The Really Useless Thread | Page 6851 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,001
  • Sep 18, 2015 8:46am Sep 18, 2015 8:46am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} I do not understand very well your question. If you asked me about Market behaviour, I have no idea. One fundamental item in Economy is that if you hike rates, you stop the Economy, and you stop the inflation. But, US is in deflation number's. A Economical tool is hake rates when the Economy is too hot (bubbles, inflation,etc).FED, should hike rates, as they understand that US has been too much years with this policy, but the Economical cycle is not giving now the right signals to do this. Europe has started much more late the easing...
And the moment of wonder is when you have potentional bubbles due to mal-investment thanks to crazy cheap money + kind of pretty good labor market but still NO inflation!
  • #137,002
  • Edited 9:17am Sep 18, 2015 9:04am | Edited 9:17am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} I do not understand very well your question. If you asked me about Market behaviour, I have no idea. One fundamental item in Economy is that if you hike rates, you stop the Economy, and you stop the inflation. But, US is in deflation number's. A Economical tool is hake rates when the Economy is too hot (bubbles, inflation,etc).FED, should hike rates, as they understand that US has been too much years with this policy, but the Economical cycle is not giving now the right signals to do this. Europe has started much more late the easing tool...
The FED wants higher/more employment (via investment) before they hike rates. In other terms, they expect investment. It's different in the US compared to to the EZ, because in the EZ, the ECB doesn't share the same power/mandate and is more or less dependent on the number of governments following their hints and guidelines, which for the most part, they simply don't at the moment.

Yellen repeatedly mentioned the end of 2018 yesterday, with a strong emphasis on what they call a "highly accomodative stance in just about any direction"... that must have created more insecurity than anything else.

I expect the E/U to remain range-bound for the time being and the G/U and A/U to be the more probable candidate for relaxed trading.

edit: The BoE jumped into the fray to possibly lower rates. I didn't expect that.

Have a nice weekend, (nearly) everyone
  • #137,003
  • Sep 18, 2015 9:24am Sep 18, 2015 9:24am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} The FED wants higher/more employment (via investment) before they hike rates. In other terms, they expect investment. It's different in the US compared to to the EZ, because in the EZ, the ECB doesn't share the same power/mandate and is more or less dependent on the number of governments following their hints and guidelines, which for the most part, they simply don't at the moment. Yellen repeatedly mentioned the end of 2018 yesterday, with a strong emphasis on what they call a "highly accomodative stance in just about any direction"......
forgot to add in the PM, keep your eyes open for those refugees....reports from .mil friends that they can't be trusted.... not just gators intuition
  • #137,004
  • Sep 18, 2015 9:44am Sep 18, 2015 9:44am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Hi Sisse, as the fomc turns out dovish and mixing with little confusion. Do you think there is gonna be a direct leg up and down of equities, Dollar pair and commodities or should they chop in a large range? Thank you P/s: I see gold has tech set up for 1185 whilst equities are mostly bearish and compressin... im also a little bit confused
I got your pm, they are weird on my mobile. miss pips explained what you are looking for in depth a few months ago in this thread. better than I can explain on mobile
  • #137,005
  • Sep 18, 2015 9:47am Sep 18, 2015 9:47am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I got your pm, they are weird on my mobile. miss pips explained what you are looking for in depth a few months ago in this thread. better than I can explain on mobile
Didnt expect to get the answer from u here

Anw thanks Pharmor, i'll be sure looking into it
  • #137,006
  • Sep 18, 2015 9:51am Sep 18, 2015 9:51am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} forgot to add in the PM, keep your eyes open for those refugees....reports from .mil friends that they can't be trusted.... not just gators intuition


Somehow we need to find a reason for war. I don't like the perspective, though... and the initiators, but that's a whole different story.
  • #137,007
  • Sep 18, 2015 10:16am Sep 18, 2015 10:16am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Didnt expect to get the answer from u here Anw thanks Pharmor, i'll be sure looking into it
yeah I avoid PMs from my phone, as they come out weird. won't be at trading desk until Monday
  • #137,008
  • Edited 11:44am Sep 18, 2015 11:01am | Edited 11:44am
A pretty anticlimactic end of the week. The juiciest move short term were in the only instruments i was not trading (equites). In general, very simple and calm day.

A quick review of the main short term flows after the FED: We completed the leg in OIL and first part of the zigzag in S&P. Gold just holding a timid break up and Euro failed by handful of ticks (3 ticks in my case arghhh!!! ... and i was a "dick for a tick" so sucking it up right now...) to complete 1.147x target from the swing 1.108x.

