AUD/USD

still w5

Only the US holding off the rate increase because of global market turmoil and an emerging market smackdown will save AUD. Still Long.

Do you know that global market turmoil means lesser manufacturing activities, which means lesser demand for raw materials?
Who produce the raw materials? I think its Australia.

Richmond Fed president Lacker just addressed this concern, although I am sure everyone on the panel may not agree. An excerpt from his report below and the full report here, it is a good read: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/...h_20150904.pdf

Should the Recent Financial Market Volatility Give Us Pause?

"No discussion of macroeconomic conditions at this moment would be complete without mention of recent financial market volatility. Developments in China appeared to have heightened uncertainty regarding future economic growth and macroeconomic policy there, which seems to have prompted higher financial market volatility in developed market economies. At times of market turbulence one must maintain a deep respect for the divergent ways in which events could conceivably unfold, and thus I will not pretend I can foretell the future. Nevertheless, it is worth observing that the direct implications of recent developments for economic fundamentals in the United States appear to be quite limited. If so, then recent market developments will have only limited implications for the appropriate path of monetary policy. This might seem to contradict widespread conjecture about the Fed delaying liftoff due to market turbulence. But I would point out that the Fed has a history of overreacting to financial market movements that seem unconnected to economic fundamentals. The events of 1998-99 are a case in point, when financial developments in emerging markets generated substantial U.S. market volatility despite limited identifiable implications for U.S. growth. The FOMC cut rates three times but ended up taking back those cuts the following year."

Should be an interesting week. Don't forget Kiwi commodity currency rate decision this week may have an impact on Aussie

Agreed, I don't think I've ever been happier to not be holding over the weekend

Will see how the AUD opens on Monday, employment data on Thursday should be interesting. However, given the aussie's movements on Thursday/Friday, I believe it is a lot more driven by the market perception of the FOMC's rate rise dates rather than any local data.

I have a sell stop order placed at .6906. Will my order execute at this price if the market opens with a gap below the current price eg. at .6895?
Also what do you guys think the gap will be upward or downward?

Looks about the same.
http://www.oanda.com/currency/live-exchange-rates/

Market is closed so what are these rates? Are these what the market is going to open at on Monday?

The BIG bet here is that the U.S. Fed will be unwilling to move at all now on recent developments in China and slower U.S. growth. Much easier to err on the side of caution than to raise and watch asset values collapse. Average of .6976 long. Looking to TP at .7150.

Hopefully a good trade for you.

I was just calling attention to the fact that at least one voice in the Fed feels that the recent turmoil in China may not have as big an impact as some might think. Personally, I agree with you, the Fed is in a quandary and they know it.

Be patient, preserve capital, and stick to your plan. The FED can do their thing and we can do our thing, BAG PIPS

Green pips to ya!

Feel free to start buying... We won't see this below 0.6750 this year...
It would rather be higher towards 0.75 IMO

AUD/USD wants to break higher.

I would see if this breaks the trendline to the upside.

Attachment

Bring on the bulls.

cant wait to add to the shorts

Yep that's what they all say and then when it goes the other way........

My bet is on bulls for a while, its had a nice drop. Lot of buying demand if you look at the monthly...soooooo tread carefully if you wanna sell...
It tried to crack the support but failed....once it cracks it then yeh sell all you want

I'm probably stating the obvious here, but the turn around is correlated to the US stock market going strong people pulling their money from FX into stocks. I always notice when us stock market is strong USD falls. Certainly nothing to do with good news in AU economy. Other ideas? Is this all just technical retraction?

There is alot of fundamental issues with Australia at the moment it would be very unwise to not take this into account. Sure we will always see some re-bounds from oversold areas. But the trend is down.

Unemployment figures on thursday. We shall see!