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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #29,061
  • Aug 25, 2015 3:09pm Aug 25, 2015 3:09pm
Hi Ross,

Id say Eurusd has one last pullback left before heading higher, will look to get in on it tomorrow given the chance!

  • #29,062
  • Aug 25, 2015 7:25pm Aug 25, 2015 7:25pm
Quoting Pipsi cola
tried to make input settings to be more understandable {file}
So this is to be replaced with the first one on Post 29035?
  • #29,063
  • Aug 25, 2015 8:04pm Aug 25, 2015 8:04pm
I am trading in oil and gas. I tried the indicators and templates shared, need some help in setting up MACD settings. Could someone pls confirm whether the default setting is fine or need to change.
  • #29,064
  • Aug 26, 2015 12:56am Aug 26, 2015 12:56am
Quoting johnstockel
I am trading in oil and gas. I tried the indicators and templates shared, need some help in setting up MACD settings. Could someone pls confirm whether the default setting is fine or need to change.
Hi John,

The indicator setting is 5,13,1 however some platforms will only allow a minimum of 2 for the third setting. So for example mine is set at 5,13,2 because of this, but it doesn't make any difference apart from seeing the two lines ever so slightly apart instead of as a single line.

It looks like there could be a new shorting opportunity in US and UK oil very soon. I am waiting....
  • #29,065
  • Aug 26, 2015 1:53am Aug 26, 2015 1:53am
Quoting JonnyPip
{quote} Hi John, The indicator setting is 5,13,1 however some platforms will only allow a minimum of 2 for the third setting. So for example mine is set at 5,13,2 because of this, but it doesn't make any difference apart from seeing the two lines ever so slightly apart instead of as a single line. It looks like there could be a new shorting opportunity in US and UK oil very soon. I am waiting....

Thank you very much.
  • #29,066
  • Aug 26, 2015 6:56am Aug 26, 2015 6:56am
I have a question here. See chart below on EURJPY. Price pulled back to 21ema or almost did. And then move away from 21ema. At the sametime, it is also reacting between 89sma and 200sma / 365ema. Would you sell at the move away?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_26_August_2015.png Size: 33 KB
  • #29,067
  • Aug 26, 2015 7:24am Aug 26, 2015 7:24am
Quoting nic73
I have a question here. See chart below on EURJPY. Price pulled back to 21ema or almost did. And then move away from 21ema. At the sametime, it is also reacting between 89sma and 200sma / 365ema. Would you sell at the move away? {image}
Hi Nic,

Personally I wouldn't take that tarde as the R:R is minimal as setting your target anywhere past the bottom trend line is asking for trouble.

But, as per the rules of 4h macd, I think that trade seems to tick all of the boxes even taking it to the lower trend line as you should be able to get at least 1:1 out of it.

Personally though I would filter that and wait for a minimum of 1:2 but usually I would hope for anywhere up to 1:10 or even higher sometimes

I am looking at this pair and waiting for a turn around on the next 4h candle which may be where I get in to go long.

Don't forget those that did sell and make money are now going to be buying back what they sold to cash in there profits, plus new buyers looking to get in like myself should mean the trend line holds.

I am anticipating a move up to the around the 1.40 area and this looks like the place to buy in given the chance

So no I wouldn't take it personally, but I think it fits all the 4h macd rules if you wanted to trade it. As you can see, those who took it would have made money.

As Phil says, you don't have to take every signal. Just because you sit a trade out, it doesn't mean you were wrong to do so.

P.s - The downside to this pair is both the Eur and Jpy are storng at the moment so it is kind of pitting the strong against the strong. This can lead to choppy sideways moves so it might not just shoot off. It depends on the strength of the Eur and how much stronger it will be compared to the strength of the Jpy. If you look at the Jpy pairs they are all showing Jpy strength.
  • #29,068
  • Aug 26, 2015 8:37am Aug 26, 2015 8:37am
Hi,

I am new to this thread and going through the post one by one. As the post is very huge in number, it will take sometime to go through one by one. In the meanwhile could someone give me an outline of this system, it will helpful.

