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  • #8,741
  • Oct 3, 2015 7:07am Oct 3, 2015 7:07am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Forexd You are incorrect how I trade.I don't accept larger DD. Normal DD is expected meaning 20-50pips because price usually fluctuates in those range often (spikes stops taken) then turn intended direction and when position is too stretched I adjust positions accordingly . I do take losses I was up 48% equity last week of Sept and closed the month 37.15% still above my 20% a month goal. You are best follow this threads rule.I trade combination of this system plus style of trading that is inherently risky if you don't know what...
that is well sick buddy with your min DD - masterful
  • #8,742
  • Oct 3, 2015 7:17am Oct 3, 2015 7:17am
Quoting Davit
{quote} You are just sick puppy man. Isn't it great when it works like limit triggers on major news.Love that. Continue to inspire us
i didnt get all out!!! @ the end thou - i am working on the scripts next and make them expire - this gave me a new idea so will work on it next - it should be gap'n for next W1 - could blow account - using Subrina's analysis you see the MN is around 310-360pips from TL [kiss me thrice play] - the W1 looks like angry bear & the D1 has been cry'n ABCD for some time - the H4 has been sideway long time ... im going to a dress up par-ty now [its one for the money baby ] ... enjoy the weekend buddy
  • #8,743
  • Oct 3, 2015 12:44pm Oct 3, 2015 12:44pm
Griffin I hope it works out for you those loose ends.

Article I read is interesting which kind of relates to EG

"Global growth worries adding to calls for further ECB policy loosening. With Eurozone inflation slipping below zero in last week's data and softness in closely watched measures of inflation expectations, comments from ECB President Draghi (Tue) and the minutes of the ECB's September policy meeting (Thu) will be judged in the context of a possible extension of the ECB's QE. Nevertheless, with the political capital for an expanded programme hard to amass, the ECB is likely to await more convincing evidence of slippage relative to its recent forecasts.

BoJ and RBA could be readier to act. With Australia on the front line of weakness of commodities and emerging markets, and its monetary policy still having scope to readily ease from its current 2% rate, the RBA could adopt a pro-active stance (Tue). The likelihood of a move, however, was seen as remote by markets in advance of the weak US labour market data. Similarly, the BoJ's policy decision (Wed) was seen as having an outside chance of an expanded stimulus, against a backdrop of accumulating evidence of economic weakness and softening inflation expectations. However, BoJ Governor Kuroda has given no strong steer on an imminent expansion of QE, and the BoJ's next end-Oct meeting would give sight of further data in the interim.

Contrast between domestic and external pressures sharpening for the MPC. The BoE's policy decision (Thu) - with no change still universally expected - was arguably becoming a more balanced call. Following Blue Book revisions to the profile of recent GDP growth, the acceleration in domestic cost pressures is sharper than on previous estimates, with unit labour cost growth now close to historic averages. Meanwhile, the recent softening of the sterling trade-weighted exchange rate should ease concerns about imported disinflation. These could prompt some more hawkish MPC members to see the balance of risks becoming more skewed to an inflation overshoot. As the November Inflation Report would provide a natural stocktake of the competing influences - including any weaker assessment of UK-weighted world growth prospects - we do not expect a shift in the voting pattern.

UK activity data to show signs of recovery. The coming week also sees a number of key UK releases which will flesh out the Q3 activity picture. The services PMI (Mon), industrial production (Wed) and construction output (Fri) will all need to be seen in the context of the revised activity profile following the Blue Book revisions."

So we got opposite fundamentals happening
Euro looking to further QE and UK showing greener numbers hence EG will continue resume downtrend.Lately its becoming my most profitable pair shorting every rally.

Biggest positions I have now is GU longs.With poor Sept MF numbers and Job report I anticipate USD decline to continue.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,744
  • Oct 3, 2015 1:04pm Oct 3, 2015 1:04pm
I am a big fan of Kathy Lien
Her most recent article she wrote is very insightful

http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dai...up/2015/10/02/

Investors sold U.S. dollars aggressively after this morning's abysmal non-farm payrolls report crushed hopes for an October rate hike by the Federal Reserve. In fact if there are no revisions next month and payroll growth rises by less than 200k in October and November, a December rate is also off the table. In September, Janet Yellen made it very clear that they are want to see further job growth but instead of gaining strength, labor market activity deteriorated significantly last month. As a result, rate hike expectations have collapsed with Fed fund futures now pricing in only 30% chance of tightening before the end of the year compared to 45% chance pre-NFP. So it should be no surprise that the dollar adjusted as well. However by the end of the North American session the greenback clawed back its losses on the premise that of the large number of Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak next week many will continue to throw their support behind 2015 tightening.

