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  • #10,901
  • Oct 5, 2015 11:49am Oct 5, 2015 11:49am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah man, the famous "V" reversal, wet dream of any bull...
No reason to sell off with the Fed pushing liftoff out to post-December....I might set up some vix spike traps for the Dec FOMC, but, really (oh no! deja vu) do you really think Granma Yellen will crash the stawk market on Xmas Eve? No......InSanta rally coming, one more for the Gipper.

I have SPY Oct/Oct4 diagonals, one at $199/$200 I am trying to close for small gain now, others are $205/$206 and $206/$207 - those look better if we are in for a V-bottom for sure. Looking for a break of $200 this week. Maybe I am wrong, though, and earnings will disappoint across the board?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,902
  • Oct 5, 2015 1:13pm Oct 5, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting The Fool
I have SPY Oct/Oct4 diagonals, one at $199/$200 I am trying to close for small gain now, others are $205/$206 and $206/$207 - those look better if we are in for a V-bottom for sure. Looking for a break of $200 this week.
...also have some Oct/O4 SPY $207/$208 calls diag, and a same dates $200 calls calendar.....also lots of VXX dump action....only bearish thing I have is a TLT $130 calendar for O/O4 --- TLT fickle mofo could go up in a bull run, too, just buy everything....I need to find some time to put on November trades....

...anybody setting up any earnings trades?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,903
  • Oct 5, 2015 5:09pm Oct 5, 2015 5:09pm
Quoting The Fool
natgas collapse, longs are tempting....no, not really {image}
Got plenty of time on my 12/13 Jan debit spread, but it's looking less than promising at this point ... . May bail if I can get back to scratch ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,904
  • Oct 5, 2015 5:15pm Oct 5, 2015 5:15pm
I'm sure the day will come & natgas will spike on a deep freeze, but you could go broke throwing change at that - nobody thinks it will be this winter, anyway -- easier trades to be found....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,905
  • Oct 5, 2015 5:27pm Oct 5, 2015 5:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ...also have some Oct/O4 SPY $207/$208 calls diag, and a same dates $200 calls calendar.....also lots of VXX dump action....only bearish thing I have is a TLT $130 calendar for O/O4 --- TLT fickle mofo could go up in a bull run, too, just buy everything....I need to find some time to put on November trades.... ...anybody setting up any earnings trades?
That YUM IC didn't fill, which was probs a good thing ... . You're right about the spreads there ... .

I'll look at MON tomorrow, but the spreads look unfriendly ... . Otherwise, I'm probs just going to sit on my hands and wait for the biggies next week: NFLX, GOOG.

I may consider adding some SPY short delta on this upmove; I'm thinking a Nov 20th expiry 207/210 short call vert (some of the weekly calls above 205 are unavailable). Can't believe I'm talking about crap in the vicinity of 210 basically a little more than a month after the break of 204 ... . Rather unbelievably, I can still almost get a buck out of a 3-wide 181/184/207/210 IC for Nov 20th, which goes for .95 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,906
  • Oct 5, 2015 5:36pm Oct 5, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} That YUM IC didn't fill, which was probs a good thing ... . You're right about the spreads there ... . I'll look at MON tomorrow, but the spreads look unfriendly ... . Otherwise, I'm probs just going to sit on my hands and wait for the biggies next week: NFLX, GOOG. I may consider adding some SPY short delta on this upmove; I'm thinking a Nov 20th expiry 207/210 short call vert (some of the weekly calls above 205 are unavailable). Can't believe I'm talking about crap in the vicinity of 210 basically a little more than a month after the break...
But QQQ has the slight volatility edge, followed by IWM, DIA, and then SPY, so it might be slightly more worthwhile to put on a QQQ trade instead of a SPY ... . Like a 111/114 Short Call Vert, Nov 20th expiry -- .51 credit/contract. The weeklies are slightly unworkable on the call side now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,907
  • Oct 5, 2015 5:41pm Oct 5, 2015 5:41pm
Looked at VXX or UVXY short put credit spreads, but price isn't close enough yet to where I want to put those ... . Some of the profitable put spreads that make sense from a price action standpoint are within striking range -- maybe strikes sub-32 for UVXY and sub-19 for VXX ... . Dunno.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,908
  • Oct 5, 2015 5:42pm Oct 5, 2015 5:42pm
if'n Ima go $3 wide I wants $0.60 either side minimum, no exceptions --- and really I am looking for $0.75 or better. I don't mind looking 45 dte + a little more (maybe 60 max) to get it, but if I gotta tie up $3 margin, I need to get paid.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,909
  • Oct 5, 2015 5:48pm Oct 5, 2015 5:48pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Looked at VXX or UVXY short put credit spreads,
if we can stack up a couple tall green weekly candles on the indices, I think sub $30 UVXY and sub $19 VXX are doable in October. December will bring the next FOMC angst, possibly another govt shutdown scare - so if we could get a deep vix dip by the end of the month a trader could start thinking about speculative long vix trades - I will have my eye on bflys and wild otm diagonals
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,910
  • Oct 5, 2015 6:13pm Oct 5, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting The Fool
if'n Ima go $3 wide I wants $0.60 either side minimum, no exceptions --- and really I am looking for $0.75 or better. I don't mind looking 45 dte + a little more (maybe 60 max) to get it, but if I gotta tie up $3 margin, I need to get paid.
I think that mid-March to end-August low vol environment broke me a little bit ... . Compared to that period, 1.00 is fantastic for the whole set-up, but in the grander scheme of things, meh ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,911
  • Oct 6, 2015 10:32am Oct 6, 2015 10:32am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} But QQQ has the slight volatility edge, followed by IWM, DIA, and then SPY ... .
Yes it does. Looking at /NQ now, it is -0.50%, while /YM is +0.40% and /ES practically UNCH.
IBB to blame the most (down 5% currently), IMO, then AAPL, NFLX, TSLA...
I know nothing about biotech, so I mostly trade /NQ


