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Attachments: Weekly Trend/Transition Flow
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Weekly Trend/Transition Flow

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 28, 2015 6:51am Aug 28, 2015 6:51am
Has anyone else looked at the first Weekly Candle to fail to make a new High in an Up Trend or a New Low in a Down Trend?

It's something I've been looking at for some time and was wondering how others use these important levels in their Trading.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 28th Aug 15 EUR:CAD W1 Chart.png Size: 88 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 28th Aug 15 EUR:CAD D1 Chart.png Size: 99 KB
  • #2
  • Aug 28, 2015 11:27pm Aug 28, 2015 11:27pm
Yes sure, it's a sign of weakness and is something I always scan for.
not on the lower time frames so much, but from the daily and up it makes more sense.
your top chart shows a huge exhaustion bar. I bet it will be downhill from here.
there is a lot of selling pressure there,

I would be looking to get in short when I see that. but the important thing is to wait until the bar close.
and not get ahead of price as it can change rapidly, I guess that chart is closed tho.
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #3
  • Aug 29, 2015 4:26am Aug 29, 2015 4:26am
It's these Weekly Failures to make a New High or New Low that indicates the potential for a significant Swing Point.



I know a significant Swing starts with the first Tick but I think the Weekly TF is where it becomes most apparent.

It's how to use this information, in a logical way, to Trade the Daily TF that I'm looking for.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Aug 15 EUR:JPY MN Chart.png Size: 102 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Aug 15 EUR:JPY W1 Chart.png Size: 126 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Aug 15 EUR:JPY D1 Chart.png Size: 93 KB
  • #4
  • Aug 29, 2015 4:40am Aug 29, 2015 4:40am
you are on the right track there, the tops are made when supply exceeds demand and the lows are made when demand exceeds supply.
why is this happening there? because large amount of sell or buy orders for some reason are located there.
so how can we predict where the large institutions are placing their orders, we can't,
we can only see where they placed them after the fact, and we can trade a return to a level in the hope it will bounce if it would return.
we can use fib levels and other confluences to find these areas but it isn't very exact.
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #5
  • Aug 29, 2015 8:02am Aug 29, 2015 8:02am
Quoting roughtrader
you are on the right track there, the tops are made when supply exceeds demand and the lows are made when demand exceeds supply. why is this happening there? because large amount of sell or buy orders for some reason are located there. so how can we predict where the large institutions are placing their orders, we can't, we can only see where they placed them after the fact, and we can trade a return to a level in the hope it will bounce if it would return. we can use fib levels and other confluences to find these areas but it isn't very exact.


Hi roughtrader;

I'm looking at which way the market exits these Levels, on the Daily TF, is it with or against the Weekly Primary Trend.

It's taking these observations and turning them into Trading opportunities.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Aug 15 AUD:USD MN Chart.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Aug 15 AUD:USD W1 Chart.png Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Aug 15 AUD:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 122 KB
  • #6
  • Aug 29, 2015 9:02am Aug 29, 2015 9:02am
How these Monthly/Weekly Levels get Traded comes down, a lot, to experience and discretion.

Unfortunately, as far as I can see, there is no simple and obvious way to Trade these Levels.

If anyone can find a simple and obvious way to take Trades from these Levels you will be well on your way to making it in the Art of Trading.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Aug 15 GBP:USD MN Chart.png Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Aug 15 GBP:USD W1 Chart.png Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Aug 15 GBP:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 109 KB
  • #7
  • Aug 29, 2015 9:21am Aug 29, 2015 9:21am
Quoting stevepatt
How these Monthly/Weekly Levels get Traded comes down, a lot, to experience and discretion. Unfortunately, as far as I can see, there is no simple and obvious way to Trade these Levels. If anyone can find a simple and obvious way to take Trades from these Levels you will be well on your way to making it in the Art of Trading.
There are simple and obvious ways to trade or not trade those charts. There are just no simple and obvious ways to guarantee a win.
  • #8
  • Aug 29, 2015 11:19am Aug 29, 2015 11:19am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} There are simple and obvious ways to trade or not trade those charts. There are just no simple and obvious ways to guarantee a win.

Hi Atokys;

Can you elaborate on the simple and obvious ways to Trade or not Trade the charts.

I'm more than aware there is no way to guarantee a winning Trade.
  • #9
  • Aug 29, 2015 11:27am Aug 29, 2015 11:27am
Quoting stevepatt
Hi Atokys; Can you elaborate on the simple and obvious ways to Trade or not Trade the charts. I'm more than aware there is no way to guarantee a winning Trade.
Depends on your system or methodology. Looking at that daily chart, I can think of a few trade ideas:

- Wait for the fast MA to cross under the slow MA, open a short position and exit when it crosses back
- Place a short order at the red line and attach a generic trailing stop at the blue line
- Place a long order at the blue line and attach a generic trailing stop at the red line
- Choose to avoid trading completely and wait for a definite trend
  • #10
  • Aug 30, 2015 8:23am Aug 30, 2015 8:23am
EUR/USD MN/W1/D1 Charts

