The Really Useless Thread | Page 6839 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,761
  • Aug 26, 2015 1:30pm Aug 26, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting AaronWard
Hey Sisse, I'm a real big fan of yours and read everything you write. I really appreciate all you do here. That spike to 1.1700 was really something to see. Didn't quite make it to the 38% retracement of the fall from 1.40 of April of last year though. It is not clear to me what "fair value" is but I am guess it is still higher than the 1.1360 it is currently trading at. If I had to guess a strong dollar is why the Empire State Manufacturing came in at -14.9 last week. That and whatever is happening in the black box known as China. Like everybody,...
Thanks for your very kind words. ...

On the commodities part ...I would only add from the FOOL post the other side of the equation which is a collapse in demand too. All emerging countries (especially CHINA) that were driving the rally in the past decade burst and most of them (Russia, Brazil, etc) except China already in recession.

Basically both supply and demand got crushed....

Quoting The Fool
{quote} cause of oil crash is easy to see: SA has abdicated and decided to let the open market decide what the price of crude should be - PLUS - the revolution in fracking/directional drilling has brought on large new supply vectors, most notably from N. America. Marginal, over-leveraged suppliers have to keep pumping to service debt, stay afloat, etc - and the more they produce, the larger the supply glut gets, the lower the price goes, the more they have to produce to stay alive - a vicious circle. All that could change if SA/OPEC would cut production....
On currencies via Dollar. Hikes in play (better say no hike sep in play) GDP/NFP combo for the preemtive move. Confirmation of no hike we already have all markets aligned in the respective breaks for a sharp and fast exhaustion legs. A hike confirmation and "catch if you can" fast move in the direction of the mid term trends (break up dollar) ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,762
  • Aug 26, 2015 1:35pm Aug 26, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Agree with your daily analysis of course. At least you're in the driving seat for the big GDP news and can make an informed decision after.
Mmmm not sure about the driving seat... once we are in the trade feels more like the passenger seat... GDP may give us a clue where we will be heading next, which to me may as well be GPS... lol
  • #136,763
  • Aug 26, 2015 1:53pm Aug 26, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting sisse
...I would only add from the FOOL post the other side of the equation which is a collapse in demand too. .... Basically both supply and demand got crushed.... GDP/NFP combo for the preemtive move. Confirmation of no hike we already have all markets aligned in the respective breaks for a sharp and fast exhaustion legs. A hike confirmation and "catch if you can" fast move in the direction of the mid term trends (break up dollar) .... sisse
true that, sisse....re: the Fed, I have been betting on a baby ffr (10 bps) hike in Sept, that appears to be what the "staff report leak" indicated a few weeks back (does anybody believe those "accidents" are real?) - 10 bps in Sept and another 25 bps in Dec....as usual, I am trying to catch something on either end of the risk field...let's see if a big GDP pop tomorrow throws cold water on the V-bottom equity rally?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,764
  • Aug 26, 2015 1:57pm Aug 26, 2015 1:57pm
Quoting The Fool
Many believe tighter money will run (mal)investment out of speculative equities and derivatives and back into the real economy.
Well that has my head spinning.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #136,765
  • Aug 26, 2015 2:07pm Aug 26, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} All emerging countries (especially CHINA) that were driving the rally in the past decade burst and most of them (Russia, Brazil, etc) except China already in recession.
This is what has me wondering about the rate hike and whether the decision to go wishy-washy was concern about the global economy.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #136,766
  • Aug 26, 2015 3:54pm Aug 26, 2015 3:54pm
....uffff super wild intraday volatility across the board, US Equities clearing the knee jerk reaction part of the risk leg early this week and Euro in +500 up and -500 ticks down in a couple of sessions .... Very well done to all who manage to catch the amazing leg down... here just watching the super yummy moves from afar as I didn't even remotely have the chance to play them...

One more time this year back to the never ending 1.127x for the W/M roll combo ... Low and high of month set so planning accordingly for tomorrow key US numbers...

