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Fail Better

  • #6,041
  • Sep 15, 2015 5:51am Sep 15, 2015 5:51am
I just noticed I had unsubscribed to my own thread! Suffice to say, it was unintentional.

Still, I have been absent from this thread for a long while now.

There are a few reasons for this. The main one is that once the strategy is largely taught, threads often become page after page of: "I did this" or "What do you think of this?" and reading through them all and in particular, answering them, can become very time consuming.

That is why I prefer the webinar format because it is much easier to answer questions and show what I am looking at/discuss what I have done in detail via audio/visual than text/images. So if you would like to join me on these, I hold them each week at 8PM UK Time (sign up can be found here- http://www.trader-dante.com/webinars.html)

Nevertheless, I am too nostalgic to see this thread die and so, after a little hiatus, let's get this moving again
  • #6,042
  • Edited 11:23am Sep 15, 2015 10:33am | Edited 11:23am
To refresh memories or to serve as an introduction to others, I thought I would post a setup from today.

This is EUR/GBP - not a pair that I trade often or that I particularly like but this one allowed for a serious precision entry on the long side.

Firstly, take a look at the daily chart which quite clearly shows a bull flag formation.

Last week, the market found significant support (circled) at the former swing low (marked with the green arrow).

This is just above former resistance (the red horizontal line) and the 38% fib retracement level. Technically this is a key area on the chart.

On Sunday night, ahead of the open, I was looking for an opportunity to join the momentum away from this area and get long in anticipation of a flag break.
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  • #6,043
  • Edited 11:23am Sep 15, 2015 10:43am | Edited 11:23am
Coming down onto the 60m chart, we will see the former resistance level marked with the green horizontal line at 0.7326.

This is the area that you wanted to be watching closely at the beginning of the week but the most precise entries are usually to be found by isolating the last resistance that the market made before it broke out.

You will see an example of what I mean by this marked on the chart with the down arrow.

Note how when we then re-draw a fib from the daily base (mentioned in the post above) to the recent high, that high coincides with the 38% fib to give us excellent technical confluence.

This is where you would want to be long.

Many traders will look at this and see it as a low probability play because it comes within the middle of a range. However, once you get adept at reading price action, you will come to find that it is possible to make a high probability guess which way price is going to break from a range. And counter intuitively, often times you are safer entering there as opposed to the point where everyone has noticed a breakout.
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  • #6,044
  • Sep 15, 2015 10:47am Sep 15, 2015 10:47am
Going back to the first post I made today - the reason I prefer communicating via webinars is because it is usually easier.

To give you an example, here is the trade above, covered in 2 minutes and spoken about before it set up: http://www.screencast.com/t/Wb87SQoLvdDy
  • #6,045
  • Sep 15, 2015 11:32am Sep 15, 2015 11:32am
Now what I was ideally looking for was a quick drop into this area on Monday.

In actual fact what you can see happened is that we based on Monday at the upper level (marked with the green arrows) but just couldn't find much strength there and it was only today that we probed lower.

This poses somewhat of a problem because it means that IF we come in as a buyer at the optimal area (discussed above) this support (marked with the blue box) could pose a problem on the way up.

In situations like this I still take the trade (if the reward:risk merits it) but usually I use that next level as a target making it a very short term play.

If, as I do here, you have a bigger directional bias you can attempt to run these trades but it is always important to be aware of these areas.
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  • #6,046
  • Sep 15, 2015 12:18pm Sep 15, 2015 12:18pm
Hi Tom!
Great to see you again here after so much time! :-)
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #6,047
  • Sep 15, 2015 1:15pm Sep 15, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting Chris_B
Hi Tom! Great to see you again here after so much time! :-)
Thank you! Glad to be back. Mind you, with it being so long since the last post, I wonder if we can get this going again?!
  • #6,048
  • Sep 16, 2015 2:22am Sep 16, 2015 2:22am
A quick update on the EUR/GBP that I posted yesterday.

Note the importance of your entry when it comes to lack of follow through in the anticipated direction.

If you entered at A (as discussed above) you have the option to take profit at the next level (B) for a short term play.

Alternatively you might try and catch the bigger move and run a trailing stop (one such place is behind the last swing low at point C) which would also result in a profit when the upside move fails to materialise.

Now take a look at the circled area which is where many amateurs get caught as the flag "triggers". Up there you are offside from the word go and have very limited options.

