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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,841
  • Sep 3, 2015 7:33pm Sep 3, 2015 7:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} NFP is gonna beat - >235k, and markets will fall back into "good news is bad news cuz now omg here comes the rate hike"....../ES will post a -50 pt day on Friday & the following week we will be back in panic mode with a retrace to <1850. ^VIX will retest recent highs & surpass. Mortification all the way up to FOMC day and then.....what? They cave & can kick & equity markets rally into October, all the way back to /ES >2050. Well, at least that's what I'm best set up for. In reality I'd give a Sept liftoff about a 50:50 chance & I still would...
expecting a wet and wild NFP this time around or being sarcastic?
  • #136,842
  • Sep 4, 2015 2:16am Sep 4, 2015 2:16am
Quoting Pharm0r
or being sarcastic?
who, me? as I said, I expect a big beat. Bots are gonna sell everything before they roll off to their bot mansions for a long weekend in the Hamptons.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,843
  • Sep 4, 2015 2:26am Sep 4, 2015 2:26am
omg, I just heard it on the radio: there's a Death Cross on the DAX! Is that bad? It sounds pretty bad. And then, this:
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,844
  • Sep 4, 2015 2:45am Sep 4, 2015 2:45am
Sounds scary! Could be about the fact that they are against further delay thus confirming rate hike in september, but it could also be a speech about some kind of "case scenario" that's very negative, comparing that to (against) "further delay" and explaining why the latter is the better option: delay to dec or even further. Hence "The case" against "further delay". Everything is chosen so that it could be interpreted multiple ways.

Sisse explained in detail why a delay would not be a good idea, but I'm sure they can come up with good reasons as well.
  • #136,845
  • Sep 4, 2015 3:01am Sep 4, 2015 3:01am
Quoting ExForX
Sounds scary! Could be about the fact that they are against further delay thus confirming rate hike in september, but it could also be a speech about some kind of "case scenario" that's very negative, comparing that to (against) "further delay" and explaining why the latter is the better option: delay to dec or even further. Hence "The case" against "further delay". Everything is chosen so that it could be interpreted multiple ways. Sisse explained in detail why a delay would not be a good idea, but I'm sure they can come up with good reasons...
I read a great view from Bill Gross too that made me think of Sisse's excellent posts on getting back to normal; it doesn't even touch on the benefits of acquiring policy tools/options where you have very little at zero bound. I love this quote:

"The Fed is beginning to recognize that 6 years of zero bound interest rates have negative influences on the real economy – it destroys historical business models essential to capitalism such as pension funds, insurance companies, and the willingness to save money itself."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0R217G20150902
  • #136,846
  • Sep 4, 2015 6:28am Sep 4, 2015 6:28am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} who, me? as I said, I expect a big beat. Bots are gonna sell everything before they roll off to their bot mansions for a long weekend in the Hamptons.
  • #136,847
  • Sep 4, 2015 6:42am Sep 4, 2015 6:42am
My view on NFP then. Going to track treasuries closely for the initial reaction whatever the case. A break of 2.20 yield levels for the day and week with NFP opens up dollar strength pricing in the imminent hike. While a move and close below below the 2.12 lows exposes the more probable December outlook.

All eyes on the Dollar. 96.60 (DXY.) is the active level so fade for weakness, break for strength. Support at 95.9X and strong support at 95.50 for the sell the highs on the pair.

Initial reactions on the print in my case.

A par print +-215: A test of 1.1095 and range with 1.131x at the extreme and 1.1215 in between with eyes on selling the highs. Lengthy play to track fading the extremes of the potential range.

A solid beat 230/240. Eyes on the breakdown 1.1095->1.101x to retrace the entire bullish leg. All eyes on 96.60 on DXY, where the daily/weekly break unlocks dollar strength opening 97 then 97.50. Moderate move.

A solid miss 200/190. Flow to 1.1215 with 1.131x unlocked with the break, tracking intraday ranges around these levels. Moderate move.

A strong beat 250+. Quick break 1.1095/96.60 with 97 then 97.50 unlocked smoothly and 1.101x with the 1.097 overshoot on the pair. Rapid, tough to play.

A strong miss 170-. Opens up 1.138 test via 1.1215 then 1.131x. Test of powerful dollar support 95.50. Rapid, tough to play and large range so played between interim levels 121/131.

