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  • #136,821
  • Sep 3, 2015 12:59am Sep 3, 2015 12:59am
no, I just meant here in FF. Maybe the language thing, I dunno, I just wondered....couldn't think of one Frenchman in here.

Yep, I expect a rare bit of flat water b4 the NFP Friday, helps to have the Chinese all on vacay. We've had so much vol in the US equity markets - it's like that tight range stored up months of energy and now has been released, unleashing wild swings, no telling where the next one might be......or things settle down. I doubt the latter, but I have my doubts about a Sept liftoff. Anyway, I am loving the volatility, what options traders crave, won't complain if it sticks around, & seems the stage is set for that to be.

A big beat or miss for the NFP will fester over the long weekend...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,822
  • Sep 3, 2015 1:51am Sep 3, 2015 1:51am
Quoting The Fool
no, I just meant here in FF. Maybe the language thing, I dunno, I just wondered....couldn't think of one Frenchman in here. Yep, I expect a rare bit of flat water b4 the NFP Friday, helps to have the Chinese all on vacay. We've had so much vol in the US equity markets - it's like that tight range stored up months of energy and now has been released, unleashing wild swings, no telling where the next one might be......or things settle down. I doubt the latter, but I have my doubts about a Sept liftoff. Anyway, I am loving the volatility, what options...
Type "oui" in the search (no kidding). Still some Frenchies nevertheless. (you can easily distinguish the google translators from the real deal) But you're right not very much.
  • #136,823
  • Edited 2:26am Sep 3, 2015 1:52am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting The Fool
no, I just meant here in FF. Maybe the language thing, I dunno, I just wondered....couldn't think of one Frenchman in here. Yep, I expect a rare bit of flat water b4 the NFP Friday, helps to have the Chinese all on vacay. We've had so much vol in the US equity markets - it's like that tight range stored up months of energy and now has been released, unleashing wild swings, no telling where the next one might be......or things settle down. I doubt the latter, but I have my doubts about a Sept liftoff. Anyway, I am loving the volatility, what options...
Not much to see in equities really. I mean NFP is important like usual but rates wise we pretty much completed the first hike leg despite the FED decision. Basically hike sep, retest of last week lows / no hike, complete the pullback in a organize and slow fashion until Dec. Map is already drawn in equities. NFP will just gauge momentum intraday (expecting slightly lower than forecast).

The more yummy moves will come from dollar that was on the back sit on the last massive moves and is the only one that left room for a no hike play. Lots of Q flows will run from dollar to equities with no hike sep confirmed and NFP can be the catalyst short term for dollar to take control.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,824
  • Sep 3, 2015 2:40am Sep 3, 2015 2:40am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not much to see in equities really. I mean NFP is important like usual but rates wise we pretty much completed the first hike leg despite the FED decision. Basically hike sep, retest of last week lows / no hike, complete the pullback in a organize and slow fashion until Dec.
prolly what I least expect is what will happen - that is, the Fed kicks the can and the bastards make another run for all time highs before the December FOMC. Anyway, the range has been blown wide open, making things much more interesting.

short oil seems like an obvious trade for the season, everything lining up that way, I just don't have a good way to trade it...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,825
  • Sep 3, 2015 2:55am Sep 3, 2015 2:55am
Looks like anticipation for something good from ECB carrying European stocks early. Maybe a reminder that QE is still well in play despite the counter-side being brutal support for the Euro in the fear environment over the last few weeks.

However, the pair isn't well aligned technically for the dovish comments. (1.1215 still hanging on btw and even below.) and I'm dislocated from my favored plays (sell the highs.) so nothing much to say in my case. Wait and see.
  • #136,826
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:00am Sep 3, 2015 3:00am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not much to see in equities really. I mean NFP is important like usual but rates wise we pretty much completed the first hike leg despite the FED decision. Basically hike sep, retest of last week lows / no hike, complete the pullback in a organize and slow fashion until Dec. Map is already drawn in equities. NFP will just gauge momentum intraday (expecting slightly lower than forecast). The more yummy moves will come from dollar that was on the back sit on the last massive moves and is the only one that left room for a no hike play....
Hello Sisse, from more theoretical view. Do you have any clue what could be the FED´s strategy? They have kept saying that the rate hike path will be transparent and well communicated to the markets since the growth is so fragile and due to the international problems. And now we are just about 2 weeks away from the potentinal hike moment and it seems to me that no-one has any clue what is gonna happen. Some still see it in 14 days others in Q1 2016. Since I have never traded in these times, i.e. times of tightening monetary policy (of any developed country) therefore it all seems to me that the whole market situation is pretty unpredictable. So do you see this situation as a normal/right/usuall way how to conduct monetary policy (i.e. FED leaves the markets without knowing the exact hike moment as the shock is part of the whole mechanism) or is the FED just as confused as everyone else, which creates an situation of uncertainty, which is a really non-intended and non-wanted from the perspective of the way the monetary policy should be done?
  • #136,827
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:30am Sep 3, 2015 3:30am
Quoting sisse
{quote} in general? or did you mean in these boards? ... There are plenty of them and they are as bastards as in anywhere else (don't you remember). If you meant in here, english boards and the language stigma/mumbojumbo is still a big non sense burden for a lot french people and applies far beyond trading discussion ...basically they usually hang out with themselves ... In any case, today we finally got much need first round of news of the new season,...
Similar picture here.. 1.1200/20 is the last meaningful area for bulls to try for 1.1390'x/1.141x (key area for HH or LL on M/W), but Aug 28'th dip revealed that not much of a buying interest were lying at the precise lines of R:R.. And tuesday's run and retracement afterwards also looks very much like positioning for LL's.
1.0340's getting more grip as the next big target (correction to 1.14 could fit well for this target).

