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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #7,281
  • Oct 1, 2015 4:15am Oct 1, 2015 4:15am
Quoting lukis
I know, I have studied this a lot! I am asking on practical approach and statistical analysis...
Hi Lukis,

I've done some statistics on 4h chart EUR/USD in the past for over 150 cases:
overall success rate (hitting ML or 90% of ML): 71.43%

within that 71%:
success 90%* hit: 23.33%
success ML hit: 76.67%

I'm in the middle of doing another statistics with this (EUR/USD tick charts), will take couple of weeks and can post over here if anybody's interested.

*as per Tim Morge suggestion of looking for 90% of the ML

all the best
Chris
  • #7,282
  • Oct 1, 2015 4:18am Oct 1, 2015 4:18am
Quoting chr1s
{quote} Hi Lukis, I've done some statistics on 4h chart EUR/USD in the past for over 150 cases: overall success rate (hitting ML or 90% of ML): 71.43% within that 71%: success 90%* hit: 23.33% success ML hit: 76.67% I'm in the middle of doing another statistics with this (EUR/USD tick charts), will take couple of weeks and can post over here if anybody's interested. *as per Tim Morge suggestion of looking for 90% of the ML all the best Chris
Thanks, chr1s. Tim's work is great.
What I am thinking of is to start TWO pairs with TWO H1&H4 timeframes to be expert with this. Not to jump over several pairs and look for fake signals...
  • #7,283
  • Oct 1, 2015 4:23am Oct 1, 2015 4:23am
Quoting lukis
{quote} Thanks, chr1s. Tim's work is great. What I am thinking of is to start TWO pairs with TWO H1&H4 timeframes to be expert with this. Not to jump over several pairs and look for fake signals...
No worries,

I'm more interested in the general direction of the market as I found that it's really hard to use them for intraday trading.

I failed to mention that to pick pivots I had to have prev high or low violated.

Good luck
Chris
  • #7,284
  • Oct 1, 2015 4:30am Oct 1, 2015 4:30am
If you stay here within thread I will post some stuff to let you know what I see on the chart before going live.
  • #7,285
  • Oct 1, 2015 4:59am Oct 1, 2015 4:59am
Quoting chr1s
{quote} I failed to mention that to pick pivots I had to have prev high or low violated. Good luck Chris
What do you mean by that?
  • #7,286
  • Oct 1, 2015 5:19am Oct 1, 2015 5:19am
Quoting lukis
{quote} What do you mean by that?
it means I was interested in change of the behaviour (thick pitchforks on the screenshot) rather than nearest pivot points (tiny ones).
Makes sense but it's worth mentioning as the original course talks about (P - pivots):
"draw in the MLs from each P bisecting the distance between the 2 latest alternate Ps"

and one has to specify how they choose those pivots as soon as possible.

Have you done any statistics on median lines?
I'm yet to check Schiff and the probabilities.

All the best
Chris
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  • #7,287
  • Oct 1, 2015 5:47am Oct 1, 2015 5:47am
Quoting chr1s
{quote} it means I was interested in change of the behaviour (thick pitchforks on the screenshot) rather than nearest pivot points (tiny ones). Makes sense but it's worth mentioning as the original course talks about (P - pivots): "draw in the MLs from each P bisecting the distance between the 2 latest alternate Ps" and one has to specify how they choose those pivots as soon as possible. Have you done any statistics on median lines? I'm yet to check Schiff and the probabilities. All the best Chris {image}
See this, recently I have tried to link following pitchforks so 3rd comes from 2 and this from 1st. 1st is major.
When you operate on pivots it will be:
1 2 3 4 5
x x x x x


The graph shows EU on H4.
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  • #7,288
  • Oct 1, 2015 6:00am Oct 1, 2015 6:00am
Quoting lukis
{quote} See this, recently I have tried to link following pitchforks so 3rd comes from 2 and this from 1st. 1st is major. When you operate on pivots it will be: 1 2 3 4 5 x x x x x 1 2 3 - biggest pitchfork 1 2 3 - second 1 2 3 - third, fake, not formed yet The graph shows EU on H4. {image}
I've tried this approach in the past with no significant luck. Drawing them in a similar fashion I caught myself trying to pick the bottom/top which was a recipe for a disaster. Additionally that way it was very subjective as I thought the price were moving so I would draw a fork without a clearer ability to test and be consistent with drawing allowing me to actually enter a trade.

