ETMA_The Evolution

Here u go.
U can create the same charts on your MT4-5, just plot 2 Donchian channels with the settings 40 - 90.

Enjoy.

And here is Gold.

Thank you so much!!

U are welcome my Friend, anything u need.

Hi Bass, I had same long entries as you. Just curious, on your charts the donchian channels are short. How did you know to go long? Were you just taking the s and r bounce? Please let me know. Thank you, Sally

Dear C., Thank u for ur question, to understand why, u have to understand the system and the rules First.

This system is based on Double Donchian hence the 40 - 90 in the earlier post, one is a long term who indicate the overall trend and a shorter one that signal the entries and exits.
The power of this system is that you will never get caught on the wrong side of the market, once the short term D signals in or out these signals are automatically taken no questions asked but only in the direction of the Long term D.
Once the Long term D signal in or out, that signal is taken also automatically no questions asked, the probabilities of the signal is enhanced if at the same time a S/R is broken.
Simple rules, nothing messy or complicated, the higher the TF's u trade the smaller Donchian settings have to be backtested and set, after doing a zillion research and backtests on 2 highly rated backtester ( Not MT4-5) i found a high probability Donchian settings for every TF's that i trade and people who knows me know that i don't trade less than the h1.

After trading this system i came out with certain tactics and rules, and that will answer your question.

1 - I always look for a very high probability chart patterns before i take a signal, H&S, double bottom & top are my main focus.
2 - I never take a signal before a significant level (S/R), i wait for these levels to be broken and cleared on a closing basis before i jump in.
3 - I use the last trade is a loss rule to enter the market usually its a counter trend move ( This is the exception ).
4 - I never catch a falling knife and a flying rocket rule, i wait until that market stabilise before considering getting in, most of the time i get in after a retest.

After a long trend, markets tend to be exhausted and need a breather and tend to form a chart patterns indicating this exhausting usually on a strong support or resistance but not necessarily so, this is where you'll pay attention and exit a trend with a minimum money left on the table and wait for the Donchians C to signal a new entry.

Money management is the most important aspect of trading, your position sizing and stop loss orders should be set at your comfort level and an exit strategy should clearly be defined, i use a trailing stop with the smaller D like i said before unless a chart pattern revealed itself where the S/R levels will turn to be my exit targets.

Hope that this helps u understand the entries and exits part of my trading business plan, the goal is simplicity and efficiency, i tend to make things simple as possible but not simpler ( Einstein ).

Best,
B.R.

This is great! Thank you for taking the time to explain!! And you have an excellent method! Kuddos!

Best Market Structure Infographic You Will EVER See!

EUR: Sharks are circling... drawing courtesy Gabe C. Age 11.

August State of the Trend.

Payrolls Rose 173,000 in August as Jobless Rate Drops to 5.1%.

Now what ??!!!
Dollar Strengthens After August Jobs Report Backs Fed Rate Rise

Fed's Lacker Says It’s Time to End Era of Zero Interest Rates

Will the Fed raise rates in this month and send the Markets Haywire or not and send the Dollar down and the Euro up, yes, no, yes, no ...
Let the Debate begin.

Weekly Trading Forecast: Beware the Calm before the Storm

A critical two-week stretch for the US Dollar and broader financial markets promises big moves. Here are the key themes to watch.

US Dollar Forecast US Dollar Direction Depends on Two Critical Weeks Ahead

Another volatile week across global financial markets left the US Dollar trading near key highs versus the Australian Dollar and other commodity-linked currencies.

Euro Forecast - Euro Trades Choppy amid Falling Inflation and Central Bank Machinations

Outside of weak performances by EURJPY (-2.62%) and EURUSD (-0.32%), the Euro had quite a strong week during the latest period of high yield FX and emerging market FX liquidiation. EURAUD (+2.46%) andEURNZD (+3.38%) led the way higher as concerns over Chinese growth and central banks collective ability to keep markets in check continued to roil investor sentiment.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Canada Enters Recession: USDCAD Primed for Volatility

It was an interesting week for Canadian economic data: On Tuesday we received a messy GDP report that saw the country slip in to technical recession territory; marked by two consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar May Fall Further on Evolving Fed, RBA Policy Bets

The Australian Dollar suffered steep losses last week, tumbling to the weakest level in six years against its US counterpart.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - RBNZ to Provide Insight of External Forces on NZ Economy

The New Zealand Dollar has remained above its Black Monday low of 0.6198.

Gold Forecast Gold Heavy on Dollar Strength, NFPs-September Opening Range in Focus

Gold prices fell for the second consecutive week with the precious metal off by 1.3% to trade at 1118 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist , Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist , Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist , Tyler Yell, CMT, Forex Trading Instructor and James Stanley, Currency Analyst

The Trader Who Made $34 Million in 24 Little Hours


24 August 2015 is one of those dates that will go down in trading history along with 19 October 1987 and 24 October 1929, so much so that it earned its own moniker – Black Monday and hashtag #blackmonday. In just 24 hours, one trillion dollars was wiped from global exchanges in a vicious wave that began in China and ended in New York.

While thousands of professional traders stood transfixed, unsure which way to turn, one self-taught Japanese trader coolly made $34 million by shorting the Nikkei 225. Known as CIS, he told his story live in a blow-by-blow account to his 40,000 followers on Twitter. This week he sat down withBloomberg and revealed some of his method.

