't do diagonals, but I have high hopes for the double diagonal setups I have been showing above - put em on a few weeks before (most of) the iv run up and take em off just b4 the ER - this is something that may just always work. And by "always" I mean certainly sometimes, definitely not never....well, we'll see.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,968
  • Oct 11, 2015 7:09pm Oct 11, 2015 7:09pm
looking at GOOGL for something on the 10/22 ER.....looking for price breaks in the chains & perhaps a cheap vertical
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,969
  • Oct 12, 2015 12:03am Oct 12, 2015 12:03am
dis
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,970
  • Oct 12, 2015 12:30am Oct 12, 2015 12:30am
TSLA kitty, ER's 11/04, 23 dte
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,971
  • Oct 12, 2015 7:17am Oct 12, 2015 7:17am
Looking at /ES Nov 2040/2060 calls... currently at $8.00. I see volume over 500 on them, it seems all of them traded at $8.00.

Interested in selling those spreads... looks like a second balancing day for SnP just under first resistance (Sep FOMC spike).
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,972
  • Oct 12, 2015 7:49am Oct 12, 2015 7:49am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} September was good to me (up 18.4%), but October's starting off a mixed bag. One trade -- that YUM -- could put a dent in my P&L; everything else is shits and giggles. ... .
Nice job ZS, . Everything above 6% per month is very good results in my books, and everything above 10% per month is awesome, IMO.

Quoting ZebraSquirl
... Still not sure whether earnings plays are all that worth it; sometimes, you're on the trail for an awfully long time for a cold can of beans ... .
Yeah, beacuse one bad apple have the ability to just ruin a full basket of good ones... been there. Spent A LOT of time doing Excel tables with hundreds of stocks and its ER's movements, trying to find an edge in all of that. It basically comes to this: If you want to trade Robyn style, i.e. selling strangles, do it small on very large account.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,973
  • Oct 12, 2015 9:42am Oct 12, 2015 9:42am
should be a low-volume day and flatlining equities as the bond market is closed for Columbus Day - flatline doesn't hurt me as I wait for NFLX ER and Oct opex....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,974
  • Oct 12, 2015 10:11am Oct 12, 2015 10:11am
looked at AMZN just a little late for a DD, those O4/O5 legs have gotten too dear as the front week iv has continued to run up, will look at TSLA
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,975
  • Oct 12, 2015 10:19am Oct 12, 2015 10:19am
TSLA problem is fotm put strikes are $5 wide, calls $2.5 wide
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,976
  • Oct 12, 2015 1:14pm Oct 12, 2015 1:14pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Nice job ZS, . Everything above 6% per month is very good results in my books, and everything above 10% per month is awesome, IMO. {quote} Yeah, beacuse one bad apple have the ability to just ruin a full basket of good ones... been there. Spent A LOT of time doing Excel tables with hundreds of stocks and its ER's movements, trying to find an edge in all of that. It basically comes to this: If you want to trade Robyn style, i.e. selling strangles, do it small on very large account.
I shoot for 5% just as a kind of goal, but don't sweat it much if I don't get there ... . The worthwhile volatility comes in spurts, so it's a long time of hand sitting, followed by a flurry of activity. Below average followed by above average months ... . It all seems to even out in the end.

You're right about the earnings; a ton of cash helps ... . You're going to get assigned, like it or not, from time to time, and that's gonna tie up a bit of cash.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,977
  • Oct 12, 2015 1:22pm Oct 12, 2015 1:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I know you don't do diagonals, but I have high hopes for the double diagonal setups I have been showing above - put em on a few weeks before (most of) the iv run up and take em off just b4 the ER - this is something that may just always work. And by "always" I mean certainly sometimes, definitely not never....well, we'll see.....
I'd love to put some of these on ... . My day job (most of which is spent in a truck) isn't ideal for closely managing trades if I have to. Having one full market day a week off from work is good for the mechanical index ETF trades, but not much else ... . This makes closely managing earnings trades problematic, too. Some day, a beach, a lap top, and some sort of fruity alcoholic beverage in hand ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,978
  • Oct 12, 2015 9:32pm Oct 12, 2015 9:32pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'd love to put some of these on ... This makes closely managing earnings trades problematic, too. Some day, a beach, a lap top, and some sort of fruity alcoholic beverage in hand ... .
yep, the diags do take attention if they are moving on your short strike - for instance, I've got VXX $20/19.5 and $20/19 diagonals with short legs out this week, they are a few cents underwater with VXX sliding <$20 today, so I will have to close for a loss Tues unless we get a strong dose of risk-off and the vix runs back up.

well, I knew vix was gonna drop, maybe verts were the better choice......c'est la guerre......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,979
  • Oct 13, 2015 7:08am Oct 13, 2015 7:08am
Quoting The Fool
I've got VXX $20/19.5 and $20/19 diagonals with short legs out this week, they are a few cents underwater with VXX sliding <$20 today, so I will have to close for a loss Tues unless we get a strong dose of risk-off and the vix runs back up......
got a little break and closing these for small profit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,980
  • Oct 13, 2015 10:04am Oct 13, 2015 10:04am
Quoting The Fool
AAPL DD debits $0.11 will give back 2x-5x depending on what the iv does up to the 10/27 ER day
tried to fill this AAPL DD this morning, @ 13c debit, we'll see if I got in late today - I know the calls filled for a 1c debit....Oct5/Nov1 $120/$121 calls and $100/$99 puts, if I recall right
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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