Current situation in USD: 
Current situation in Points: 
Current situation in Points:
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I have to review my whole trading. It's unclear, no set of rules, but freestyle zone picking. Inconsistent placing of orders at good will. I need to learn so much more about market structure. I believe it will take years. This current state is not sustainable and must become better. The statistic is not satisfying and consequently the profitability isn't either. The entry points are rushed, the patience is insufficient, the market understanding is of little use, because it is unfounded on clarity.
I would like to say that you are doing very well for someone trading after work. I believe 20% return in two weeks is more than fantastic, and that you should feel proud of your performance. Pro Fund Managers do not even make this much in a year, let alone 2 weeks. IF you keep this up, you will have like 1000% a year
Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing your trades with us
- #88
- Edited 1:08pm Sep 8, 2015 12:41pm | Edited 1:08pm
{quote} I would like to say that you are doing very well for someone trading after work. I believe 20% return in two weeks is more than fantastic, and that you should feel proud of your performance. Pro Fund Managers do not even make this much in a year, let alone 2 weeks. IF you keep this up, you will have like 1000% a year
But: Realistically:
The realized P/L is USD 410.58. This is 8.21%, not 20%.
Further, the equity has dropped to ca. USD 800 which if now closed would be ca. 16%.
The RRR over 51 trades so far is 1:1.91, which is sort of OK, but not really. Further, the statistic is not correct, because, as one could see if the trading style was continued up to 500+ trades, the real RRR is way lower. The low average loser of 56.46 is due to adjustments of trade sizes after placing a trade (I traded a too big size), but these small USD 1-10 losses significantly alter the average loser. The average winning trade though is pretty correct with USD 108.05.
The win rate of 39.22(W) to 60.78(L) is kind of OK, if the RRR was higher (over a large enough sample size to avoid above mentioned statistical errors).
Yes a mere 7% per month are more than 100% per year, and yes Portfolio Managers of big funds wouls be happy to deliver 20% every year. BUT:
The comparison of a retail trader to a conventional fund (be it Mutual/Hedge/Equity/Bond/Money market Fund, etc.) is useless. A fund covers its expenses through a management fee from 0.25 (ETF) to 1.5% (Activeliy Managed Funds) up to even 2-3% for Hedge Funds. Further, Hedge Funds and other Funds have a Performance fee (15-20%), which is an incentive to perform well.
Consequently the Assets under management (AUM) are important a) to reach a critical mass so that transaction costs can be low, b) once a) is achieved: make money just from the Management fee, since the scalability is enormous with this business model. You do not need to multiply your staff times two, just because you have twice as much AUM.
Needless to say that with the current interest rate levels world wide, a shitty fund with a net performance of 2% per year (which could be gross 3%) is still attractive. A trader can pull 3% out of his a** with one trade of RRR 1:3.
So IF the Fund Managers where oh-so-good, then they would trade for themselves or would return significantly higher % and consequently would charge way more. In the 90s this was the case with some one of the caliber of Quantum Fund Manager George Soros. I forgot the name but his structure was: 5% Management fee, 50% performance fee. You can do that if you return 60-150% per year, which the fund did.
Bottom line: Excellent traders with a good understanding of the FX-Market have a profit factor of 4+ and a RRRof 1:4.5 or similar.
I am nowhere close to that. Nowhere.
I hope I could put a little bit into perspective what FX trading performance looks like.
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- #97
- Sep 10, 2015 11:28am Sep 10, 2015 11:28am
Yes, I think so. A break can be good. Go to the sea or the woods. Bring some wine. It usually gives perspective and clarity
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