Nothing to do here. Same levels, no trades, no plays and map not clear at all until further data ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,767
  • Aug 26, 2015 4:37pm Aug 26, 2015 4:37pm
Quoting sisse
....uffff super wild intraday volatility across the board, US Equities clearing the knee jerk reaction part of the risk leg early this week
as far as US indices go, the breakdown this week may effectively widen the range in play, even in the near-term: I would not be surprised to see /ES run back to either 2,100 or 1,800 in September - maybe it could bounce all the way between both. Good times.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,768
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:57am Aug 27, 2015 1:57am
Quoting ClinicalEx
No respite from China but a tentative recovery underway elsewhere. DAX took back 9820 , and now 10094 comes into play, a level for the serious part of a move that's carrying multiple instruments. A weekly close around these levels, not below 9820 keeps the floor intact, but a monthly and quarterly close above 10094 is the play to track for the long term swings. 1895 on S&P with NY to track the not so gradual switch from fear to greed; especially if the consumer print goes well. {quote} Compressed range on the pair with the slight overshoot....
Momentum and strength once they took the level after the soft opening and we easily managed to break 1.1374 and close well below later in the day. In the end, a massive two day reversal of Monday's move and serious pain for traders/investors who got wasted at the highs. A strong GDP then, to continue to rapidly make up lost ground; while a par print puts us trading in between levels waiting for the important closes and a strong miss creates loads of ambiguity in how we (I should say me.) approach the techs from these levels.
  • #136,769
  • Aug 27, 2015 2:54am Aug 27, 2015 2:54am
I agree ClinicalEx, the China syndrome continues... 2nd largest economy and catalyst to the world economy recovery.. or not as the case may be... Still holding longs and loaded a new long order ready around 11250. PA pushed into orders overnight around 11300 handle finding small bit of support..Technical retrace to the fib 50/62 zone whole number 11300 from original breakout move. Strong move down today will close out my trades long, and may even set up shorts... not married to any positions.. we will see how it all pans out...
  • #136,770
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:11am Aug 27, 2015 6:11am
Quoting buttons
I agree ClinicalEx, the China syndrome continues... 2nd largest economy and catalyst to the world economy recovery.. or not as the case may be... Still holding longs and loaded a new long order ready around 11250. PA pushed into orders overnight around 11300 handle finding small bit of support..Technical retrace to the fib 50/62 zone whole number 11300 from original breakout move. Strong move down today will close out my trades long, and may even set up shorts... not married to any positions.. we will see how it all pans out...
Best of luck for your plays, buttons. Nice potential entry point for your new longs, so let's see how this important news shakes the market. Can it live up to the craziness we've seen over the last three days?

We faded the core of bulls who tried to hold 1.1374 early on for a nice intraday bearish move which is still flowing.

Moving onto the important GDP print. From most to least probable, in my case:

A +- par GDP: opens a move to 1.1374 to track the intraday range and sell if it breaks back. A lengthier play than the others to track, that may go into the following day(s), maybe creating a range from 1.1240/15->1.1374.

A solid miss- not lower than 2.7: opens up 1.1466 for the fade, or play the breakdown with the intraday range there. A quick, smooth play.

A solid increase- not higher than 3.5: Smooth intraday flow to 1.1215. A moderate move with eyes on a further break, but nothing new unless you're already loaded.

A strong miss- below 2.5: 1.1466 intraday break with a very fast extended range on the top-side break. Quick and and nasty non-play in my books with volatile whipsawing markets.

A strong increase- 3.7 and up: 1.1143 opened in no time played with a quick 1.1215 break. Unrealistic and rapid play unless you're aready in, with the potential overshoot below.

Unfortunately, I flattened the book a bit too much on the initial 1.1374 test; on edge in this environment I suppose and not paying enough attention to NY later in the day. Trying to refresh positions at the highs then if I can, or sell the lows with all eyes on 1215.
  • #136,771
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:15am Aug 27, 2015 6:15am
...and that was it for the European session, Euro, European Equities, Gold and OIL back to square before the knee jerk reaction risk leg on Monday...

Back to business after the last few days sitting on the sidelines with KEY GDP numbers in the US. The technical field was cleared in all majors for the FED rate play so GDP numbers could be enough to trigger the next swings and change mid term outlooks across the board until the end of the year...

Nothing to see here until reports so early lunch and ready for the next trades ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,772
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:26am Aug 27, 2015 6:26am
Good luck ladies and gentlemen

Would love love love a better than expected GDP number for a push straight to 1.09xx, and more importantly a monthly close below 1.1209
  • #136,773
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:52am Aug 27, 2015 6:52am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} GDP print. From most to least probable, in my case: A +- par GDP: opens a move to 1.1374 to track the intraday range and sell if it breaks back. A lengthier play than the others to track, that may go into the following day(s), maybe creating a range from 1.1240/15->1.1374. A solid miss- not lower than 2.7: opens up 1.1466 for the fade, or play the breakdown with the intraday range there. A quick, smooth play. A solid increase- not higher than 3.5: Smooth intraday flow to 1.1215. A moderate move with eyes on a further break, but nothing new...
I think there has been quite a lot of change to the current mainstream flows.. As the GDP figures will cover the retaliative stable zone 3 months ending June, Im not sure how relative today's GDP print will be in reflection to where we are going next, but I think anything not expected could add fuel to the fire as you mentioned 3.7 (good bye euro L)(Hello euro S) and 2.7 will just sit back and watch the action... which in fairness may take a while to digest which may end as a bit of chop into the end of the week.. not my favorite action.. lol
  • #136,774
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:26am Aug 27, 2015 7:26am
...here we go for last round of reports this month. Key numbers & levels in play given the latest market development and how close we are to FED rates decision.

Expectations are very high but had a tricky flaw in play. They are not reflecting the latest problems in China. A miss/inline with earlier initial advanced GDP numbers will caught markets with the wrong foot on top of the massive technical levels already taken after the risk leg this week.

