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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,021
  • Sep 18, 2015 11:59pm Sep 18, 2015 11:59pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ..well i think markets already answered your question S&P (2020.xx -> 1950.xx).
Thank you sisse indeed i realised later on that i was asking the question a bit too early, Shouldve wait for the move to end.
  • #137,022
  • Sep 20, 2015 5:19pm Sep 20, 2015 5:19pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}{quote} I strongly disagree with that. I never have been a fan of a machine gun approach in trading and I even dare to say that the moment a trader understand that not being in a position is an actual position is the moment a trader will graduate as a successful trade... of course there are exceptions but exceptions that only confirm the rule.... {quote} Let me give you my 2 cents. I think you are making a mistake in the way you perceive / use fundamentals for trading. If you are trying to use Fundamentals as the Holy Grail that will give...
Maybe i was not clear, i was not saying being neutral is wrong, just wanted to say highest tf signals of a usable system can also give hint about the "path of less resistance"..and it looks easier to me as following fundamentals tight (being up to date & digest/understanding coherences).i fully accept your reasoning: de gustibus non est disputandum.Have a great week mates!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,023
  • Sep 20, 2015 5:27pm Sep 20, 2015 5:27pm
Quoting hathor
{quote} Let me think about it... Something else: In my humble/childish opinion: 'What you see in the chart in a specific moment is actually the future.' So heading up before September means there will be no hike. When this information gets out from the inner circle and everybody will be buying, the price will fall back to retest breakout points. If there will be a hike in September, than price should fall in August...
So far the first option (heading up before Sept) is in play, imo we are right now in the "falling back to retest bo points" phase. The plan according to this is:
Quoting hathor
Weekly* & Monthly* signals are still unchanged, while on Daily & H4 & H1 there are mild sell signals. So the overall situation is the same for me: The lower I can buy, the happier I will be. *: {quote}
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,024
  • Sep 21, 2015 7:29am Sep 21, 2015 7:29am
Bought 1.124xx area. in case of bounce, sl will trailing the move
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,025
  • Sep 21, 2015 10:05am Sep 21, 2015 10:05am
Quoting hathor
Bought 1.124xx area. in case of bounce, sl will trailing the move
me too !!!
isnt it gonna bounce up or sth, even a dead cat bounce!!!!
  • #137,026
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:27pm Sep 21, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Shy of my level on the pair unfortunately but I honestly wasn't planning to fade the touch anyway (thank goodness.) Going to let this week settle down; it's looking like a neutral close at around 1.1375. As suspected on equities, those holding at 1960 weren't going to fold without a fight with a dovish FED. Weak action from equities either way so looking out for some good hard data (not FED gobbledygook.) to make the moves.
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} {quote} That did it, and 10150 played out on DAX but we're starting to lose the floor there. Anyway, as long as 9800 holds we're well supported there. (saved from a further sell-off I mean, not related to trading yet.) We're still off the major levels to track for long term swing shorts on the pair. So beginning to align for proper technical plays for a hawkish FED anyway. A hike with very careful forward guidance or a display of the very robust discourse in the FED with tons of diverging consensus we've become used...
Quoting ClinicalEx
so just waiting until some of the key levels come into play: looking out for a 9800 test on DAX to sell the highsbefore Friday.
Major Equities playing out simultaneously at support with the FED holding fire so holding the the initial tests as expected. Straightforward play for continued momentum for the bears on the pair via the very smooth Euro equities move but unfortunately I clean missed the meat if the move from the highs trying to play off exact levels around 1.1466, and not anticipating a direct sell-off and that move late on Friday was just...

A quick breach of the old 1.1215 so that's the flip-zone between 1.1158 and 1.1290.
  • #137,027
  • Edited 5:38pm Sep 21, 2015 5:28pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
...t... A quick breach of the old 1.1215 so that's the flip-zone between 1.1158 and 1.1290.
Very bullish closes in Gold, Euro and OIL. US equities also ready to form a hard bottom mid term. The Q roll will set the low of the year in equities.

