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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,281
  • Oct 9, 2015 2:53am Oct 9, 2015 2:53am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Meaning eurusd breaking up or down? I really admire your analysis, but it can be difficult to interpret the difference between dollar, euro or eurusd.
Ahoy! I think EurUsd answered itself.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,282
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:51am Oct 9, 2015 4:51am
Quoting ClinicalEx
An update on my German Equities view in noting Euro resistance on the pair as long as inverse correlation relatively holds. Busy with other currencies (A/J.) because I was slightly dislocated from the pair despite the very defined borders( 1290/80/1143/70 as mentioned.) of the range. It just ended up winding a bit too tight for my taste for anything new. Bulls managing to take some control on the back of that bad NFP and revision (it was the bellwether for dollar strength this year so a bit of a downer.) Just passively observing:...
Interesting what has happened to the correlation on the weekly since the DAX got back to the area (shown in beige) it took off from after the ECB lowered rates to near zero and announced QE/Expanded asset purchases. (Dax is crimson for down and gold for up, EURUSD is red and blue)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #137,283
  • Oct 9, 2015 5:19am Oct 9, 2015 5:19am
Looking for Gold reversal in 1158/62 (or 120x is next), E/U at 1.1350's (or 1.1410/70 next), U/J may give a clue as it sits exactly in a decision area (120,1x)
69
  • #137,284
  • Oct 9, 2015 6:28am Oct 9, 2015 6:28am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Interesting what has happened to the correlation on the weekly since the DAX got back to the area (shown in beige) it took off from after the ECB lowered rates to near zero and announced QE/Expanded asset purchases. (Dax is crimson for down and gold for up, EURUSD is red and blue) {image}
Yes, noted, and nice charting. Will keep an eye on developments around those very interesting levels (not sure if they are in your book, in my case, in equities yes.)

I think, in comparison, the Euro highs will be limited further down the line.

For now, dollar losing out vs everything from emerging and high beta currencies and on the pair too. So looking out for a hard floor on the dollar index before further action on the pair.

Thanks for the good chart and congrats to the bulls on here.
  • #137,285
  • Oct 9, 2015 8:21am Oct 9, 2015 8:21am
And I wondered, why all of a sudden http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=344492 was abandoned...

Have a nice weekend.
  • #137,286
  • Oct 9, 2015 8:37am Oct 9, 2015 8:37am
Quoting Mr Hatch
And I wondered, why all of a sudden http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=344492 was abandoned... Have a nice weekend.
Now now, the cuddle puffs may get offended if you call others out...
  • #137,287
  • Oct 9, 2015 8:47am Oct 9, 2015 8:47am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Now now, the cuddle puffs may get offended if you call others out...
So, multiple usernames are accepted now?
Let the puffs cuddle my ass...
  • #137,288
  • Oct 9, 2015 9:16am Oct 9, 2015 9:16am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} So, multiple usernames are accepted now? Let the puffs cuddle my ass...
I've got a pending short at 1.1438 to see if bulls are serious
  • #137,289
  • Oct 9, 2015 10:59am Oct 9, 2015 10:59am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I've got a pending short at 1.1438 to see if bulls are serious
14376 here, but I'm still expecting this to get some respect.
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Why's that? btw... do you have 1.13913, 1.12005 and 1.14867 in your sequence? Just that the 12005 is below the infamous 1209. Waiting... and for the Q to close.
  • #137,290
  • Oct 9, 2015 11:10am Oct 9, 2015 11:10am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} 14376 here, but I'm still expecting this to get some respect. {quote}
same exact number here....i rounded
  • #137,291
  • Oct 9, 2015 11:23am Oct 9, 2015 11:23am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} same exact number here....i rounded
I like the last digit... sounds, as if I knew what I was doing.
  • #137,292
  • Oct 9, 2015 11:24am Oct 9, 2015 11:24am
Quoting sisse
A bit clearer the FED minutes. ... No surprises on the technical side either. Oil to nearly the exact tick 49.9x [in play], S&P in its way to test the top of the range 2020.xx[check] and Euro clearing perfectly the long overdue 1.132x [check] and ...

Not much to do here. Same levels, same trades, same all...
A very decent week here. As widely expected since Tuesday a simple (but rather soft) break 1.132x in euro. S&P completed the leg 2020.xx (@FOOL !!!), OIL sitting at 49.9x for the weekly close (@ Pharm0r !!!) and Gold which has been the best behave in the last few weeks marching towards final target.

