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AUD/USD

  • #92,601
  • Edited 2:53am Oct 11, 2015 2:28am | Edited 2:53am
Fundamentally, AUD looks better now (compared to other risk currencies like NZD & CAD)

A "Strength Indicator" that I've constructed based on fundamental macro data.
Also, fundamentally, it is showing long potential for AUDNZD..

my 2cents worth!

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  • #92,602
  • Oct 11, 2015 3:18am Oct 11, 2015 3:18am
A very good long term buy spotted, will enter long when the market opens and hold it for very long time.
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  • #92,603
  • Oct 11, 2015 4:04am Oct 11, 2015 4:04am
Quoting chinfei
A very good long term buy spotted, will enter long when the market opens and hold it for very long time. {image}
why not? but with a micro lot
  • #92,604
  • Oct 11, 2015 4:43am Oct 11, 2015 4:43am
Quoting chinfei
A very good long term buy spotted, will enter long when the market opens and hold it for very long time. {image}
Yes good point, I think there is another 500-600 pips left in this bull run
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #92,605
  • Edited 5:34am Oct 11, 2015 5:12am | Edited 5:34am
Last Week:

Gold up, Silver up, Iron ore up (over 5%), Oil way way up, basically all stock markets up almost every session, Fed minutes, etc = the perfect storm for a risk on sentiment bull rush

Double bottom yes, technical retracement yes, carry trade yes, BUT I would be wary going long at these levels.

Just my opinion but the charts I am looking at may warrant a visit back to 7200 before any real move higher. In addition, I think there may be some unpleasant catalysts waiting in the wings. Of course I have been known to be paranoid and delusional but fundamentally something smells to me.

Good luck trading this week everyone
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #92,606
  • Oct 11, 2015 5:15am Oct 11, 2015 5:15am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Yes good point, I think there is another 500-600 pips left in this bull run
Can you explain more about your statement "500-600 pips left"?
  • #92,607
  • Oct 11, 2015 8:22am Oct 11, 2015 8:22am
i dont know what are you guys talking about 500 600 pips more up, but technically what i see is listed below:

Weekly is Down: 07498 is the zone to sell http://prntscr.com/8q2upm

Monthly Is Down: Lots of room to drop 06391 is the zone where it will finally stop http://prntscr.com/8q2v4o

Daily is up but now its in the weekly fresh supply and now sell will take control again near 7498
  • #92,608
  • Oct 11, 2015 8:56am Oct 11, 2015 8:56am
Funny how the market sentiment can change so quickly. It was going to test low 60s when China devalued its currency few weks ago and here we are after FOMC minutes talking about rally going another 400 pips.
There is still a very strong chance of rate cut by Fed this year. Don't forget US earnings season is here which may provide further comfort for another rate cut.
I will be very reluctant to take long positions here unless you are a day trader.
Just watch Yellen coming out of closet very soon..
  • #92,609
  • Oct 11, 2015 9:25am Oct 11, 2015 9:25am
All looks nice but ehhhh....

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  • #92,610
  • Oct 11, 2015 9:45am Oct 11, 2015 9:45am
Im going to short AUDUSD. I believe iron ore price will drop sharply in following months.
  • #92,611
  • Oct 11, 2015 12:36pm Oct 11, 2015 12:36pm
Quoting alz
Funny how the market sentiment can change so quickly. It was going to test low 60s when China devalued its currency few weks ago and here we are after FOMC minutes talking about rally going another 400 pips. There is still a very strong chance of rate cut by Fed this year. Don't forget US earnings season is here which may provide further comfort for another rate cut. I will be very reluctant to take long positions here unless you are a day trader. Just watch Yellen coming out of closet very soon..
you mean rate hike not cut.Feds has been talking rate hike for last 12months not cuts...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #92,612
  • Oct 11, 2015 2:37pm Oct 11, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting chinfei
{quote} Can you explain more about your statement "500-600 pips left"?
I think the current bull run can travel another 500-600 pips
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #92,613
  • Oct 11, 2015 2:43pm Oct 11, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting Solomon1a
i dont know what are you guys talking about 500 600 pips more up, but technically what i see is listed below: Weekly is Down: 07498 is the zone to sell http://prntscr.com/8q2upm Monthly Is Down: Lots of room to drop 06391 is the zone where it will finally stop http://prntscr.com/8q2v4o Daily is up but now its in the weekly fresh supply and now sell will take control again near 7498
It's just a technical observation, looking for a retest of the monthly TL at around 0.77-78
Overall, I have a bearish view down to 0.63 after the TL retest
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #92,614
  • Oct 11, 2015 2:43pm Oct 11, 2015 2:43pm
AUDUSD 6 Months Consensus

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  • #92,615
  • Oct 11, 2015 9:44pm Oct 11, 2015 9:44pm
hmm, lets do a round up:

case for more upside
- by way of technical analysis, bulls are still in control
- short term, nothing in the way of fundamentals to cap the bull run until thurs

case against upside
- weary after 8 days of straight gains, 4% gain overall
- long term fundamentals still mildly bearish
- employment figures on thursday may keep a lid on it (and if positive thereafter may spur the rally further or shock the market back downwards)
- logically speaking, why would the aussie's value sustain a rise to 77-78cents on current fundamentals


Coming up: 100 DMA now at 7360+ ... market hasnt closed above it since june; might be decisive for the s-t

my take on it is that if im gonna enter long, i'm looking for very tight stops and TP. long because i still believe in that the "trend is your friend till the end". GL everyone!
  • #92,616
  • Oct 11, 2015 11:26pm Oct 11, 2015 11:26pm
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The Price of $AUDUSD is in strong resistance zone along with 38.6 Fib level, there is strong possibility to reject the price from here, I stick to this chart and wait for the price rejection before entering my short trade.
Twitter : @Autofxtrading
  • #92,617
  • Oct 12, 2015 12:41am Oct 12, 2015 12:41am
Bank Holiday = No new trade today
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #92,618
  • Oct 12, 2015 3:27am Oct 12, 2015 3:27am
Quiet days are great days for scalping. I usually make more on such days scalping than when entering planned trades other days! Japan and US holiday, where else? The market seems like a ghost town today.
  • #92,619
  • Oct 12, 2015 3:29am Oct 12, 2015 3:29am
Quoting ell3
Quiet days are great days for scalping. I usually make more on such days scalping than when entering planned trades other days! Japan and US holiday, where else? The market seems like a ghost town today.
Careful what you say, AUD seems like it's making another move up just right now.
  • #92,620
  • Oct 12, 2015 3:57am Oct 12, 2015 3:57am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Careful what you say, AUD seems like it's making another move up just right now.
Yeap, my scalps are all longs. What I meant was that the moves are usually slower and there's more time to think and 'feel'..close if it's coming back down then re-enter. Wonder if it will break the 100dma. Skirting it's underside now.
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