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  • #136,861
  • Sep 10, 2015 1:29pm Sep 10, 2015 1:29pm
launched a short on oil 46
  • #136,862
  • Sep 10, 2015 7:02pm Sep 10, 2015 7:02pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and clearing 1.128x target. Plenty of opps to jump on board on the expected ride but the easy part and potential cheap ticket of the move is gone. We are officially entering in turbulent waters until the rates decision next week. Nothing to see in the Euro till then. All eyes on Oil today for the energies close. $45.8x opens a very yummy and tradable fast test $49.9x for the final rally of the year.... sisse
You say this assuming rate liftoff this year - correct?
  • #136,863
  • Sep 11, 2015 2:45am Sep 11, 2015 2:45am
Good to see you're back Sisse! I hope you enjoyed your vacation.
  • #136,864
  • Sep 11, 2015 3:25am Sep 11, 2015 3:25am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and clearing 1.128x target. Plenty of opps to jump on board on the expected ride but the easy part and potential cheap ticket of the move is gone. We are officially entering in turbulent waters until the rates decision next week. Nothing to see in the Euro till then. All eyes on Oil today for the energies close. $45.8x opens a very yummy and tradable fast test $49.9x for the final rally of the year.... sisse
Sisse, question bro, read this somewhere,

quote"Meanwhile the largest of the Brazilian
banks cut their GDP estimates for 2015 to -2.8% from -2.3% and -1.2% from -1.0%. Oh and they
raised their CPI estimates to 6.5%! Negative growth, lots of inflation, tax hikes and spending
cuts! Could it get any worse?"

So, GDP down means government earned less right, so if they earned less, they have less to spend right? Is that why they are hiking tax ? But where is the inflation coming from?

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #136,865
  • Sep 11, 2015 4:12am Sep 11, 2015 4:12am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Sisse, question bro, read this somewhere, quote"Meanwhile the largest of the Brazilian banks cut their GDP estimates for 2015 to -2.8% from -2.3% and -1.2% from -1.0%. Oh and they raised their CPI estimates to 6.5%! Negative growth, lots of inflation, tax hikes and spending cuts! Could it get any worse?" So, GDP down means government earned less right, so if they earned less, they have less to spend right? Is that why they are hiking tax ? But where is the inflation coming from? Rgds
Assume you have company which produce products to sell and you want to keep profit margin relative to production cost. What will you do?
  • #136,866
  • Sep 11, 2015 5:48am Sep 11, 2015 5:48am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You say this assuming rate liftoff this year - correct?
What if rate hike's next week

what will be the condition of E/u pair ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,867
  • Sep 11, 2015 6:03am Sep 11, 2015 6:03am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} What if rate hike's next week what will be the condition of E/u pair ....
Most likely down
  • #136,868
  • Edited 6:28am Sep 11, 2015 6:12am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting ClinicalEx
A solid miss 200/190. Flow to 1.1215 with 1.131x unlocked with the break, tracking intraday ranges around these levels.
Quoting ClinicalEx
Signs of strength from equities early on as there's finally something tangible to cling to on that data front. 10150 to track the tradeable intraday retrace on DAX (as long as it doesn't go to 10380 in one go.) and same on the pair.

That did it, and 10150 played out on DAX but we're starting to lose the floor there. Anyway, as long as 9800 holds we're well supported there. (saved from a further sell-off I mean, not related to trading yet.)

We're still off the major levels to track for long term swing shorts on the pair. So beginning to align for proper technical plays for a hawkish FED anyway.

A hike with very careful forward guidance or a display of the very robust discourse in the FED with tons of diverging consensus we've become used to? The latter seems more probable for now and that's going to make our jobs harder.
  • #136,869
  • Sep 11, 2015 6:32am Sep 11, 2015 6:32am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Most likely down
What about commodity currencies? like AUD/USD?
  • #136,870
  • Sep 11, 2015 6:40am Sep 11, 2015 6:40am
Quoting Vorex
{quote} What about commodity currencies? like AUD/USD?
Everything vs USD is expected to move down, simply because of a dollar rally
  • #136,871
  • Sep 11, 2015 8:25am Sep 11, 2015 8:25am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Everything vs USD is expected to move down, simply because of a dollar rally
How many pips ....... ?
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,872
  • Sep 11, 2015 8:29am Sep 11, 2015 8:29am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} How many pips ....... ?
At least 1 pip

after that it's impossible to know. A lot of factors in play...if you aren't already in with a comfortable stop I wouldnt trade on FOMC day. Neither this one or December's

Potential numbers will be clearer the closer we get...

but a 300 pip FOMC candle isn't out of the question, judging by the other FOMC candles this year

I'm still holding short from 1.1606, and looking to long 1.0994
  • #136,873
  • Sep 11, 2015 12:16pm Sep 11, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You say this assuming rate liftoff this year - correct?
No. I am assuming overreaction on Chinese numbers, winter demand and expectation of cut Pcc on the supply side. Rates will help the cause but not the main mover for this.

