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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #29,081
  • Edited 4:49am Aug 29, 2015 4:46am | Edited 4:49am
Great education on trading!

I traveled after my last trade, and still in a journey, and not trading all the while...I just came to the forum today and taken time to read I think everything posted since I have not been around...I can see great enthusiasm, mind power at work in the field (some say, jungle) of Forex trading...I appreciate the knowledge being shared here. Thanks!

I really respect the minds of traders! Whether they are making pips or not, Traders are Lion hearted! They go through a lot of technicalities before executing trades...and even if their analysis fail, their heads remain up for a better opportunity in the future. I really respect the heart of a Trader! It is a citadel of power! In fact, God has so so "configured" man a super machine of fruitfulness and productivity. And we also know more about how powerful we are when we are challenged by events or situation, for example, Forex market.

Thank you everyone for the great charts and posts. I enjoyed reading them all.

Will be with you more when I return.

God bless!
  • #29,082
  • Aug 31, 2015 1:03am Aug 31, 2015 1:03am
AusUsd

Price is forming a kind of triangle pattern at the 21ema.

There is a lot to suggest to my mind that the high probability trade here is a temporary long on the AusUsd with the MACD zero line pull through being the set up and a move to the 89sma as the target. Break of 21ema, pullback and move to 89sma is the market rhythm.

R:R 1:2 makes this a worthwhile trade for me, I will also be looking at two other things with this trade as mentioned in the attached graph

1) Possibilty of adding to the position when I move the stop to BE
2) Exit and reversal short at or around the 89 SMA as this is a counter trend trade

It is a UK bank holiday today so price could be very slow and it can be better to just have a day off, but I think this is a good set up so I have taken it

Happy Trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AusUsd 4h 31.08.15 2015.jpg Size: 274 KB
  • #29,083
  • Aug 31, 2015 1:23am Aug 31, 2015 1:23am
Gold

Break of 21ema and pullback to 21ema and 89SMA

MACD gave a TC signal, with no MA's as target, the next level is previous broken support as shown in chart.

WARNING: This trade has the potential to make another pulback to fully reach the MACD zero line in which case I will be stopped out. I accept that risk. If this happens I will still be looking to re-establish this trade, possibly with a MACD zero line pull through set up, assuming I believe it is still valid - a R:R of over 1:2 makes it worth taking now in my opinion however I have lowered my % of risk as I see the risk as higher on this one.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold 31.08.15 4h.jpg Size: 240 KB
  • #29,084
  • Edited 3:24am Aug 31, 2015 3:12am | Edited 3:24am
Quoting JonnyPip
AusUsd Price is forming a kind of triangle pattern at the 21ema. There is a lot to suggest to my mind that the high probability trade here is a temporary long on the AusUsd with the MACD zero line pull through being the set up and a move to the 89sma as the target. Break of 21ema, pullback and move to 89sma is the market rhythm. R:R 1:2 makes this a worthwhile trade for me, I will also be looking at two other things with this trade as mentioned in the attached graph 1) Possibilty of adding to the position when I move the stop to BE 2) Exit and reversal...
Hi, I look at this pair in a different angle. And I am replying two hours after your initial post.

Right now, AUDUSD market has rejected the 21ema, 4-5 times. And is moving away from 21ema, about 26 pips down to the south. On the daily chart, it is very much on the down trend, rejecting 8ema on a few occasions. it is also testing the 23.6% fibonacci. MACD is a zero break. It could break the triangle (seen on 4hr) to either direction - up north or down south. I would wait for the close of this candle if it breaks downwards, then I might consider for sell order. I would however, be cautious since the market looks a bit weak on Friday and tomorrow there are a few Red news coming from down under - Aussie.

Let's see what happens in the next hour or so.

Happy Monday, happy trading.
  • #29,085
  • Aug 31, 2015 9:22am Aug 31, 2015 9:22am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi, I look at this pair in a different angle. And I am replying two hours after your initial post. Right now, AUDUSD market has rejected the 21ema, 4-5 times. And is moving away from 21ema, about 26 pips down to the south. On the daily chart, it is very much on the down trend, rejecting 8ema on a few occasions. it is also testing the 23.6% fibonacci. MACD is a zero break. It could break the triangle (seen on 4hr) to either direction - up north or down south. I would wait for the close of this candle if it breaks downwards, then I might consider...
Hi Nic,

This is the issue I have at the moment, the USD index which is the USD paired against a basket of currencies is showing signs that it is losing momentum. I certainly agree the AUSUSD is in a downtrend and we don't necessarily want to be fighting it however looking at the daily and 4h charts below of the USD index I just can't help but see this having a small down move before it really gets going higher. This is all about timing in my mind, I still believe these pairs will show some short term strength against the USD (although it may be minimal) which is why I am sitting them out at the moment even though clearly they are edging downwards.