Quoting sisse
Floor ⇔ Flip ⇔ Top

GOLD....

GOLD

$975.xx | $1020.xx (strong) | $1075.xx (momentum) | $1108.xx ...|Actual|... $1128.xx (momentum) [check] | $1190.xx (strong) [in play] | $1235.xx


OIL

$25.6x | $36.2x (momentum) | $40.5x | $43.6x (momentum) ...|Actual|... $47.2x (strong) [check] | $49.9x


S&P

$1740.xx (Steel Support) | $1820.xx (very strong) | $1940.xx (momentum)[still in play] | $1985.xx [check] ...|Actual|... $2021.xx(soft) [check]| $2070.xx


Euro

$1.057x | $1.081x (momentum) | $1,091x (strong) | $1.108x | $1.127x (momentum) ...|Actual|... $1.147x (soft)[technically still in play ...failed by a handful ticks] | $1.184x (very strong)]



Tracking 1.138x for the W roll in the Euro as the rest of the board is pretty much in irrelevant levels for the close ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,009
  • Sep 18, 2015 11:23am Sep 18, 2015 11:23am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Tracking 1.1466 very closely with a dovish FED otherwise it's tight and uninteresting for me. All eyes on 1.097 in the coming days if a hawkish FED plays out and I miss my entries.

1995 (SPX.) is the only level to watch but played around the level fading whoever's left carrying the can there. So far only a break-back of 1960 with a hawkish FED is technically on the cards.

Initial signs and hints overall are for a dovish non-hike FED √
Shy of my level on the pair unfortunately but I honestly wasn't planning to fade the touch anyway (thank goodness.) Going to let this week settle down; it's looking like a neutral close at around 1.1375.

As suspected on equities, those holding at 1960 weren't going to fold without a fight with a dovish FED. Weak action from equities either way so looking out for some good hard data (not FED gobbledygook.) to make the moves.
  • #137,010
  • Sep 18, 2015 11:26am Sep 18, 2015 11:26am
Quoting sisse
A pretty anticlimactic end of the week. The juiciest move short term were in the only instruments i was not trading (equites). In general, very simple and calm day. A quick review of the main short term flows after the FED: We completed the leg in OIL and first part of the zigzag in S&P. Gold just holding a timid break up and Euro failed by handful of ticks (3 ticks in my case arghhh!!! ... and i was dick for ticks so sucking it up right now...) to complete 1.147x target from the swing 1.108x. {quote} GOLD $975.xx | $1020.xx (strong) | $1075.xx...
I think Correction's arre done... Happy weekend to alll....
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,011
  • Edited 11:47am Sep 18, 2015 11:33am | Edited 11:47am

  1. [quote=TuTang;8496048]{quote}..... Do you think there is gonna be a direct leg up and down of equities, Dollar pair and commodities or should they chop in a large range? Thank you P/s: I see gold has tech set up for 1185 whilst equities are mostly bearish and compressin... im also a little bit confused[/quote]


..well i think markets already answered your question S&P (2020.xx -> 1950.xx).
​

  1. [quote=Lavanda;8496221]{quote}... BUT, everything had aligned to not hike rates. There has never been a country hiking rates with deflation..., i.[/quote]


Agree but first US IS NOT in a deflation process. Plus hikes option in March/June with Oil $70...now OIL prolly below $30 by the end of the year ? so who is to blame ...they may have missed the train ...i hope not as the repercussion for the world economy will be very bad ...

 

  1. [quote=buttons;8496362]{quote} Hi Sisse, Very nice strong looking bear flag.. hard to ignore.. Technically I would say we are heading for the floor.. imho... unless we are starting qe4 soon? {image}[/quote]


Agree. Looks very difficult US equities not at least retesting that floor....but as long as there is zero interest rates and free money on the table we may have to wait until the actual hikes ....

 

  1. [quote=PIP Lover;8496716]{quote} ....My thought we will see money piling out of equities because they are "unsafe" due to global uncertainty in EM (China Brazil) ... QE will not help anymore and is not an option..?! Where will all this money go? EUR , GBP , CAD... This is what we are seeing so far right?! Again I am certainly not a fundamental trader nor expert, I am strictly TA and with your help and guidance I have had my best year EVER Your comments appreciated[/quote]


Thanks for your kind words.

