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  • #10,281
  • Aug 21, 2015 1:22pm Aug 21, 2015 1:22pm
Quoting The Fool
I cast a worm out at the close to catch a bounce next week - SPY Aug4 $201/$201.50 calls for 20c...
No fill, only long plays I have running in options now is long VXX for Oct expiry. Hope everybody got thru the epic move this week with good gains and at least no scars. Will be very interesting to see if next week brings more of the same. Have a great weekend all....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,282
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:44pm Aug 21, 2015 2:44pm
Holy crapocino ... . What a week ... . Amazing that we ended here:

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I only have one breached put side in a single QQQ iron condor setup (at 103). That being said, all the call sides are virtually worthless; I'll decide what to do with those next week depending on how the week develops.

Those SVXY short call verts (at 98/101 Aug 28th and Sep 4 expiry) I took when price was around 95 are working out smashingly ... . 25 pt drop -- ridiculous.

Unfortunately, I jumped on the FXE short call vert bandwagon a little early (didn't think we'd be sniffing at 112 here ... ). That's a long term play, so if that's the worst the week had to bring, well, I'm fine with that.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,283
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:55pm Aug 21, 2015 2:55pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
the FXE short call vert bandwagon a little early (didn't think we'd be sniffing at 112 here ... ). That's a long term play, so if that's the worst the week had to bring, well, I'm fine with that.
I have resisted the urge to short fiber & glad of it. Safe haven flows to the euro over the USD don't make much sense to me. With all the CB meddling going on, I just find it easier NOT to trade the currencies.....

Anyway, a 343mio share red candle for SPY today, peak volume of the year by far...now just have to see if we get the V....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,284
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:24pm Aug 21, 2015 3:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have resisted the urge to short fiber & glad of it. Safe haven flows to the euro over the USD don't make much sense to me. With all the CB meddling going on, I just find it easier NOT to trade the currencies..... Anyway, a 343mio share red candle for SPY today, peak volume of the year by far...now just have to see if we get the V....
Frankly, I regret doinking with it (FXE) ... , but it's on now ... . Just gotta make the best of it, I guess.

I'm going to hand sit at least through Monday to see how this plays out ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,285
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:55pm Aug 21, 2015 3:55pm
Quoting The Fool
FSLR $49/$48.5 I bailed for 10 cents net, went to 58c at today's close, or like a 48c net......sigh
FSLR closed at $45.27 and the $49/$48.5 putz grossed $1.53 at the close.....I netted 10c............

Like Jesse L. said: be right: sit tight - you got that?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,286
  • Edited 4:42pm Aug 21, 2015 4:20pm | Edited 4:42pm
Quoting The Fool
well, i'll be damned if Ima get my pecker caught in another nasty V-bottom. You let the Fed heads work the jawbone for a day or two and if the Sept ffr hike gets pushed off into Dec in the feeble bots' brainchips, we could be back at $210+ next week.
well $210 would be the Mother of all V-Bottoms, but we'll see. I will be very surprised to see any more daily 50-pt spoos drops next week....

....unless they're biggern that

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/cashi...195100750.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,287
  • Aug 21, 2015 6:45pm Aug 21, 2015 6:45pm
Biggest weekly /ES red candle (R=136.5) since first week August 2011...looking back 10 years, only 4 I see larger....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,288
  • Aug 21, 2015 6:59pm Aug 21, 2015 6:59pm
Grrrreece
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,289
  • Aug 21, 2015 7:33pm Aug 21, 2015 7:33pm
things start looking nicer around the options playground when the vol gets up. The 4-week SPY DD below scopes out to a safe zone $179 to $213, maxP at expiry is at $186 or $209. All depends on how cheap it goes on.....4c mid prolly a dream.....but I like the idea.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,290
  • Aug 21, 2015 9:17pm Aug 21, 2015 9:17pm
SUNE
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,291
  • Aug 21, 2015 9:34pm Aug 21, 2015 9:34pm
very cheap stocks with liquid options - so what?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,292
  • Aug 21, 2015 9:44pm Aug 21, 2015 9:44pm
Quoting The Fool
very cheap stocks with liquid options - so what?
The shares are cheap, you can buy 1k blocks for under $1k. Spend a few centavos more and buy cheap long-dated puts, for a little insurance. Then buy long call diagonals. Look a few months out, same as diagonals, and sell covered calls. You will make on the covered calls about what the diagonals cost. If the stock moves beyond the upside b/e of the diag, you will likely be in enough profit on the shares to nullify the loss on the diag death slide. Key is trading cheap but liquid stocks with liquid options....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,293
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:15pm Aug 21, 2015 10:15pm
GSAT
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,294
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:20pm Aug 21, 2015 10:20pm
with oyul scraping bottom let's wait for PLUG to get back to 18c, buy 10k shares, then it will put on another spike to $10
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,295
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:25pm Aug 21, 2015 10:25pm
silver
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,296
  • Edited 11:08pm Aug 21, 2015 10:43pm | Edited 11:08pm
brazil
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,297
  • Aug 22, 2015 3:00pm Aug 22, 2015 3:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well $210 would be the Mother of all V-Bottoms, but we'll see. I will be very surprised to see any more daily 50-pt spoos drops next week.... ....unless they're biggern that http://finance.yahoo.com/video/cashi...195100750.html
I might consider reloading short call verts at 204 ... . Will just to see how things look ... .

Might want to avert my gaze on Monday ... . Bloodbath could continue for a bit; we're right at the 2015 low. Thursday: plunk, to support at 204; Friday, plunk, to support at the 2015 low; Monday, another plunk, to support at 190? I've been surprised on repeated occasions both ways, so almost no use in pondering ... . (Engages hand-sitting mode).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,298
  • Aug 22, 2015 4:39pm Aug 22, 2015 4:39pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} ES, SPY, DIA are poised for a trend move, i'm positioning for a 18 month strangle on them once I get the preferred strike prices
To kill time while hand sitting, I thought I'd ponder a set up like CG is suggesting ... . A long-term, massively wide strangle/iron condor in SPY, especially now that SPY is at the .50 Fib (smack dab) for the range from the Oct 2014 low to the 2015 high, in a state of high vol, and that contemplates that we'll not see 213 again for some time. The only expiry currently available for which 213 is at or outside the expected move is the Dec 31 Q expiry. Additionally, the expected move for the downside for that expiry is 182 (the October 2014 low-ish), although if you wanted to go fairly delta neutral, this would be the setup: 150/155/213/216 for .84 cr.

That is only 131 DTE ... . Unfortunately, as you move farther out in time, prices become somewhat illiquid ... .

A Dec 31 Q expiry 155/213 short strangle goes for 3.22 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,299
  • Aug 22, 2015 6:08pm Aug 22, 2015 6:08pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
the setup: 150/155/213/216 for .84 cr. That is only 131 DTE ...
If you're gonna do a $5 spread in the puts you may as well do the same in the calls, maybe $215/220 ----- it's a long time to tie up margin, though

...& you are right about illiquidity in the far dated far otm strikes, bid/ask gets too wide
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,300
  • Aug 22, 2015 6:39pm Aug 22, 2015 6:39pm
I was surprised to see TLT have a thin day Friday, only up ~40c....maybe we will see it turn? Maybe a good place to shop a DD, with IVR spiked?

,,,,well, even if IVR is up, iv is still quite low - I might shop a double calendar instead....get the put side now
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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