On the major move. Mid term leg is pretty much cleared for an exhaustion leg below $30 ($26.xx handle) to form a long [and it will last for very long] term extended chop zone around $40 / $ 50 until we find a more sustainable equilibrium. Oil extreme short term unbalance between sply/demand are neither healthy or sustainable for the world economy for much long ...

Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Meanwhile the largest of the Brazilian banks cut their GDP estimates ....Could it get any worse?" .... But where is the inflation coming from? Rgds
The eternal story of Latin America... the "Brazil syndrome" and its nothing we haven't seen before. The same old story with Brazil every other decade it always end with a "soup" of contradictory fiscal and monetary policies until the next smart guy/gal come make some reforms and sell the dream to the world that this time "Brazil is for real"...rinse and repeat ....

On your question, basically is the chicken and egg dilemma: Budget cuts given the increasing fiscal deficit pressures while trying to push demand via public expending to offset the recessionary impact in the private economy....

Recession has have a huge toll in tax receipts while public expenditure has increased to offset the fall (including the never ending "printing money" ...) so economic contraction, inflation, more taxes--> political instability starting to knock the doors...the classic combo....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,874
  • Sep 11, 2015 12:22pm Sep 11, 2015 12:22pm
10-4
  • #136,875
  • Sep 11, 2015 12:51pm Sep 11, 2015 12:51pm
Hey sisse what your view on September rate hike ....
Still holding short @ 1.162xx
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,876
  • Sep 11, 2015 1:01pm Sep 11, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting Pharm0r
...if you aren't already in with a comfortable stop I wouldnt trade on FOMC day. Neither this one or December's
what? You really think JY would hike rates in December and kill Santa and ruin Xmas? (whoa, vuja de, I just remembered I wrote the same thing last year........or was it the year before that?) - and they can't do an October hike because there's no press conference and they need to be able to splain to the people that everything gonna be OK....so it's September or 2016....I would gird my loins (loin girder...lol) for next Thursday or go fishing instead.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,877
  • Sep 11, 2015 1:04pm Sep 11, 2015 1:04pm
That would be a great meme....JY killing santa
  • #136,878
  • Sep 11, 2015 1:04pm Sep 11, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting primejarvis
Hey sisse what your view on September rate hike ....
Same since last update few weeks ago. Nothing has changed.

--->Personally i think not hiking next week will be a big mistake for the FED.... Probably the window is already closed after the sell off in August.

---> On the actual facts. Numbers since the last FOMC, all ticked inline or slightly better in both employment and inflation (FED has nowhere to hide), only today consumer confidence missed expectation but the rest is solid round of numbers in the US the last 6 weeks. However, the massive selloff in equities across the board more than offset any openly hawkish sentiment for next week.

Basically, bastards preempted and outsmarted the rate move last month and now FED is deep problems. As per today closing week. +/- 5% chances for a proper hike sep /, +/- 25% for a symbolic hike and 40% for NO HIKE SEP but VERY HAWKISH FED next week.

In term of trading, FED chickening out will send bigger shockwaves than an actual hike ...lets see what the last few session brings to the table....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,879
  • Sep 11, 2015 1:12pm Sep 11, 2015 1:12pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Same since last update few weeks ago. Nothing has changed. --->Personally i think not hiking next week will be a big mistake for the FED.... Probably the window is already closed after the sell off in August. ---> On the actual facts. Numbers since the last FOMC, all ticked inline or slightly better in both employment and inflation (FED has nowhere to hide), only today consumer confidence missed expectation but the rest is solid round of numbers in the US the last 6 weeks. However, the massive selloff in equities across the board more...
Correct me if I am wrong ... If fed will not liftoff then I don't think the parity is going to happen ... I see a very big move on the south for the e/u pair .... Towards parity ... But as always was astonished with the last few sessions towards north ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,880
  • Sep 11, 2015 1:23pm Sep 11, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting sisse
Basically, bastards preempted and outsmarted the rate move last month and now FED is deep problems. As per today closing week. +/- 5% chances for a proper hike sep /, +/- 25% for a symbolic hike and 40% for NO HIKE SEP but VERY HAWKISH FED next week.
given despite what a bunch of weenies the Yellen FOMC are, I am still betting on a baby step hike Thursday, 10-15 bps, but even that may be enough to rock the markets. If they whiff next week, I'd bet everything off the table until 1/27/2016. They probably know through the Illuminati pipeline that $75+ oil is coming back in 2016, so they also know they are behind the curve perilously.....and they can't wait any longer...my better bets are on a sharp break lower for US indices by the end of next week, but I am playing the opposite reaction, as well. If nothing happens...well, I'm screwed.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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