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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #29,101
  • Sep 8, 2015 12:14am Sep 8, 2015 12:14am
Quoting JonnyPip
{quote} Hi Nic, Looking at the EurJpy - the buying we have seen coming in seems very strong, too strong I suspect for this to just be a normal retracement. Counter trend moves are usually slow and choppy as they are fighting the trend. If you see a move like this (which is more or less as straight a line of price movement as you could get on my chart) you have to thinking that this is the start of a move up, even if it is just the start or a bigger correction on a higher chart. So with that in mind, I will be looking for a pullback and move higher....
Hi Jonny,

Quoting from your reply "If you see a move like this (which is more or less as straight a line of price movement as you could get on my chart) you have to thinking that this is the start of a move up.... "

I'm afraid I don't understand this bit here. Can you please explain? Thanks.

Yes please send me you chart pn the ove down to 133.42

Thank you.
  • #29,102
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:08am Sep 8, 2015 2:08am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi Jonny, Quoting from your reply "If you see a move like this (which is more or less as straight a line of price movement as you could get on my chart) you have to thinking that this is the start of a move up.... " I'm afraid I don't understand this bit here. Can you please explain? Thanks. Yes please send me you chart pn the ove down to 133.42 Thank you.
Hi Nic,

Hopefully the charts below as a bit of a step by step will give you a better idea of how I view it.


Chart 1 - Analyzing your support and resistance.

Chart 2 - Entry

Chart 3 - Profit

Chart 4 - Post trade expectations

Hope this helps

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurJpy 4h resis 8.9.15.jpg Size: 281 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Eurjpy 4h 8.9.15.jpg Size: 279 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Eurjpy 4h 8.9.15 profit.jpg Size: 277 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Eurjpy 4h final 8.9.15.jpg Size: 269 KB
  • #29,103
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:21am Sep 8, 2015 2:21am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi Jonny, Quoting from your reply "If you see a move like this (which is more or less as straight a line of price movement as you could get on my chart) you have to thinking that this is the start of a move up.... " I'm afraid I don't understand this bit here. Can you please explain? Thanks. Yes please send me you chart pn the ove down to 133.42 Thank you.
EurGbp trade

Please note it did break the rules slightly as rules state profit at 21ema. This would have still been a good trade to 21ema but with large analysis it was worth holding

Holding past the 21ema can be risky though if it is not in line with macro moves.

Price is now reaching a point to consider taking profit or adding to position

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurGbp 8.9.15.jpg Size: 266 KB
  • #29,104
  • Sep 8, 2015 10:53pm Sep 8, 2015 10:53pm
Thanks Jonny for your reply.
  • #29,105
  • Sep 9, 2015 1:54am Sep 9, 2015 1:54am
Hi can someone tell me what these candlestick patterns are?

Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Candle_pattern.png Size: 13 KB
  • #29,106
  • Sep 9, 2015 4:34am Sep 9, 2015 4:34am
Not sure what exactly to anticipate for USDCAD. But I think it might not move away from 21ema just yet, after a pull back to it. MACD pull back to zero level is not quite finished yet.

I think price might just move all the way to the upper TL and gets rejected from there to the lower TL. MACD could be be set to pull back to zero level completely as price move to the upper TL.

Please give me your feedback on my thoughts. Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_H4_9_Sept_2015.png Size: 42 KB
  • #29,107
  • Sep 10, 2015 8:04am Sep 10, 2015 8:04am
Quoting nic73
Hi can someone tell me what these candlestick patterns are? Thanks. {image}
Hi Nic,

This is how I see the UsdCad. It has been in this wedge shape range but it is coming towards the end of the pattern now, might not break out until Usd interest rate decision next week but who knows.

As it stands this thing should be heading higher to the 1.4 area in my opinion, so for me it is about positioning for the breakout.

When price is crossing the MA's like this is means it is ranging, so it is a good time to add your trend lines.

It has just made it's third touch of the longer trend line and a nice pin candle showing good buying coming into the market at that point. It has also broken 21ema, pulled back and moved away with a TC pattern. I have put the stop loss outside of the trend line however to give it room to work.

I see this as a good set up and have taken the trade anticipating the break out. I am not interested in taking short profits here, my target is 1.4 which is 740 pips to the upside with plenty of chances to add. If this position gets stopped out, so be it, I will look to re-establish a long position anywhere above that 1.2950/1.30 area.

Hope this helps
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdCad 10.09.15 4h breakout.jpg Size: 293 KB
  • #29,108
  • Sep 11, 2015 2:24am Sep 11, 2015 2:24am
EurCad

Closed long position (21 ema - 89sma) for almost 150 pips. Now entering short (89sma - 200/365/trendline *maybe further*)

Will be looking to see how it reacts to that trend line and the 1.4740 area.

