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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,781
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:14pm Aug 27, 2015 1:14pm
Quoting nutts
Quoting sisse
{quote} Thanks for the reply. I was talking about US oil right ? it seems to have hit the resistance right, if it breaks 44 is next target no. The rebound did have large volume though, more than the other mini rebounds on its way down over the last month. the above didn't really make sense to me ...sorry ...feel a little out of my depth with your above comment.
Clearing at the lows (large profit taking from speculative hands ...) ... lots of air at these levels so as long as fundamental numbers in Europe and the US keep printing gains we will retrace .... However, only a miracle will save OIL avoiding the current break this month that will unlock the extension $26.5 for later this year ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,782
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:20pm Aug 27, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}{quote} Clearing at the lows (large profit taking from speculative hands ...) ... lots of air at these levels so as long as fundamental numbers in Europe and the US keep printing gains we will retrace .... However, only a miracle will save OIL avoiding the current break this month that will unlock the extension $26.5 for later this year ... sisse

thanks sisse , I understand now, sorry I couldn't gather what you said before, and thanks for repeating in simpler terms

nutts
  • #136,783
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:35pm Aug 27, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting sisse
.... However, only a miracle will save OIL avoiding the current break this month that will unlock the extension $26.5 for later this year ... sisse
OPEC has wild cards to play - they might do that in an emergency meeting or wait til the next scheduled one Dec 4th (doubtful, either way). If US data starts turning down (not likely) and the USD gets weaker, we could see WTI drift back into the mid+ $40's. But it's not the season for that...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,784
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:41pm Aug 27, 2015 1:41pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Nice ride...
Only 1200 pips to go....
  • #136,785
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:45pm Aug 27, 2015 1:45pm
Quoting buttons
{quote} I think there has been quite a lot of change to the current mainstream flows.. As the GDP figures will cover the retaliative stable zone 3 months ending June, Im not sure how relative today's GDP print will be in reflection to where we are going next, but I think anything not expected could add fuel to the fire as you mentioned 3.7 (good bye euro L)(Hello euro S) and 2.7 will just sit back and watch the action... which in fairness may take a while to digest which may end as a bit of chop into the end of the week.. not my favorite action.....
The 3.7 had it... closed out all longs including order at 11250.. Banked majority of trade at 11455 inline with major s/r last part closed out at 11255 just after news print.. looking for short setup... of the D tf... Was hoping for more but cant be greedy..
  • #136,786
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:48pm Aug 27, 2015 1:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Only 1200 pips to go....
Be right...sit tight. You got that? (I don't think she'll make parity....).
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,787
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:59pm Aug 27, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} OPEC has wild cards to play - they might do that in an emergency meeting or wait til the next scheduled one Dec 4th (doubtful, either way). If US data starts turning down (not likely) and the USD gets weaker, we could see WTI drift back into the mid+ $40's. But it's not the season for that...
Yes.

If they wait to reduce pcc we will get a massive hammer below $30.xx is my view. If they act, we will get a decent reversal short term to form a stronger low floor to be tested later in the year.

Main problem from OPEC now is the internal struggle.

Like in any group of countries (ask the EZ or the EU) on the ups everybody is happy an pulling in the same direction, on the downs the big ones want to get rid of the poor ones (and the opposite). The disparities between the rich Arabs countries and the rest are huge now. While the Saudis, etc can stay in the game for a while longer at these levels, Venezuela, Nigeria, Ecuador, etc are on the brink of complete economic collapse and political turmoil ...making a decision there can be impossible in the short term ....


In any case, wild volatility expected in the upcoming months....

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Only 1200 pips to go....
je je je ... the M roll can give you a lot more if it end in the right side ... we'll see in a few.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,788
  • Aug 27, 2015 2:33pm Aug 27, 2015 2:33pm
Quoting sisse
... Tracking 1.127x for the D/W roll and 1.151x for the M roll ... sisse
Hi sisse,
are you expecting another Sunday night up move? Thanks
  • #136,789
  • Aug 27, 2015 3:57pm Aug 27, 2015 3:57pm
fucking awestruck with the V-bottom shit, no feats of bull strength will surprise me now.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,790
  • Aug 27, 2015 4:01pm Aug 27, 2015 4:01pm
A rather bullish close in the euro at these levels. Simple session continued in the US, equities and oil rallying and traversing lots of air in between. Things are changing a lot in the last couple of weeks of trading.

As expected, the first polls are starting to come from major players, odds for a Sep hike plummeted from +/-60% to less 25% (+/- 22%) for a hike after the current massive moves this week. Most charts also cleared the maps and unlocked extensions for the play but quickly retraced nearly 100% to leave the door wide open until the FED announcement.

Quoting sisse
---> From a Trading perspective, well each handle down in equities today reduced by equal amount the chances for a hike in September..... I expect to go under 25% [check] chances by the end of the week when we start getting the latest "polls" of the impact in these massive wave down).
More importantly again today dollar broke correlation with equities and treasuries triggering Key EARLY ALERTS for the next couple of weeks starting with the M roll.