Today 1.1240's is an intraday decision area for 1.1260/80 (especially 65/60), which on its own is a barricade withholding from 1.1320/s and 1.141x
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  • #136,828
  • Sep 3, 2015 4:19am Sep 3, 2015 4:19am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Looks like anticipation for something good from ECB carrying European stocks early. Maybe a reminder that QE is still well in play despite the counter-side being brutal support for the Euro in the fear environment over the last few weeks. However, the pair isn't well aligned technically for the dovish comments. (1.1215 still hanging on btw and even below.) and I'm dislocated from my favored plays (sell the highs.) so nothing much to say in my case. Wait and see.
Agreed we are sitting in middle ground, very difficult to call either way... The yields seem to be climbing in the 30 and 10 which would give a suggestion of Risk on scenario.. but with Oil making huge moves, and index's being shaken out... just sitting on hands until I get a signal... hopefully after the nfp..
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  • #136,829
  • Sep 3, 2015 5:14am Sep 3, 2015 5:14am
Quoting The Fool
Why are there no French fx traders? Maybe I just haven't noticed....but it seems there are plenty of Brits, Germans, Americans, Aussies, and good representation from many other countries ..... but no Frenchies. Why not?
kuroro001 and PipMeUp, off the top of my head. Can't guarantee they're both French though.
You reap what you sow.
  • #136,830
  • Sep 3, 2015 5:24am Sep 3, 2015 5:24am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} kuroro001 and PipMeUp, off the top of my head. Can't guarantee they're both French though.
You can do this if you want to find French traders
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  • #136,831
  • Sep 3, 2015 6:52am Sep 3, 2015 6:52am
...and here we go for the ECB...as latest conferences not expecting much from ECB since monetary policy seem very straight forward (unlike the collage of talking heads and conflicting ideas from the now FED soap opera ).

---> On the fundamental side Two main issues to track. Any hints of further QE and/or the dovish impact of the latest external shocks (oil especially and the correction in equities) in inflation targets will put at least a hard cap in bulls until the FED sep is resolved (an open QE extension, etc will send Euro to March levels in a few weeks!!!!).

Expecting an inline/mild conference here with positive hints in the EZ economic outlook.

---> On the technical side only a very dovish ECB (more QE?) will shake the board before NFP/FED rates unlocking a fast leg to 1.108x to sleep there until FED decide the rest of the Quarter. Any other scenario 1.128x is only level in play for a test of the highs non stop with extension with a mid term exhaustion leg 1.184x triggered by the FED.

---> For the actual flows. Inline/non event/slighlty positive outlook direct trade 1.122x -> 1.138x until NFP while a more dovish/more QE will unlock zigzag 1.128x -> 1.118x with max extension 1.108x for the NFP/FED combo ....

As expected for this week, choose your poison time... I already have mine .... GL all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,832
  • Sep 3, 2015 7:04am Sep 3, 2015 7:04am
Quoting sisse
...and here we go for the ECB...as latest conferences not expecting much from ECB since monetary policy seem very straight forward (unlike the collage of talking heads and conflicting ideas from the now FED soap opera ). ---> On the fundamental side Two main issues to track. Any hints of further QE and/or the dovish impact of the latest external shocks (oil especially and the correction in equities) in inflation targets will put at least a hard cap in bulls until the FED sep is resolved (an open QE extension, etc will send Euro to March levels in...
I choose my poison ... now how do I manage its circulation in blood vessels if I don't want it to reach my brain "1.133x"
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,833
  • Sep 3, 2015 7:37am Sep 3, 2015 7:37am
Quoting Schickeria
hold my shorts from 1.1328 for daily target 1.1174 missed my another pending sell entry @ 1.13322 by 0.00001 Pips (highest high was 1.13321 on my broker) {image} {image}
Take Profit @ 1.1174

