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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,261
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:14am Oct 8, 2015 7:14am
Quoting sisse
...--> The verdict seems to be out and markets aligning to complete the first HIKE leg in equities for the play 2020.xx -> 1790.xx with 1985.x as flip level before forming a long term base for the "BUY & HOLD" play once FED normalisation is finished. Eyes on 1985.xx [in play] for the next few sessions.
Quote
--> However and more important for today is OIL. All eyes on the $49.xx handle (49.7/9x ...)[check]. For the first time in nearly 8 weeks there is a tradable area...
Quote
--> On the euro, the never-ending 1.127x [in play] keeps providing extensive chop but the compression range (8 weeks) looks unsustainable for much longer. Technically short term I have imminent alerts break out to the top side (short term swing for a test of highs and beyond).

The board looks 'al dente' for the first leg of the Quarter with the FOMC minutes [in play]as a clear catalyst for the last...

...and that was it for the positioning this week....

As widely expected since Monday S&P sitting on shooting range of key 1985.xx, Oil lost the $49.xx handle intraday and Euro tested the the top of the compress range and quickly back down to the key 1.127x for today Fomc minutes.

Not much to see or do here. The opening range will kill the session until the Minutes...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,262
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:47am Oct 8, 2015 7:47am
Quoting sisse
{quote}{quote}{quote} ...and that was it for the positioning this week.... As widely expected since Monday S&P sitting on shooting range of key 1985.xx, Oil lost the $49.xx handle intraday and Euro tested the the top of the compress range and quickly back down to the key 1.127x for today Fomc minutes. Not much to see or do here. The opening range will kill the session until the Minutes... sisse
Hi Sisse!

You used the test of the upper levels to position yourself until FOMC minutes -> I mean did you sell the top?
I think the pair is collection sellers now (1.124xx)...therefore the best strategy would have been to sell the top and buy the current levels -> when the pair gets back to the 1.128xx level (good chance of getting there until FOMC minutes), than both direction would be in BE...what do you think, do you use this kind of positioning (both direction at one time)?

Thanks in advance.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,263
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:29pm Oct 8, 2015 12:29pm
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hi Sisse! You used the test of the upper levels to position yourself until FOMC minutes -> I mean did you sell the top? I think the pair is collection sellers now (1.124xx)...therefore the best strategy would have been to sell the top and buy the current levels -> when the pair gets back to the 1.128xx level (good chance of getting there until FOMC minutes), than both direction would be in BE...what do you think, do you use this kind of positioning (both direction at one time)? Thanks in advance.
I understand exactly what you mean but NO i didn't sell the test as i am bidding on the break down in equites with the FOMC minutes.

I am in with remaining very dull longs 1.112x for a while (for a test of highs and max jackpot ext 1.18xx) and topped up longs for today's play early on Tuesday 1.122x for a soft leg 1.132x (sadly it has failed 2 times by handful of ticks to clear me onto soft target) and ext 1.146x on top of the final swing targets.

Quote
Quote
" ...-> On the euro, the never-ending 1.127x keeps ... looks unsustainable for much longer. Technically short term I have imminent alerts break out to the top side (short term swing for a test of highs and beyond).

The board looks 'al dente' for the first legs of the Quarter with the FOMC minutes as a clear catalyst for the last FED decision leg.

Not much to do here, soft intraday loading areas in the euro for those planning to trade or top up longs ...

The minutes could trigger the first leg of the quarter across the board ...best bet for the play is in confirming the no hikes/confused FED and not the Yellen unofficial comments that came after to ride the selloff in equites directly and via dollar (euro) to complete a strong exhaustion move at the end of the month with OCT Fed announcement...

I see you are one of the few that pateintly are also long from below, lets see how its goes and hopefully we break the range.... but whatever the case map is crystal clear and fading the top you mentioned is a no brainer with hawkish minutes ....