We'll see what next week brings.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30th Aug 15 EUR:USD MN Chart.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 30th Aug 15 EUR:USD W1 Chart.png Size: 78 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 30th Aug 15 EUR:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 96 KB
  • #11
  • Edited 11:24am Aug 30, 2015 11:12am | Edited 11:24am
all markets are fractal, if you know what a fractal is?
no, I do not mean a fractal high or low. it is patterns within patterns within patterns as you zoom down the time frames.
if you zoom in anywhere you can see the complete picture. this could be used to get a clue, along with fib levels.
also you could use patterns, your top chart is a failed bull breakout from a triangle, the price then came back into the triangle
and broke out to the downside, the price target is the width of the triangle.

your second and lowest chart is a bull wedge, also with a failed upside breakout with a following breakout and re-test
if this is happening here it will also happen in other time frames because the market is fractal.
cycles could also be some help, also the market is all about ranges, you got large ranges and smaller ranges inside
the larger ones and smaller ranges inside the smaller ones etc.
what it's about is supply exceeding demand and demand exceeding supply.
that is all the market is, the tops and bottoms will be formed when either supply or demand is exhausted
and when one exceeding the other force. the market will then continue in the direction until it gets exhausted and gets overwhelmed by the other force.
if we all knew when this will happen, we would all be rich.
if a huge move have happened the market needs time to level out.
geometry can be used to find those levels.
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #12
  • Aug 31, 2015 6:34am Aug 31, 2015 6:34am
Quoting roughtrader
all markets are fractal, if you know what a fractal is?no, I do not mean a fractal high or low. it is patterns within patterns within patterns as you zoom down the time frames. if you zoom in anywhere you can see the complete picture. this could be used to get a clue, along with fib levels. also you could use patterns, your top chart is a failed bull breakout from a triangle, the price then came back into the triangle and broke out to the downside, the price target is the width of the triangle. your second and lowest chart is a bull wedge, also...



Hi roughtrader;

Thanks for your response.

I understand the Markets are Fractal in nature, these Fractals start with the first Tick and progress up through the Time Frames. Unfortunately for me things only become clear after the fact hence why I take note of these Weekly Failures to make New Highs, in a Bullish Trend, where Supply starts to exceed Demand or New Lows, in a Bearish Trend, where Demand starts to exceed Supply. These Weeks can turn into a Zone of Market Balance and become good places to look for Trade opportunities.

Like you say it comes down to Supply eventually exceeding Demand and vice versa.

I tend to use Candle Patterns to enter Trades Engulfing/Inside/Pin Bars mostly the important thing is finding the most profitable places to start looking for these Trade opportunities.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 31st Aug 15 AUD:JPY W1 Chart.png Size: 131 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 31st Aug 15 AUD:JPY D1 Chart.png Size: 109 KB
  • #13
  • Sep 1, 2015 2:49pm Sep 1, 2015 2:49pm
USD/CAD Long Trade Setting Up
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1st Sept 15 USD:CAD W1 Chart .png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1st Sept 15 USD:CAD D1 Chart.png Size: 111 KB
  • #14
  • Sep 4, 2015 1:28pm Sep 4, 2015 1:28pm
GBP/CAD Short (Counter Trend) Trade Setting Up
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4th Sept 15 GBP:CAD W1 Chart.png Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4th Sept 15 GBP:CAD D1 Chart.png Size: 105 KB
  • #15
  • Edited 2:11pm Sep 4, 2015 1:35pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting stevepatt
USD/CAD Long Trade Setting Up {image} {image}
An update on this Trade.

Supply still competing with Demand but the Weekly Level still has a Bullish Bias.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4th sept 15 USD:CAD D1 Chart.png Size: 87 KB
  • #16
  • Sep 5, 2015 9:01am Sep 5, 2015 9:01am
Quoting stevepatt
How these Monthly/Weekly Levels get Traded comes down, a lot, to experience and discretion. Unfortunately, as far as I can see, there is no simple and obvious way to Trade these Levels. If anyone can find a simple and obvious way to take Trades from these Levels you will be well on your way to making it in the Art of Trading. {image} {image} {image}
GBP/USD Weekly Update
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5th Sept 15 GBP:USD W1 Chart.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 5th Sept 15 GBP:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 108 KB
  • #17
  • Sep 5, 2015 9:21am Sep 5, 2015 9:21am
Quoting stevepatt
EUR/USD MN/W1/D1 Charts We'll see what next week brings. {image} {image} {image}
EUR/USD Weekly Update
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5th sept 15 EUR:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 99 KB
  • #18
  • Sep 9, 2015 11:50am Sep 9, 2015 11:50am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} EUR/USD Weekly Update {image}

EUR/USD D1 Short Trade
EUR/JPY D1 Short Trade

I hope anyone looking at this can see some logic in what I'm doing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9th sept 15 EUR:USD W1 Chart.png Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 9th Sept 15 EUR:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 9th Sept 15 EUR:JPY W1 Chart.png Size: 88 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 9th Sept 15 EUR:JPY D1 Chart.png Size: 84 KB
  • #19
  • Sep 9, 2015 12:05pm Sep 9, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/USD Weekly Update {image} {image}
GBP/USD D1 Short Trade
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9th Sept 15 GBP:USD W1 Chart.png Size: 75 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 9th Sept 15 GBP:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 80 KB
  • #20
  • Sep 11, 2015 2:04pm Sep 11, 2015 2:04pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} EUR/USD D1 Short Trade EUR/JPY D1 Short Trade I hope anyone looking at this can see some logic in what I'm doing. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Both these Trades stopped out for (-2R)
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