As expected so far dovish FED is getting digested. The Q/M roll will unfold the legs. In the case of the Euro, trailing remaining longs aggressively as we enter in key reloading levels (+/- same as yours 1.117x). Bears, failing to hold 1.129x for the European numbers this week and especially ECB QE number updates will unlock the no hikes highs extension...

Here, aggressively looking for entries in Equities, reentries in oil and toping up longs in Euro and Gold.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,028
  • Sep 21, 2015 7:27pm Sep 21, 2015 7:27pm
Not loading longs until below 1.1050
  • #137,029
  • Sep 22, 2015 12:27am Sep 22, 2015 12:27am
Quoting sisse
US equities also ready to form a hard bottom mid term. The Q roll will set the low of the year in equities. As expected so far dovish FED is getting digested. The Q/M roll will unfold the legs.......aggressively looking for entries in Equities, reentries in oil and toping up longs in Euro and Gold.
spoos 1,830 it is then. Q3 earnings season about to kick off & the bear case is fading from view. FOMC whiff means no chance for rate hike until 2016, no way JY is gonna raise rate on the eve of the biggest orgy of capitalism, Santa Claus's birthday, Xmas. (How many years in a row have I been saying that now?) People on the Internet (they're always right) say the market is gonna crash, but I ain't feelin it - I will not be surprised to see the Summer highs touched again in the next 4-6 weeks. Then surpassed in the Santa rally. The S&P started 2015 at ~2,050 and it would be un-American for it not to deliver some kind of return, let us say ~5% - to 2,150? For the love of Santa, think of Tiny Tim, and give us 2,150 or maybe even 2,200?

And then the Federal Grinch can raise the rate in January or later, whatever, fuck by the time they get around to it, they'll be so far behind the curve it'll just be a non-event.

Your hopes for oil I believe will pan out in the new year with WTI grinding up towards $60, but I think it'll be a slow grind unless there be a catalyst, such as you-know-who doing you-know-what. They will or they won't. If I had to bet my life on it, I would go with the yeas, probably at the 12/4 meeting. Boy that would make Santa happy.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,030
  • Edited 3:02am Sep 22, 2015 2:33am | Edited 3:02am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Very bullish closes in Gold, Euro and OIL. US equities also ready to form a hard bottom mid term. The Q roll will set the low of the year in equities. As expected so far dovish FED is getting digested. The Q/M roll will unfold the legs. In the case of the Euro, trailing remaining longs aggressively as we enter in key reloading levels (+/- same as yours 1.117x). Bears, failing to hold 1.129x for the European numbers this week and especially ECB QE number updates will unlock the no hikes highs extension... Here, aggressively looking for entries...
Particularly interested in DAX over here with the guys surely looking for any excuse to follow through with the right numbers. Anemic PPI helped the cause yesterday in a roundabout way but they've been soft overall, notably with the last ZEW sucker punch. Only tracking 10094 (especially.) and 9800 for the quarterly close.

In the Euro- still negatively correlated with equities but, I understand, you can't overlook August especially at these levels on the pair. Unfortunately, I may have missed the boat in expressing my longer term bearish view because a return to the highs (1.14xx.) will seriously diminish the odds.

I'm also (passively.) tracking commodities. I think gold has a clearer/more grounded picture for the quarterly close (obviously oil has flown to somewhere crazy.) It's trading between 1182 and 1097 with a quarterly close in between not much use, but closer to 1182 telling a far more compelling story.

GL in whatever you take.
  • #137,031
  • Sep 22, 2015 5:41am Sep 22, 2015 5:41am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Unbelievable FED, unbelievable pussy members, paralyzed and unable to take a bold decision. Makes me think to what Churchill said one day.. They tried to avoid a crash on equities but now they will get one. Euro equities may visit august lows IMO.
And Dax and Cac on the way, visiting right now soft support resp. @ 9630 and 4430.
That could be it for the day but I won't be surprised if we got extensions to 9530/50 and 4380/90.

