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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,041
  • Sep 23, 2015 12:56am Sep 23, 2015 12:56am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes agree. I expect a very slow and bumpy ride too... sisse
What do you expect of the ECB statement today? Nothing too bearish for EURUSD I presume, given your expectation that EUR is rather bullish. Or do you suspect that any negative statements for EUR will not have a significant impact on EUR downside and it will soon stabilize (buffer till 1.108 as you mentioned)?
  • #137,042
  • Edited 12:53pm Sep 23, 2015 11:39am | Edited 12:53pm
Quoting hathor
Bought 1.124xx area. in case of bounce, sl will trailing the move
was too early, nearly hit my stop, but daily buy signal has arrived with yesterday close, so there is a chance of surviving.If i would have been patient, than i would bought it at daily signal confirmation at 1.11191..and would be in a great situaton with fixed profit right now. Patient is a never ending lesson.
edited: 1.11133 -> 1.11191
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,043
  • Sep 23, 2015 1:06pm Sep 23, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting hathor
{quote} was too early, nearly hit my stop, but daily buy signal has arrived with yesterday close, so there is a chance of surviving.If i would have been patient, than i would bought it at daily signal confirmation at 1.11133..and would be in a great situaton with fixed profit right now. Patient is a never ending lesson.
.... good luck ...`

Quoting sisse
,,, Euro still trading down in a small measured move rolling a bit less bullish than yesterday but still in buying mode ... 1.117x as only level in play for the swing ...until then nothing to see, same levels, same trades, same all... sisse
No surprises as widely expected Euro back to 1.117x for today's close and ready for the moverss and shakers news of the week (ECB QE details and USD GDP ...) that will settle the Quarterly close.

On the rest of the board US equities and Oil coughing and entering in FOK (fill or kill) mode so no more room for playing around there while Gold in a uneventful day.

Euro only one to track for the roll so not much to do with same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,044
  • Sep 23, 2015 1:11pm Sep 23, 2015 1:11pm
TA in my opinion:
Daily: Buy since 1.111xx - [2015.09.22.]
Weekly: Buy since 1.099xx - [Open: 2015.05.25 / Close: 2015.05.29.]
Monthly: Buy since 1.073xx - [Open: 2015.03.01. / Close: 2015.03.31.]
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,045
  • Sep 24, 2015 2:43am Sep 24, 2015 2:43am
Quoting sisse
{quote} .... good luck ...` {quote} No surprises as widely expected Euro back to 1.117x for today's close and ready for the moverss and shakers news of the week (ECB QE details and USD GDP ...) that will settle the Quarterly close. On the rest of the board US equities and Oil coughing and entering in FOK (fill or kill) mode so no more room for playing around there while Gold in a uneventful day. Euro only one to track for the roll so not much to do with same levels, same trades, same all... sisse
Hi Sisse, what about DAX? Ive been thinking that if we get a dip today/tomorrow and previous low holds - it is an excelent opp to buy and hold long term. The area is seen in the charts - long term Fib fan + Fib retr (+ many other Fib instr. on diff. charts point to this area).
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  • #137,046
  • Sep 24, 2015 4:21am Sep 24, 2015 4:21am
Quoting Pharm0r
Not loading longs until below 1.1050
Grrr. Missed again so far. Loading longs, and *hopefully* losing them to sub 1.1050 reloads on a news driven f*ck you surprise in the future.
  • #137,047
  • Sep 24, 2015 6:22am Sep 24, 2015 6:22am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} And Dax and Cac on the way, visiting right now soft support resp. @ 9630 and 4430. That could be it for the day but I won't be surprised if we got extensions to 9530/50 and 4380/90. I'm expecting Euro equities to find their floor this week (maybe tomorrow with the help of chinese data), building an academic double bottom with august lows, while making a strong div with RSI. This week's lows could be a fantastic long term entry point on Euro equities, especially if Draghi tomorrow details what could be an ECB QE extension.
No details of an ECB QE extension yesterday (simply kept for later as a mattress/safety net IMO) and bad ECB Data today. August lows are nearly reached on the Dax @ 9389 (vs 9338), and Cac is a bit less attacked @ 4342 (vs 4230). My worst scenario is 9100/80 for the Dax and 4150/80 for the Cac, reached this Quarter or the 1st week of october. However, at these levels, imo selling euro equities is a very bad idea, Stock picking and Long term buying is the best strategy according to ECB policy (1Y QE left + probable extension).
  • #137,048
  • Sep 24, 2015 6:58am Sep 24, 2015 6:58am
Simple move in the Euro. Taking main intraday target on the test 1.127x...and that was pretty much it until tomorrow GDP numbers that will close the. Quarter...

Nothing to do here until then...same levels, same trades same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,049
  • Sep 24, 2015 7:31am Sep 24, 2015 7:31am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hi Sisse, what about DAX? Ive been thinking that if we get a dip today/tomorrow and previous low holds - it is an excelent opp to buy and hold long term. The area is seen in the charts - long term Fib fan + Fib retr (+ many other Fib instr. on diff. charts point to this area). {image} {image}
Hello Chester,

If I may, from a psycho/ta view :
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  • #137,050
  • Sep 24, 2015 7:35am Sep 24, 2015 7:35am
Quoting sisse
Simple move in the Euro. Taking main intraday target on the test 1.127x...and that was pretty much it until tomorrow GDP numbers that will close the. Quarter... Nothing to do here until then...same levels, same trades same all... sisse
Yellen will be talking oninflation today. Do you think the Mighty Jannet might move the markets?
  • #137,051
  • Sep 24, 2015 7:38am Sep 24, 2015 7:38am
Quoting Maks
{quote} Yellen will be talking oninflation today. Do you think the Mighty Jannet might move the markets?

Can't say anything in these circumstances.. too much manipulation happening right now...