Thanks in advance.
  • #29,069
  • Aug 26, 2015 9:17am Aug 26, 2015 9:17am
hi john like the EUR/USD for this I go on the 15min time and put up trend line me self on the EMA and SMA I find it help's with coming in on a deal but all the deal's are base on the 4hour time period also if the 1hour does a crossover it's a strong signal am still on dome my self tho
  • #29,070
  • Aug 26, 2015 9:28am Aug 26, 2015 9:28am
Quoting Ross88
hi john like the EUR/USD for this I go on the 15min time and put up trend line me self on the EMA and SMA I find it help's with coming in on a deal but all the deal's are base on the 4hour time period also if the 1hour does a crossover it's a strong signal am still on dome my self tho

Thank you very much.
  • #29,071
  • Aug 26, 2015 3:39pm Aug 26, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting nic73
I have a question here. See chart below on EURJPY. Price pulled back to 21ema or almost did. And then move away from 21ema. At the sametime, it is also reacting between 89sma and 200sma / 365ema. Would you sell at the move away? {image}
hi men I had a look at the EUR/JPY and I think the best time on the deal for today is 5.45am G.M.T the MADC is saying to me that it is a continuing trend
  • #29,072
  • Aug 27, 2015 11:07pm Aug 27, 2015 11:07pm
This week, on Monday alone, managed to trade 3 counter trend trades on EURUSD, USDCAD and NZDUSD pocketing some 150pips in total. Thanks to the sudden surge of the market on the opening of US market on Monday. The move went towards my direction that I predicted. But after Monday, market momentum becomes kind of weak and I did not quite spot entry opportunity with the pair I am trading. But I am happy with my results and analysis of what I have already taken.

Below is NZDUSD chart. Price pulled back to 21ema and looks like moving away. Momentum is a little weak so i am not too sure whether to trade and it's a Friday. But anyway, I have the upper and lower trend lines taken from the Daily time frame and price is ranging within this area on the Daily time frame. And my anticipation is for the market to break the bottom trend line, this is break out of the Daily range. Maybe wait for a pull back before entering trade.

What's your view on this pair and my analysis?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_H4_28_Aug_2015.png Size: 43 KB
  • #29,073
  • Aug 28, 2015 1:42am Aug 28, 2015 1:42am
Quoting nic73
This week, on Monday alone, managed to trade 3 counter trend trades on EURUSD, USDCAD and NZDUSD pocketing some 150pips in total. Thanks to the sudden surge of the market on the opening of US market on Monday. The move went towards my direction that I predicted. But after Monday, market momentum becomes kind of weak and I did not quite spot entry opportunity with the pair I am trading. But I am happy with my results and analysis of what I have already taken. Below is NZDUSD chart. Price pulled back to 21ema and looks like moving away. Momentum is...
Hi Nic,

Good work buddy

I agree with your analysis. I think this is a little early to get in at the moment but if we get a pullback to the macd zero line and then a good signal away from the 21ema and the .650 level it could the start of the next move down. If it breaks above that .650 level it could move as high as even the .6650 level though. As you say, there is also no harm in waiting for a move away then looking to get in on the pullback but then we have to accept it might not come as price moves strongly.

So to clarify, I will personally be looking for a zero line macd signal from the bottom of this range and the 21ema with a kind of double top in the candles. Or if it breaks above the 21ema I will look for a pullback and a TC signal. The 89sma and 200sma would be a little close for me and I don't see any reason the price couldn't make its way back to the top of that range anyway, sop that would be my target on a long TC pattern after a 21ema break.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd4h 28.08.15.jpg Size: 261 KB
  • #29,074
  • Aug 28, 2015 2:00am Aug 28, 2015 2:00am
The EurJpy trend line didn't hold as I expected it to. I anticipated greater EUR strength over JPY strength however there is no point denying what we see with our eyes right?

