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  • #136,881
  • Sep 11, 2015 11:29am Sep 11, 2015 11:29am
Quoting sisse
until we find a more sustainable equilibrium. Oil extreme short term unbalance between sply/demand are neither healthy or sustainable for the world economy for much long ...
I expect some big fat dominos to fall in 2016.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,882
  • Sep 11, 2015 11:34am Sep 11, 2015 11:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} given what a bunch of weenies the Yellen FOMC are, I am still betting on a baby step hike Thursday, 10-15 bps, but even that may be enough to rock the markets. If they whiff next week, I'd bet everything off the table until 1/27/2016. They probably know through the Illuminati pipeline that $75+ oil is coming back in 2016, so they also know they are behind the curve perilously.....and they can't wait any longer...my better bets are on a sharp break lower for US indices by the end of next week, but I am playing the opposite reaction, as well....
I think m we'll have a mover next week regardless of decision. Test of lows with hikes, pullback to break out with no hikes ...map is already set in equities...not getting massacred in the middle is the only thing to avoid until then..sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,883
  • Sep 11, 2015 11:41am Sep 11, 2015 11:41am
Quoting sisse
not getting massacred in the middle is the only thing to avoid until then..sisse
yeah, thanks - sitting /ES 1950 is my "middle" and I need to be >50 pts beyond that Thurs-Fri...just waiting for the show now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,884
  • Sep 11, 2015 11:46am Sep 11, 2015 11:46am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} given despite what a bunch of weenies the Yellen FOMC are, I am still betting on a baby step hike Thursday, 10-15 bps, but even that may be enough to rock the markets. If they whiff next week, I'd bet everything off the table until 1/27/2016. They probably know through the Illuminati pipeline that $75+ oil is coming back in 2016, so they also know they are behind the curve perilously.....and they can't wait any longer...my better bets are on a sharp break lower for US indices by the end of next week, but I am playing the opposite...
When you get a chance this weekend, mind elaborating a bit? If you haven't figured it out already- I've gotten quite an interest in the black liquid lately.
  • #136,885
  • Sep 11, 2015 11:59am Sep 11, 2015 11:59am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} When you get a chance this weekend, mind elaborating a bit? If you haven't figured it out already- I've gotten quite an interest in the black liquid lately.
lol, I'm just bs'ing - I don't have any insider info and wti could go to $20 this Winter, like the Squid says. Only the Saudis have stick big enough to swing & really drive the price back up on production cuts. I don't even know if they could get that done with chaos amongst the OPEC states and the other major oil producers. If it's going to be a "free market" (imagine that) driven by supply/demand then we could be watching wti stumble around lower & lower, or at least below $50....for years. I am just guessing that something will have to give, sooner than later, because too much money is being lost....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,886
  • Sep 11, 2015 12:03pm Sep 11, 2015 12:03pm
haha, here I was hoping for some wisdom! Fool!

trying to soak up all info regarding oil. oil = $$$. Wouldnt even mind dropping forex all together if I get to where I can trade oil in the same capacity. Don't know how I've missed out on it so long...perhaps because I simply couldnt afford it.
  • #136,887
  • Sep 11, 2015 12:30pm Sep 11, 2015 12:30pm
Quoting Pharm0r
perhaps because I simply couldnt afford it.
well, it's a different game than trading fiber minilots - I think oil is a great market to trade but one that will take all the attention and risk you can throw at it - check the /CL and options on it & you will see what kind of bankroll you will need.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,888
  • Sep 11, 2015 12:35pm Sep 11, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting The Fool
check the /CL and options on it & you will see what kind of bankroll you will need.
maint margin @ $4,600

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...ml?41939.47671=
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,889
  • Sep 11, 2015 2:30pm Sep 11, 2015 2:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} maint margin @ $4,600 http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...ml?41939.47671=
Yup. Exactly what I meant.

Starting off small. Spot trading cost me a 6 pip spread @ $60 a contract or lot, however you want to word it. So I already start off -$60 x lot #. That gets expensive quick....might as well double it because I usually require a 5-15 pip stop on my trades. So I'm looking at $120 just to trade a single lot/contract. But- when right (as I was fortunate enough to be this week), that money comes back in a hurry. More than paid for my vacation this next week....and I didn't even plan for it.

Haven't gotten into futures yet....have been talking with Maxdoom a bit about it, but I'd rather eat the pip spread with a vehicle I know then blow a lot of money on a newbie mistake through futures. Have much to study, but I have no doubt I'll get comfortable with it.
  • #136,890
  • Sep 11, 2015 2:39pm Sep 11, 2015 2:39pm
you can trade the /QM - e-mini crude futures - but I think it's much less liquid....maintenance margin 1/2 that of /CL. Lots of action in /CL....good luck. I would trade it but they won't let me do it from my IRA
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,891
  • Sep 11, 2015 3:00pm Sep 11, 2015 3:00pm
Quoting The Fool
you can trade the /QM - e-mini crude futures - but I think it's much less liquid....maintenance margin 1/2 that of /CL. Lots of action in /CL....good luck. I would trade it but they won't let me do it from my IRA
You don't get to have any fun come to the dark side....