My Gold and AusUsd trades were stopped out for small losses, but I think I just got in too early as I even mentioned in the gold especially there was a risk of this - it can be a fine line though between getting your timing slightly wrong and getting back in, and getting your analysis wrong and banging your head against a wall, especially if it's counter trend! So I am prepared to reassess the possibility of a short term long position but I am in no rush, especially before the RBA rate decision tonight. If the USD index only pulls back to the zero macd line in the 4h chart the counter move probably wont be worth getting involved in, in which case I will just be waiting for the chance to get in short. This could only even play out as small pullback to the broken AusUsd trendline in 4h.

Plus if you look at the MACD for the USD pairs across the board, I.e GbpUsd, UsdJpy, EurUsd, NzdUsd etc they all suggest a last pullback maybe to the MACD zero line.

Considering the news, I was wondering whether the RBA rate announcement tonight will reflect the short term move higher I have been anticipating in the against the Usd before the USD non farm payrolls on Friday kick starts the move down..... Just a thought

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD Index 31.08.15 4h.jpg Size: 253 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USD Index 31.08.15 daily.jpg Size: 264 KB
  • #29,086
  • Aug 31, 2015 9:39pm Aug 31, 2015 9:39pm
Quoting JonnyPip
{quote} Hi Nic, This is the issue I have at the moment, the USD index which is the USD paired against a basket of currencies is showing signs that it is losing momentum. I certainly agree the AUSUSD is in a downtrend and we don't necessarily want to be fighting it however looking at the daily and 4h charts below of the USD index I just can't help but see this having a small down move before it really gets going higher. This is all about timing in my mind, I still believe these pairs will show some short term strength against the USD (although it...
Thanks. I think I understand what you mean. Keeping an eye on the USD index. Seeing is believing.
  • #29,087
  • Sep 1, 2015 9:56pm Sep 1, 2015 9:56pm
Jonny,

USD Index - pulled back to MACD zero but maybe not complete. But is moving away now. What do you say?
  • #29,088
  • Sep 2, 2015 1:18am Sep 2, 2015 1:18am
Quoting nic73
Jonny, USD Index - pulled back to MACD zero but maybe not complete. But is moving away now. What do you say?
Hi Nic,

This has been a little bit of a frustrating one because a pullback is expected, in my opinion its coming, and the longer the USD index moves up the sharper it will be.

But I have come to the conclusion I might have been second guessing the timing of the USD market this week instead of believing what I am seeing in front of me, which is the USD is still moving up and for all I know a correction might not come for a few days or even weeks.

So with that in mind, I will be looking to trade USD long until it actually shows me it is correcting. Which to be honest is probably what I should have done on Monday although I was being cautious as I still expect the correction at some point. Although it is not always a bad thing to be cautious, I personally don't mind missing trades as there will always be more and although I have avoided the Usd pairs a bit since Monday there were good opportunities to make money in the other currencies.

So for me, I am not fighting this thing
  • #29,089
  • Sep 2, 2015 1:21am Sep 2, 2015 1:21am
P.s I still think it will pull back to the MACD though - just not sure of the bigger overall correction yet
  • #29,090
  • Sep 2, 2015 1:48am Sep 2, 2015 1:48am
GOLD

Pulled back to macd zero line and gave signal as warned it could in previous post, this was the signal to re-establish the long trade to target 1,147.86 resistance which was highlighted in previous post.

Price completed its move to the 1,147.86 level which means now a continuation of the down move could be on the cards.

A head and shoulders pattern on the macd looks to be forming at this point which I could be looking to take. It may not however pull all the way back to the resistance line it could give a lower high.

If this plays out I would expect a move at least down to the 200ma but I will be looking even further to the 1,085.00 level. Should be plenty of possibilities to add to position or even scalp short if holding longer term positions isn't preferable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold 02.09.15 4h.jpg Size: 243 KB
  • #29,091
  • Sep 3, 2015 12:45am Sep 3, 2015 12:45am
NZDUSD, please comment on this pair. Is it going to move or is it going to stall? Should I wait for it to breach the bottom (dashed) TL to enter? And please see analysis within chart attached.

Thanks for your time.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_H4_3_Sept_2015.png Size: 42 KB
  • #29,092
  • Sep 3, 2015 7:56am Sep 3, 2015 7:56am
Quoting nic73
NZDUSD, please comment on this pair. Is it going to move or is it going to stall? Should I wait for it to breach the bottom (dashed) TL to enter? And please see analysis within chart attached. Thanks for your time. {image}
Hi Nic,

This is my view on this pair at the moment.

