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  • #10,501
  • Sep 2, 2015 1:23pm Sep 2, 2015 1:23pm
another day like today for SPY and I will be within a nickel of b/e on vexing Sept $191/$188 bull put verts - and I will get out, don't want to hold them thru the NFP
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,502
  • Sep 2, 2015 1:29pm Sep 2, 2015 1:29pm
I feel good....about seeing elevated vol and big moves....fuck the old weakshit range & bring the noise
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,503
  • Edited 4:14pm Sep 2, 2015 3:59pm | Edited 4:14pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Beginning to think that this 1995 is the lower high, but if I go short call vert on a bounce, I'll steer a bit wide of that for a bit ... . Too many times these BTFD'ers have other ideas on their minds ... .
it's gonna be hard to pick safe limits, the channel has been smashed and all that pent up uncertainty is free to swing wild now. I could see....

- more heavy shtf out of China drags equities down
- China gets better & the FOMC hikes in 2 weeks and that drags em down
- The Fed whiffs in Sept and we get an Oct rally all the way back to the Summer highs
- oil a wild card but looks doomed to keep dropping. That drags on equities but scares the Fed heads.
- Everything is already priced in but nobody knows wtf will happen

I still think risk is to the downside but I don't know where I'd want to put a SPY short call. So, I am playing wide diagonals, VXX & maybe UVXY....in SPY I am looking at cheap debit spreads (diagonals and/or calendars) timed for a big move after the Sept FOMC....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,504
  • Sep 2, 2015 6:36pm Sep 2, 2015 6:36pm
I've been kind of just "embracing the squirrel" here, accepting the fact that no profitable strike is particularly safe ... . But vol + whipsaw = $$ to both sides.

Interesting article on VXX/XIV at http://garthfriesen.tumblr.com/ (entitled "Trading Volatility ETF's: Respect the Roll"). Perpetually rolling doesn't necesarily make sense to me, but what I found interesting was how long this present stint of volatility might last ... . Maybe months ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,505
  • Sep 2, 2015 6:46pm Sep 2, 2015 6:46pm
... and thank goodness for this: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chi...teid=rss&rss=1

Tired of being the tail wagged by Chinese market shenanigans ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,506
  • Sep 2, 2015 7:18pm Sep 2, 2015 7:18pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I've been kind of just "embracing the squirrel" here, accepting the fact that no profitable strike is particularly safe ... . But vol + whipsaw = $$ to both sides.
I saw a squirrel jump on a little kid's head in the park in Portland one time, tried to chew his ear off. The conundrum with credit spreads is that they're only easy to trade in persistent range-bound pa (remember the channel?) - but iv is dead in that pa, so you are tempted to tighten your spreads - risky. When iv is elevated, condors are rich but more dangerous in the spastic pa. So...in this high iv I look at putting risk b/e's way out on the end of diagonal spreads. The problem with this is I have to hold to near the expiry of the short leg to get the most out of the diagonal.

I am still playing about $20/week on the State lotto......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,507
  • Sep 3, 2015 7:54am Sep 3, 2015 7:54am
Quoting The Fool
another day like today for SPY and I will be within a nickel of b/e on vexing Sept $191/$188 bull put verts - and I will get out, don't want to hold them thru the NFP
in for $0.60, out for $0.57....always good to get out of a dumb trade, even if goes on to make full profit, water under the bridge now, good to have the margin back
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,508
  • Sep 3, 2015 9:30am Sep 3, 2015 9:30am
Quoting The Fool
....always good to get out of a dumb trade, even if goes on to make full profit, water under the bridge now...
I agree.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,509
  • Sep 3, 2015 9:34am Sep 3, 2015 9:34am
Quoting The Fool
I could see....
- more heavy shtf out of China drags equities down
- China gets better & the FOMC hikes in 2 weeks and that drags em down
- The Fed whiffs in Sept and we get an Oct rally all the way back to the Summer highs
- oil a wild card but looks doomed to keep dropping. That drags on equities but scares the Fed heads.
- Everything is already priced in but nobody knows wtf will happen ....
Yes, so many probabilities.

I am on the sidelines, since obviously I have no clue where are we going... maybe just more whipsaw moves. To the upside we have clear levels of resistance around 2040 on SPX.
1) bottom of the multi month range
2) lower line of a long up-channel, dating from Nov 2012, and
3) a big juicy gap to fill right beneath the 1) and 2).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-daily.PNG Size: 190 KB


To the downside, obvious level would be Oct 2014 low... ~1820 on SPX.

And there are more levels all the way to the BIG MUMMA SUPPORT field of 1550-1575, where we are gonna sell everything we got and just buy some stocks (preferably biotech and tech and just sit tight)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,510
  • Edited 4:12pm Sep 3, 2015 10:13am | Edited 4:12pm
Quoting StrayDog
I am on the sidelines, since obviously I have no clue where are we going... maybe just more whipsaw moves.
Sidelines not a bad place to be. Looks like I picked a good spot to bail out of Sept SPY $191 short spreads - just lost a little change on the comms, nbd. I have been looking to fish a VIX spike off the NFP tomorrow, trying to get into cheap debit spreads on UVXY (lol) and VXX - no fills. Shoulda done those same time I took off the SPY verts.

