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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,301
  • Oct 9, 2015 12:06pm Oct 9, 2015 12:06pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Oil ate my beautiful entries and reminded me just how expensive it can be... from what I'm seeing on the lower time frames it's still got something to prove higher up....the weekly as well. I'll look for an entry next week after I see the closes
je je I've been hinting you a couple of times that we shouldn't "sit and ride" but "grab and run" at these levels in oil .... I was stopped out too on the remaining on the tick above $50.xx (you should have offset all the loss by first target profit 48.8x on Wednesday).

The point wasn't making a profit on that trade but getting a good entry (a cheap ticket) for a proper ride....thats the usual way to play it cheap when you are trying to outguess a macro level for a swing ...the play is still the same and I wont be trigger shy if the opportunity arise again ...

let see how we roll....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,302
  • Oct 9, 2015 12:10pm Oct 9, 2015 12:10pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I jumped in early with a half position. 1.1387 was close enough for me
Allow me to state that I'm not impressed. Reminds me of Larry.

Have a good one.

P.S.: Just as I read what Sisse told you about "grab and run" vs "sit and hold"... let me add the following without condescending undertone: "Master your game before playing with the big guys".
  • #137,303
  • Oct 9, 2015 12:12pm Oct 9, 2015 12:12pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} je je I've been hinting you a couple of times that we shouldn't "sit and ride" but "grab and run" at these levels in oil .... I was stopped out too on the remaining on the tick above $50.xx (you should have offset all the loss by first target profit 48.8x on Wednesday). The point wasn't making a profit on that trade but getting a good entry (a cheap ticket) for a proper ride....thats the usual way to play it cheap when you are trying to outguess a macro level for a swing ...the play is still the same and I wont be trigger shy if the opportunity...
I could have played it better. Profit evaporated save a few shillings. Account is no worse for the wear.

Will draw some guesses up this weekend...AB=CD is my first guess, puts it at 55.07
  • #137,304
  • Oct 9, 2015 12:14pm Oct 9, 2015 12:14pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Allow me to state that I'm not impressed. Reminds me of Larry. Have a good one. P.S.: Just as I read what Sisse told you about "grab and run" vs "sit and hold"... let me add the following without condescending undertone: "Master your game before playing with the big guys".
Yeah- I'm quite literally the small boat trying to catch a big fish that sisse warns about often. Trading S/R Ken A style instead of mofu which I'm better at. Again reminds me of what you told me about money to lose.

As for EU, you can spank me later- hell since you're already not impressed I might as well tell you I also took the trade without verifying or seeing your numbers. Once I'm BE I'll change the story and ask you why you didn't enter If that doesn't work out I'll just blame you
  • #137,305
  • Oct 9, 2015 12:17pm Oct 9, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I jumped in early with a half position. 1.1387 was close enough for me
missed mine by 0.x pips wasn't so quick to do it by my own
Attached Image
  • #137,306
  • Oct 9, 2015 12:23pm Oct 9, 2015 12:23pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Yeah- I'm quite literally the small boat trying to catch a big fish that sisse warns about often. Trading S/R Ken A style instead of mofu which I'm better at. Again reminds me of what you told me about money to lose. As for EU, you can spank me later- hell since you're already not impressed I might as well tell you I also took the trade without verifying or seeing your numbers. Once I'm BE I'll change the story and ask you why you didn't enter If that doesn't work out I'll just blame you
That doesn't matter to me, you're good enough. Just manage your money wisely and don't let your success get over your head.

Won't work.
  • #137,307
  • Oct 9, 2015 12:26pm Oct 9, 2015 12:26pm
*sniffle*
  • #137,308
  • Oct 9, 2015 1:25pm Oct 9, 2015 1:25pm
Anyone have a document on the pros and cons of scalp vs. trend trading? If so, please share it.
  • #137,309
  • Oct 9, 2015 2:01pm Oct 9, 2015 2:01pm
Trenders make more money for less work?
  • #137,310
  • Oct 9, 2015 2:32pm Oct 9, 2015 2:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ....... Thats why you can hear me saying dollar/pound/aud/euro/or whatever is in control/in the driver sit ...meaning that is the stronger influence on the underlying moving the pair in that particular moment. I hope it helps ... sisse
Great explanation. Thanks for taking the time to explain in detail. Much appreciated.
  • #137,311
  • Oct 9, 2015 6:07pm Oct 9, 2015 6:07pm
Quoting rehorst
Anyone have a document on the pros and cons of scalp vs. trend trading? If so, please share it.
If you provide your definitions of "scalp" and "trend-trade", I'll set it up for you.
  • #137,312
  • Oct 11, 2015 2:28pm Oct 11, 2015 2:28pm
Thats a slippery slope where E/U and Gold left hanging on friday..
Here is a sneaky E/U scenario for reversal around 1.1410. Fridays NY lows at 1.1330's better to hold for this.. And within this range - 1.3375 is a line in the sand.
Lets call this before (M5):
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Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_USD_5 Mins_tetra-g.png Size: 35 KB
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  • #137,313
  • Oct 11, 2015 2:31pm Oct 11, 2015 2:31pm
Gold also still have a chance to spike towards 1160/62 before really deciding where to go next (bullish scenarios would put 1197/1202 in view).
69
  • #137,314
  • Edited 6:41pm Oct 11, 2015 6:26pm | Edited 6:41pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} The minutes could trigger the first leg of the quarter across the board ...best bet for the play is in confirming the no hikes/confused FED and not the Yellen unofficial comments that came after to ride the selloff in equites directly and via dollar (euro) to complete a strong exhaustion move at the end of the month with OCT Fed announcement... sisse
Hi Sisse, since there is gonna be more lazy trading day today u may have a few minutes to drop a word on this.