Back in Mid-August he starting shorting futures on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average with the expectation that it would drop. And when Black Monday came along on the 24th, drop it did indeed. By the close of the Asian session he’s amassed a profit of $13 million but instead of cashing out, he added to the position. His rationale was that when the US market opened New York would be in a panic, bringing down their markets which in turn would put further pressure on the Asian markets. That rationale saw him double his profit. But again, he didn’t walk away from the markets and took a punt that it had reached bottom and traded the rebound by going long. Again his prediction proved correct so that by Tuesday, when he finally closed out of the markets, he’d tripled his profit.
His final tweet says it all,
“That’s the end of my epic rebound trade”

An enigmatic man
Trading the rebound is not new to CIS, a 36 year old video game champion and gambler. 10 years ago he started Day Trading and made billions of yen from his bedroom and becoming a cult figure amongst Japanese Day Traders. With his swaggering comments and online bragging (showing statements for proof), this multimillionaire and father of three is actually highly protective of his identity.

How did he do it?
His winning trade began on 12 August when he noted an unusual move in the equity markets – a weakness in shares amongst the major indices. He began to short Nikkei futures building his stake to the tune of $240 million, quite a punt! He stood to make or lose millions for every 100 yen move in the index.
When the market flattened out for a few days, CIS stood aside patiently, until Friday 21 August when the Nikkei dropped. Then Black Monday came crashing in with the index losing the most in two years when it dropped more than 1,000 points. By Asian close his profit stood at $13 million. But instead of cashing out he tweeted: “I’m adding to my position. Then I’m going to go for a walk and prayer.”

Working on the logic that when the US opened there would be lot of fear, he sold another 200 contracts raising his risk to $275 million. With the Shanghai Composite Index losing 8.5% (it’s worse in 8 years), panic did in fact grip New York seeing major indices like the Dow losing 1,000 points – it’s biggest ever drop in a single day. And true to CIS’ expectation, the Nikkei slipped again that night.

Was it time for CIS to cash up? Instead de decided to take the cream off the rebound. Just as the bottom was about to be hit by the Nikkei he played the other side of the trade and began to buy. By 1:00am Tuesday in Tokyo, he’d amassed 970 contracts valued at $145 million in anticipation of the market rising.
At this point he went to bed and woke up to the Nikkei futures opening higher and beginning a slow recovery. Later that day he finally closed his trade, making millions of dollars in less than 24 hours.
As the song goes
“What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours”.

The secret to success?
One of the most well-known sayings in the trading world is ‘follow the trend’ and that is exactly what CIS says he does, “buy what’s being bought, sell what’s being sold”. However, he still loses 4/10 times, the aim is to get out of losing trades fast and let the winners run and make the most out of using stop losses.
He makes it sound easy doesn’t he?

Hi Bass! Can you post some crude charts from ninja and mt4? 1hr and 4hr? thank you!!

Yeh Sure why not and a quick analyses also.
Brent is in a downtrend and after forming a descending triangle broke that triangle in the direction of the trend.
Crude is in a downtrend and formed a descending triangle also but seems to be very well bid @ 43 the Floor of the Triangle, currently rebounding from the floor of the triangle but expected to follow the Brent down with the trend.

One more thing, a major event risk is ON this week with the FOMC set to raise rates for the First time since the meltdown of 2008 so extreme caution is required because this will be a major risk off event wich turns the markets upside down, chaos will reign but also new trends will emerge.

I know some very successful professional Market wizards traders who closed all their positions last week and this week and waiting patiently for the FOMC Decision to reass the outcome and the Markets behaviour and direction.

Best,
B.R.

Thank you!! can you also post 1hr Ninjas of those as well? Thanks again - love your charts!

Here u go.

thank you!

FOMC Preview: A Storm is Coming

What To Expect From FOMC? - Views From 25 Major Banks

Last Minute Thoughts on the Fed

Goldman: We expect the FOMC to remain on hold at Thursday’s highly anticipated meeting, with risks skewed to the dovish side...

Morgan Stanley: Our economics are not expecting any changes to Fed policy at this meeting and still see December as the most likely meeting for rate liftoff.

ING: ING preferred scenario for today's FOMC rate meeting sees the Fed refrain from a rate hike, manage expectations for an October hike, but deliver a benign outcome for risk assets with a suitably gradualist/dovish outlook.

BNPP: We expect the FOMC to leave policy unchanged but keep prospects for a rate hike before year-end very much on the table with the dots still likely to suggest one hike by year-end.

RBS: RBS forecasts the FOMC will hike the target range for the Fed Funds rate by 25bp.

Danske: Given that we look for no hike in September.

Deutsche Bank: We expect the Fed to hold off on raising the federal funds rate at the conclusion of this week’s FOMC meeting on Thursday.

Citi: Citi’s baseline is for a 25bps hike.

BofA Merrill: Fed hiking remains the base case for Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Credit Suisse: Our central view for the September 16-17 FOMC meeting is for no hike, and that we may see forward guidance hinting that a hike is being considered for the October or December meetings. This week is considered a close call though.

SocGen:A 25bp rate hike would be a surprise to the market (though not to SG Economists) but the biggest surprise of all would be failure to lace any decision with dovish undertones.

Credit Agricole: Ahead of the September FOMC meeting, CA expects the Fed to postpone lift-off to October, revise lower its projections for the median Fed funds rate path and core PCE but upgrade its outlook for growth and employment.

Barclays: We expect a mild correction in the USD mainly due to our expectation of Fed’s inaction on its September 17 meeting this week.

Nomura: We are expecting the FOMC to raise rates for the first time in December.

UBS:We think there is a 60% chance of a rate hike.

JP Moragn: The FOMC meeting is a very close call - we view it as essentially a coin flip.

Hang on tight, enjoy.

Best,
B.R.