1.1141 looks like the mean from which we move in whichever direction pre-NFP.
  • #136,848
  • Sep 4, 2015 8:36am Sep 4, 2015 8:36am
Quoting ClinicalEx
My view on NFP then. Going to track treasuries closely for the initial reaction whatever the case. A break of 2.20 yield levels for the day and week with NFP opens up dollar strength pricing in the imminent hike. While a move and close below below the 2.12 lows exposes the more probable December outlook. All eyes on the Dollar. 96.60 (DXY.) is the active level so fade for weakness, break for strength. Support at 95.9X and strong support at 95.50 for the sell the highs on the pair. Initial reactions on the print in my case. A par print +-215: A test...

Good call. With the +30K revision to July, puts this at your par print. I guess didn't go higher b/c of strong wage growth. I'm looking at 1.1040 for this move & potential follow thru next week when the rest of the market realizes Fed just waiting on an inflation tick.

By the way, this morning I am starting to conclude that the correlation of bullish EU to risk off is ending/has ended for now. Equities were down in Asia & Europe today/last night & little change in EU. Bonds seem to be the stronger correlation today.

My base case is now Sept rate rise with lots of talk about how small .25% is and how slow they will go & how strong the US economy is, etc. i.e. 'markets please don't break, love, the Fed'
defense wins championships
  • #136,849
  • Edited 9:11am Sep 4, 2015 8:38am | Edited 9:11am
Well a bit of a mixed bag there... Dropping rate of overall unemployment 5.1% coupled with a big miss at 173.. ( just adding the participation from the labor force was only 62% so not quite as good as it seems....)
DX sept looking strange with OI falling off and commercial unwinding net shorts.. and lge spec... pulling back on longs... indecision maybe setting up for some more side ways chop... Push down into support around 11050 before a new retest of 11320..
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  • #136,850
  • Sep 4, 2015 9:08am Sep 4, 2015 9:08am
Quoting seemoore
{quote} Good call. With the +30K revision to July, puts this at your par print. I guess didn't go higher b/c of strong wage growth. I'm looking at 1.1040 for this move & potential follow thru next week when the rest of the market realizes Fed just waiting on an inflation tick. By the way, this morning I am starting to conclude that the correlation of bullish EU to risk off is ending/has ended for now. Equities were down in Asia & Europe today/last night & little change in EU. Bonds seem to be the stronger correlation today. My base case is now Sept...
Thanks. Yes, consistent labor market strength reflected with the further unemployment drop too.

Yes, I see what you mean about correlation shifting (regarding Euro equities/euro.) as treasury yields carry the dollar the last couple of hours. (wasn't really tracking earlier.) The bund/treasury divergence carrying the pair in this case it seems.

Also agree re the FED about the emphasis shifting to just evaluating conditions with initial liftoff while understating the certainty of imminent hikes following.
  • #136,851
  • Sep 4, 2015 5:34pm Sep 4, 2015 5:34pm
...couldn't post before NFP but a quick update here....FED has nowhere to hide since June. Every single FED number link and excuse has being replied with solid numbers in every front ...there is consensus among economist, analyst, major players and reports on a urgent need for even a symbolic hike sep ...however, FED has become a messy collage of soft comments in all directions every second day and markets already charged a toll for the lack of north in the latest sell offs...

After today inline (with rev)/solid NFP which is the latest big report before the FED meeting i keep my Neutral outlook mid term in dollar (euro) until further data [decision from the FED as the rest is all confirmed) . However, NFP triggered a technical short term swing buy alert in the Euro for the FED fading the current lows (1.080x / 1.112x ...) --> 1.147x with soft intermediate stops @ 1.128x and strong 1.136x with max extension to 1.184x (all with no hikes )....

....lots of action expected in the next few weeks...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,852
  • Sep 5, 2015 4:11am Sep 5, 2015 4:11am
Quoting sisse
...However, NFP triggered a technical short term swing buy alert in the Euro for the FED fading the current lows (1.080x / 1.112x ...) --> 1.147x with soft intermediate stops @ 1.128x and strong 1.136x with max extension to 1.184x (all with no hikes ).... ....lots of action expected in the next few weeks... sisse
Situation reminds me of that September when pundits trumpeted on tapering (QE3), but the FED "unexpectedly" didnt... (2013/09/18) Technically Euro was ready to fly and it did.. Now one can feel almost forceful "no hike" theme in the media, but for all that matters, they just DON'T KNOW. But market already giving its clues - the positioning for USD surge...
In post NFP range, Euro left walking fine line at 1.1150. Inability to stay bellow puts either a small HH in view - 1.120x or a retest of 1.1260's. But 1.0340's are set in motion (..and I dont see it going much deeper bellow it..).
Gold sits on a final frontier of its own - 1120 (/1115). But this level was raided back and forth - loosing its meaning and probabilities for a bull continuation diminishing. Smaller bearish business for 1110 and 1090 should be finished before the big announcement. Big picture points to 800 mark. Sisse, your take on a global perspective when/if gold lurks in 800/900 area for some time? I cant help but think about miners stocks prices, with producing costs reportedly in a 1200/900 range and fat bastards buying them out, once the right time comes..
69
  • #136,853
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:38am Sep 8, 2015 2:38am
To wrap up my view after slow going before this mornings volatility.

