Attachments: The Really Useless Thread

The Really Useless Thread

#136,941
Edited 7:33am Sep 17, 2015 7:18am | Edited 7:33am

dasilva
| Additional Username | Joined Jul 2015 | 37 Posts

Sisse,

regarding Floor ⇔ Flip ⇔ Top

..would it be reasonable to assume that whichever extreme is reached first (Floor or Top) a swing to the other extreme will eventually play out at some point over the following months?

(a) Yes, (in theory).

(b) No, it's more complicated than that.

(c) Yes, but only if the instrument initially goes against its 'path of least resistance', e.g. EURUSD pushing higher to its top before its floor.

#136,942
Sep 17, 2015 7:49am Sep 17, 2015 7:49am

Goldflake
Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,054 Posts

Quoting sisse

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..and that was it for the European session. Lots of action expected later and lots of unaware soft hands will get wiped out in the next few days as the next legs will short-circuit short term indicator based traders, that have been trading the v. conformable FX ranges during the summer. ► From a Technical side and for trading: (cheatsheet) Here a quick cheatsheet with key technical levels and flows. All levels detailed are in play for the FED decision short term swings. Everything in between the levels is just thin air during the FED initial...

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Levels noted..Thank you..

When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...

#136,943
Sep 17, 2015 7:52am Sep 17, 2015 7:52am

sisse
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts

Quoting primejarvis

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{quote} Euro : (floor : 1.02xxxx ..... flip : 1.14xxx ...... top : 1.20xxx)

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I don't think either side is in play for todays (and/or short term swings) FED rates...

Quoting dasilva

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Sisse, regarding Floor ⇔ Flip ⇔ Top ..would it be reasonable to assume that whichever extreme is reached first (Floor or Top) a swing to the other extreme will eventually play out at some point over the following months? (a) Yes, (in theory). (b) No, it's more complicated than that. (c) Yes, but only if the instrument initially goes against its 'path of least resistance', e.g. EURUSD pushing higher to its top before its floor.

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b). No. The only zig zag potential play is the mid term swing from the top with no hikes/dovish FED 1.184x -> parity with ext 0.97xx which is beyond the scope of the cheatsheet I posted (the levels there are just for the initial short term reaction not for the mid term swings)...

Rates decision is not at all about the 'path of least resistance', it actually quite the opposite is about the path with stronger force ...and that will be defined not by your charts this time but macro flows that will rage the board after the announcement ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now

#136,944
Sep 17, 2015 7:57am Sep 17, 2015 7:57am

edyraper
Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Klugscheißer | 8,318 Posts

Quoting sisse

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{quote} I don't think either side is in play for todays (and/or short term swings) FED rates... {quote} b). No. The only zig zag potential play is the mid term swing from the top with no hikes/dovish FED 1.184x -> parity with ext 0.97xx which is beyond the scope of the cheatsheet I posted (the levels there are just for the initial short term reaction not for the mid term swings)... Rates decision is not at all about the 'path of least resistance', it actually quite the opposite is about the path with stronger force ...and that will be defined not...

Ignored

sisse do you think : no rate hike , pointing the next meeting + hawkish tone = USDX up ( not down even without hike )
I mean spike to 16xx or even 18xx this week and then down ?

#136,945
Sep 17, 2015 7:59am Sep 17, 2015 7:59am

dasilva
| Additional Username | Joined Jul 2015 | 37 Posts

Quoting sisse

Disliked

{quote} I don't think either side is in play for todays (and/or short term swings) FED rates... {quote} b). No. The only zig zag potential play is the mid term swing from the top with no hikes/dovish FED 1.184x -> parity with ext 0.97xx which is beyond the scope of the cheatsheet I posted (the levels there are just for the initial short term reaction not for the mid term swings)... Rates decision is not at all about the 'path of least resistance', it actually quite the opposite is about the path with stronger force ...and that will be defined not...

Ignored

Understood, thanks!

#136,946
Sep 17, 2015 8:03am Sep 17, 2015 8:03am

primejarvis
| Joined Aug 2013 | Status: "Don't follow me i'm already lost " | 1,136 Posts

[quote=sisse;8494185]{quote} I don't think either side is in play for todays (and/or short term swings) FED rates... {quote}

Dead End for E/u pair downtrend 1.02xxx ...

1.20xxx is for the gap closing ....

and 1.14xxx & 1.16xxx is for correction ....

all are technical levels and with no fundamentals ....

For today i don't have any plans .... i am still holding short ...

All d best Sisse ... and all the traders ... goodluck to everyone....

Re-Incarnated

#136,947
Sep 17, 2015 8:04am Sep 17, 2015 8:04am

sisse
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts

Quoting edyraper

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{quote} sisse do you think : no rate hike , pointing the next meeting + hawkish tone = USDX up ( not down even without hike ) I mean spike to 16xx or even 18xx this week and then down ?

Ignored

Well thats the tricky part. A proper hike will sent euro to the floor non stop ...as I mentioned this is my list of scenarios expectations ...

