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  • #10,841
  • Sep 27, 2015 4:01am Sep 27, 2015 4:01am
well
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,842
  • Sep 27, 2015 6:28pm Sep 27, 2015 6:28pm
Quoting The Fool
just looked in on the Dough traders, haven't looked at the site in a few months - I see lots of variety, Robyn's trades are good to follow & see how she adjusts......Mexican Tony does some interesting trades...I was with him on this PBR stock trade, something to stick in the IRA because it will double in a year or 3.... {image}
I like this trade, just not necessarily at this point ... . Of course, I may wait too long for further dippage and whiff on the opportunity ... . I may be getting greedy by waiting for new all-time lows .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,843
  • Sep 27, 2015 6:42pm Sep 27, 2015 6:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I like this trade, just not necessarily at this point ... . Of course, I may wait too long for further dippage and whiff on the opportunity ... . I may be getting greedy by waiting for new all-time lows .... .
I think with PBR, I am going to approach the thing in my typically conservative fashion, selling a 3.5 put, Nov monthly expiry, for a .32 credit and see if it gets filled. I'd be fine with taking assignment at 3.5, which would only involve tying up $300 odd bucks and then (maybe) work it as a covered call (although it's looking like the call side blows for doing that).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,844
  • Sep 27, 2015 9:43pm Sep 27, 2015 9:43pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I think with PBR, I am going to approach the thing in my typically conservative fashion, selling a 3.5 put, Nov monthly expiry, for a .32 credit and see if it gets filled. I'd be fine with taking assignment at 3.5, which would only involve tying up $300 odd bucks and then (maybe) work it as a covered call (although it's looking like the call side blows for doing that).
that's a good way to go on cheap stocks, if it doesn't hit your strike, at least you got paid, & can do it again, until you get in, or change your mind.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,845
  • Sep 27, 2015 10:12pm Sep 27, 2015 10:12pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I think with PBR, I am going to approach the thing in my typically conservative fashion,
a short term gamble on Brazil probably ill-advised, but over time, lots of potential, and oil won't stay cheap 4ever....if SA blinks in the game of chicken, and oil goes back to $65+, I'd bet we would see PBR move back to $9-$12 range pdq. $100 oil and PBR would be $30+.....PBR traded near $78 at the May '08 oil peak.

Meanwhile, /CL dipping and maybe should be expected to do that more in the low season, so PBR may follow and be had for $3.xx again...$3.50 assignment in November? Maybe....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,846
  • Sep 27, 2015 11:15pm Sep 27, 2015 11:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} a short term gamble on Brazil probably ill-advised, but over time, lots of potential, and oil won't stay cheap 4ever....if SA blinks in the game of chicken, and oil goes back to $65+, I'd bet we would see PBR move back to $9-$12 range pdq. $100 oil and PBR would be $30+.....PBR traded near $78 at the May '08 oil peak. Meanwhile, /CL dipping and maybe should be expected to do that more in the low season, so PBR may follow and be had for $3.xx again...$3.50 assignment in November? Maybe....
I generally don't like to get assigned, but this thing is so cheap and has so much upside potential/limited downside ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,847
  • Sep 27, 2015 11:24pm Sep 27, 2015 11:24pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I generally don't like to get assigned, but this thing is so cheap and has so much upside potential/limited downside ... .
hey if you wants the shares, go for it....I'm just buying em outright, don't want to tie up margin I can use better elsewhere....PBR a no-brainer IF you have time....it might take a couple years, who knows, with Brazil in such a sorry state, but everything changes...hell Dilma could get impeached in the same month oil shoots to $80 and $4 PBR shares could be a 10-bagger
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,848
  • Sep 27, 2015 11:32pm Sep 27, 2015 11:32pm
The other cheap, beaten down, high vol oil play would be RIG ... . Because of the price of the underlying, it is more amenable to being worked via covered call post-assignment, although it will take more buying power that could be locked up for quite a bit of time while oil prices wait for OPEC to blink a couple of times ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,849
  • Sep 27, 2015 11:37pm Sep 27, 2015 11:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hey if you wants the shares, go for it....I'm just buying em outright, don't want to tie up margin I can use better elsewhere....PBR a no-brainer IF you have time....it might take a couple years, who knows, with Brazil in such a sorry state, but everything changes...hell Dilma could get impeached in the same month oil shoots to $80 and $4 PBR shares could be a 10-bagger
I'm kind of leaning that way ... . Just buying them outright; the difference between 3.50 shares and 4.00 shares is $50. The credit I would get out of selling a 3.5 put, minus fees and commissions, yada yada, would be negligible, so I'm being kinda stupid doing things that way with the price of the underlying being what it is ... . Wayy overthinking it ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,850
  • Sep 28, 2015 1:04am Sep 28, 2015 1:04am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
The other cheap, beaten down, high vol oil play would be RIG ...
high vol in the calls, all over 90%...I see RIG traded up to near $22 in Q2 '15...looking for opps there
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,851
  • Sep 28, 2015 1:32am Sep 28, 2015 1:32am
I lost money last week being long equities and short VIX, now I have not changed my bias & maybe the market is ready to come along my way, seeing /ES up a little early....a nice green week could bring VXX down to touch the 50sma, around $20.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,852
  • Sep 28, 2015 9:33am Sep 28, 2015 9:33am
Quoting The Fool
I lost money last week being long equities and short VIX, now I have not changed my bias & maybe the market is ready to come along my way, seeing /ES up a little early....a nice green week could bring VXX down to touch the 50sma, around $20..... {image}
Hi TF.
I think just more sideways to down action... market need a catalyst to go up from here. If none is given, IMO, we are going to test the Aug lows, but that also could be slowly. There are no rush to go lower (just compare the daily candles in Aug and these from the last week), but no will to go higher, either. A low confidence market. Maybe NFP will shake the market, OR it is waiting for the new ER's season to start. AA is on Oct 8th.