Here actively tracking the close in equites and commodities as we have 2020.xx and 49.9x in play to reload. Long weekend coming with US on holidays it's always a pain in the ass for the euro given that we have a breakout. Tracking 1.137x for the W roll as reference for momentum to complete the short term main target...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,293
  • Oct 9, 2015 11:26am Oct 9, 2015 11:26am
Quoting sisse
{quote} A very decent week here. As widely expected since Tuesday a simple (but rather soft) break 1.132x in euro. S&P completed the leg 2020.xx (@FOOL !!!), OIL sitting at 49.9x for the weekly close (@ Pharm0r !!!) and Gold which has been the best behave in the last few weeks marching towards final target. Here actively tracking the close in equites and commodities as we have 2020.xx and 49.9x in play to reload. Long weekend coming which is always a pain in the ass for the euro given that we have a breakout. Tracking 1.137x for the W roll as...
What is your expectations with euro ... Will it travel the north direction or will it now resume the south trend ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,294
  • Oct 9, 2015 11:31am Oct 9, 2015 11:31am
Quoting sisse
{quote} A very decent week here. As widely expected since Tuesday a simple (but rather soft) break 1.132x in euro. S&P completed the leg 2020.xx (@FOOL !!!), OIL sitting at 49.9x for the weekly close (@ Pharm0r !!!) and Gold which has been the best behave in the last few weeks marching towards final target. Here actively tracking the close in equites and commodities as we have 2020.xx and 49.9x in play to reload. Long weekend coming with US on holidays it's always a pain in the ass for the euro given that we have a breakout. Tracking 1.137x for...
Oil ate my beautiful entries and reminded me just how expensive it can be...

from what I'm seeing on the lower time frames it's still got something to prove higher up....the weekly as well. I'll look for an entry next week after I see the closes
  • #137,295
  • Oct 9, 2015 11:42am Oct 9, 2015 11:42am
Quoting sisse
{quote} A very decent week here. As widely expected since Tuesday a simple (but rather soft) break 1.132x in euro. S&P completed the leg 2020.xx (@FOOL !!!), OIL sitting at 49.9x for the weekly close (@ Pharm0r !!!) and Gold which has been the best behave in the last few weeks marching towards final target. Here actively tracking the close in equites and commodities as we have 2020.xx and 49.9x in play to reload. Long weekend coming with US on holidays it's always a pain in the ass for the euro given that we have a breakout. Tracking 1.137x for...
hi Sisse , the short term main target is/was 1.18xx , tight ? , thanks
  • #137,296
  • Oct 9, 2015 11:44am Oct 9, 2015 11:44am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Oil ate my beautiful entries and reminded me just how expensive it can be... from what I'm seeing on the lower time frames it's still got something to prove higher up....the weekly as well. I'll look for an entry next week after I see the closes
It reminded me it shouldn't let it running overnight... lost all my profits in one go ;-)
  • #137,297
  • Oct 9, 2015 11:49am Oct 9, 2015 11:49am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} hi Sisse , the short term main target is/was 1.18xx , tight ? , thanks
Here ...

Quoting sisse
{quote} .... with the FOMC minutes. I am in with remaining very dull longs 1.112x for a while (for a test of highs and max jackpot ext 1.18xx) and topped up longs for today's play early on Tuesday 1.122x for a soft leg 1.132x (sadly it has failed 2 times by handful of ticks to clear me onto soft target) and ext 1.146x on top of the final swing targets. {quote} ...
------ --------- --

Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Meaning eurusd breaking up or down? I really admire your analysis, but it can be difficult to interpret the difference between dollar, euro or eurusd.

--> if you trade Apple Stock you are buying the value of Apple as a company. If the perceived value of APPLE is good or bad (because whatever reason e.g better earning reports etc) the stock price of the underlying goes up or down accordingly.


Most markets have 1 and only underlying in a trading instrument.

--> In the case of currencies you have pairs/crosses meaning you have 2 sides making the value of the underlying so for example:


The value of the EUR / USD is influenced by both the Euro and the Dollar.

In very rough words and generalising, you can have fundamentals (or externalities) that affect 1 side (e.g positive inflation numbers, etc) but not the other. Other times you can have things that affect both sides at the same time (e.g a risk leg Lehman collapsing, etc).

---> Obviously you can do the basic implication map:


A bad negative news for the Dollar for example and without any other factor affecting the euro will mean:

 

  1. ----------> EUR (no change) | Dollar ( - ) = EUR / USD going ( up )


(simple maths denominator goes down the total goes up and vice versa) you can do the rest of the combinations ...


---> So for example yesterday my comment was "Bearish close in the dollar for the roll (euro very bullish)".



So how do you check that / why did I say that? You always always have the DX (dollar index) in your workspace so the DOLLAR index close bearish (but didn't broke down) however the impact on the Euro was clearer closing above 1.127x (which was the only level to track for the roll if you follow the conversation from Monday)....

In conclusion, the value of any pair/cross is given by the mix of both side of the underlying. Those can point to the same side, to opposite sides and it can be affected simultaneously for a news/externatlity but most of the time they follow their own reason.

Thats why you can hear me saying dollar/pound/aud/euro/or whatever is in control/in the driver sit ...meaning that is the stronger influence on the underlying moving the pair in that particular moment.

I hope it helps ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,298
  • Oct 9, 2015 11:54am Oct 9, 2015 11:54am
thanks Sisse for replying back . wish you a nice good weekend
  • #137,299
  • Oct 9, 2015 11:55am Oct 9, 2015 11:55am
Quoting sisse
S&P completed the leg 2020.xx (@FOOL
I am high above it all now, floating in pink clouds with Ganesha, just watching amused while vast sums flow into my accounts....all is Bliss.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,300
  • Oct 9, 2015 12:05pm Oct 9, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} 14376 here, but I'm still expecting this to get some respect. {quote}
I jumped in early with a half position. 1.1387 was close enough for me
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