Price broke the trend line and has now pulled back to no less than FIVE resistance points, the 21ema, 200sma, 365ema, trend line, resistance level.

Does this mean price will definitely go down? We know the answer is no as anything can happen. But if we get a signal from the macd zero line it could be a very nice set up.

Personally if I can get in I will try and let it run to the 133.851 level if possible with an eye on the green line around the 135.27 level as somewhere it could bounce or maybe even give another opportunity to add to it.

It is also the right shoulder of a daily head and shoulders pattern on the chart (not the macd) so we could get an even bigger move down.

If price breaks above the 21ema here and pulls back, we could get a nice TC to the top of the previous highs. We will have to see whats on offer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurJpy 28.08.15 4h.jpg Size: 275 KB
  • #29,075
  • Aug 28, 2015 2:24am Aug 28, 2015 2:24am
Heads up:

A nice clear set up seems to be forming in the EurGbp

A look at the 4h charts gives us a pullback to the 21ema and a MACD zero line signal long

When moving down to the 1h chart we can see a nice triangle seems to be forming.

The entry could be a pullback to the 21ema in the 1h chart followed by a TC or more conservatively a break and pullback to the trend line.

The projected target for the triangle is around the .746 level giving a hefty R:R and possible chances to add to the position at intervening support/resistance levels.

This could be a nice move, we will have to wait and see
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurGbp4h 28.08.15.jpg Size: 235 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EurGbp 1h 28.08.15.jpg Size: 247 KB
  • #29,076
  • Aug 28, 2015 5:37am Aug 28, 2015 5:37am
Quoting JonnyPip
{quote} Hi Nic, Good work buddy I agree with your analysis. I think this is a little early to get in at the moment but if we get a pullback to the macd zero line and then a good signal away from the 21ema and the .650 level it could the start of the next move down. If it breaks above that .650 level it could move as high as even the .6650 level though. As you say, there is also no harm in waiting for a move away then looking to get in on the pullback but then we have to accept it might not come as price moves strongly. So to clarify,...
Hey thanks for inserting the details and your analysis.

Agree about the possible strong move if the trend line is breached. I would keep an eye on the 30min or 1hr (preferable) time frame for a pull back to execute my early entry.
  • #29,077
  • Aug 28, 2015 6:43am Aug 28, 2015 6:43am
Jonny, did you see that NZDUSD has just breached the bottom trend line? Go south.
  • #29,078
  • Aug 28, 2015 7:06am Aug 28, 2015 7:06am
Quoting nic73
Jonny, did you see that NZDUSD has just breached the bottom trend line? Go south.
Hi Nic,

I'm just not convinced this is the start of the bigger move down. I may be wrong, equally you may be able to squeeze some pips out of it but I'm just not convinced by this yet.

I am waiting for one more pullback before it heads lower if I am to get in.

  • #29,079
  • Aug 28, 2015 7:09am Aug 28, 2015 7:09am
Quoting JonnyPip
{quote} Hi Nic, I'm just not convinced this is the start of the bigger move down. I may be wrong, equally you may be able to squeeze some pips out of it but I'm just not convinced by this yet. I am waiting for one more pullback before it heads lower if I am to get in.
I am not in that trade yet. I am extra careful about trading on Friday. Why do expect more pull back?
  • #29,080
  • Aug 28, 2015 7:24am Aug 28, 2015 7:24am
Quoting nic73
{quote} I am not in that trade yet. I am extra careful about trading on Friday. Why do expect more pull back?
It has stopped just short of reaching the macd zero line and the turn away isnt strong it is technically still in a short term 1h bull market.

It may well turn lower from here, looking at the other currencies it could well do. Nzd looks weak USD could turn strong on news in 10 mins.

I just think there are better set ups at the moment. If it turns lower here there should be another chance to get in anyway.

As I said, it could well turn lower but I think there are better places to put the $$

i.e the eurgbp - gbpnzd+gbpaud look like they could fly
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