Why do you stick to IRA? Is it from your personal IRA or city?
  • #136,892
  • Sep 11, 2015 3:06pm Sep 11, 2015 3:06pm
I am trying to build up IRA accounts so I can get them large enough to trade from and live off of after I retire in 5-10 years. There are huge tax advantages - in Roth IRA's, for instance, you are taxed on the contributions, but any gains are tax free beyond that. It's hard to overstate what a sweet deal that is for the capable trader. I have non-IRA accounts that I trade but I mostly trade options in those, too.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,893
  • Sep 11, 2015 3:16pm Sep 11, 2015 3:16pm
Quoting The Fool
I am trying to build up IRA accounts so I can get them large enough to trade from and live off of after I retire in 5-10 years. There are huge tax advantages - in Roth IRA's, for instance, you are taxed on the contributions, but any gains are tax free beyond that. It's hard to overstate what a sweet deal that is for the capable trader. I have non-IRA accounts that I trade but I mostly trade options in those, too.
After retirement aren't you still taxed on capital gains on withdrawal if you continue to trade the IRA account?
  • #136,894
  • Sep 11, 2015 3:28pm Sep 11, 2015 3:28pm
Not on the Roth's - your contributions are off of your taxed income, so no further taxes are taken from those funds. $5,500/year max contribution and $6.500 after you are somewhere around 53, I think. I also have SEP-IRA's where I can make larger contributions - those are pre-tax contributions that help me lessen my tax burden. Important for me because I work a lot & make too much money. Later, after retirement, I will be taxed on withdrawals from the SEP-IRA's but the idea with IRA's in general is that your withdrawals will be made at a lesser tax rate down the road when you are retired, because you won't be working (as much). Check out the Roth's, a total no-brainer especially for younger people...worth starting even if you can only make fractional contributions.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,895
  • Sep 11, 2015 5:35pm Sep 11, 2015 5:35pm
Quoting The Fool
Not on the Roth's - your contributions are off of your taxed income, so no further taxes are taken from those funds. $5,500/year max contribution and $6.500 after you are somewhere around 53, I think. I also have SEP-IRA's where I can make larger contributions - those are pre-tax contributions that help me lessen my tax burden. Important for me because I work a lot & make too much money. Later, after retirement, I will be taxed on withdrawals from the SEP-IRA's but the idea with IRA's in general is that your withdrawals will be made at a lesser...
On it. I've looked into them before, and just decided I can trade better than someone else anyway. Didnt really put the thought into trading them myself. What all is available? Obviously options, equities...no forex and no futures?
  • #136,896
  • Sep 11, 2015 6:56pm Sep 11, 2015 6:56pm
anybody can open a Roth IRA, it's money you've already been taxed on, right - just look at all the "discount" brokerages - E*Trade, TDA, Schwab, etc, etc, open the account and start trading. You can trade options, equities, bonds, not futures & not options on futures. I have been told you can trade fx if it's at 1:1 margin - lol, how many people on FF would be trading at all if they had to trade 1:1? ( I should clarify a little about options for a beginning options trader, so ask me if that's something you are interested in.)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,897
  • Edited 7:17pm Sep 11, 2015 7:05pm | Edited 7:17pm
Quoting The Fool
anybody can open a Roth IRA, it's money you've already been taxed on, right - just look at all the "discount" brokerages - E*Trade, TDA, Schwab, etc, etc, open the account and start trading. You can trade options, equities, bonds, not futures & not options on futures. I have been told you can trade fx if it's at 1:1 margin - lol, how many people on FF would be trading at all if they had to trade 1:1? ( I should clarify a little about options for a beginning options trader, so ask me if that's something you are interested in.)


lolol @ fx if 1:1.

ill get the ball rolling
  • #136,898
  • Sep 11, 2015 11:41pm Sep 11, 2015 11:41pm
inspiration

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,899
  • Sep 12, 2015 1:29pm Sep 12, 2015 1:29pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} positioning for USD surge... In post NFP range, Euro left walking fine line at 1.1150. Inability to stay bellow puts either a small HH in view - 1.120x or a retest of 1.1260's. But 1.0340's are set in motion (..and I dont see it going much deeper bellow it..). Gold sits on a final frontier of its own - 1120 (/1115). But this level was raided back and forth - loosing its meaning and probabilities for a bull continuation diminishing. Smaller bearish business for 1110 and 1090 should be finished before the big announcement...
Gold is doing its thing, Euro does too, just went higher and reached levels, which point even lower in the big picture (0.89xx).. 1.1340's is ideal for long term short entries, just that close at the highs makes it look to goo to be true - could spike around before really reversing. Gaping down and falling some 200 pips within next three days would be a clear sign of whats coming.
69
  • #136,900
  • Sep 13, 2015 3:56pm Sep 13, 2015 3:56pm
Quoting The Fool
anybody can open a Roth IRA, it's money you've already been taxed on, right - just look at all the "discount" brokerages - E*Trade, TDA, Schwab, etc, etc, open the account and start trading. You can trade options, equities, bonds, not futures & not options on futures. I have been told you can trade fx if it's at 1:1 margin - lol, how many people on FF would be trading at all if they had to trade 1:1? ( I should clarify a little about options for a beginning options trader, so ask me if that's something you are interested in.)
Are you sure? I'm not seeing anything prohibiting it, as long as it isnt leveraged or on margin everything seems fair game...

I'm approved both options and futures on the account

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answ...s-roth-ira.asp

If one can trade gold/silver why not oil?
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