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  • #10,761
  • Sep 21, 2015 5:09pm Sep 21, 2015 5:09pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} $24.68 to $22.40 AH, I got a good feelin bout this one, esse.....this is what the VIX is good for, looking for 0.....
Part of me's rooting for ya; part of me wants more vol ... . Enough vol has bled out of the index ETF's such that I'm probs gonna pass on the weekly mechanical index ETF IC I usually set up on Tuesdays. Nothing ruins your day more than selling an IC or a credit spread in a low vol environment only to have vol pop prior to expiration ... . Hand sat for various periods of sub-35 index ETF vol before the break of 204; hand sitting for a few days ain't gonna hurt ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,762
  • Sep 21, 2015 5:13pm Sep 21, 2015 5:13pm
And just like that, I'm out of three out of four of my FXE short call verts, leaving the December 112/115 remaining. The only way I'll add new positions in that is if we see one of these "risk off" pops that breaks 112 again. I'd rather trade GLD, which ain't sayin' much ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,763
  • Sep 21, 2015 5:18pm Sep 21, 2015 5:18pm
how you doin wit TLT? I put on a call calendar last week.....total dog - I should give up on trying to call the rate moves
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,764
  • Edited 1:52am Sep 22, 2015 1:08am | Edited 1:52am
China says they will be shooting for 150 GW installed solar electric capacity by 2050 2020. Link to map shows total of all (all types, not just solar) electric generating capacity by country, ca 2008 data. Note USA @ 1 TW, w/ all of Canada 125 GW, all of India 160 GW, etc. The note on YGE kind of interesting since it is just a 50c stock, having dropped $3 in the last year....
http://www.steamtablesonline.com/ele...x#.VgDvsZrH_X4

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/...-trina-to-buy/

"Second, valuation has come way down. The large solar stocks are on average trading at 6.7 times forward earnings, well below the historical average of 12 times and one standard deviation below the mid-cycle of 9.5 times. In addition, most solar companies still generate reasonable cash returns, with 2015 cash return on invested capital averaging 15.2%. “The current valuation has largely priced in the headwinds,” wrote Goldman.

We may also have a nice policy catalyst. The National Energy Agency is reviewing the 13th five-year plan right now and is likely to revise up the government’s planned installed capacity to 150GW from 100GW by 2020."

"Yingli Green Energy (YGE) soared 15.6% after signing its largest ever solar panel supply agreement in China."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,765
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:24am Sep 22, 2015 1:24am
on a $0.50 stock, you should be able to fill a long-dated 50c vertical for $0.00 - just comms (yeah, that's gonna happen)....lol...at that price, a 200-lot trade would cost you $310 and maxp would be $10k if YGE trades above $1.10 by Jan 2017....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,766
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:34am Sep 22, 2015 1:34am
YGE was @ $8 just 24 months ago. What happened? Something more than just the oil crash? Do some dd.....anyway, back when I only knew how to trade stocks, I caught a few good trades on it back in them tall candles around 2008
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,767
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:39am Sep 22, 2015 1:39am
Quoting The Fool
how you doin wit TLT? I put on a call calendar last week.....total dog - I should give up on trying to call the rate moves
Not bad. It tends to break one way or the other quite hard, though ... . IC or short strangle nondirectionally is the way I've been playing it, since I've ceased trying to figure it out ... . Seems to presage the inverse SPY move ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,768
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:52am Sep 22, 2015 1:52am
Up way too late, scrabbling around for some kind of premium selling play ... . Nothing really pokes me in the eye at the moment.

