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Let's Trade Options

  • #10,781
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:06pm Sep 22, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting darimik
might be a silly question, but what are some good ways to get some oil exposure through options? not from the futures/future options..
USO's the general go-to as a proxy for WTI. There are other instruments like XOP, XLE, and OIH that are broader-based oil exploration, energy, etc. sector ETF's that also might be suitable as an alternative to trading USO (which is nearly as frustrating to trade as WTI).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,782
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:26pm Sep 22, 2015 1:26pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
. Nick put on a Nov 20th SPY 163/178/201/217 IC for a 3.74 credit. You read that right: basically 15 strikes wide
zero points for margin efficiency
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,783
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:29pm Sep 22, 2015 1:29pm
Quoting darimik
might be a silly question, but what are some good ways to get some oil exposure through options? not from the futures/future options..
besides what ZS mentions above, you can pick your poison amongst the individual oil patch names. The less vertically integrated they are, the more likely they will show tight correlated moves to the oil price moves.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,784
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:47pm Sep 22, 2015 1:47pm
for a weekly I did SPY vert calls, $196.5/$197, for 10c. I also did a SPY calls diag, Oct/Oct4, $206/$207 for a 5c debit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,785
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:53pm Sep 22, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting The Fool
for a weekly I did SPY vert calls, $196.5/$197, for 10c. I also did a SPY calls diag, Oct/Oct4, $206/$207 for a 5c debit

I will match the calls diag with puts down under $185 if SPY will pull back. Puts are skewed higher, need them to blow off some iv to get in a $1 time spread as cheap as the calls....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,786
  • Sep 22, 2015 2:08pm Sep 22, 2015 2:08pm
I have gotten to where all I really need to look at (when I am very busy like these days) is SPY and VXX. Boring? Yes. (Boring is good.) (....if it pays....)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,787
  • Sep 22, 2015 2:23pm Sep 22, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting The Fool
I have gotten to where all I really need to look at (when I am very busy like these days) is SPY and VXX. Boring? Yes. (Boring is good.) (....if it pays....)
Yeah, man.... boring is good. It is very hard to be a good stock-picker on this market, IMO... but there are good instruments, like the one you mentioned. I didn't trade Crude for a while... that too can be very nice. Always lots of premium there (in /CL options). Basically you can do very well on indices and VIX products, once you learn how they behave.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,788
  • Sep 22, 2015 3:23pm Sep 22, 2015 3:23pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah, man.... boring is good. It is very hard to be a good stock-picker on this market, IMO... but there are good instruments, like the one you mentioned. I didn't trade Crude for a while... that too can be very nice. Always lots of premium there (in /CL options). Basically you can do very well on indices and VIX products, once you learn how they behave.
Boring is exactly what I need ... . This quarter, the vast majority of my $ was made in IWM, followed by SPY, QQQ, DIA, and TLT/TBT. I probs coulda stuck to just the SPY, quite frankly, but sometimes those strikes aren't where you want them to be in one index ETF, but they're there in the other ... .

Have no clue what to make out of today's price action beyond this: that .50 Fib from the 4/14 low to the 2015 high (197) appears to be an area of interest, along with the .382 (around 194), which price kind of responded to into the close ... . Longer-term (4H) (and I'm playing slop here), a range between 1920 and 2000 appears to be taking shape. Given the way this market's been, though, I'm steering far wider of the 192 and 200 strikes in SPY (still thinking north of 204, south of 185) for options setups ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,789
  • Sep 22, 2015 3:32pm Sep 22, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Boring is exactly what I need ... . This quarter, the vast majority of my $ was made in IWM, followed by SPY, QQQ, DIA, and TLT/TBT. I probs coulda stuck to just the SPY, quite frankly, but sometimes those strikes aren't where you want them to be in one index ETF, but they're there in the other ... . Have no clue what to make out of today's price action beyond this: that .50 Fib from the 4/14 low to the 2015 high (197) appears to be an area of interest, along with the .382 (around 194), which price kind of responded to into the close ......
Between 194 and 197's an awfully narrow range, so I don't imagine it'll stick between those for long ... . Been nearly a month since the break of 204, and I still think it's a freakin' chop fest ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,790
  • Sep 22, 2015 3:34pm Sep 22, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I will match the calls diag with puts down under $185 if SPY will pull back. Puts are skewed higher, need them to blow off some iv to get in a $1 time spread as cheap as the calls....
Mind reader (as to both the calls and the puts).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,791
  • Sep 22, 2015 3:42pm Sep 22, 2015 3:42pm
Quoting The Fool
for a weekly I did SPY vert calls, $196.5/$197, for 10c.
missed filling that weekly calls vert by 1c, too bad all that's needed there is for SPY to retrace today's move

