Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 316 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,301
  • Oct 4, 2015 3:48pm Oct 4, 2015 3:48pm
Hello fellow traders,

Hope you had a great weekend, autumn is here and seems that some nice volatility will be available soon. Markets have started to move a little bit at the beginning of a new month, some news event will probably move main currencies a bit which will allow us to see where the markets are heading for the next couple

Update on AUD/USD

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,302
  • Oct 4, 2015 3:49pm Oct 4, 2015 3:49pm
NZD/USD is ranging on the Daily chart, reacting to strong D1 pin candle. Monthly and weekly down, strong Daily supply nested within weekly supply around 0.66. Short bias

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,303
  • Oct 4, 2015 3:49pm Oct 4, 2015 3:49pm
GBP/CAD bouncing of brand new Weekly supply, new Daily supply zones being created. Short bias

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  • #6,304
  • Oct 4, 2015 9:17pm Oct 4, 2015 9:17pm
[quote=panoramia;8523305]hi alfonso may i ask you a favor to check my latest post its quite unclear to me about the trendline rules. And just a confirmation, as per rules said when the trendline broke, the origin of the imbalances valid as a zone, what if there are more than 1 imbalances? All of them valid? [quote]
  • #6,305
  • Oct 5, 2015 1:27am Oct 5, 2015 1:27am
Quoting Sants
anyone can solve my problem :| we can draw the second trendline connecting 2nd valley to 3rd valley. after the broke of 3rd valley, is the 3rd demand zone is nolonger valid? as it is not nested in any HTF zone? as per rules said connecting trendline from the latest 2 obvious valleys/peak. -and after the break of 3rd valley, price manage to form a 4th valley and we able to draw the 3rd trendline connecting 3rd valley and 4th valley. now, after the removal the 3rd valley demand zone, is the trendline connecting 3rd and 4th valley is valid? i mean,...
Unless you explain and draw step by step on your screenshot what you are trying to say it's going to be very difficult to help you with this my friend. You uploaded a chart 2 trendlines and wrote a LOT of text. Why don't you do the same thing step by step on the screenshot? Otherwise this post will never be closed/solved. An image is worth a thousand words.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,306
  • Oct 5, 2015 2:24am Oct 5, 2015 2:24am
Unrealistic view of the markets...

I just wanted to share with you one of the last emails I got. I get many like this every month, believe me. Read this person's questions and you will see why I decied to title this post "unrealistic view of the how market".

Read the words highlighted in red. That's why many people fail to achieve their goals in trading and probably in life in general. I have to be VERY patient

  1. Exit with 30% average
  2. Don't want to many any losses
  3. Guarantee that the zone will work
  4. Etc

Cheers,
Alfonso

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  • #6,307
  • Oct 5, 2015 5:53am Oct 5, 2015 5:53am
Hey Alfonso. I have a question on the GBP/CAD you marked up. Thanks

Stockguy
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  • #6,308
  • Oct 5, 2015 6:00am Oct 5, 2015 6:00am
Quoting Stockguy
Hey Alfonso. I have a question on the GBP/CAD you marked up. Thanks Stockguy {image}
Hello my friend,

The trendlines are independent of the zones, we need trendline + 1 opposing zone to have a downtrend. C is a demand zone that was taken out by current supply. Draw a descending trendline on the left and you will get a demand zone that was taken out

Can you draw it and share the picture with us? You will see what I mean. C was demand, it's now taken out, so opposing zone is supply.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,309
  • Oct 5, 2015 7:11am Oct 5, 2015 7:11am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello my friend, The trendlines are independent of the zones, we need trendline + 1 opposing zone to have a downtrend. C is a demand zone that was taken out by current supply. Draw a descending trendline on the left and you will get a demand zone that was taken out Can you draw it and share the picture with us? You will see what I mean. C was demand, it's now taken out, so opposing zone is supply. Cheers, Alfonso
Your right Alfonso. I can't believe I missed that!! . I guess I was just trying to wrap some hard rules around drawing trend lines. The term "obvious peaks/valleys? does not help. I tend to see them everywhere at times. So the trend lines are independent of the zones though....got it! Thank You!

