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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,721
  • Aug 24, 2015 9:16am Aug 24, 2015 9:16am
Sisse, so will the Fed still be committing suicide now if they don't hike?
  • #136,722
  • Aug 24, 2015 9:16am Aug 24, 2015 9:16am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Forget about currencies...they are irrelevant in all this moves except if you rode the risk currencies via YEN ...They are all moving as collateral of the main moves... Treasuries alerts triggered. Investor starting to run to real safety, the end of the leg is near ... sisse
I felt it was rode on both JPY and CHF. No?

Yup, ok. Agreed upon
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #136,723
  • Aug 24, 2015 9:38am Aug 24, 2015 9:38am
That carnage ended? in a host of important tests. 10 year yield tested 1.93; Dollar tested 92.60 (DXY), Equities tested 1850; and we're in the process of breaking back 1.1640 on EU and especially 9820 on DAX. A lot to digest: distortions probably ironed out in the stock markets and ultimately a healthy move to a fairer mean (unless you were caught in the crossfire.) and provided China stops hemorrhaging. The markets may have normalised "policy" before the FED could even get off the ground.
  • #136,724
  • Aug 24, 2015 9:49am Aug 24, 2015 9:49am
Quoting ClinicalEx
That carnage ended? in a host of important tests. 10 year yield tested 1.93; Dollar tested 92.60 (DXY), Equities tested 1850; and we're in the process of breaking back 1.1640 on EU and especially 9820 on DAX. A lot to digest: distortions probably ironed out in the stock markets and ultimately a healthy move to a fairer mean (unless you were caught in the crossfire.) and provided China stops hemorrhaging. The markets may have normalised "policy" before the FED could even get off the ground.
I'm still expecting another wave, although it may be weak, like a tiny wave 5 that gets truncated. Markets look to be adjusting to new price points & equities may just be closing a gap before continuing. I'm treading cautiously as I had closed all my prior entries so (as always) must be right with the trade.
defense wins championships
  • #136,725
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:01am Aug 24, 2015 10:01am
So are stocks cheap yet?
  • #136,726
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:04am Aug 24, 2015 10:04am
Quoting seemoore
{quote} I'm still expecting another wave, although it may be weak, like a tiny wave 5 that gets truncated. Markets look to be adjusting to new price points & equities may just be closing a gap before continuing. I'm treading cautiously as I had closed all my prior entries so (as always) must be right with the trade.
All eyes on breaking back 1.1550 -> 1.1480 in my case. GL, I think we've set the extremes.
  • #136,727
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:30am Aug 24, 2015 10:30am
Sick moves today all across the board, what a way to open the week.
  • #136,728
  • Aug 24, 2015 12:34pm Aug 24, 2015 12:34pm
Quoting Pharm0r
So are stocks cheap yet?
some were, for a minute - if you had access you coulda filled at some nice lows, no dice for small dogs tho
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,729
  • Aug 24, 2015 12:51pm Aug 24, 2015 12:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} some were, for a minute - if you had access you coulda filled at some nice lows, no dice for small dogs tho
absolutely if you watch CNBC total bargains are to be had.
rat
  • #136,730
  • Aug 24, 2015 1:47pm Aug 24, 2015 1:47pm
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for a wild opening range. Treasuries leading the board and as suspected equities finding intraday floor after the opening range. Expecting markets to stabilize intraday after the massacre until the closing range... sisse
As expected Treasuries signalled the Emergency Hand Break and markets found intraday foot except in Oil where bears show no sign of stopping the carnage.

All markets held the break for the european session (Dax 972x, S&P 1870.xx, Euro 1.164x, Gold 1180.xx) and the same levels to track for the roll obviously. Lots of actions and data to digest both in the TA and FA side until the close so lets start with the Hot Potato:

Quoting Vorex
Sisse, so will the Fed still be committing suicide now if they don't hike?
---> From a strictly Macroeconomic point of view Absolutely !!!. After today more than ever. The economy is screaming for normalisation and we are starting to see major cracks in main markets (equities today) as consequence of overstaying with low rates.