+ 154 PIPS
  • #136,834
  • Sep 3, 2015 8:09am Sep 3, 2015 8:09am
Quoting The Fool
no, I just meant here in FF. Maybe the language thing, I dunno, I just wondered....couldn't think of one Frenchman in here. Yep, I expect a rare bit of flat water b4 the NFP Friday, helps to have the Chinese all on vacay. We've had so much vol in the US equity markets - it's like that tight range stored up months of energy and now has been released, unleashing wild swings, no telling where the next one might be......or things settle down. I doubt the latter, but I have my doubts about a Sept liftoff. Anyway, I am loving the volatility, what options...
kuroro is french

holding my last 1.1606 for the gold. Need to reload
  • #136,835
  • Sep 3, 2015 8:12am Sep 3, 2015 8:12am
Quoting sisse
...---> On the technical side only a very dovish ECB (more QE?) will shake the board before NFP/FED rates unlocking a fast leg to 1.108x [check]to sleep there until FED decide the rest of the Quarter

---> For the actual flows. ... while a more dovish/more QE will unlock zigzag 1.128x -> 1.118x [check] with max extension 1.108x [in play]for the NFP/FED combo ....
Inflation, (de)nflation, (de)nflation ... Slightly dovish ECB via inflation and we pretty much killed all the move in a fast leg leaving the crumbs for the NY opening range.

Nothing to do here in the euro ...very well done all bears from the highs....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,836
  • Sep 3, 2015 9:01am Sep 3, 2015 9:01am
Quoting buttons
{quote} Agreed we are sitting in middle ground, very difficult to call either way... The yields seem to be climbing in the 30 and 10 which would give a suggestion of Risk on scenario.. but with Oil making huge moves, and index's being shaken out... just sitting on hands until I get a signal... hopefully after the nfp.. {image}
Tsk, tsk. Any excuse to hit the buy button for the equity guys since the open this morning. I didn't find anything particularly dovish from the conference; I found it pretty neutral actually but of course we're still trying to unwind the crazy fear leg so any excuse will do.

The nastiness of the last couple of weeks can't be over-emphasized. I think you'd call that weekly candle a macro bull trap. Let's see if NFP brings the follow through or we stall out and retest the core/previous monthly highs.
  • #136,837
  • Edited 10:06am Sep 3, 2015 9:21am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Tsk, tsk. Any excuse to hit the buy button for the equity guys since the open this morning. I didn't find anything particularly dovish from the conference; I found it pretty neutral actually but of course we're still trying to unwind the crazy fear leg so any excuse will do. The nastiness of the last couple of weeks can't be over-emphasized. I think you'd call that weekly candle a macro bull trap. Let's see if NFP brings the follow through or we stall out and retest the core/previous monthly highs.
lol... as we are now in no mans land waiting patiently I might add.. for a sign!! I agree neutral to dovish (oops wrong word) on the conference with no hint of extension of QE.. We are selling off for a better position on the super reports in from today.. If there are going to be longs there may as well be more money in it... Just can't see the sep rate hikes considering everything... a judas swing maybe... to kill long stops... And I'm still not in a position... Last was short from the 28th which got hit by SL... yet here we are.. Technical daily has a s/r zone around 11150 which may yet retrace thru.. none of which helps.. unless you scalp..
  • #136,838
  • Sep 3, 2015 10:26am Sep 3, 2015 10:26am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Today 1.1240's is an intraday decision area for 1.1260/80 (especially 65/60), which on its own is a barricade withholding from 1.1320/s and 1.141x
Next notable level sits at 1.0940's..
M15:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_USD_15 Min.jpg Size: 255 KB
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  • #136,839
  • Sep 3, 2015 11:21am Sep 3, 2015 11:21am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Next notable level sits at 1.0940's.. M15: {image}
I wouldn't dismiss the 1.108x just yet ....

Quoting sisse
..---> For the actual flows. ... while a more dovish/more QE will unlock zigzag 1.128x -> 1.118x [check] with max extension 1.108x [check]for the NFP/FED combo ....
Move completed in the Euro in a very mediocre day here... tight chop zones expected across the board until NFP ... Nothing to see here until tomorrow.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,840
  • Sep 3, 2015 1:11pm Sep 3, 2015 1:11pm
Quoting sisse
tight chop zones expected across the board until NFP ... Nothing to see here until tomorrow. sisse
NFP is gonna beat - >235k, and markets will fall back into "good news is bad news cuz now omg here comes the rate hike"....../ES will post a -50 pt day on Friday & the following week we will be back in panic mode with a retrace to <1850. ^VIX will retest recent highs & surpass.

Mortification all the way up to FOMC day and then.....what? They cave & can kick & equity markets rally into October, all the way back to /ES >2050. Well, at least that's what I'm best set up for.

In reality I'd give a Sept liftoff about a 50:50 chance & I still would not be surprised to see a first baby step - a 10-15 bps hike, in 2 weeks....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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