Fundamentals/News - reactions to the upcoming FOMC meeting | Forex Factory

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Fundamentals/News - reactions to the upcoming FOMC meeting

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 14, 2015 5:36pm Sep 14, 2015 5:36pm
Does anyone know or have an opinion on:

If the FED chooses to keep rates as they are, will the EUR/USD go up, down or sideways?

Is this outcome already largely baked-in to the market?

Thanks.
  • #2
  • Sep 14, 2015 5:50pm Sep 14, 2015 5:50pm
I'm on the sidelines this week. I personally feel it's a gamble, and it's just not worth the risk :\. The lack of liquidity in the markets so far this week tells me I'm not the only one that feels this way!
  • #3
  • Sep 14, 2015 8:51pm Sep 14, 2015 8:51pm
Quoting ordonsoup
Does anyone know or have an opinion on: If the FED chooses to keep rates as they are, will the EUR/USD go up, down or sideways? Is this outcome already largely baked-in to the market? Thanks.
Outcomes are not baked into the market. Nobody knows.
  • #4
  • Sep 15, 2015 3:03am Sep 15, 2015 3:03am
So if the FED does not raise rates, do you expect EURUSD to rise?
  • #5
  • Sep 15, 2015 4:15am Sep 15, 2015 4:15am
Quoting ordonsoup
Does anyone know or have an opinion on: If the FED chooses to keep rates as they are, will the EUR/USD go up, down or sideways? Is this outcome already largely baked-in to the market? Thanks.
You're too late man, the fed already announced it would hike rates - and EUR/USD went down 2,000 pips. If you are just trying to figure it out now, your trading plan is way out of sync with fundamental movements - the smart traders have been making money on this move for two years, and are getting out now.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #6
  • Sep 15, 2015 4:58am Sep 15, 2015 4:58am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} You're too late man, the fed already announced it would hike rates - and EUR/USD went down 2,000 pips. If you are just trying to figure it out now, your trading plan is way out of sync with fundamental movements - the smart traders have been making money on this move for two years, and are getting out now.
can u please go into more detail? how did u figured out?
  • #7
  • Sep 15, 2015 8:38am Sep 15, 2015 8:38am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} You're too late man, the fed already announced it would hike rates - and EUR/USD went down 2,000 pips. If you are just trying to figure it out now, your trading plan is way out of sync with fundamental movements - the smart traders have been making money on this move for two years, and are getting out now.
I'm new.
  • #8
  • Sep 15, 2015 10:54am Sep 15, 2015 10:54am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} You're too late man, the fed already announced it would hike rates - and EUR/USD went down 2,000 pips. If you are just trying to figure it out now, your trading plan is way out of sync with fundamental movements - the smart traders have been making money on this move for two years, and are getting out now.
eDear sir, any references for this news updatd?
  • #9
  • Sep 16, 2015 1:12am Sep 16, 2015 1:12am
If you go back and read some FOMC statements from the last two years, you'll see they constantly said a lower unemployment rate would be the catalyst for ending QE and starting to hike rates. They even drew lines in the sand, putting approximate targets on this figure. In that time, the unemployment rate trended consistently down to 5.1%, where it is now. This trend was well and truly supported by other factors like retail sales, economic growth and business confidence, so it never looked like missing those targets. EUR/USD also fell 2,000 pips in that time.

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If you can ignore the throng of wiseguy blowhards around here constantly screaming that the fed are liars, they manipulate markets, they deliberately trap traders or whatever conspiracy du jour, and think calmly for a second about how things unfolded over the last few years, you'll realise that the fed did exactly what it said it would do. It always does.

Calm, patient traders who don't try to be wiseguys, who just quietly and consistently take trades in the direction of fed guidance, should have made money off this move even with near-random entries and exits. Making money is less fun than trying to be a wiseguy though.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #10
  • Sep 16, 2015 10:03pm Sep 16, 2015 10:03pm
ordonsoup it's important to know there are economic projections, yellen speech and rate decision all in one. With the hype and uncertainty of a hike, any increased rate will add strength to the USD thus creating downward action in the EUR/USD. Just know that depending on the rate decision and the speech/projections could create a reversal or create a great buying or selling opportunity. Be careful not to trust themarkets initial moves. Wild swings could occur. If they don't hike expect initial drop in USD or increase in EUR/USD. If fed doesn't hike but gives positive guidance it could lend a great buying opportunity over longer term
  • #11
  • Sep 17, 2015 5:51am Sep 17, 2015 5:51am
Thank you for your information, but sorry for any inconviniences!
Can show the point that you got other data that Fed hited rate
and making US strong?

By the way, so now on this Sep-2015 still US Dollar strong or what we have to consider?
again for now for currencies paired the USD should we buy or sell now ?
  • #12
  • Sep 17, 2015 5:17pm Sep 17, 2015 5:17pm
Quoting mrrtrades
ordonsoup it's important to know there are economic projections, yellen speech and rate decision all in one. With the hype and uncertainty of a hike, any increased rate will add strength to the USD thus creating downward action in the EUR/USD. Just know that depending on the rate decision and the speech/projections could create a reversal or create a great buying or selling opportunity. Be careful not to trust themarkets initial moves. Wild swings could occur. If they don't hike expect initial drop in USD or increase in EUR/USD. If fed doesn't hike...
Thanks, that's all I was really looking for. Did a bunch of research prior to the FOMC decision today and caught a good chunk of the move in the EURUSD pair. FOREX fundamentals are much more complicated than commodities, but I like the liquidity and there always seems to be a pair that is moving, unlike commodities which can have some real dead times.
  • #13
  • Last Post: Sep 22, 2015 10:34pm Sep 22, 2015 10:34pm
Dear all
Could you please check update for any suggestion about FOMC within this week
What will happen for currencies pair?
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