I am currently sitting it out as it is in a tight range, going long here would be fighting the trend and going short could be risky as it is near a resistance area.

We have non farm payrolls tomorrow as well so I am not expecting any real moves before then.

My view is biased to the non-farm tomorrow pushing this further down, but for me I am just going to wait for the market to show its hand first. If it breaks higher, the overall bias is still down so I will view it as an opportunity to sell at a better price. We may also get a nice 4hmacd set up to capture some pips on the way up IF the NZDUSD pair break higher.

I have marked the three circles where I anticipate possible scenarios and their entries which are ringed with black. The highest one is a stop and reverse as the long term bias is down. I have also put in what macd signals we could expect and also what the market rhythm would be.

Now it is just a case of waiting to see if the set ups occur

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NzdUsd 4h 3.09.15.jpg Size: 282 KB
  • #29,093
  • Sep 4, 2015 3:42am Sep 4, 2015 3:42am
looking like a pull back of ema 8 on GBP/USD
  • #29,094
  • Sep 4, 2015 4:14am Sep 4, 2015 4:14am
sorry last post G.M.T 9.30-9.45 on 15min time period
  • #29,095
  • Sep 4, 2015 5:12am Sep 4, 2015 5:12am
Update:

I have closed my USD positions ahead of the NFP's, just think there is too big of a risk this news could have a negative effect on the USD - maybe even snapping the USD index back to the MACD zero line.

Of course nothing is certain, but I believe the risk is a little higher having watched the prices this week.

  • #29,096
  • Sep 7, 2015 7:40am Sep 7, 2015 7:40am
Potential set up on GbpUsd

Price has broken the 21ema (just), but the large candle suggests big buying/offloading of profits which means most likely rhythm is break of 21ema, pullback, move to 89.

I will be looking to enter on a pullback as the higher probability in my opinion is as mentioned, rather than another leg down from the 21ema

A sell off in the USD index also adds some confirmation to this.

Lets see how it plays out, could be nice

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpUsd 07.09..15.jpg Size: 285 KB
  • #29,097
  • Sep 7, 2015 10:54am Sep 7, 2015 10:54am
GBPCAD

Possible 21ema, pullback, move to 89 sma set up

I am already long, so will be looking to add to position, could be a good chance to establish new short term longs to 89 SMA

Looks like it could time itself with the pullback trade mention earlier in GBPUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpCad 07.09.15 4h.jpg Size: 240 KB
  • #29,098
  • Sep 7, 2015 9:43pm Sep 7, 2015 9:43pm
EURJPY

How would you trade this pair. Looks like it has the potential to move down (south). Price is pulling back to 21ema, and the pull back is not complete yet. But tend to reject the 21ema many times now. If you look at the history of this pair (where the 2 arrows and areas 1 and 2 are), price stalled and when it started to move downwards, it did so very quickly, forming a large candle and there is no chance to take the trade. Is there a possible way to take such trade?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_H4_8_Sept_2015.png Size: 47 KB
  • #29,099
  • Sep 8, 2015 1:07am Sep 8, 2015 1:07am
AusNzd

Price has reached a resistance point where it has bounced a few times in the past

Price gave double top but with higher high, now waiting for a lower high to take the trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AusNzd 8.9.15 4h.jpg Size: 285 KB
  • #29,100
  • Sep 8, 2015 1:40am Sep 8, 2015 1:40am
Quoting nic73
EURJPY How would you trade this pair. Looks like it has the potential to move down (south). Price is pulling back to 21ema, and the pull back is not complete yet. But tend to reject the 21ema many times now. If you look at the history of this pair (where the 2 arrows and areas 1 and 2 are), price stalled and when it started to move downwards, it did so very quickly, forming a large candle and there is no chance to take the trade. Is there a possible way to take such trade? {image}
Hi Nic,

Looking at the EurJpy - the buying we have seen coming in seems very strong, too strong I suspect for this to just be a normal retracement. Counter trend moves are usually slow and choppy as they are fighting the trend. If you see a move like this (which is more or less as straight a line of price movement as you could get on my chart) you have to thinking that this is the start of a move up, even if it is just the start or a bigger correction on a higher chart.

So with that in mind, I will be looking for a pullback and move higher.

The trade set up would be:

Rhtyhm - break of 21ema, pullback, move to 89/200sma
Macd - Break of Macd higher with Zero Bounce or TC

P.s Regards to the EurJpy, it is possible to take those trades - I did in fact take it myself down to the 133.42 level which was a very nice trade. I also took the EurGbp before the same move in that pair which I am still in and holding/monitoring. The drop in Eur was down to "bad news" or rather negative statements from Eurozone officials.

I will put up a new chart to show you how I took it
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