Right now, we have a bounce from 61.8 fib retrace on /ES (up move from Aug lows to the FOMC spike). That should hold for a while, IF market jumps above 1900 and stay there.

I had some really difficult shit in my personal life, and I am unable to trade like I should now. I had my monthly plan done in one moment of last Thursday, but then it was gone. I am still close to it, could made it today, but I completely blew one short order on /NQ. Took only breadcrumbs... at least I can feed some pigeons...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,853
  • Sep 28, 2015 1:21pm Sep 28, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting StrayDog
A low confidence market. ...
well you've been right about this US equity slide & I have been losing change trying to catch the falling knife. I have nothing to capitalize on heavy risk-off except a TLT $130 calendar for Oct, I believe.

m/l just watching....

I did put on the NFLX DD shown above, except $85/87 and $116/118
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,854
  • Sep 28, 2015 2:37pm Sep 28, 2015 2:37pm
can I get a V-bottom for the new quarter?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,855
  • Sep 28, 2015 2:41pm Sep 28, 2015 2:41pm
HYG...damn, I was about a week early on the $84p calendar .... I still think we will see stocks rally thru Oct & Nov.....still trowing change at short VXX and long SPY trades, details later
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,856
  • Sep 28, 2015 5:54pm Sep 28, 2015 5:54pm
Wow. Quite an end-of-the-month, scurry for cover sell-off ... . Still doing nondirectionally biased setups, but kind of expected 189 to hold up a little more firmly ... . Went down without a fight ... . But who knows what'll happen 10/1, BTFD or continued weakness ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,857
  • Sep 29, 2015 1:32am Sep 29, 2015 1:32am
futures pointing to another gap down....I am starting to look at selling SPY put spreads
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,858
  • Sep 29, 2015 8:40am Sep 29, 2015 8:40am
Quoting The Fool
futures pointing to another gap down....I am starting to look at selling SPY put spreads
wide strikes in the higher deltas (> .25) make building good put spreads problematic for SPY, IWM, QQQ.....have to go Nov1 (38dte) to get into $1 strike spreads down below SPY $180.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,859
  • Sep 29, 2015 9:02am Sep 29, 2015 9:02am
almost filled a SPY Nov1 $178/$175 bull puts for 60c credit, missed by a few minutes....will leave it on for the day....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,860
  • Sep 29, 2015 10:43am Sep 29, 2015 10:43am
Looking at /ES puts. Oct 1800 puts are almost $900 now, BUT on Reg-T account Maintenance Margin for selling it is about EUR 5,000 per contract... Yep, naked selling is for large PM accounts. But, there are spreads for the rest of us... Will prepare some of them in advance. Like perhaps Oct 1800/1830... about $7.25 now ($375), with margin of just EUR 500. Why not look for some of the Nov expiry also...

Addon
Interested in above plays if /ES makes a move to the Aug lows. I am expecting a bounce from there, IF we get there.

Addon 2
Anybody looking at RUT? Weak, very weak.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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