When you get very adept at trade entry you can get to the stage where you can still take a decent profit being completely wrong on the direction (as I am here!).
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  • #6,049
  • Sep 16, 2015 10:20am Sep 16, 2015 10:20am
any one get the feeling the dollar is going to shit itself tomorrow? To me it looks like it is drawing in longs before it pisses in their face after the FOMC
  • #6,050
  • Sep 17, 2015 10:41am Sep 17, 2015 10:41am
Jesus, it feels like its Xmas eve. Really excited. No way I am trading this, but looking forward to the action​
  • #6,051
  • Sep 18, 2015 5:15am Sep 18, 2015 5:15am
Anyone else in on this USD/CHF trade? Serious support. Panning out ok, however I am just after taking a loser shorting the Aussie. Stopped out above yesterdays highs.
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  • #6,052
  • Sep 18, 2015 5:27am Sep 18, 2015 5:27am
If USD/JPY moves through the 118.5 region and retests it from below I am hoping I have the balls to put on a serious short position
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  • #6,053
  • Sep 18, 2015 7:24am Sep 18, 2015 7:24am
Closed off half my USD/CHF trade at 9570. Possible I might get filled on the other half before the end of the day. That closed half position almost made up for the Aussie loser. In line for a potential 1% day. And yet I am not happy. Look at my Aussie trade. I picked the low and the high. In fact I got filled at the absolute low of the move. The bid didn't even reach my entry price! Hit my stop and then rolled over. I feel like breaking something.
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  • #6,054
  • Sep 19, 2015 9:57am Sep 19, 2015 9:57am
Quoting MarkJoyce
... And yet I am not happy. Look at my Aussie trade. I picked the low and the high. In fact I got filled at the absolute low of the move. The bid didn't even reach my entry price! Hit my stop and then rolled over. I feel like breaking something. {image}
Hi Mark,

What, exactly, did you do in the AUD/USD?
  • #6,055
  • Sep 19, 2015 10:08am Sep 19, 2015 10:08am
It was a bad trade regardless of the outcome. I wanted to sell it the day before at 7250, but there was no way I had the nerve to pull the trigger after the FOMC. When it came back up there and seemed to stall I sold it at 44 and put my stop above the previous days high. I was a trade born from frustration at missing the previous move that I correctly anticipated.

I sold it at that level because my system for entrys on short timeframes is based on moving averages. But I should have left it be. ​

By the way I just bought series 1 of your special webinars. I'm learning a lot from you. I wish I had stumbled upon your stuff 10 years ago. I thought these forums were only full of horseshit. My own fault I suppose for not giving them a chance
  • #6,056
  • Sep 19, 2015 11:08am Sep 19, 2015 11:08am
By the way, I am new to the concept of Pinbars. Does the action on the AUD/USD on Friday count as one? Looks like one to me.
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  • #6,057
  • Sep 20, 2015 4:20am Sep 20, 2015 4:20am
Evening Gents,

Some set-ups from my Sunday analysis below, any comments or criticism welcome.



(1) EUR/GBP - Buy @ 0.7224 (4 Hour Chart)

Comment: Buy dip from bullish flag into resistance. Daily chart showing long bias. SL: 0.72 TP: 0.7266 and 0.7402

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(2) USD/JPY - Sell @ 120.4 (1 Hour Chart)

Comment: Sell bounce from previous support. Daily chart showing short bias. SL: 120.5 TP: 120.11

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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(3) GBP/USD - Buy @ 1.5471 (1 Hour Chart)

Comment: Buy at previous resistance. SL: 1.5457 TP: 1.5521

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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(4) Silver - Buy @ 14.875 (1 Hour Chart)

Comment: Buy into previous resistance area, this level line up with 50% FIB. SL: 14.801 TP: 15.051

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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(5) USD/CAD - Buy @ 1.2799 (Daily Chart)

Comment: This is a long term positional play. Buy at previous resistance, this level also lines up with 50% FIB. SL: 1.2695

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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(6) AUD/USD - Sell @ 0.7533 (Daily Chart)

Comment: This is a long term positional play. Sell at previous support. SL: 0.7533

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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(6) FTSE100 - Sell @ 6400.1 (Daily Chart)

Comment: Sell into recent support area. SL: 6450.3 PT: 6284.3

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I might be a little optimistic with some of these profit targets, what do you think Tom?

Best Regards,

SiamCeltic
  • #6,058
  • Sep 23, 2015 12:31pm Sep 23, 2015 12:31pm
HI Wizard when you look at the first resistance before the breakout , does it have to be a pivot or simply the high of a bar / candle preceding the breakout.
Kind regards
  • #6,059
  • Sep 28, 2015 8:19am Sep 28, 2015 8:19am
Quoting MarkJoyce
By the way, I am new to the concept of Pinbars. Does the action on the AUD/USD on Friday count as one? Looks like one to me. {image}
Hi Mark,

Sorry for the late response but yes, that does qualify as a shooting star formation. Where these formations appear is vital. This one appeared at an excellent area of prior support lows that also offered confluence with the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the last major swing high - low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,060
  • Sep 28, 2015 8:24am Sep 28, 2015 8:24am
Quoting MarkJoyce
It was a bad trade regardless of the outcome. I wanted to sell it the day before at 7250, but there was no way I had the nerve to pull the trigger after the FOMC. When it came back up there and seemed to stall I sold it at 44 and put my stop above the previous days high. I was a trade born from frustration at missing the previous move that I correctly anticipated. I sold it at that level because my system for entrys on short timeframes is based on moving averages. But I should have left it be. ​ By the way I just bought series 1 of your special...
Thank you for the kind comments and I hope you enjoy the webinars.

Regarding the trade you outlined above, remember: whenever you take a trade you must ask yourself whether you are taking it to make up for something else (the previous trade you missed) or whether this is a valid setup in its own right.

And whilst this will likely irritate you now - be very careful where you place your stops. Just above a key swing high is usually one of the worst places. Traders repeatedly get caught in these areas.
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