Addon
Just look at /CL rally... and I looked yesterday at some Dec 44 puts to sell... Looking at weekly it is in it 6th week of consolidation.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,912
  • Edited 12:23pm Oct 6, 2015 11:43am | Edited 12:23pm
Quoting The Fool
if we can stack up a couple tall green weekly candles on the indices,
lol, I never said it would be easy....

...actually, a pullback helps my SPY trades - I need SPY to move on $200 next week, and on up to $205+ in Oct4.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,913
  • Oct 6, 2015 3:41pm Oct 6, 2015 3:41pm
oil price to benefit from US production slide.....someday....still throwing change at wide USO vertical spreads - all have been losers in 2015....nothing earlier than Q2 2016.....$60-$65 or even better would be no surprise by then.....but, I said something similar in the past year....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-...174445476.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,914
  • Oct 6, 2015 3:42pm Oct 6, 2015 3:42pm
YUM spreads tightened up during the day, so I slapped on a trade. Gonna regret it, I'm sure; YUM off 13.00 in AH trade, breaching my short side ... . Nature of the beast.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,915
  • Oct 6, 2015 3:52pm Oct 6, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
YUM spreads tightened up during the day, so I slapped on a trade. Gonna regret it, I'm sure; YUM off 13.00 in AH trade, breaching my short side ... . Nature of the beast.
...maybe SPY saw that and crapped, down $0.75 AH....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,916
  • Oct 6, 2015 3:56pm Oct 6, 2015 3:56pm
Yikes, YUM bum whacked some - down near $15, what was your put spread?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,917
  • Oct 6, 2015 5:09pm Oct 6, 2015 5:09pm
Quoting The Fool
Yikes, YUM bum whacked some - down near $15, what was your put spread?
It was an IC ... . The call side will expire worthless (yay!); the put side was 72/75 (*$!@), so I'll be rolling that thing for several cycles to get back to scratch I'm sure, but no worries ... .

Looking at Dough's Robyn's 78/88 short strangle, I don't feel so bad ... . That's gonna hurt ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,918
  • Oct 6, 2015 5:22pm Oct 6, 2015 5:22pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
It was an IC ... . The call side will expire worthless (yay!); the put side was 72/75 (*$!@), so I'll be rolling that thing for several cycles to get back to scratch I'm sure, but no worries ... . Looking at Dough's Robyn's 78/88 short strangle, I don't feel so bad ... . That's gonna hurt ... .
ok denn, if you gave yourself time to roll it - I used to play these on a 2-3dte weekly, some that blew past my short strike with no time left are among the worst trades I ever did....$10 wide is just insane...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,919
  • Oct 6, 2015 5:23pm Oct 6, 2015 5:23pm
what other bigger names released today? Whatever they were seems they were also leaning red because SPY is down a buck ah
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,920
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:18pm Oct 6, 2015 8:18pm
Quoting The Fool
I have SPY Oct/Oct4 diagonals, one at $199/$200 I am trying to close for small gain now, others are $205/$206 and $206/$207 - those look better if we are in for a V-bottom for sure. Looking for a break of $200 this week. Maybe I am wrong, though, and earnings will disappoint across the board?
well, earnings might just suck as much as the pundits predict they will. I did close $199/$200 diagonals noted above - in for 8c out for 16c, so yeah, woohoo, net gain a nickel. If I coulda I woulda held off and worked some more time to get maybe a little more out, but when these diagonals start pushing up to the far b/e, staring down the death slide, maybe better to get out with small gain vs. risking a large loss.

Meanwhile, in case I have been wrong about a earnings season rally, I will shop for SPY puts diagonals
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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