Considering moving to SPX and RUT ... . There appears to be greater flexibility with strike prices that doesn't exist with the ETF's. For example, the SPY Oct 23rd expiry, strikes are still 5 wide 180 and below ... . Moreover, certain weeklies become more quickly available in RUT and SPX; you gotta wait for those with IWM and SPY ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,769
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:58am Sep 22, 2015 1:58am
Quoting The Fool
China says they will be shooting for 150 GW installed solar electric capacity by 2050 2020.
OK, the Chinese have seen the future and it is solar powered. They are saying their solar electric generating capacity will be about equal to the entire electric generating capacity of India? Five years from now? And India has big solar plans of their own, btw. The only kink in the thread is cheap oil, but that won't last.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,770
  • Sep 22, 2015 2:03am Sep 22, 2015 2:03am
pro's and con's - the oi in SPY is much better than SPX, and the SPY spreads are a little tighter
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,771
  • Sep 22, 2015 7:14am Sep 22, 2015 7:14am
What a falling knife... Dropping like an axe, and with heavy volume.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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DAX over 3% down.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,772
  • Sep 22, 2015 8:53am Sep 22, 2015 8:53am
I really hate days when market is down so much in premarket AND then finds no strength whatsoever for a pullback. Just soooo frustrating. C'mon give the old SD something to work on... Fibo 38.2 if I can't get anything better, eh... no? You... bah...
/NQ very weak, but that mofo can make a hell of a pullback, so better to sit tight.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,773
  • Sep 22, 2015 11:39am Sep 22, 2015 11:39am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Part of me's rooting for ya; part of me wants more vol ... ..
OBVIOUSLY not getting what I need for short VXX and long SPY weekly positions - but those were all trades left over from the combos I had set up for the FOMC. At this point sitting on dry powder and wondering wtf to do. If I see SPY continue to slide to or below $190 this week, I will be looking to sell put spreads only out to Oct and with short leg under $182....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,774
  • Edited 12:39pm Sep 22, 2015 12:11pm | Edited 12:39pm
That IVR on Dough can be a slightly misleading little bugger ... . SPY's IVR is currently at 35 (52-week TOS), but my thinking is that the 204-break and ensuing volatility (SPY's IVR was at 100 at one point) has skewed the IVR, so that 35 is really better than it looks ... . Should really just use the TOS IV indicator to see where IV's at, where it's been ... .

So I went ahead and took a mechanical SPY IC trade, Nov 20th expiry, 172/175/204/207 for a 1.00 credit. Couldn't do shit with expiries closer in with the short put strike at the 1 SD and the short call at the edge of the expected move ... . Ridiculous, SPY Oct 23rd still at 5 wides around the 1 SD on the put side -- f'in unworkable ... .

<50% in cash, which is not the general state I want to be in, but nothing is popping out at me ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,775
  • Sep 22, 2015 12:13pm Sep 22, 2015 12:13pm
Quoting The Fool
pro's and con's - the oi in SPY is much better than SPX, and the SPY spreads are a little tighter
You're right about that. I look at those every so often because I see traders on Dough doing SPX (I've never seen a RUT trade). I almost always pass ... . Better to scale up with a SPY or IWM position than to go in whole hog with one of those beasts ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,776
  • Sep 22, 2015 12:16pm Sep 22, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting StrayDog
What a falling knife... Dropping like an axe, and with heavy volume. {image} DAX over 3% down.
I almost bought one of those TDI "Clean" Diesels, primarily on the "clean" hype -- plus we use blended soy diesel in these parts, adding to the "green" factor ... . Aufwiedersehen, Volkswagen ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,777
  • Sep 22, 2015 12:23pm Sep 22, 2015 12:23pm
Quoting StrayDog
I really hate days when market is down so much in premarket AND then finds no strength whatsoever for a pullback. Just soooo frustrating. C'mon give the old SD something to work on... Fibo 38.2 if I can't get anything better, eh... no? You... bah... /NQ very weak, but that mofo can make a hell of a pullback, so better to sit tight.
This market's become a giant wood chipper ... . Shee ... yatttt.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,778
  • Sep 22, 2015 12:40pm Sep 22, 2015 12:40pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
That IVR on Dough can be a slightly misleading little bugger ... . SPY's IVR is currently at 35 (52-week TOS), but my thinking is that the 204-break and ensuing volatility (SPY's IVR was at 100 at one point) has skewed the IVR, so that 35 is really better than it looks ... . Should really just use the TOS IV indicator to see where IV's at, where it's been ... . So I went ahead and took a mechanical SPY IC trade, Nov 20th expiry, 172/175/204/207 for a 1.00 credit. Couldn't do shit with expiries closer in with the short put strike at the 1 SD and...
Fixed that <50% in cash problem with a TLT IC 38 days out ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,779
  • Sep 22, 2015 12:54pm Sep 22, 2015 12:54pm
I don't fully understand this Dough Trade (he says facetiously) ... . Nick put on a Nov 20th SPY 163/178/201/217 IC for a 3.74 credit. You read that right: basically 15 strikes wide on the put wing, 16 on the call.

Good luck managing that ginormous cluster when one of those sides is tested ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,780
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:01pm Sep 22, 2015 1:01pm
might be a silly question, but what are some good ways to get some oil exposure through options? not from the futures/future options..
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