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  • #136,981
  • Sep 17, 2015 6:33pm Sep 17, 2015 6:33pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Thanks ... well i think Fool is aiming for a volatility breakout despite the direction. Point was still plenty of time for the FED play to pan out...Asia and Europe has to wake up first and show us how do they digest the news... sisse
Yeah, Fool is a wilely trader I pay close attention to. I have frequently found myself on the wrong side a trade and him on the right side.
What I am curious about is the little box under your name with a red square that reads "Euro rates". when I click on it it says you are bearish on the Euro as of August 27 and have a strong conviction for the year.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #136,982
  • Sep 17, 2015 6:41pm Sep 17, 2015 6:41pm
Quoting AaronWard
{quote} Yeah, Fool is a wilely trader I pay close attention to. I have frequently found myself on the wrong side a trade and him on the right side. What I am curious about is the little box under your name with a red square that reads "Euro rates". when I click on it it says you are bearish on the Euro as of August 27 and have a strong conviction for the year.
I discovered those options in FF 2 weeks ago ...so i just tested to see how they work....thats all... but yes obviously bearish on euro rates (no hikes till sep 2016 at least) since last year and bullish in us rates (one hike at least till Jan 2016) since March ...

The "initiated" date is just when i clicked the buttons ...nothing really market related...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,983
  • Sep 17, 2015 6:43pm Sep 17, 2015 6:43pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I discovered those options 2 weeks ago ...so i just tested to see how they work....thats all... but yes obviously bearish on euro rates (no hikes till sep 2016 at least) since last year and bullish in us rates (one hike at least till Jan 2016) ... The "initiated" date is just when i clicked the buttons ...nothing really market related... sisse
Ah... mystery solved. thanks
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #136,984
  • Sep 17, 2015 8:44pm Sep 17, 2015 8:44pm
Quoting sisse
and bullish in us rates (one hike at least till Jan 2016) since March ...
no way the Fed moves this year now. JY laid it out there pretty plain: they won't raise the ffr until there is a clear initiation of an uptrend in the m/l standard measures of inflation. If we don't see the major producers engineer an oil price jack through supply cuts, and if China/Brazil/etc economies continue their downward trajectory, there's not going to be any inflation to push the Fed off the dime. There's no guarantee that the Fed's backdown will rally risk assets, although that has been the recurrent meme for the last years: easy money, nowhere else to go for yield, pile into equities. That train may be running out of track with recession in the EM's and a commodity slump hanging around. I won't be surprised to see equities fall back into ranging pa as was seen for much of the year to date. I'm looking for some clues in the coming week of market action....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,985
  • Sep 17, 2015 11:32pm Sep 17, 2015 11:32pm
Sisse, absolutely superb content you have been providing lately. Much appreciated.

Quoting sisse
⇒⇒ No Hikes / Dovish FED ►

⇒ Bastards will love this option. Even the more QE camp will have a feast on the media .... very bad signal for the economy in the mid and long term. More importantly FED will completely lose the ability to offset any major shock in the next 6 months. Fingers cross China doesn't collapse or else. Expecting short term sharp rallies in Equities and gold and deep sell off in dollar
Bastards should be happy.. But it seems the fed has added another element to this.. International turmoil scare mongering

I think markets are confused/reluctant to go in the obvious direction. EUR/USD & equities SHOULD be strong buys at these levels, but this China cloud could cause havoc and try to pull markets to the other side. I just don't know how strong it will be. I am loaded up, but remaining cautious.

I think the biggest winner here will be Gold.
  • #136,986
  • Sep 18, 2015 12:56am Sep 18, 2015 12:56am
The right call in the end. They missed their window earlier in the year and subsequent events may have rendered a hike now a compounded mistake.

The market can make everyone look bad. They may feel they're not exerting much control or accuracy with their communication, but I agree, a good hard look at the state of the global economy is in order and wait for a solid floor under emerging markets.
  • #136,987
  • Sep 18, 2015 1:20am Sep 18, 2015 1:20am
Hi folks!

Weekly* & Monthly* signals are still unchanged, while on Daily & H4 & H1 there are mild sell signals.
So the overall situation is the same for me:
The lower I can buy, the happier I will be.

*:
Quoting hathor
{quote} Weekly: Buy signal at 1.099xx - [Open: 2015.05.25 / Close: 2015.05.29.] Monthly: Buy signal at 1.073xx - [Open: 2015.03.01. / Close: 2015.03.31.] Signal confirmation is at close. Edit: Open: 2015.05.24. -> Open: 2015.05.25.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,988
  • Sep 18, 2015 1:45am Sep 18, 2015 1:45am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} no way the Fed moves this year now. JY laid it out there pretty plain: they won't raise the ffr until there is a clear initiation of an uptrend in the m/l standard measures of inflation.....
FED made a bad mistake not hiking rates earlier this year (and yesterday as last v. late chance) and the will pay a a very heavy toll for it.