It may push higher however before it comes lower but I think it is heading south for the next couple of weeks at least

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurCad 4h - reverse 11.09.15.jpg Size: 244 KB
  • #29,109
  • Sep 11, 2015 4:50pm Sep 11, 2015 4:50pm
Quoting JonnyPip
{quote} Hi Nic, This is how I see the UsdCad. It has been in this wedge shape range but it is coming towards the end of the pattern now, might not break out until Usd interest rate decision next week but who knows. As it stands this thing should be heading higher to the 1.4 area in my opinion, so for me it is about positioning for the breakout. When price is crossing the MA's like this is means it is ranging, so it is a good time to add your trend lines. It has just made it's third touch of the longer trend line and a nice pin candle showing good...
Took another look at USDCAD today. Spotted a sHs on Daily time frame. Could have a potential for about 200pip at the break out of the upper channel. (My target profit different from yours Jonny) but then there is no right or wrong, it's how different trader see things that's all. I near in mind the 1.4000 level you mention and keep an eye on that.

I have not jumped into the wagon yet, waiting for the break out to do that. Too early I could get killed. And as usual entry is one of the most difficult decision - when and where.....

Have a good weekend.
  • #29,110
  • Sep 11, 2015 5:06pm Sep 11, 2015 5:06pm
AUDNZD

Took this trade, counter trend on Friday. But closed it of at break even as it was not looking promising.

At the close on Friday, this is my observation:
1. Price rejected upper trend line 6 times, not quite about to break above. Or it did once but could not stay above the TL.
2. Price kind of tried to pull back to upper TL but then rejected it and was moving down south again before closing off for the weekend.
3. Price on Friday closed with a doji. Undecisice market.
4. Price has be reacting with a channel (upper and lower TL) for some time now.

Could this pair continue to make it down south next week? Any thoughts on this?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD_H4_12_Sept_2015.png Size: 45 KB
  • #29,111
  • Edited 11:48am Sep 12, 2015 11:31am | Edited 11:48am
Hi does anyone have e-mail contact to Phillip? ? If yes please for priv.
I would like to share his Crash Course for my friends with Polish subtitles but without his consent I will not share it in public.
I'm using Google Translator.
  • #29,112
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:57am Sep 14, 2015 12:57am
GbpAud

Break of 89ma- pullback-move to 200

I am already in from 1h time frame so will have to watch closely how this candle closes in the 4h

Looks like a nice 4h macd set up though

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpAud - 14.09.15 4h rhythm 89-200.jpg Size: 267 KB
  • #29,113
  • Sep 14, 2015 1:55am Sep 14, 2015 1:55am
Quoting JonnyPip
GbpAud Break of 89ma- pullback-move to 200 I am already in from 1h time frame so will have to watch closely how this candle closes in the 4h Looks like a nice 4h macd set up though {image}
I have a question about selling this pair - MACD is approaching 0.45 level on 4hr time frame. Have you considered that? And the last two candle before your entry, it seems that rice stop at about the same level and could not go further south. I have a trend line (s&r) at that level. Just my humble opinion.
  • #29,114
  • Sep 14, 2015 2:52am Sep 14, 2015 2:52am
Quoting nic73
{quote} I have a question about selling this pair - MACD is approaching 0.45 level on 4hr time frame. Have you considered that? And the last two candle before your entry, it seems that rice stop at about the same level and could not go further south. I have a trend line (s&r) at that level. Just my humble opinion.
Hi Nic,

I think you mean the daily one, certainly there is a chance this could hold price. There are 2 targets as per macd rules but if you have a look at the last picture I actually put a limit in order in at the first one to close the trade. This is because below there is strong support there so 365 might be a little ambitious. This pair is also still in an uptrend so I will be looking to buy around the 200 ma if possible.

There is some evidence here that it should move down at least a little further as it has made lower highs and lower lows so it is being pushed down by traders.

I will monitor it around that trend line but I think it will reach 200 ma. Ultimately this is a counter trend trade.

Regards the 0.45 level on the macd - it can be useful as a guide line but I don't get hung up on the macd levels to be honest because they are more just additional evidence rather than a *reason* to trade a trade in my opinion. As you can in the picture it smashed through the -0.45 levels a few times in the recent past anyway.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpAud - 14.09.15 4h rhythm 89-200 lower highs and lows.jpg Size: 276 KB
  • #29,115
  • Edited Sep 15, 2015 12:13am Sep 14, 2015 4:24pm | Edited Sep 15, 2015 12:13am
Hi Jonny,

You have made some nice pips on GBPAUD by now. Nice catch and thanks for the charts and explanation above.