In my case, simple trade management for the upcoming news with the never ending 1.127x as rain maker and only level to track...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,264
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:32pm Oct 8, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I understand exactly what you mean but NO i didn't sell the test as i am bidding on the break down in equites with the FOMC minutes. I am in with very remaining dull longs 1.112x for a while (for a test of highs and max jackpot ext 1.18xx) and topped up longs for today's play early on Tuesday 1.122x for a soft leg 1.132x (sadly it has failed 2 times by handful of ticks to clear me) and ext 1.146x. {quote} The minutes could trigger the first leg of the quarter across the board ...best bet for the play is in confirming the no hikes/confused...
You're thinking a selloff in oil? We are right on the hair line for popping the top....spooky place to be before FOMC
  • #137,265
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:42pm Oct 8, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You're thinking a selloff in oil? We are right on the hair line for popping the top....spooky place to be before FOMC
Oil need the domino to carry the trade. If you are in from yesterday, there is not much to do but sit thigh and wait. i am guessing you obviously cleared the initial 47.8x target intraday on the test of last breakout before the news today ...otherwise you "sat and rode" instead of "grab and run" as planned at these levels...

Just siting tight on the swing positions and letting it play out. Revaluate after news if not stopped out before ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,266
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:49pm Oct 8, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Oil need the domino to carry the trade. If you are in from yesterday, there is not much to do but sit thigh and wait. i am guessing you obviously cleared the initial 47.8x target intraday on the test of last breakout before the news today ...otherwise you "sat and rode" instead of "grab and run" as planned at these levels... Just siting tight on the swing positions and letting it play out. Revaluate after news if not stopped out before .... sisse
Actually did both.....reloaded here risking profits I cleared from here yesterday. Watching 50.14 for one final load

I don't like being here with FOMC though

Almost longed 47.90 when I closed my short....should coulda woulda
  • #137,267
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:52pm Oct 8, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Actually did both.....reloaded here risking profits I cleared from here yesterday. Watching 50.14 for one final load I don't like being here with FOMC though
Yes i know what u mean. The best swings always start "in prefer not to be here before xxx" areas...they usually end up in flops and uneventful trades ...but when they don't ... you will make the year ...wont you? ......

GL mate ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,268
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:53pm Oct 8, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting sisse
but whatever the case map is crystal clear
The Great Pumpkin and Santa told me risk on!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,269
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:55pm Oct 8, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes i know what u mean. The best swings always start "in prefer not to be here before xxx" areas...they usually end up in flops and uneventful trades ...but when they don't ... you will make the year ...wont you? ...... GL mate ... sisse
Too true
  • #137,270
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:56pm Oct 8, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} The Great Pumpkin and Santa told me risk on!
...and I will happily play it too ... eyes on 1985.xx for the downside (ext 1790.xx) and 2020.xx for a test 2070.xx

Updates after the close... GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,271
  • Oct 8, 2015 1:17pm Oct 8, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and I will happily play it too ... eyes on 1985.xx for the downside (ext 1790.xx) and 2020.xx for a test 2070.xx Updates after the close... GL sisse
Godzilla 2000 - I think a Santa rally will disappoint if spoos doesn't settle above 2100 before Turkey Day.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,272
  • Oct 8, 2015 1:58pm Oct 8, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Actually did both.....reloaded here risking profits I cleared from here yesterday. Watching 50.14 for one final load I don't like being here with FOMC though Almost longed 47.90 when I closed my short....should coulda woulda
A bit clearer the FED minutes. Basically, FED chickened out sep hike on China jitters and nothing else.

--> Conclusion, back to normality with DEC hike on track and a clear test that the FED is s$&tin its pants to hike rates after 7 years of making the board a full addict junky to free money and the economy heavily dependent on "training wheels"...

No surprises on the technical side either. Oil to nearly the exact tick 49.9x, S&P in its way to test the top of the range 2020.xx and Euro clearing perfectly the long overdue 1.132x and back to 1.127x for the close.