will look at a vix dump possibility for end-week, VXX puts, no rush....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,792
  • Sep 22, 2015 6:07pm Sep 22, 2015 6:07pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
a range between 1920 and 2000 appears to be taking shape. Given the way this market's been, though, I'm steering far wider of the 192 and 200 strikes in SPY (still thinking north of 204, south of 185) for options setups ... .
choppy, volatile ranges punctuated by "level jumping" bigass 1-2 day moves, like a couple 80 pt candles in a row, or better. I am afraid to position in this pa with condors, because those big jumps are murder, if they come. Otoh, the iv never has a chance to blow off with all the chop, so if you want to try to put on some verticals to try to waylay one of those pops, you have to be willing to pay a little more for it

...obviously, though, it's better to have some movement if the fish are jumping hey maybe some will just land in your boat
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,793
  • Edited 8:40am Sep 23, 2015 8:00am | Edited 8:40am
Lets be prepared for a very possible scenario -> testing the Aug lows.

SPX INDEX daily chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-D-projection.PNG Size: 204 KB


False breakout (on FOMC) from ascending triangle, followed by breakdown.
For this scenario, if we see a double bottom, I have following simple ideas -> sell put spreads, and sell volatility. The later I will probably do a combination of buying XIV and put spreads on VXX. Even if we see just a bounce, and after that a lower low, this could be very nice on high vol.

Addon
Mind that the chart above is cash index. Aug /ES low around 1830, and Oct 2014 low @ 1820. Those are the targets, and anywhere close.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,794
  • Sep 23, 2015 10:40am Sep 23, 2015 10:40am
Some thoughts... scalping...

This PA today - gap down and filling the entire gap in premarket... hmm... I have closed my short scalping trades... just in case, since this looks like a temporary stop. I even managed to enter some in premarket, while playing with my child... Then I heard alarm from platform, I am approaching it to review situation and close -> and BUUUM!! No internet for 20 minutes. When I was online again, price was at entry point... Pfff.... So some frustration as always... Banked at the end, but hours later.

Attached Image


It can still drop like an axe later today. Anyways, 4x the daily plan, OR let me think now -> I will increase my daily plan, so today then 3x my new daily plan... better than a sharp stick in the eye. Too tired and too nervous, but still made good money... Thinking of just turning off the platform and rest.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,795
  • Sep 23, 2015 10:56am Sep 23, 2015 10:56am
Quoting StrayDog
... It can still drop like an axe later today....
Yeah...

Attached Image
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,796
  • Sep 23, 2015 1:03pm Sep 23, 2015 1:03pm
filled a weekly, SPY $195.5/$196.0 bull calls, 15 centavos. I still think the US equities will do what they do, grind higher because TINA.

Looking at cheap VXX put verts, you have to know the VIX will do what it do too until it don't, which will be a cold day in Hell
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,797
  • Sep 23, 2015 1:09pm Sep 23, 2015 1:09pm
Quoting StrayDog
and BUUUM!! No internet for 20 minutes.
izzat pretty common there in Belgrade? The internet nearly never goes down where I live, but power does, several times a year for 12-36 hrs, so I have backup power that can run the router for hours, but since I'm not scalping, I am rarely in a do-or-die type situation. Every year or so we get big ice/snow storms and the lines come down and I have no DSL at home for several days, but I can go to a hotspot somewhere nearby to manage trades...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,798
  • Sep 23, 2015 1:40pm Sep 23, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting StrayDog
and BUUUM!! No internet for 20 minutes.
Having a cellular broadband connection as a backup is worth every penny if you're an active trader.
Moreover, it's more secure than public WLANs when you're on the move with your laptop.
Twitter: ThirdMoment
  • #10,799
  • Sep 23, 2015 2:00pm Sep 23, 2015 2:00pm
Quoting rbfx
{quote} Having a cellular broadband connection as a backup is worth every penny.
you get good cell service all over Norweg? Lots of places I have to travel in the mountainous PacNW are pretty remote & cell signals can be hard to find, so I just save that expense and take my chances at Starbucks, which is everywhere here....if I were a daytrader I'd probably want to have the cell phone w/ trading app on the phone, etc...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,800
  • Sep 23, 2015 2:34pm Sep 23, 2015 2:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} you get good cell service all over Norweg? Lots of places I have to travel in the mountainous PacNW are pretty remote & cell signals can be hard to find, so I just save that expense and take my chances at Starbucks, which is everywhere here....if I were a daytrader I'd probably want to have the cell phone w/ trading app on the phone, etc...
Yupp. Good 3G/4G coverage unless I'm in very sparsely populated areas.
I guess US operators are a bit behind on that front.
Twitter: ThirdMoment
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