U wrote this earlier before last week FOMC but it also mentions the OCT fed announcement so its pretty much still relevant.

When u talked about the "first leg of the quarter" - that means mid term leg, which could have been triggered by hawkish minutes, right? So if I understand it right - it did not happen ("the best play" u mention happened) as we have gotten a short term swing up (in euro + boosted equities) on dovish minutes, ok?

Than u mention yellen comment, which means there was a "misharmonization" between FED when the meeting took place and in the moment of release of minutes - so you expected dovish minutes = trigger of the short term leg happening now - + there is the hint that fed is after yellen remarks more hawkish than the minutes (= of course in case the data does not further (after NFP) miss - e.g. inflation this week) - so this logic goes -- short term swing up (eur) on dovish minutes as an opp to load for potentional mid term swing (= the first leg of the quarter) triggered by hawkish FED at the end of OCT/supported by macro numbers even before OCT FED?

Plus you talk about "strong exhaustion move"? It applies to SP500/equities only, righy? And it would be the last part of the potentional 2020 -) 1790 SP500 mid term swing. Because it seems that dollar has not really made any move- all of that is about to come in dollar - , which would be part of the mid/long term leg of monetary policy normalization cycle. Unlike equties, which outsmarted the FED.

Hope u get what Im trying to understand (haha, actually, I may be trying to understand FED but that is getting more difficult by every meeting they have and the last dot for the negative interest rate makes it kind of hilarious - so hopefully I can at least understand your posts ) and thank you!!
  • #137,315
  • Oct 12, 2015 5:42am Oct 12, 2015 5:42am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} That doesn't matter to me, you're good enough. Just manage your money wisely and don't let your success get over your head. Won't work.
Stopped at BE on the last one, now joined you with 1.1391....that hangman looks nice....

you can say I told you so

ADR can still tag 1.1438+ some
  • #137,316
  • Oct 12, 2015 6:52am Oct 12, 2015 6:52am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Stopped at BE on the last one, now joined you with 1.1391....that hangman looks nice.... you can say I told you so ADR can still tag 1.1438+ some
ADR isn't a valid indicator without NY. With that pin bar on H1 it could be turning point.
  • #137,317
  • Oct 12, 2015 7:15am Oct 12, 2015 7:15am
Do you have an NY holiday indicator? I seem to have lost mine
  • #137,318
  • Oct 12, 2015 1:23pm Oct 12, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} one of many classics.... http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/006...ilpage_o02_s00
damn good book so far
  • #137,319
  • Edited 3:18am Oct 13, 2015 3:08am | Edited 3:18am
Quoting chester123
.... could have been triggered by hawkish minutes, right? So if I understand it right - it did not happen ("the best play" u mention happened) as we have gotten a short term swing up (in euro + boosted equities) on dovish minutes, ok?
Yes.

Quote
Than u mention yellen comment ... so you expected dovish minutes = trigger of the short term leg happening now - + there is the hint that fed is after yellen remarks more hawkish than the minutes (= of course in case the data does not further (after NFP) miss - e.g. inflation this week) - so this logic goes -- short term swing up (euro) on dovish minutes as an app to load for potential mid term swing (= the first leg of the quarter) triggered by hawkish FED at the end of OCT/supported by macro numbers even before OCT FED?

Yes and for this week inflation is the play of the week no discussion about it.

Quote
Plus you talk about "strong exhaustion move"? potentiona SP500 mid term swing. Because it seems that dollar has not really made any move- all of that is about to come in dollar - , which would be part of the mid/long term leg of monetary policy normalization cycle. Unlike equites, which outsmarted the FED...

Yes.

---- ---- ----

--> The map is clear since a few weeks ago. The easiest way to 'translate & understand it' in technical terms is in number of FED meetings to first hike with your Fundamental Chart next to it.

Basically bulls have a very limited time to break 1.148x (before Oct FED otherwise odds will plummeted ).

Just from the FA rates side:

---> In broad terms and bastardising fundamentals: From the FA chart, 1.148x was [early this year] / is strong support [now resistance] for hike after 2 FED meetings (meaning hike DEC). A series of poor inflation numbers with bad US numbers in the short term will make hike expectation move towards 2016 for first hikes (meaning 3 FED meetings and beyond) unlocking the extension to the 1.18xx handle.

---> 1.18xx is a steel FA resistance which is SNB broken peg floor with Euro and also Rate differentials break out (negative rates from ECB) and we will need something a lot stronger than FED no hiking rates to crack it (1.22xx is TA broken support but its very locked that we wont reach there at least for now and with such a strong FA resistance underneath).

--> To the other side 1.108x is FA strong support for imminent FED hikes (i.e FED next meeting) and we may get into play after Oct FED. Below with actual 1st hike is the last rate differentials FA support @ 1.057x till a bit below parity (assuming no changes in ECB)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,320
  • Oct 13, 2015 4:15am Oct 13, 2015 4:15am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Allow me to state that I'm not impressed. Reminds me of Larry.
Heyho.... I'm the master of patience now.... don't have one position atm .
Fail better.
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