I wish she put the end to the manipulation..
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #137,052
  • Sep 24, 2015 8:33am Sep 24, 2015 8:33am
Too much of manipulation going on with yellen on the other side ... Whether she says something in favour of rate hike or not ... Don't really care about that coz it has already bored the traders as Greece did a couple of months back and see what happened nothing got impacted not the Euro atleast ... Same thing is gonna happen with yellen rate hike ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,053
  • Sep 24, 2015 8:35am Sep 24, 2015 8:35am
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} Can't say anything in these circumstances.. too much manipulation happening right now... I wish she put the end to the manipulation..
She is not going to end this ... Coz this is how big players kill the retailers ..
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,054
  • Sep 24, 2015 8:41am Sep 24, 2015 8:41am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Trading at extremely interesting areas now. 1.1143 is my key level. If it gets broken with a decent ECB trigger or monthly close it opens up 1.097 and starts opening up the the potential lows on the pair via Euro weakness. But it's more probable for the bulls to hold the upper hand at these levels, and their intraday plays are more logical, taking back 1.1158->1.1188/1215 and opening up 1.1290.
Cleared first targets with all levels in play for very smooth moves. Sensible , conservative ECB keeping the Euro supported and bid off key levels (1.1143.) and soft numbers from the US today.

Nothing much to do on my side. Not really tracking anything else anymore except open plays on the pair and A/J. Let's see how Yellen goes later and the GDP tomorrow.
  • #137,055
  • Sep 24, 2015 11:20am Sep 24, 2015 11:20am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Cleared first targets with all levels in play for very smooth moves. Sensible , conservative ECB keeping the Euro supported and bid off key levels (1.1143.) and soft numbers from the US today. Nothing much to do on my side. Not really tracking anything else anymore except open plays on the pair and A/J. Let's see how Yellen goes later and the GDP tomorrow.
...first the writing style and now also the plays .... je je je ...well done ...

Quoting Maks
{quote} Yellen will be talking oninflation today. Do you think the Mighty Jannet might move the markets?
There is nothing see from the CB front for a few weeks. Those are just routine speeches and conferences ...is nothing to track in those academic conferences except a massive slip of mouth..but wont happen just a week after the last FOMC (it rarely happens).

In simple words, focus on the next round of numbers starting tomorrow before we come back to the FED...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,056
  • Sep 24, 2015 12:14pm Sep 24, 2015 12:14pm
Quoting sisse
...first the writing style and now also the plays .... je je je ...well done ... sisse
is ClinicalEx your son? Congratulations! .......I think I saw the near-term bottom for US equities today around SPY $190.50.....perhaps we have level jumped down to a new, boring range in the $190's.....until the next most important day of our lives comes around again - the Oct FOMC.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,057
  • Sep 24, 2015 2:19pm Sep 24, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} is ClinicalEx your son? Congratulations! .......I think I saw the near-term bottom for US equities today around SPY $190.50.....perhaps we have level jumped down to a new, boring range in the $190's.....until the next most important day of our lives comes around again - the Oct FOMC.....
Haha. I admit, I've learnt quite a bit and polished my style of trading this year. (just passive observations no AHA moments in my case.)

It's been absolutely priceless being able to follow live markets (and share.) on this thread.

This sell-off has stopped out my remaining orders as I brought up the S/L. Wasn't really expecting such volatility but...

same levels, (maybe different.) trades, same all.
  • #137,058
  • Sep 24, 2015 2:24pm Sep 24, 2015 2:24pm
Yellen wants to ruin Fool's Christmas
  • #137,059
  • Sep 24, 2015 2:56pm Sep 24, 2015 2:56pm
[quote=sisse;8507421]{.... There is nothing see from the CB front for a few weeks. Those are just routine speeches and conferences [wrong]...is nothing to track in those academic conferences except a massive slip of mouth [check] [was a bit more detailed than slip]..but wont happen just a week after the last FOMC (it rarely h

One wonders why on earth the FED even bother with 2 day meetings, minutes, congress appearances, data embargo and etc when 99% of the latest FED announcement has come from "unofficial channels" ...

--> A lot have been said about the transparency and the way the FED conducts its announcements. I have been a bit neutral about it but the last 3 months the FED gossips, slips, early leaks and non sense etc has become out of control. FED not only is losing its ability in delivering policy but it's losing very fast its credibility as the most important CB in the world.

In any case enough with the ranting. More details in Yellen comments than in the last 2 FOMC. Two points to highlight:

 

  1. Odds for hikes in Dec will make a huge jump after this (now were @ +/-55% chances) but Yellen pretty much guaranteed hikes DEC with these comments. Very hawkish for dollar short and mid term.
  2. However in the other hand its the first time we have a clear path on the hikes speed. They are going to be VERY VERY GRADUAL. These comments are BEARISH dollar for the long term.

---> These comments will bring a loooong tale. I will hold my outlooks until GDP numbers but we are flirting for a key change short/mid term outlooks from Neutral to Sell with the Q/M combo. However and more importantly we pretty much have CAPED the top in dollar long term with the very gradual hikes.

The Q roll will also lock the long term floor in the Euro for the next few quarters (we wont go much further than parity [0.97xx max extension] ...basically FED will LOCK the MACRO FA support @ 0.88xx...)...

Comments came with markets closed making the GDP/ Q/M/W triple combo a key one to track and trade ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,060
  • Sep 24, 2015 3:23pm Sep 24, 2015 3:23pm
sisse, you have been "punked" - now anyway equity markets can rally on a return to "certainty" - like the certainty of the Titanic's iceberg, so comforting....really though, sounds like a recipe for choppy pa, as the first rate hike will be followed by the "uncertainty" of when, exactly, the next one will be...waiting to see how futures respond overnight...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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