But talk is cheap when data is weak. Only 142k jobs were created in the month of September and the August figures were revised down to 136k from 173k. More importantly average hourly earnings growth was flat, which was much weaker than the market anticipated and while the unemployment rate remained unchanged the participation rate dropped to its lowest level in 38 years. In order for the bulls to return to the dollar we need more than talk from U.S. policymakers. U.S. data needs to surprise positively and in very big ways. Non-manufacturing ISM is the most important U.S. economic report on the calendar next week. The Fed minutes are also scheduled for release and that may have a more significant impact on the dollar.

EUR/USD soared above 1.13 intraday on the back of the weaker U.S. labor market report before settling back near 1.12. Today's price action was driven exclusively by the market's appetite for U.S. dollars because Eurozone data surprised to the downside. Producer prices came out much weaker than expected with PPI falling for the second month in a row by -0.8%, the largest decline in 7 months. Deflation is not a major concern for ECB officials but the recent trend of inflation reports combined with low commodity prices adds pressure on the central bank to ease. Additional easing is not necessary at this time but these weak reports along with softer data from Germany will keep euro from rallying too much. There are only a handful of Eurozone economic reports scheduled for release next week - none of which are extremely market moving. We have revisions to the PMI Composite, German Industrial Production and the Trade Balance. ECB President Draghi is also scheduled to speak but given that the forum is the Art on Site Inauguration, he may not touch on the economy or monetary policy.

For the first time in 11 trading days, sterling ended the North American session with some decent gains versus the U.S. dollar. We are looking for a further near term rally in GBP/USD because when the pair turns, the reversal can be strong but the sustainability of gains hinges on theBank of England who has a monetary policy announcement next week. While no changes are expected the BoE now releases the minutes at the same time as their statement and the number of dissenters as well as the overall tone of the central bank could have a big impact on how sterling trades. Last month, only 1 member of the monetary policy committee voted to raise interest rates and the central bank as a whole did not sound overly concerned about global developments or domestic conditions. While they lowered their Q3 growth forecast, they made no mention of the downside surprises in the PMIs and instead said productivity has begun to increase and core inflation may be firming. They believed that domestic demand would help erode spare capacity in the coming year. On balance their comments suggested that they are still looking to raise rates next year but want to see what the Fed does first.

All 3 of the commodity currencies moved higher today but the shallowest gains were in AUD/USD. Next week is a big week for the Australian dollar with PMI services, the trade balance report and a Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy announcement on the calendar. Given the recent improvement in economic data including last night's retail sales number and this week's PMI manufacturing index, the RBA is not expected to lower rates. However the relative weakness in AUD reflects the market's expectations for continued dovishness from the central bank.

The risk is to the downside for the Japanese Yen next week. While the Bank of Japan is not expected to change monetary policy, Japanese data has taken a turn for the worse as the stimulative impact of Abenomics begins to fade. Easing in late October in Q4 remains a possibility for Japan and if the Bank of Japan reinforces this possibility with dovish comments the Yen could extend lower.

USD/CAD, which extended its losses today post NFP is in play next week with the country's trade balance, IVEY PMI and employment reports scheduled for release. Steady job growth is expected and we are looking for the recent stabilization in oil prices to encourage an uptick in manufacturing activity. Like AUD and CAD, NZD traded higher today on the back of USD dollar and a strong rebound in the ANZ Commodity Price index."

Come on guys isn't she just fantastic?This is a goldmine of viewpoints logically conceived and executed.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,745
  • Oct 3, 2015 4:33pm Oct 3, 2015 4:33pm
Good information, can you give some tips on exit strategy? What you are looking for, like price action changing or TDI going flat or is it more of a feeling?
Thanks!

Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Forexd You are incorrect how I trade.I don't accept larger DD. Normal DD is expected meaning 20-50pips because price usually fluctuates in those range often (spikes stops taken) then turn intended direction and when position is too stretched I adjust positions accordingly . I do take losses I was up 48% equity last week of Sept and closed the month 37.15% still above my 20% a month goal. You are best follow this threads rule.I trade combination of this system plus style of trading that is inherently risky if you don't know what you are...
  • #8,746
  • Oct 3, 2015 5:05pm Oct 3, 2015 5:05pm
Quoting Davit
We are looking for a further near term rally in GBP/USD because when the pair turns, the reversal can be strong but the sustainability of gains hinges on theBank of England who has a monetary policy announcement.
When she says further rally, does she mean bull rally or bear rally?
  • #8,747
  • Oct 3, 2015 9:28pm Oct 3, 2015 9:28pm
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} ... ... you guys .... ... this is so like the coolest thread .... NFP Slam play from the book of D - been track'n UJ for a while - thought id go the slam top/bottom - bottom won trades were a mix of - Risk:R - 50:50 / 50:100 / 50:150 / 50:200 - i was drop'n um like it was a brutal dubstep

well done , you squeezed the market
  • #8,748
  • Oct 3, 2015 10:04pm Oct 3, 2015 10:04pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Forexd You are incorrect how I trade.I don't accept larger DD. Normal DD is expected meaning 20-50pips because price usually fluctuates in those range often (spikes stops taken) then turn intended direction and when position is too stretched I adjust positions accordingly . I do take losses I was up 48% equity last week of Sept and closed the month 37.15% still above my 20% a month goal. You are best follow this threads rule.I trade combination of this system plus style of trading that is inherently risky if you don't know what you are...
" Scared brain does stupid things. " exactly !

No matter what strategies, what indicators, what skills you are using for trading, although all are inter-connected to each other, but only the rational and mathematical position size and strong money management will turn your dreams to the reality.

Mostly professional says, use 1-3 % for every position, ok , I partially agree, but assume you have hard earned your money penny by penny and you are willing to lose $100 for each position. Ok this is mathematical part, but DO YOU REALLY READY TO LOSE $100 OF YOUR HARD EARNED PENNIES IN ONE SINGLE TRADE, EVEN IF YOU FOLLOW THE %1-3 CLASSIC RULE ?

In my opinion the percentage must be multiplied to the trader's tolerance and acceptance of losing trade which is like a finger print and is different from a trader to another one.

If you are scared even by following 1% rule, then as Davit said, " your brain will be scared, as a result will do stupid things ".

So it's better to reduce the size maybe to 0.5% 0.3% for every trade to find your comfort zone. So when you open some position, you can freely and dynamically wait, response and make the best judgment until closing whether you lose or win by the end. In either way, you are still in your comfort zone.

If you open some positions, and check them every minute and watchdog the positions and can't sleep well, you are most likely to lose your money, not because you are in wrong side of the market, the only reason is because: " Scared brain does stupid things. "
  • #8,749
  • Oct 3, 2015 10:15pm Oct 3, 2015 10:15pm
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  • #8,750
  • Oct 3, 2015 10:59pm Oct 3, 2015 10:59pm
Quoting Gdi
{quote} When she says further rally, does she mean bull rally or bear rally?
bull rally! in context of poor NFP MF numbers and BOC staying neutral
Seriously did you read the article from the beginning? You should follow the news and events and have an idea where market is heading.
How can there be Bear rally after poor NFP? Not likely.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,751
  • Oct 3, 2015 11:02pm Oct 3, 2015 11:02pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} bull rally! in context of poor NFP MF numbers and BOC staying neutral Seriously did you read the article from the beginning? You should follow the news and events and have an idea where market is heading. How can there be Bear rally after poor NFP? Not likely.
What article? I just throw out random questions hoping someone will fall for it and answer it.
What bull rally the dollar went down. Seriously did you read the charts?
  • #8,752
  • Oct 3, 2015 11:08pm Oct 3, 2015 11:08pm
Quoting forexdave1
Good information, can you give some tips on exit strategy? What you are looking for, like price action changing or TDI going flat or is it more of a feeling? Thanks! {quote}
Let me get this straight out.Nothing in trading is based on "feeling" Trading is combination of technical analyses and fundamentals.One is not separate from the other.Charts provide key areas of interest where price turns but fundamentals drive the market direction.In my view one should be aware of both.
Follow this thread's rules please and you'll do fine Page 1and keep up with the news.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,753
  • Oct 3, 2015 11:14pm Oct 3, 2015 11:14pm
Quoting Gdi
{quote} What article? I just throw out random questions hoping someone will fall for it and answer it. What bull rally the dollar went down. Seriously did you read the charts?
Quoting Gdi
{quote} When she says further rally, does she mean bull rally or bear rally?
Obviously it was not random question because you said SHE and article I posted was by Kathy lien.Its rather disingenuous on your part pretending your inquire was random.
Welcome to my ignore list
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,754
  • Oct 3, 2015 11:38pm Oct 3, 2015 11:38pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} {quote} Obviously it was not random question because you said SHE and article I posted was by Kathy lien.Its rather disingenuous on your part pretending your inquire was random. Welcome to my ignore list {image}
Thank you. Best compliments ever!!!!
  • #8,755
  • Oct 4, 2015 2:52am Oct 4, 2015 2:52am
Quoting Davit
I am a big fan of Kathy Lien Her most recent article she wrote is very insightful http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dai...up/2015/10/02/ Investors sold U.S. dollars aggressively after this morning's abysmal non-farm payrolls report crushed hopes for an October rate hike by the Federal Reserve. In fact if there are no revisions next month and payroll growth rises by less than 200k in October and November, a December rate is also off the table. In September, Janet Yellen made it very clear that they are want to see further...
superb posts D - many many thnx for your time to do these post - they are XAU to me ...... i dont just read them and thats it - i try and look things up and find things for myself based on your info