Well I disagree. Money will happily flow to equities especially in the EZ. Negative rates, QE and macro numbers turning around. Why would anybody even consider putting money in EM? ....

In the US, I agree as long as first rates in play, we wont go far up, however the closer we get to the current floor the more attractive it will become to "buy value" for the long term so I hardly see any problem in equities as investment in Europe and the US. Sure short term rates will weight heavier and keep equities down till the first hikes...

In terms of currencies, I am not sure there will be much relocation of portfolios. No unless the FED take action.

Basically Euro has some short term attraction via equites but QE its a massive burden and it will offset anything beyond one more leg up in the euro. EM currencies will keep bleeding slowly until the final dagger with fed hikes come, GBP dead until hikes are cleared as the UK is actually in deflation, CAD a walking zombie, JPY in their own unattractive world.

AUD may hold better than the rest in the short term flows via gold rallying but in general i don't see much changes in FX until further data...

 

  1. [quote=Mr Hatch;8496597]{quote}{quote} Does it make the FED's USD-outlook dovish or hawkish? And what about the rest of the central banks, esp. the BoE? Who blinks (read: raises rates) first?[/quote]


The outcome was No rates/slightly confused FED. My mid term outlook since the last update a few week ago for the dollar remain NEUTRAL. The meeting didn't change my view. Technically the Q roll will make me revaluate but for now ..same levels, same trades, same all in the euro... ...

For the BOE, well there were HUGE numbers this week. The UK is officially in DEFLATION. The odds of BOE hiking plummeted after. If we follow the same logic as the FED, the UK WONT raise rates at least until next MARCH... As per today and this week numbers, the BOE is way behind the FED in rising rates ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,012
  • Sep 18, 2015 11:53am Sep 18, 2015 11:53am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Of course: Weekly: Buy signal at 1.099xx - [Open: 2015.05.25 / Close: 2015.05.29.] Monthly: Buy signal at 1.073xx - [Open: 2015.03.01. / Close: 2015.03.31.] Signal confirmation is at close. Edit: Open: 2015.05.24. -> Open: 2015.05.25.
I'm quite sure a lot of you (if not everyone) will disagree with me...but this is why I always said, don't trust fundamental information, news and main technical methods. If you observe the market in a specific way - in 3 or more dimensions (seeing into the market") - the only thing you have to do is to trust and wait. Do not listen and watch what the illusionist do, s/he is cheating your ears and eyes. Just my humble opinion.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,013
  • Sep 18, 2015 12:01pm Sep 18, 2015 12:01pm
Quoting hathor
{quote} I'm quite sure a lot of you (if not everyone) will disagree with me...but this is why I always said, don't trust fundamental informations. If you observe the market in a specific way - in 3 or more dimensions (seeing into the market") - the only thing you have to do is to trust and wait. Do not liaten and watch what the illusionist do, s/he is cheating your ears/eyes. Just my humble opinion.
trust and wait for what exactly? ...

...you are starting to sound like some of the newbies in these boards that they just discover a MA crossover [replace for whatever indicator combination you want here] and they think they found the HOLY GRAIL .... je je je

I know where are you going with your comments mate but as much as its true that having confidence, solid patience and trust in how you trade is a MUST for successful trading, I don't think you should confuse "trust" on your TA abilities with the actual fundamental underlyings of a Market that define direction...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,014
  • Sep 18, 2015 12:29pm Sep 18, 2015 12:29pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} trust and wait for what exactly? ... ...you are starting to sound like some of the newbies in these boards that they just discover a MA crossover [replace for whatever indicator combination you want here] and they think they found the HOLY GRAIL .... je je je I know where are you going with your comments mate but as much as its true that having confidence, solid patience and trust in how you trade is a MUST for successful trading, I don't think you should confuse "trust" on your TA abilities with the actual fundamental underlyings of a Market that define direction... sisse
Trust and wait:
When people saying SL is at X and TP is at Y I always starting to asking myself how s/he knows where the price is heading and how far? Well, the direction must be found due to some kind of strategy (indicators, levels, coin flip, etc), but how can s/he knows where is the right place to close the orders?

In my opinion: if a strategy works, than the exit signal must be an exact opposite of the entry signal. So in this case weekly and monthly signal is aligned in the same direction, therefore the longer term turnaround will come only when the signals are mirrored. And for this mirrored signal you have to wait a lot and trust your entry signal.