More importantly this current risk leg down is a MAJOR WAKE UP CALL for the FED to see what would happen if for whatever reason we stay for long at these levels or if China triggers a global recession. The FED IS NAKED without any POLICY options and with ZERO room for manoeuvre ... It'S a VERY dangerous game from any rational and economic perspective...


---> From a Market point of view. As we discussed on Friday. Only conclusion "MARKETS 6 FED 0" thats the score..and its a clean sweep.... bastards outsmarted the FED and they WON the game again. They made a killer in the way up and now are forcing the FED to hold rates for even longer (and some extremist even calling for further free money QE, etc). If FED doesnt hike this year (even Sep) it will be a shame for the FED and it will have vast consequences in its credibility and policy efficiency in the future...


---> From a Trading perspective, well each handle down in equities today reduced by equal amount the chances for a hike in September. They manage to trigger panic and scared even the most sane and conservative investor. Realistically (as for today) the odds of FED hiking in Sep went to the floor (I expect to go under 25% chances by the end of the week when we start getting the latest "polls" of the impact in these massive wave down).

Also from the TA front, we unlocked potential extension legs in Treasuries and Dollar while Equities and Gold are leaving a huge mattress (still TBC as we have LOTS of untested air from the panic leg) in between for a potential bottom to form a very wide extended chop zone for a zigzag play Sep (no hikes) --> Dec (hikes).

In simple words, it will be idiotic to just ignore this move and go for a blind hike bet Sep not only because of markets reasons but for obvious TA reasons across the board.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,731
  • Aug 24, 2015 6:32pm Aug 24, 2015 6:32pm
Thank you sisse , very much appreciated.
  • #136,732
  • Aug 25, 2015 5:26am Aug 25, 2015 5:26am
...and that was it for the European session. German numbers bringing markets back to reality. Enough to start forming a decent intraday bottom in Equities (DAX). US numbers can confirm a fast and very tradable pullback in equities intraday.

Oil having a breather too after a reminder that Europe economy is in the process of bouncing back carrying Euro back to test the breakout area. Looks that the storm is passing but its leaving a long trail in charts. Equities confirming a stronger bottom with the upcoming numbers (especially USD GDP) will put back us in hikes mode for the next swings in DOLLAR.

For now, flat across the board, looking for opps for positioning for the M roll/end of summer and the main swings after with the ECB/NFP/FED explosive combo that will kill set the tone and trend for Q3....

Nothing to see until news and NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,733
  • Edited 6:57am Aug 25, 2015 6:43am | Edited 6:57am
After the fact, but I'm short from 1.1606

Another good spot if you're looking to short maybe 1.1663 so long as we don't get a HH. These should retrace to the 1.11xx area min if you can find an excuse......not many bears left after that clean sweep...have to start building again. 1.1663 may depend on the news later today @ 10

Cant long until deep into the 1.09xx area or possibly the 1.11xx area here

Dangerous game the FED is playing going into Q4 it seems like to me...but considering that equities came back yesterday- I'm assuming most looked at it as an excuse to get stocks cheap....at least until the next play by the FED comes through, generally as long as Apple stays green the rest will follow
  • #136,734
  • Aug 25, 2015 7:09am Aug 25, 2015 7:09am
Quoting Pharm0r
After the fact, but I'm short from 1.1606 Another good spot if you're looking to short maybe....I'm assuming most looked at it as an excuse to get stocks cheap....at least until the next play by the FED comes through, generally as long as Apple stays green the rest will follow
Indeed but the last super sharp part of the leg was made in minutes before the open meaning algos trading algos so we'll need a couple of session to fill the area with real money ....