The most important thing in play for today is the positioning for the monthly close and the earliest alerts in play for the "no sep hikes":

--> On the fundamental side, no hikes sep in play with slightly lower or miss in the headline will open a test of lows in equites but it will guarantee an extended wide neutral chop zone till Q4 2015, an extension of the pullback in Gold, and confirmation of the break down in Dollar (Euro break up) all via rates.

Any other scenario (including a very good number) is nothing to see from a Fundamental perspective until September with the last big report (NFP) in play before the FED announcement.

--> On the technical side, no hikes play opens Euro mid term leg 1.127x - 1.183x with max extension 1.204x with strong intermediate stops on the current highs. Gold 1120.xx - 1232.xx. S&P 1870.x - 2040.xx.

A good number leaves the same map of the last 3 months in play until further data in Dollar and Gold but unlocks a pullback in OIL 39.7x -> 44.6x via equities rallying (2015.xx) on the headline but stalling until hikes ...

--> For the actual flows in the euro,

Simple and direct trade in play. A miss (no hikes sep) opens break confirmation with the M roll for the leg 1.127x -> 1.150x until NFP with a continuation to the highs and final mid term targets with NO hike confirmed. Good or very good numbers, leave us in nothing to see if you are not already loaded for a test of the lows of the 1.12xx handle. ...

Plenty of action and opps across the board so GL all trading, planing to trade or simple mapping the next moves....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,775
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:32am Aug 27, 2015 7:32am
Better than expected .... watch-out for equities getting a quick "HIGH" (literally ...) and carrying the board (especially oil)....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,776
  • Aug 27, 2015 10:52am Aug 27, 2015 10:52am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Thank you, Daily clear from a technical point of view.....of course always contingent on news...I'm home free at this point, will reevaluate around 1.11xx (50% of the last daily tf leg). Weekly setting up for one hell of a bearish candle as long as GDP plays in the US favor. I wouldn't put a sub 1.1209 close out of range yet for the monthly...some stars need to align
sos
  • #136,777
  • Aug 27, 2015 12:44pm Aug 27, 2015 12:44pm
Quoting sisse
...A good number leaves the same map of the last 3 months in play until further data in Dollar and Gold but unlocks a pullback in OIL 39.7x -> 44.6x via equities rallying (2015.xx) [in play] on the headline but stalling until hikes ...
Quote
--> For the actual flows in the euro,.... Good or very good numbers, leave us in nothing to see if you are not already loaded for a test of the lows of the 1.12xx handle [check]. ...

A simple session as expected. Taking intraday partials for the closing range in equites and OIL. Euro completing the leg to the lows of the 1.12xx handle for those still enjoying the ride ... →→→

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} sos
Nice ride...

Technical and fundamental plays over until next month we are entering in Tweet mode trading from the Jackson Hole especially important to keep track on the background given BOE and FED hikes ... Expecting dovish comments pouring from the conference after the Chinese debacle and the hammering in commodities (inflation)...

Tracking 1.127x for the D/W roll and 1.151x for the M roll ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,778
  • Aug 27, 2015 12:52pm Aug 27, 2015 12:52pm
[quote=sisse;8460688]{quote} {quote}
A simple session as expected. Taking intraday partials for the closing range in equites and OIL. Euro completing the leg to the lows of the 1.12xx handle for those still enjoying the ride ... →→→

Hi sisse

great posts and amazing analyse...only recently found this forum and glad I have.

Can I ask do you think this bounce in oil today has more strength .... I personally thought 42 the resistance zone ?
  • #136,779
  • Aug 27, 2015 12:57pm Aug 27, 2015 12:57pm
[quote=nutts;8460699]
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} A simple session as expected. Taking intraday partials for the closing range in equites and OIL. Euro completing the leg to the lows of the 1.12xx handle for those still enjoying the ride ... →→→ Hi sisse great posts and amazing analyse...only recently found this forum and glad I have. Can I ask do you think this bounce in oil today has more strength .... I personally thought 42 the resistance zone ?
Thank for the kind words ...

Well in Oil is a strictly technical discussion. Sure $42.xx is the obvious last break point but nobody was holding the lows at the break (the clear up was well above), in simple words aiming for a daily retrace at least not the intraday only one if that makes any sense to you ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,780
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:05pm Aug 27, 2015 1:05pm
[quote=sisse;8460708]
Quoting nutts
{quote} Thank for the kind words ... Well in Oil is a strictly technical discussion. Sure $42.xx is the obvious last break point but nobody was holding the lows at the break (the clear up was well above), in simple words aiming for a daily retrace at least not the intraday only one if that makes any sense to you .... sisse

Thanks for the reply.

I was talking about US oil right ? it seems to have hit the resistance right, if it breaks 44 is next target no. The rebound did have large volume though, more than the other mini rebounds on its way down over the last month.

the above didn't really make sense to me ...sorry ...feel a little out of my depth with your above comment.
38 traders viewing now