Not much to do here. Same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,273
  • Oct 8, 2015 2:06pm Oct 8, 2015 2:06pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} A bit clearer the FED minutes. Basically, FED chickened out sep hike on China jitters and nothing else. --> Conclusion, back to normality with DEC hike on track and a clear test that the FED is s$&tin its pants to hike rates after 7 years of making the board a full addict junky to free money and the economy heavily dependent on "training wheels"... No surprises on the technical side either. Oil to nearly the exact tick 49.9x, S&P in its way to test the top of the range 2020.xx and Euro clearing perfectly the long overdue 1.132x and back...
Traded out my 49.50 short for a 49.90

I've got a 50.00 touch to the tick
  • #137,274
  • Oct 8, 2015 2:21pm Oct 8, 2015 2:21pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Traded out my 49.50 short for a 49.90 I've got a 50.00 touch to the tick
Yeap i think we traded CL a fraction of a sec above ...pretty much irrelevant as the play is a swing... Its not going to be easy at all to pan out after the Minutes and with equities holding 1984.xx.

Lets see if we can squeeze anything out of it ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,275
  • Oct 8, 2015 2:32pm Oct 8, 2015 2:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} A bit clearer the FED minutes. Basically, FED chickened out sep hike on China jitters and nothing else. --> Conclusion, back to normality with DEC hike on track............. S&P in its way to test the top of the range 2020.xx
OMG what Godless socialistic commie European country do you hail from, sisse? Do you think the JY Fed will pull Tiny Tim's crutch away, steal Santa's reindeer, and hike the Grinch rate on Christmas Eve? I don't think so.

I have fat October payouts at SPY $200 and $205, worst thing can happen to me now is a backtrack below $200...VIX dump is looking good, too.

Everyone just meditate on the Great Pumpkin, do those Ganesha mantras, and try to chillax.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,276
  • Oct 8, 2015 2:48pm Oct 8, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} OMG what Godless socialistic commie European country do you hail from, sisse? Do you think the JY Fed will pull Tiny Tim's crutch away, steal Santa's reindeer, and hike the Grinch rate on Christmas Eve? I don't think so. I have fat October payouts at SPY $200 and $205, worst thing can happen to me now is a backtrack below $200...VIX dump is looking good, too. Everyone just meditate on the Great Pumpkin, do those Ganesha mantras, and try to chillax.
lol mate ...

I wish i can be more 'positive' in my equities outlook but if "this is what i think its is" ....Bastards will complete the last part of the first hike leg before DEC. The odds of a sustainable rally till the end of the year are very weak to say the least ...

In any case, your trade looks still on track (but time looks a bit edgy) as we may get stuck in chop zone 2020x/1985.xx till the next FOMC .... In your case 2020.xx is the bitch...so far no break no shake there, neither in dollar or treasuries so ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,277
  • Oct 8, 2015 2:52pm Oct 8, 2015 2:52pm
  • #137,278
  • Oct 8, 2015 3:32pm Oct 8, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting sisse
....Bastards will complete the last part of the first hike leg before DEC. The odds of a sustainable rally till the end of the year are very weak to say the least ... sisse
yeah, I think Oct-Nov is open for equity rallies, prolly anything past Nov opex succumbs to Dec rate hike angst, & you have to say that's on the table, but we'll see what bubbles up in the macro soup in the coming month....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,279
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:02pm Oct 8, 2015 5:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah, I think Oct-Nov is open for equity rallies, prolly anything past Nov opex succumbs to Dec rate hike angst, & you have to say that's on the table, but we'll see what bubbles up in the macro soup in the coming month....
Bearish close in the dollar for the roll (euro very bullish) ...watch-out for imminent break out as it will carry lots of hints of what is about to come in equities ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,280
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:54pm Oct 8, 2015 5:54pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Bearish close in the dollar for the roll (euro very bullish) ...watch-out for imminent break out as it will carry lots of hints of what is about to come in equities ... sisse
Meaning eurusd breaking up or down?

I really admire your analysis, but it can be difficult to interpret the difference between dollar, euro or eurusd.
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