In any case, GL with your shorts in Euro, a hand from inline or better numbers from the US today will help you today but the last real mover and last one of the month comes with US GDP later this week. Until then Lows (equities, oil, dollar, etc) and Highs (euro, oil, gold, etc) are not set at all and are all naked ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,735
  • Aug 25, 2015 7:11am Aug 25, 2015 7:11am
No respite from China but a tentative recovery underway elsewhere. DAX took back 9820 , and now 10094 comes into play, a level for the serious part of a move that's carrying multiple instruments. A weekly close around these levels, not below 9820 keeps the floor intact, but a monthly and quarterly close above 10094 is the play to track for the long term swings. 1895 on S&P with NY to track the not so gradual switch from fear to greed; especially if the consumer print goes well.


Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} All eyes on breaking back 1.1550 -> 1.1480 in my case. GL, I think we've set the extremes.
Compressed range on the pair with the slight overshoot. Either way 1447 breaking back for the week will depend on equities.
  • #136,736
  • Aug 25, 2015 7:24am Aug 25, 2015 7:24am
Quoting ClinicalEx
... Compressed range on the pair with the slight overshoot. Either way 1447 breaking back for the week will depend on equities.
Why compressed mate? ... we had a huge volatility breakout with a proper price break in euro, didn't we?

1.147x -> (retest of highs ... 1.174x) is the actual momentum play with news ...at least in strictly TA sense. A bad number in Consumer Confidence (not expected) with feeble and nervous markets we'll put us in the highs (lows depending on instrument) in no time ...

We'll see in a few...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,737
  • Aug 25, 2015 7:35am Aug 25, 2015 7:35am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Why compressed mate? ... we had a huge volatility breakout with a proper price break in euro, didn't we? 1.147x -> (retest of highs ... 1.174x) is the actual momentum play with news ...at least in strictly TA sense. A bad number in Consumer Confidence (not expected) with feeble and nervous markets we'll put us in the highs (lows depending on instrument) in no time ... We'll see in a few... sisse
Oh yes, just referring to the intraday range since Europe settling in between levels without much space to breath. But yes, loads of volatility and exciting markets after the really boring early summer.
  • #136,738
  • Aug 25, 2015 9:42am Aug 25, 2015 9:42am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed but the last super sharp part of the leg was made in minutes before the open meaning algos trading algos so we'll need a couple of session to fill the area with real money .... In any case, GL with your shorts in Euro, a hand from inline or better numbers from the US today will help you today but the last real mover and last one of the month comes with US GDP later this week. Until then Lows (equities, oil, dollar, etc) and Highs (euro, oil, gold, etc) are not set at all and are all naked .... sisse
Thank you, Daily clear from a technical point of view.....of course always contingent on news...I'm home free at this point, will reevaluate around 1.11xx (50% of the last daily tf leg).

Weekly setting up for one hell of a bearish candle as long as GDP plays in the US favor. I wouldn't put a sub 1.1209 close out of range yet for the monthly...some stars need to align
  • #136,739
  • Aug 25, 2015 10:18am Aug 25, 2015 10:18am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} All eyes on breaking back 1.1550 -> 1.1480 in my case. GL, I think we've set the extremes.
Final play in my books. I've got a buffer so...
1.1425->1.1374.
  • #136,740
  • Aug 25, 2015 12:04pm Aug 25, 2015 12:04pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Thank you, Daily clear from a technical point of view.....of course always contingent on news...I'm home free at this point, will reevaluate around 1.11xx (50% of the last daily tf leg). Weekly setting up for one hell of a bearish candle as long as GDP plays in the US favor. I wouldn't put a sub 1.1209 close out of range yet for the monthly...some stars need to align
Nicely done!!!. Perfect news(highest consumer confidence in the year? ...hikes sep??? jejeje).. Easy goes easy comes in the Euro. Very yummy retrace and pretty much a 100% retrace to break out... Chop zone in the making until tomorrow GDP #s that will settle the M roll...sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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