As we discussed earlier this week, now they are in a never ending race to chase markets moves and whatever economic flavour of the month on the table. Today China tomorrow Greece, the day after election, the day before employment, a week after inflation, etc , etc ...

Basically they are losing the ability to make and control monetary policy. FED now its just chasing facts instead of creating expectations.

We'll see but I take yesterday decision as a very negative outlook for the short and mid term.

Quoting diggo
...I think the biggest winner here will be Gold.
Thanks .... the biggest winner here are the big bastards that rode the pig down preemting the hike and now they will enjoy a few more months fleecing it with more 0 interest rates. Yhey are making the FED dance at their tune....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,989
  • Sep 18, 2015 1:50am Sep 18, 2015 1:50am
Quoting sisse
{quote} FED made a bad mistake not hiking rates earlier this year (and yesterday as last v. late chance) and the will pay a a very heavy toll for it. As we discussed earlier this week, now they are in a never ending race to chase markets moves and whatever economic flavour of the month on the table. Today China tomorrow Greece, the day after election, the day before employment, a week after inflation, etc , etc ... Basically they are losing the ability to make and control monetary policy. FED now its just chasing facts instead of creating...



And - it got very clear: what Goldman (you know: the self elected God) wants - Goldman gets.........
  • #136,990
  • Sep 18, 2015 2:39am Sep 18, 2015 2:39am
Quoting sisse
{quote} FED made a bad mistake not hiking rates earlier this year (and yesterday as last v. late chance) and the will pay a a very heavy toll for it. As we discussed earlier this week, now they are in a never ending race to chase markets moves and whatever economic flavour of the month on the table. Today China tomorrow Greece, the day after election, the day before employment, a week after inflation, etc , etc ... Basically they are losing the ability to make and control monetary policy. FED now its just chasing facts instead of creating expectations....
Hi Sisse, as the fomc turns out dovish and mixing with little confusion. Do you think there is gonna be a direct leg up and down of equities, Dollar pair and commodities or should they chop in a large range? Thank you
P/s: I see gold has tech set up for 1185 whilst equities are mostly bearish and compressin... im also a little bit confused
  • #136,991
  • Sep 18, 2015 3:58am Sep 18, 2015 3:58am
[quote=sisse;8495968]{quote} FED made a bad mistake not hiking rates earlier this year (and yesterday as last v. late chance)

I agree with you in the fundamental sentence... that now FED looks like they dance under WS music, BUT, everything had aligned to not hike rates. There has never been a country hiking rates with deflation..., if we hike rates we can make more deflation.. and that it's what US has got now. JY let the sentence very clear in a earlier speech ( I do not remember the month) that the inflation of 2% was a main goal. So, on the other hand, the decision is aligned under the Economics reviews...
  • #136,992
  • Sep 18, 2015 4:52am Sep 18, 2015 4:52am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Hi Sisse, as the fomc turns out dovish and mixing with little confusion. Do you think there is gonna be a direct leg up and down of equities, Dollar pair and commodities or should they chop in a large range? Thank you P/s: I see gold has tech set up for 1185 whilst equities are mostly bearish and compressin... im also a little bit confused
Hi TuTang,
was keeping an eye on the gold myself looking for confirmation of no rate hike with the support within tech chart attached from start of week. I had two signals form previous week to go long on both cable and fiber (copied to ff trading )... Using ICT method I have confluence to sweet point fib for reversal including recent support (blue line) within the bearish wedge.. 2 points of interest approaching with wedge and resistance.. Yellen concern with world economy given China and emerging market was a contrast to comments out of Uk mpc meeting earlier indicating less concern to cable strength.. Economists.. plenty of mixed signals.. Just stick with the plan..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #136,993
  • Sep 18, 2015 5:02am Sep 18, 2015 5:02am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I don't think you will be disappointed in the next few sessions ...2021.xx to the tick ... S&P ... | $1985.xx ...|Actual|... $2021.xx(soft) [check] | $2070.xx [still in play] sisse