All numbers roughly in line with the revision factoring in the the positive earnings data and unemployment decrease.

Quoting ClinicalEx
96.60 (DXY.) is the active level so fade for weakness, break for strength. Support at 95.9X and strong support at 95.50 for the sell the highs on the pair. Initial reactions on the print in my case.



A par print +-215: A test of 1.1095 and range with 1.131x at the extreme and 1.1215 in between with eyes on selling the highs. Lengthy play to track fading the extremes of the potential range.
A solid miss 200/190. Flow to 1.1215 with 1.131x unlocked with the break, tracking intraday ranges around these levels. Moderate...

Some relief from China with the strong trade balance print even before devaluation can properly take hold there. Signs of strength from equities early on as there's finally something tangible to cling to on that data front. 10150 to track the tradeable intraday retrace on DAX (as long as it doesn't go to 10380 in one go.) and same on the pair.
  • #136,854
  • Sep 8, 2015 3:55am Sep 8, 2015 3:55am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Signs of strength from equities early on
Any updraft for equities a gift for a short trade entry with the coming nosedive after the terrifying 10-25 bps funds rate hike just 7 trading days away.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,855
  • Sep 9, 2015 6:33am Sep 9, 2015 6:33am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} expecting a wet and wild NFP this time around or being sarcastic?
hey pharmor h r u .... do you know where is sisse and hathor ... missing their posts ....

this thread is getting way to down .... no interesting posts nothing ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,856
  • Sep 9, 2015 6:51am Sep 9, 2015 6:51am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} hey pharmor h r u .... do you know where is sisse and hathor ... missing their posts .... this thread is getting way to down .... no interesting posts nothing ....
If I recall, Sisse is on vacation- he'll be back.

Don't know about Hathor.

You can rest assured that Sisse and Hathor both will most likely be back for the FOMC next week
  • #136,857
  • Sep 9, 2015 7:02am Sep 9, 2015 7:02am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} If I recall, Sisse is on vacation- he'll be back. Don't know about Hathor. You can rest assured that Sisse and Hathor both will most likely be back for the FOMC next week
I was expecting this answer from you ..... anyways whats your plan for E/u ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,858
  • Sep 9, 2015 7:43am Sep 9, 2015 7:43am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} I was expecting this answer from you ..... anyways whats your plan for E/u ....
Only swing trades I have lined up at the moment are 1.0994-1.1050 Longs for 1.2xxx, or Short 1.1450ish for 1.09xx or lower

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} little bird told me 1.1580 is a place to look....not to be confused with parrot...bird is the opposite of parrot Dont really have anything definitive until the 1.09xx posted and the normal fibs we've created on this last daily swing down. Really wanna see that bull norm before FOMC, wouldnt be surprised if we are smack dab in that norm zone for FOMC for a good fu both ways
Still applies, norm = 0994-1050
  • #136,859
  • Sep 10, 2015 1:06pm Sep 10, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting sisse
......NFP triggered a technical short term swing buy alert in the Euro for the FED fading the current lows (1.080x / 1.112x ...) [check] --> 1.147x with soft intermediate stops @ 1.128x [check] and strong 1.136x [in play] with max extension to 1.184x (all with no hikes )....
...and clearing 1.128x target. Plenty of opps to jump on board on the expected ride but the easy part and potential cheap ticket of the move is gone. We are officially entering in turbulent waters until the rates decision next week. Nothing to see in the Euro till then.

All eyes on Oil today for the energies close. $45.8x opens a very yummy and tradable fast test $49.9x for the final rally of the year....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,860
  • Sep 10, 2015 1:21pm Sep 10, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and clearing 1.128x target. Plenty of opps to jump on board on the expected ride but the easy part and potential cheap ticket of the move is gone. We are officially entering in turbulent waters until the rates decision next week. Nothing to see in the Euro till then. All eyes on Oil today for the energies close. $45.8x opens a very yummy and tradable fast test $49.9x for the final rally of the year.... sisse
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