Quoting sisse

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....Hawkish ⇔ Dovish

⇒⇒ Real Sep Hike >= 0.25 ........ ⇒⇒ Soft Sep Hike < 0.15 ........ ⇒⇒ Confused FED ........ ⇒⇒ No Hike Sep/Hawkish FED ........ ⇒⇒ No Hikes / Dovish FED

► From the fundamental side:

more probable scenario ⇔ less probable scenario

Ignored

Choose you poising careful. If you haven't done it yet preemptively this or let week its now too late to play it and there is better bang for risk to stay aside until the announcements, if you have just sit tight and get ready to run fast or flip on the spot ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now

#136,948
Sep 17, 2015 8:04am Sep 17, 2015 8:04am

Goldflake
Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,054 Posts

Hi Sissie,

Pls have a look at this post...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=552798

Expecting a reply...

When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...

#136,949
Sep 17, 2015 8:12am Sep 17, 2015 8:12am

edyraper
Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Klugscheißer | 8,318 Posts

Quoting sisse

Disliked

{quote} Well thats the tricky part. A proper hike will sent euro to the floor non stop ...as I mentioned this is my list of scenarios expectations ... {quote} Choose you poising careful. If you haven't done it yet preemptively this or let week its now too late to play it and there is better bang for risk to stay aside until the announcements, if you have just sit tight and get ready to run fast or flip on the spot ... sisse

Ignored

thanks for the explanation

#136,950
Sep 17, 2015 8:40am Sep 17, 2015 8:40am

TuTang
| Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Trader | 806 Posts

Quoting sisse

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....and we are finally here. FED rates in play in nearly 7 years (that's an eternity at 0 interest rates !!! under any record). Markets in no man's land until the announcement. As usual (especially today) all micro and short term levels RAISED. Only macro and fundamental levels in play until the W close (we have large options expiration too and futures rollovers ...uff). Actual initial knee jerk reaction flows will be impossible to realistically trade during the announcement. If you are not already in with a good entry (whatever the side) better...

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from the point of view of commercial sector, best two options are mini hikes 0.15 or no hikes with a hawkish tone confirming that Dec is set for take off. I wont mind such scenario happening. those would soften the shocks while maintain a solid floor on commodity price building toward a very long-term bottom. But for the moment i'm loaded and locked from below speculating against my belief

#136,951
Sep 17, 2015 9:47am Sep 17, 2015 9:47am

The Fool
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,165 Posts

Quoting sisse

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....and we are finally here. ⇒ Fed will get rid of the hot potato and please both sides regaining the upper hand in terms of monetary policy. Positive signal in the short and mid term. We'll have to wait for the real deal (real hike) at the end of year. Watch out short term for equites and dollar selling off but finding strong support at the lows to form a base for a zigzag move.

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my bet the above, basically what was implied in the staff report leak a month ago, a 15 bps baby step - result a dip in US equities to the August lows and then a rally back in October....

"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake

#136,952
Sep 17, 2015 10:40am Sep 17, 2015 10:40am

eborn
| Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Trader | 245 Posts

Quoting sisse

Disliked

{quote} Choose you poising careful. If you haven't done it yet preemptively this or let week its now too late to play it and there is better bang for risk to stay aside until the announcements, if you have just sit tight and get ready to run fast or flip on the spot ... sisse

Ignored

Thanks for the great insights. Following OIL closely the coming few weeks!
And gl to you!

#136,953
Sep 17, 2015 11:12am Sep 17, 2015 11:12am

sisse
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts

....and that was it for the US morning session ...all set and ready to roll for the FED. Good time for the final post for the FED play ...

► For the actual flows:

As mentioned before, if you are not deep in the money by now is not point trading the FED initial reaction as the r:r is beyond reasonable levels. In any case, for the actual flows. Like usual with a rate in play 3 Stages with all micro and intraday levels not in play any longer:

⇒ 1.Headline (untradable ...only applicable in a hike)
⇒ 2. dots, outlook and conference (extended till the W roll)
⇒ 3. the actual real leg (short term swing and beyond)

I wont go in details in all instrument as it will be too much information ... but in general for the euro:

Hike/Hawkish = farewell rally over in euro for this year

$1.108x (small hike) | 1.096x (0.25 hike) non stop for today's close| $1.091x (small hike) | 1.081x (0.25 hike) unlocking $1.057 final target for the short term swing with a strong stop 1.081x. ...all tradable with the break below flip area and/or a super reverso play for those still holding longs from below

No Hike / Dovish = extended rally in euro until next Q.

1.147x (no hike/hawkish fed) | 1.154x (no hike dovish) for today's close| $1.169x (no hike/hawkish) | 1.184x (dovish) completing final target $1.184x for the short term swing without any stops in between. ...all tradable if you are holding from below or with the break 1.147x with a daily/intraday combo in the next few sessions.

I will be in trading lock down mode during the FED so we'll update outlooks when the news has settle ...

Good luck all today as we could settle the flows for the rest of year ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now

#136,954
Sep 17, 2015 12:11pm Sep 17, 2015 12:11pm

sisse
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts

... I am sure you all have seen it before ... for those newcomers for a FED hike ...the audio is extreme (min 2:30 onward its just brilliant) on the 2010 flash crash but the DOM movement is a great reminder of what happens during big impact news and zero liquidity in one of the most liquid instrument in the world (you can imagining what happens in some of the thin FX instruments )...

Inserted Video