The market direction is very vague. Neither here nor there. Watching EURJPY and EURUSD it was counter trend and moved towards 21ema. But I did not take them because risk reward did not permit me to do so.

I have here AUDNZD. It was moving in a channel and broke out of the upper trend line, pulled back to it (not quite complete) and now looks moving away from it. MACD is a TC? If moving away candle is a nice large one / bullish engulfing? this could be a potential trade?

Need your insight on this. Or anyone else. Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD_H4_15_Sept_2015.png Size: 39 KB


Update 6 hours later:
Already into trade for buy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD_H4_15_Sept_2015_entry.png Size: 16 KB
  • #29,116
  • Edited Sep 15, 2015 12:07am Sep 14, 2015 5:04pm | Edited Sep 15, 2015 12:07am
Another anticipation for this week: USDJPY

Market has been reacting within a triangle, and about to break out?

Anticipation to sell:

Market has breached 89sma (sign that market want to turn bearish?). It is at present pull back to 89sma / 21ema. Pull back might go pass MAs, slightly (as it could move on to 89sma on 1 hour time frame); before turning around and move down south. MACD is pull back to zero line, and expect to turn around in preparation for price to move southwards - zero break.

Weekly and daily TF, price has rejected 21ema a few times, this could be a sign that market is wanting to go down south.

Stop = 365ema / upper TL + 10 pips
TP 1 = 50% fib
TP 2 = 61.8% fib
Price could stall at TP 2 before continuing down trend to 116.20.

Anticipation to buy:
Break 21ema, pull back and move away. MACD = bounce off zero.

TP 1 = 365ema
TP 2 = 200sma (break out of triangle - a pull back could occur before moving away)

Your feedback is valuable. Please comment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_H4_15_Aept_2015.png Size: 42 KB


Update on USDJPY (6 hours later)

Market has breached the 89sma and bottom trendline and now waiting for a pull back (hopefully) and move away.
  • #29,117
  • Sep 15, 2015 12:04am Sep 15, 2015 12:04am
EURJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD

Waiting for a break of 89sma, pull back and move away.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_H4_15_Sept_2015.png Size: 40 KB
  • #29,118
  • Sep 15, 2015 2:04am Sep 15, 2015 2:04am
Quoting nic73
Hi Jonny, You have made some nice pips on GBPAUD by now. Nice catch and thanks for the charts and explanation above. The market direction is very vague. Neither here nor there. Watching EURJPY and EURUSD it was counter trend and moved towards 21ema. But I did not take them because risk reward did not permit me to do so. I have here AUDNZD. It was moving in a channel and broke out of the upper trend line, pulled back to it (not quite complete) and now looks moving away from it. MACD is a TC? If moving away candle is a nice large one / bullish engulfing?...
Hi Nic,

No problem it was a nice set up in the end. Just about wicked my limit order, went about 1 or 2 pips past and turned back around for about nearly +160 pips. Primarily because many others would have had there limit in the same place so took profits by buying back the winning positions. That's why we got that bounce.

I'm looking for a chance to go long Gbp Aud from here now.

My opinion is:

The AuzNzd trade could be taken but I wouldn't take it as it looks due a pullback fairly soon giving a better opportunity.

The EurUsd trade is a little risky in my opinion (as all counter trend trades can be), but I am already long EurUsd from around 1.20 so anticipating moves higher.

UsdJpy I also have my eye on however the break through 89sma was too small for me, this break now is the one I was looking for. So now I will just wait for a pullback and I would be looking for a move to the 119 level. It may not pullback but I think it will in say the 1h time frame. If it doesn't give the set up so be it. Its Fed rate decision thursday as well so will possibly close out usd positions before the announcement, will have to see.

EurJpy I am also looking for a pullback before potentially a move lower BUT as a short term trade. There was some serious buying coming into the EurJpy last week and I would be surprised if that just gets turned over. I anticipate a move down and then a move up. Possibly to the 145.50 level.

P.s - Not sure if you trade copper but there was a similar GbpAud trade this morning which I took, is working out quite nicely as well.


  • #29,119
  • Sep 17, 2015 10:01am Sep 17, 2015 10:01am
come someone plz tell me a good broker for a dome I'm with trading212 but they are playing with the take profit not giving it what it should and playing with the profit I know its not real money but still a bad joke I ask they about it they just play dumb
  • #29,120
  • Sep 17, 2015 12:16pm Sep 17, 2015 12:16pm
try rubixfx or global prime au - great true ECN brokers

Quoting Ross88
come someone plz tell me a good broker for a dome I'm with trading212 but they are playing with the take profit not giving it what it should and playing with the profit I know its not real money but still a bad joke I ask they about it they just play dumb
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