I have started setting up trades late night instead of early morning. I can catch the London open, set up trades if I see them, then wake up to catch NY open, adjust/cancel orders before the bell. Works out better. West coast time zone sucks for trading intraday.....west coast Portugal would be better.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,511
  • Sep 3, 2015 12:12pm Sep 3, 2015 12:12pm
Quoting The Fool
... West coast time zone sucks for trading intraday.....west coast Portugal would be better.
I hear you my friend... I have very good time zone (CET -> Central European Timezone, now CEST meaning Summer Time), and that is about only benefit for me in my country . NY Session is 15:30 - 22:00 my time.
So, if you are a fanatic, with European time zone, you can cover both European and US Session. DAX opens @ 8:00, NY close @ 22:00...
Build your accounts and move to Europe... Plenty of cheap properties in Greece for example... Spain also, hombre.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,512
  • Sep 3, 2015 12:18pm Sep 3, 2015 12:18pm
Quoting StrayDog
Build your accounts and move to Europe... Plenty of cheap properties in Greece for example... Spain also, hombre.
I'm coming. I need to catch the next VIX spike first, though...

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/09/vix-hedges-volatility/

“The VIX is its own animal,” ........
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,513
  • Sep 3, 2015 2:54pm Sep 3, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yes, so many probabilities. I am on the sidelines, since obviously I have no clue where are we going... maybe just more whipsaw moves. To the upside we have clear levels of resistance around 2040 on SPX. 1) bottom of the multi month range 2) lower line of a long up-channel, dating from Nov 2012, and 3) a big juicy gap to fill right beneath the 1) and 2). {image} To the downside, obvious level would be Oct 2014 low... ~1820 on SPX. And there are more levels all the way to the BIG MUMMA SUPPORT field of 1550-1575, where we are gonna sell everything...
Good time to be on the sidelines, actually, with China down for celebrations, US winding into the long labor day holiday ... . Could be a lot of pent up stuff come Tuesday ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,514
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:23pm Sep 3, 2015 3:23pm
I tried to get in cheap VXX or UVXY debit spreads for Sept1 or Sept2 today - no dice. Tomorrow I may try to get in new trades if there is a big obvious result off the NFP.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,515
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:23pm Sep 3, 2015 3:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I saw a squirrel jump on a little kid's head in the park in Portland one time, tried to chew his ear off. The conundrum with credit spreads is that they're only easy to trade in persistent range-bound pa (remember the channel?) - but iv is dead in that pa, so you are tempted to tighten your spreads - risky. When iv is elevated, condors are rich but more dangerous in the spastic pa. So...in this high iv I look at putting risk b/e's way out on the end of diagonal spreads. The problem with this is I have to hold to near the expiry of the short...
You're absolutely right with the IC's ... . I just put them on as close to a 70% POP as I can and hope for the best ... . Except for levels that stick out and poke you in the eye like 204 and 182, it's a total crap shoot ... (I hate to say it, but current conditions are more favorable to the Soz's telling Tony to "not show him the f'in chart"), since it's not going to help a whole lot except for those major levels ... . Something's going to breach at some point; just gotta roll with it ... .

It may be time to start devoting a little more attention to stuff that has usable levels in it (already in FXE (short/short call verts) and UNG (long debit spread); those are kinda no brainer plays, although my timing in FXE may turn out to not be so hot if there is Fed can-kicking ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,516
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:26pm Sep 3, 2015 3:26pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I hear you my friend... I have very good time zone (CET -> Central European Timezone, now CEST meaning Summer Time), and that is about only benefit for me in my country . NY Session is 15:30 - 22:00 my time. So, if you are a fanatic, with European time zone, you can cover both European and US Session. DAX opens @ 8:00, NY close @ 22:00... Build your accounts and move to Europe... Plenty of cheap properties in Greece for example... Spain also, hombre.
I may need to rethink the location of my retirement ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,517
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:39pm Sep 3, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I may need to rethink the location of my retirement ... .
AaronWard has a spec house in Pinellas County (FL) he'd love to sell you.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,518
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:55pm Sep 3, 2015 3:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} AaronWard has a spec house in Pinellas County (FL) he'd love to sell you.
Perfect place to dock the boat (my alternative retirement scenario) ... . Now, where can I stow my wife .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,519
  • Sep 3, 2015 7:09pm Sep 3, 2015 7:09pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
and UNG (long debit spread); those are kinda no brainer plays
idk, man. Coming into heavy hurricane season, Godzilla El Ninyo, you'd think we could see a spike...but the fundamentals are still there, there's a huge glut of natgas....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-09-03_ung.png Size: 56 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,520
  • Sep 3, 2015 7:12pm Sep 3, 2015 7:12pm
how bout a 1c debit on a $1 spread?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-09-03_ung2.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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