I'm expecting Euro equities to find their floor this week (maybe tomorrow with the help of chinese data), building an academic double bottom with august lows, while making a strong div with RSI. This week's lows could be a fantastic long term entry point on Euro equities, especially if Draghi tomorrow details what could be an ECB QE extension.
  • #137,032
  • Sep 22, 2015 8:14am Sep 22, 2015 8:14am
Flight to quality particularly in Europe as stocks sell-off. Tracking the 10 year bund at 60 basis points to stop the bleeding. I got cleaned out from those nice entries and missed the chance for the buffer before the big news/ECB tomorow.

Easier going on the pair:1.1158-> then not quite 1.1215 for the intraday range as suspected.

US Markets also lost the floor so a grim outlook out there ATM.
  • #137,033
  • Sep 22, 2015 8:23am Sep 22, 2015 8:23am
Quoting ClinicalEx
.... I think gold has a clearer/more grounded picture for the quarterly close (obviously oil has flown to somewhere crazy.) ....
I very much agree with you on GOLD. For the rest as expected since the close yesterday "choose your poison time" for NY opening. Closely tracking the opening range in equities for a chance to load until the close if we hold. Euro 1.117x also in play for topping up ...

Quoting sisse

S&P

$1740.xx (Steel Support) | $1820.xx (very strong) | $1940.xx (momentum)[still in play] | $1985.xx [check] ...|Actual|... $2021.xx(soft) [check]| $2070.xx [in play]


For those following S&P 1940.xx [check] tested...eyes on the mid term swing 2070.xx with trigger EZ QE and US GDP this week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,034
  • Sep 22, 2015 3:48pm Sep 22, 2015 3:48pm
US Equities barely held 1940.xx but held at the end triggering early alerts for the mid term swing to 2070.xx....that was the one to track today as it will carry the board in the next leg.

On the rest, Gold and Oil still holding the last breaks and Euro still trading down in a small measured move rolling a bit less bullish than yesterday but still in buying mode with a very tiny buffer now to 1.108x.

1.117x as only level in play for the swing ...until then nothing to see, same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,035
  • Sep 22, 2015 3:50pm Sep 22, 2015 3:50pm
Quoting sisse
For those following S&P 1940.xx [check] tested...eyes on the mid term swing 2070.xx with trigger EZ QE and US GDP this week... sisse
I still think US equities will do what they do, btfd & grind north....could be a slow grind, though. Anything could happen, though - bastards could retest the late Aug lows and get the rally on from there. I still think the bear case for US equities is weak....but I have been setting up Oct spreads for that dip, just in case...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,036
  • Sep 22, 2015 3:55pm Sep 22, 2015 3:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I still think US equities will do what they do, btfd & grind north....could be a slow grind, though. Anything could happen, though - bastards could retest the late Aug lows and get the rally on from there. I still think the bear case for US equities is weak....but I have been setting up Oct spreads for that dip, just in case...
Yes agree. I expect a very slow and bumpy ride too...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,037
  • Sep 22, 2015 5:37pm Sep 22, 2015 5:37pm
Quoting The Fool
I still think US equities will do what they do, btfd & grind north......
green number for China PMI today, then an upturn for wti - tomorrow off short build number, could be a turn signal. Wild card in coming weeks will be the possibility of a US govt shutdown.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,038
  • Sep 22, 2015 6:24pm Sep 22, 2015 6:24pm
Looking to load longs today for the fabled 1.2000
  • #137,039
  • Sep 22, 2015 9:38pm Sep 22, 2015 9:38pm
Gold looking very juicy at these levels (1123). Reloading with stops just below 1115. Looking for a HH (1170+), perhaps a crack at 1200+
  • #137,040
  • Sep 23, 2015 2:34am Sep 23, 2015 2:34am
Trading at extremely interesting areas now. 1.1143 is my key level. If it gets broken with a decent ECB trigger or monthly close it opens up 1.097 and starts opening up the the potential lows on the pair via Euro weakness.

But it's more probable for the bulls to hold the upper hand at these levels, and their intraday plays are more logical, taking back 1.1158->1.1188/1215 and opening up 1.1290.
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