On the fundamental side all I can see: there are sometimes correlation between fundamentals and market behave, sometimes not. But since I'm monitoring the market (circa 7-8 years nearly every day) I'm more and more confident: fundamental (news/data/...) abracadabra is just a tool for the few to fool the mass (just like everyday technical analysis methods). When it works, people get profit, but when not, well..than people lose. And because of average human behave the second one is usually bigger, than the first, ergo in overall the trading community is in negative. But I'm not saying fundamentals are worthless. Just trying to say that fundamentals are like the prophets language: two edged words, and you can never trust them. Just like the main technical patterns, which actually can be transformed into each other (bullish pattern can be a bearish pattern in just one move) at any time.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,015
  • Sep 18, 2015 12:56pm Sep 18, 2015 12:56pm
hi sisse
what is the senarios for Greek election and effects on EURUSD?
  • #137,016
  • Sep 18, 2015 1:01pm Sep 18, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting hathor
.... In my opinion: if a strategy works, than the exit signal must be an
Quoting hathor
exact opposite of the entry signal. ...
I strongly disagree with that. I never have been a fan of a machine gun approach in trading and I even dare to say that the moment a trader understand that not being in a position is an actual position is the moment a trader will graduate as a successful trade... of course there are exceptions but exceptions that only confirm the rule....


Quoting hathor
.On the fundamental side all I can see: there are sometimes correlation between fundamentals and market behave, sometimes not. But since .... abracadabra is just a tool for the few to fool the mass (just like everyday technical analysis methods). When it works, people get profit, but when not, well..than ....
Let me give you my 2 cents. I think you are making a mistake in the way you perceive / use fundamentals for trading. If you are trying to use Fundamentals as the Holy Grail that will give the exact entries, exits , timings, rewards and what have you ...you are absolutely using fundamentals wrong.

Like anything else in trading, Fundamentals only allow you to not get caught in the wrong side and to trade a market from the path of less resistance. The money in fundamentals is not in how many time your are right in your analysis (oh well when you are right on top TA you have a jackpot !! that can make your year but that doesn't happen very often) but in how many times you are not getting caught in the wrong side of the market ....

...and like anything else in trading ....our job is not in knowing when to trade (there are millions of options every second) but in WHEN and what side NOT TO TRADE There is where Fundamentals will make the difference between another blind technical trade or an educated measured risk guess with a consistent winning ratio..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,017
  • Sep 18, 2015 2:22pm Sep 18, 2015 2:22pm
Quoting sisse
A pretty anticlimactic end of the week. The juiciest move short term were in the only instruments i was not trading (equites). In general, very simple and calm day. A quick review of the main short term flows after the FED: We completed the leg in OIL and first part of the zigzag in S&P. Gold just holding a timid break up and Euro failed by handful of ticks (3 ticks in my case arghhh!!! ... and i was a "dick for a tick" so sucking it up right now...) to complete 1.147x target from the swing 1.108x. {quote} GOLD $975.xx | $1020.xx (strong) | $1075.xx...

Looks like 2070 may not hold if we reach there by any chance.. 2170+ is what looks decent..
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #137,018
  • Sep 18, 2015 2:44pm Sep 18, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting Goldflake
Looks like 2070 may not hold if we reach there by any chance.. 2170+ is what looks decent..
2170 when? Maybe next year. In Oct/Nov maybe not far below it though, another run at the prior highs, 2140....I didn't see this FOMC week runup coming - SPY $195.x to $203, now we have sold off to within a quarter of the Monday low. I have to expect another cycle of same old same old TINA bullish action for US equities, there's at least a 100 pt upside for /ES around the bend, maybe 150.......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,019
  • Sep 18, 2015 3:01pm Sep 18, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting The Fool
I have to expect another cycle of same old same old TINA bullish action for US equities, there's at least a 100 pt upside for /ES around the bend, maybe 150.......
I just bought next weeks VXX $20 puts for 6c, looking out Oct/Oct4 at SPY diagonal calls $208/$209, a 4c debit - betting we reverse next week, if I'm wrong I'm out some change
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,020
  • Edited 4:23pm Sep 18, 2015 3:59pm | Edited 4:23pm
...and the usual "curious" timing for a downgrade from Moodys...I wonder who was betting on a hike ....

In any case, no surprises in the Euro a 100% retrace from the initial news reaction and we are back to the never ending and 100% point of the year 1.128x.

A rather neutral close in equities and euro but more importantly GOLD held the break up and OIL is on the brink one more time.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
23 traders viewing now