Hi Sisse, Very nice strong looking bear flag.. hard to ignore.. Technically I would say we are heading for the floor.. imho... unless we are starting qe4 soon?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #136,994
  • Sep 18, 2015 7:16am Sep 18, 2015 7:16am
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting sisse
{quote} FED made a bad mistake not hiking rates earlier this year (and yesterday as last v. late chance) I agree with you in the fundamental sentence... that now FED looks like they dance under WS music, BUT, everything had aligned to not hike rates. There has never been a country hiking rates with deflation..., if we hike rates we can make more deflation.. and that it's what US has got now. JY let the sentence very clear in a earlier speech ( I do not remember the month) that the inflation of 2% was a main goal. So, on the
...
Does it make the FED's USD-outlook dovish or hawkish? And what about the rest of the central banks, esp. the BoE? Who blinks (read: raises rates) first?
  • #136,995
  • Sep 18, 2015 7:53am Sep 18, 2015 7:53am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} [...] Moreover, pushing back again the rate liftoff will be a very bad message sent to the markets. No Hike = We, FED Members, are not confident. The consequences may be worst.
Unbelievable FED, unbelievable pussy members, paralyzed and unable to take a bold decision.
Makes me think to what Churchill said one day.. They tried to avoid a crash on equities but now they will get one.
Euro equities may visit august lows IMO.
  • #136,996
  • Sep 18, 2015 8:04am Sep 18, 2015 8:04am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Unbelievable FED, unbelievable pussy members, paralyzed and unable to take a bold decision. Makes me think to what Churchill said one day.. They tried to avoid a crash on equities but now they will get one. Euro equities may visit august lows IMO.
With equities. Just take some very long term chart of US 500 and I bet that everyone in their right mind see that there is some problem going on. And who better should know than FED. I bet there is big probability of a huge correction/crash or however to call it. And in context of the decision: this is how I imagine their discussion: well, you know, now its too late to hike, if we hike we may be the trigger of another historical crash - cuz none of us really understand the complexity.....- so lets wait cuz "who does nothing, breaks nothing" and hope nothing bad happens and in case it does here we arive on our horses of NIR/QE 4 - who could blame us after all!
  • #136,997
  • Sep 18, 2015 8:17am Sep 18, 2015 8:17am
Quoting sisse
{quote} FED made a bad mistake not hiking rates earlier this year (and yesterday as last v. late chance) and the will pay a a very heavy toll for it. As we discussed earlier this week, now they are in a never ending race to chase markets moves and whatever economic flavour of the month on the table. Today China tomorrow Greece, the day after election, the day before employment, a week after inflation, etc , etc ... Basically they are losing the ability to make and control monetary policy. FED now its just chasing facts instead of creating expectations....
Bravo for the latest commentary and analysis - as always SUPERB and I think I speak for all of us here- THANK YOU!

I see equities hammered since the initial knee jerk reaction yesterday.
This is of course opposite to the monetary theory : low interest rates ---> equities up and vice versa.
My thought we will see money piling out of equities because they are "unsafe" due to global uncertainty in EM (China Brazil) ...
QE will not help anymore and is not an option..?!
Where will all this money go? EUR , GBP , CAD...
This is what we are seeing so far right?!

Again I am certainly not a fundamental trader nor expert, I am strictly TA and with your help and guidance I have had my best year EVER

Your comments appreciated
  • #136,998
  • Sep 18, 2015 8:19am Sep 18, 2015 8:19am
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Bravo for the latest commentary and analysis - as always SUPERB and I think I speak for all of us here- THANK YOU! I see equities hammered since the initial knee jerk reaction yesterday. This is of course opposite to the monetary theory : low interest rates ---> equities up and vice versa. My thought we will see money piling out of equities because they are "unsafe" due to global uncertainty in EM (China Brazil) ... QE will not help anymore and is not an option..?! Where will all this money go? EUR , GBP , CAD... This is what we are seeing...

hear hear......bravo... and thanks
  • #136,999
  • Sep 18, 2015 8:25am Sep 18, 2015 8:25am
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Bravo for the latest commentary and analysis - as always SUPERB and I think I speak for all of us here- THANK YOU! I see equities hammered since the initial knee jerk reaction yesterday. This is of course opposite to the monetary theory : low interest rates ---> equities up and vice versa. My thought we will see money piling out of equities because they are "unsafe" due to global uncertainty in EM (China Brazil) ... QE will not help anymore and is not an option..?! Where will all this money go? EUR , GBP , CAD... This is what we are seeing so far right?! Again I am certainly not a fundamental trader nor expert, I am strictly TA and with your help and guidance I have had my best year EVER Your comments appreciated
I also join this "thank you" as all the guidence is amazing. Plus I aso join "the best year ever" as there is nothing more important than having a FA to show you the direction! Too bad it takes so long to learn unlike learing any TA tool in a few hours. But definitely worth it! Thx
  • #137,000
  • Sep 18, 2015 8:37am Sep 18, 2015 8:37am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote}{quote} Does it make the FED's USD-outlook dovish or hawkish? And what about the rest of the central banks, esp. the BoE? Who blinks (read: raises rates) first?
I do not understand very well your question. If you asked me about Market behaviour, I have no idea. One fundamental item in Economy is that if you hike rates, you stop the Economy, and you stop the inflation. But, US is in deflation number's. A Economical tool is hake rates when the Economy is too hot (bubbles, inflation,etc).FED, should hike rates, as they understand that US has been too much years with this policy, but the Economical cycle is not giving now the right signals to do this.

Europe has started much more late the easing tool and rates close to zero, so the timing in Europe is different.
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