I am changing mid term outlooks that hold since early this year until further data:

---> Changing Euro outlook from April from SELL to NEUTRAL
---> Changing Gold outlook from March SELL to NEUTRAL
---> Changing European and US equites from June SELL to NEUTRAL

Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Hi sisse, are you expecting another Sunday night up move? Thanks
No, not really know if Sunday night or not ...i just have a strong feeling that will get a tweet (a slip of mouth) very soon confirming no hikes in Sep.... meanwhile tracking 1.127x for the W and 1.151x for the M roll ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,791
  • Aug 27, 2015 11:34pm Aug 27, 2015 11:34pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ion?cmpid=yhoo
" CIS said he has no idea whether or not China is going to drag down the global economy. He doesn’t even care. When he trades, he tracks volumes and price moves to follow the momentum. For him the basic rule is: “Buy stocks that are being bought, and sell stocks that are being sold.” "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,792
  • Aug 28, 2015 5:56am Aug 28, 2015 5:56am
Quoting sisse
A rather bullish close in the euro at these levels. Simple session continued in the US, equities and oil rallying and traversing lots of air in between. Things are changing a lot in the last couple of weeks of trading. As expected, the first polls are starting to come from major players, odds for a Sep hike plummeted from +/-60% to less 25% (+/- 22%) for a hike after the current massive moves this week. Most charts also cleared the maps and unlocked extensions for the play but quickly retraced nearly 100% to leave the door wide open until the FED...
i mostly dont post on the thread but this time sisse i dont agree to your point .... a very strong feeling that the e/u has resumed the downtrend again @1.17xx ... with the clear break of 1.04xxx ....

on the technical side the gap @ 1.20xxx was not filled but still with such a bearish momentum from may 2014 ... the market doesnt cares to get it filled ....

every1 has its own thought and plan ... so good luck to all ... happy trading
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,793
  • Aug 28, 2015 10:24am Aug 28, 2015 10:24am
Quoting sisse
...A good number leaves the same map of the last 3 months in play until further data in Dollar and Gold but unlocks a pullback in OIL 39.7x -> 44.6x [check] via equities rallying (2015.xx) on the headline but stalling until hikes ...
...for those following the oil trade from ... clearing $44.6x in a superb +15% leg in 2 sessions. Equities still with room left but starting to cough at the highs. Euro pretty much a non event as expected since news.

All eyes in the closing range for the M rolls and end of summer trading ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,794
  • Aug 28, 2015 10:29am Aug 28, 2015 10:29am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...for those following the oil trade from ... clearing $44.6x in a superb +15% leg in 2 sessions. Equities still with room left but starting to cough at the highs. Euro pretty much a non event as expected since news. All eyes in the closing range for the M rolls and end of summer trading .... sisse
I have been a step behind on this oil move, but let it run - shorts will pay as the season winds down....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,795
  • Aug 28, 2015 10:32am Aug 28, 2015 10:32am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...for those following the oil trade from ... clearing $44.6x in a superb +15% leg in 2 sessions. Equities still with room left but starting to cough at the highs. Euro pretty much a non event as expected since news. All eyes in the closing range for the M rolls and end of summer trading .... sisse

hi Sisse

So you think the rebound has reached it top $44.6x
  • #136,796
  • Aug 28, 2015 10:58am Aug 28, 2015 10:58am
Quoting sisse
we are entering in Tweet mode trading [check] from the Jackson Hole especially important to keep track on the background given BOE and FED hikes ... Expecting dovish comments pouring from the conference after the Chinese debacle and the hammering in commodities (inflation)...

Tracking 1.127x for the D/W roll and 1.151x for the M roll ...

sisse
...and we actually got the tweet as expected but to the hawkish side from a dovish member ...je je je ... more tweet trading expected until the close...

Euro back to 1.11xx and 1.127x staring to look far for the W roll...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,797
  • Aug 28, 2015 11:11am Aug 28, 2015 11:11am
Wow of all people Fischer, bet rate hike odds just shot up
  • #136,798
  • Aug 28, 2015 11:16am Aug 28, 2015 11:16am
Quoting Pharm0r
Wow of all people Fischer, bet rate hike odds just shot up
perfect alignment of reports and tweets this week ...i hope you are enjoying the ride...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,799
  • Aug 28, 2015 11:20am Aug 28, 2015 11:20am
Quoting sisse
{quote} perfect alignment of reports and tweets this week ...i hope you are enjoying the ride... sisse
Cruise control baby
  • #136,800
  • Aug 28, 2015 11:31am Aug 28, 2015 11:31am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} i mostly dont post on the thread but this time sisse i dont agree to your point .... a very strong feeling that the e/u has resumed the downtrend again @1.17xx ... with the clear break of 1.04xxx .... on the technical side the gap @ 1.20xxx was not filled but still with such a bearish momentum from may 2014 ... the market doesnt cares to get it filled .... every1 has its own thought and plan ... so good luck to all ... happy trading
Yes momentum has been very strong. Profit taking in mass on the highs. Between 1.146x to 1.170x was pure air (nobody was trading those levels for a v long time) and the spike up was made in minutes (nobody trading in between)......so

1.20xx is still locked mate and will only have a marginal chance with the FED (no hikes till next year).

On the rest, I will be neutral until further data. Don't forget we are just sitting in the middle of the mid in the middle of the range with a couple of week to go for the FED announcement ... so my 2 cents: choose your poison wisely (r:r wise), especially in the mid in a neutral environment ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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