Quoting Subrina_FX
{image} {image} {image} {image}
wow - these are amazing trades - your skill set is like so on the horizon - like mirage territory
  • #8,756
  • Oct 4, 2015 4:42am Oct 4, 2015 4:42am
Quoting likica
{quote} nice 50+++++I have to admit that I have no clue how you got in those. mind to share, thanks buddy
ok - i need to explain a few things first - the first thing is the idea of cause & effect - the easiest way to tinks about that is to take two currencies [Bicore] - the idea still applies to more currencies [tricore / quadcore etc]

say you have EUR and USD then pretend you can make two pairs from this EU and UE [makes no sense in reality but good for understanding ] - now wat you can not say is if UE goes down 'then' EU will go up - this is the wrong way to tinks about it - you have to say if UE goes down EU will go up at the 'same time' - there is no cause & effect happening [i am only look'n @ this from tech level not fundie]

now things get more hard to tinks about when its tricore - say EUR / USD / AUD - and you must understand something first - say i give you the price for EA [say its 2.00000] but you can not look @ EU and AU charts - even thou you can always combine EU and AU at any tick to give EA [EA's legs - look @ this http://www.babypips.com/school/high-...oss-pair.html] you can not build their charts from that info - you are missing one bit of info - there are 50 billion different charts for EU and AU that will still give you [email protected] - but - if i give you say AU and EU then you can build EA price by price - now you can see there is no cause & effect working here - there cant be cause theres no independence pair by pair you can now move to quadcore and i will show you a easy way to see this and i use this in my trades

theres just one more thing i have to explain the type of intermarket corr traders use is explained @ babypips http://www.babypips.com/school/under...s-it-gets.html there may well be cause & effect @ work here - say on a fundie level - so like gold is pos corr to AU and everyone and his dog rushed for Gold so AU also went with etc this is not the type of corr i am talk'n about when i say half-linked [dancing] pairs are [locally] corr - cause there will always be a linking pair it just wont be their legs - when this dance end i revert back to LW's tricore system if i have to
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  • #8,757
  • Oct 4, 2015 4:52am Oct 4, 2015 4:52am
...wat you are really doing is using a quadcore system [in disguise] but with much less info needed because you have thrown out the AUX and LINKING pairs - but this comes @ a price cause you must have this all in your head some how?

here is the chart for the dancing pair EA & GA - and there will be similar for other dancers
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  • #8,758
  • Oct 4, 2015 5:01am Oct 4, 2015 5:01am
...so the next step is to have a dance floor by intro'n a secondary link for each set of dancers... this happens every few W1s to MN

here is the chart for two dancing pairs for example - under the EG link ...
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  • #8,759
  • Oct 5, 2015 12:38am Oct 5, 2015 12:38am
Hi guys quiet here.
Still holding GU longs.These are just fundemetal trades that I am targeting 1.55+
Price is between R38 and S38 need to break 5237-40 for continued bull drive to next R61 5268-70
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,760
  • Oct 5, 2015 12:45am Oct 5, 2015 12:45am
view from TMS30
yellow boxes are crosses
Here is a tip I noticed.As long as higher TF 1h 4h are on TDI 50 and above then trend is still holding up and you may add to positions.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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