Stockguy
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  • #6,310
  • Oct 5, 2015 8:18am Oct 5, 2015 8:18am
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} Your right Alfonso. I can't believe I missed that!! . I guess I was just trying to wrap some hard rules around drawing trend lines. The term "obvious peaks/valleys? does not help. I tend to see them everywhere at times. So the trend lines are independent of the zones though....got it! Thank You! Stockguy {image}
Glad you got it my friend One thing about the bear trendline you drew, it's incorrect. You connected a continuation pattern of supply with a peak, that's not allowed as per the rules. You need to connect 2 peaks, the first peak at the top and the second peak you used, again you missed that

Rules are there, you are maybe unfocused

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,311
  • Oct 5, 2015 8:35am Oct 5, 2015 8:35am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Glad you got it my friend One thing about the bear trendline you drew, it's incorrect. You connected a continuation pattern of supply with a peak, that's not allowed as per the rules. You need to connect 2 peaks, the first peak at the top and the second peak you used, again you missed that Rules are there, you are maybe unfocused Cheers, Alfonso
It could be a little bit of a focus problem. I do have two consistent problems though. A) I can't always distinguish between a CP and valley/peak. B) I don't always know where to look to find the supply/demand to be broken. If you look at my chart above as reference, I usually look to the far left for levels to be broken, not at the levels marked A,B,C. I guess you could say that I am looking at previous PA, not the current move.

Thanks
Stockguy
  • #6,312
  • Oct 5, 2015 10:52am Oct 5, 2015 10:52am
Quoting panoramia
NZD/USD is ranging on the Daily chart, reacting to strong D1 pin candle. Monthly and weekly down, strong Daily supply nested within weekly supply around 0.66. Short bias {image}
Also i see a nested 4hr supply zone nested within daily and weekly supply
dashed yellow = weekly
solid yellow = daily
Red = 4 HR

SO alfonso could we consider the best place to put the pending sell order is the RED Zone!!!!!
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  • #6,313
  • Oct 5, 2015 4:26pm Oct 5, 2015 4:26pm
Quoting ahmedalhosenyy
{quote} Also i see a nested 4hr supply zone nested within daily and weekly supply dashed yellow = weekly solid yellow = daily Red = 4 HR SO alfonso could we consider the best place to put the pending sell order is the RED Zone!!!!! {image}
Ahmed, you have only uploaded one chart, H4, I can't see your analysis on at least 3 timeframes. Cheers, Alfonso
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  • #6,314
  • Oct 5, 2015 7:27pm Oct 5, 2015 7:27pm
Greetings Alfonso and all. I am sorta kinda new to S&D trading, and am looking to learn to earn my way to financial independence.
Before I start asking questions that have been asked ad nauseaum, I'll start with learning my ABC's from page one and proceed from there.

Looking to be a contributor soon.

Kind regards.
  • #6,315
  • Oct 6, 2015 2:47am Oct 6, 2015 2:47am
Quoting rtmason
Greetings Alfonso and all. I am sorta kinda new to S&D trading, and am looking to learn to earn my way to financial independence. Before I start asking questions that have been asked ad nauseaum, I'll start with learning my ABC's from page one and proceed from there. Looking to be a contributor soon. Kind regards.
Thanks for your introduction my friend. Take your time, there is a lot of information to be digested in the thread!

Looking forward to hearing from your contributions.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,316
  • Oct 6, 2015 2:49am Oct 6, 2015 2:49am
Strong H4 demand zone on gold, room to reach opposing supply. If conditions don't change, it'd be a valid long, unless a bigger and fresh timeframe of supply gains control


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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,317
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:30am Oct 6, 2015 8:30am
Quoting panoramia
Strong H4 demand zone on gold, room to reach opposing supply. If conditions don't change, it'd be a valid long, unless a bigger and fresh timeframe of supply gains control {image}
I notice on your gold chart that you have your downward trend line being broken in HTF demand. Does this have to be? What if the trend line gets broke before price reaches the HTF? After all price might fake out and stop you out then.

Stockguy
  • #6,318
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:53am Oct 6, 2015 8:53am
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} I notice on your gold chart that you have your downward trend line being broken in HTF demand. Does this have to be? What if the trend line gets broke before price reaches the HTF? After all price might fake out and stop you out then. Stockguy
Bear trendline broken = demand formed. Nested within bigger timeframes? Higher odds. Fakeout? Next one We can't control that, next one, next one!
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,319
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:59am Oct 6, 2015 8:59am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Thanks for your introduction my friend. Take your time, there is a lot of information to be digested in the thread! Looking forward to hearing from your contributions. Cheers, Alfonso
Thanks, Alfonso. I want to be as thorough as possible with the education aspect of this. I want to build a firm and true foundation... "per the rules."
  • #6,320
  • Oct 6, 2015 9:12am Oct 6, 2015 9:12am
What do you guys think of this?
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