cheers
Chris
  • #7,289
  • Oct 1, 2015 6:28am Oct 1, 2015 6:28am
OK, so best option would be to draw on early pivots and see how price reacts on (upper/lower) median lines?
  • #7,290
  • Oct 1, 2015 6:51am Oct 1, 2015 6:51am
Quoting lukis
OK, so best option would be to draw on early pivots and see how price reacts on (upper/lower) median lines?
It would be similar to catching top/bottom and a lot of fake signals if you had 2 legged correction without violating previous structure high/low. Market structure is the key over here to identify potential pivots and without a proper frame for a fork it's guessing. Please remember that the price will consolidate at ML so constantly drawing an early pivot can potentially chop one up. In general yes, to trade it you've got to have a confirmation that the fork describes proper frequency (example 5-7 bars in after a pivot it returns and shows signs of "interacting" with a line) unless you're interested in "corner trade" etc.

In general you're right but I've found that a lot of the time the price didn't give me that confirmation before it hit the median line.

In your example 1,2,3 fork, is that a failure? Is it a confirmation now? Should you draw sliding parallel? What about the trigger line?
In 2,3,4 is that a failure as well? But it kept bouncing of the lower ML, will it go to the warning line? Again what about trigger line?

Market structure, potential S/R zones, mean reversion, volume etc play significant role in picking the correct pivots. Whatever your method will be, try to be consistent with it this way at least you can pull some statistics whether it's working out or not.

Good luck
Chris
  • #7,291
  • Oct 2, 2015 4:46am Oct 2, 2015 4:46am
Quoting pipgame
{quote} Hi lukis... action - reaction (andrews pitchfork) works on everything, even on weather....... and on all timefrimes, even on 1 minute

Even on NFL football games.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...45#post6945145
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #7,292
  • Oct 2, 2015 6:21am Oct 2, 2015 6:21am
Dear All,

Any news about EagleStar? I am missing him from last many days.

Regards,
Azfar
  • #7,293
  • Oct 4, 2015 2:59am Oct 4, 2015 2:59am
Quoting chr1s
{quote} It would be similar to catching top/bottom and a lot of fake signals if you had 2 legged correction without violating previous structure high/low. Market structure is the key over here to identify potential pivots and without a proper frame for a fork it's guessing. Please remember that the price will consolidate at ML so constantly drawing an early pivot can potentially chop one up. In general yes, to trade it you've got to have a confirmation that the fork describes proper frequency (example 5-7 bars in after a pivot it returns and shows...
i agree chris very important to observe the flow before drawing, confirming.
In my early days, also found was "picking" as you mentioned.
  • #7,294
  • Oct 4, 2015 3:18am Oct 4, 2015 3:18am
euro. daily slope
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  • #7,295
  • Oct 5, 2015 7:31am Oct 5, 2015 7:31am
Quoting shagrz
euro. daily slope {image}
its a mod schiff the grey is action
  • #7,296
  • Oct 5, 2015 2:03pm Oct 5, 2015 2:03pm
Gbp/Nzd H1 Oct5
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  • #7,297
  • Oct 6, 2015 2:23am Oct 6, 2015 2:23am
Quoting shagrz
{quote} its a mod schiff the grey is action
..
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  • #7,298
  • Oct 6, 2015 1:28pm Oct 6, 2015 1:28pm
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  • #7,299
  • Edited 2:46pm Oct 7, 2015 1:36am | Edited 2:46pm
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  • #7,300
  • Edited 10:43am Oct 8, 2015 10:28am | Edited 10:43am
This is in response to Lukis.

I have been trying to master forks for years now with zero success. As soon as I think I have it, I don't. I usually pick the wrong pivots and get busted out. I have tried everything...looking at shorter time frames, longer time frames, framing etc, but to no avail. I usually see a short and a long trade on each fork and I am never sure which one to chose...the one I ultimately chose has been wrong. I subscribed to market geometry for 18 months but that didn't help me either. The service was good but I couldn't get it. I entered trades around what I thought was structure only to get blown out of the water nearly every time.

For example I have attached a chart of the EU that I am looking at. But as usual I am confused.....is there a long trade at the grey area? A short trade at the pink dot? Am I choosing the proper pivots? Are my forks even correct?

Any discussion would be appreciated.

Thanks
Frustrated and Confused
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