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  • #9,541
  • Jul 24, 2015 11:39am Jul 24, 2015 11:39am
Quoting The Fool
well I hope somebody was scalping /ES short today. I didn't see this sharp selloff coming this week & thought they would try to push for new index highs before next week's FOMC - but that was last week - so yeah, I'm about a week out of sync. B
ES, SPY, DIA are poised for a trend move, i'm positioning for a 18 month strangle on them once I get the preferred strike prices
  • #9,542
  • Jul 24, 2015 11:46am Jul 24, 2015 11:46am
Quoting StrayDog
... with /ES @ 2112, I sold the Sep /ES fut. options 2150/2180 call spread for $10.00 CR

Closed the mofo NOW, for $5.00, or 50% gain. /ES at around 2072.

Reasons:
1) Achieved 50% gain on bear call spread with 60 DTE (or so) in just 36 hours
2) /ES at 2070 is at 61.8 fib retracement of the latest up move (2035 - 2126)

Give me the money.
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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,543
  • Jul 24, 2015 11:51am Jul 24, 2015 11:51am
Quoting Cecil Gee
... I actually bought at $1.60 and closed at $40 minus the other strangle leg for the call side ...
The way to go, with all this outlier moves.

+

I was looking today at /ES July24 2090 puts... when /ES made a bounce to 2095/96... but due to some reasons, didn't took them... they are 12x now. Much better choice than shorting the futures. Bigger money with shorting futures, but extra small risk on just foookin' buying the puts... (1.50 - 17.50)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,544
  • Jul 24, 2015 12:33pm Jul 24, 2015 12:33pm
Quoting StrayDog
Achieved 50% gain on bear call spread with 60 DTE (or so) in just 36 hours ... Give me the money.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,545
  • Jul 24, 2015 2:49pm Jul 24, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yes I did comment before, but I will do it again . /ES futures options
Thanks tons ... . Will get off my butt soon to go in that direction ... .

Had a fairly good week with this Friday downturn ... . Was 3 out of 3 for the earnings plays (AAPL, GPRO, and SBUX); the jury is still out on my AMZN, which expires next Fri. I've already peeled off the short put side, the short call side is a 545/560 vert, and price is currently at 529.5 ... . I'll be perfectly happy with closing that out at BE; don't want to take any chances ... .

Unfortunately, the downturn has "wiped out" virtually all of my index IC's/short call verts except for a couple in QQQ and one in SPY, leaving me more than 60% in cash. The ones I set up last night in IWM and DIA fortunately didn't fill, which is a good thing ... . There will be more vol early next week to take advantage of in the indices.

Even my crappy GLD position is looking up, although it has a long way to go ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,546
  • Jul 24, 2015 2:53pm Jul 24, 2015 2:53pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Closed the mofo NOW, for $5.00, or 50% gain. /ES at around 2072. Reasons: 1) Achieved 50% gain on bear call spread with 60 DTE (or so) in just 36 hours 2) /ES at 2070 is at 61.8 fib retracement of the latest up move (2035 - 2126) Give me the money. {image}
Love the quick and dirty stuff ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,547
  • Jul 24, 2015 3:20pm Jul 24, 2015 3:20pm
And now that we got a little bit of vol seeping back in here (could all change in a heartbeat with BTFD'ers waiting for an opportunity), I'll get back to putting on index trades next week ... . No sense in torturing myself with those earnings plays if I don't have to ... .

Although there are a lot of plays that could be done next week -- BIDU, TWTR, GILD, WFM, FB, probs not enough juice in TWTR and WFM to dick with (even a short strangle with next Friday's expiry nets <1.00 for TWTR/WFM; not worth the anxiety/BP). And BIDU and FB are the kind of underlyings that the market goes bat crap crazy post earnings ... . Nothing to see here ... . Move along ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,548
  • Jul 24, 2015 3:35pm Jul 24, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
And now that we got a little bit of vol seeping back in here (could all change in a heartbeat with BTFD'ers waiting for an opportunity), I'll get back to putting on index trades next week ... . No sense in torturing myself with those earnings plays if I don't have to ... . Although there are a lot of plays that could be done next week -- BIDU, TWTR, GILD, WFM, FB, probs not enough juice in TWTR and WFM to dick with (even a...
the highlighted ones have good potential for outlier moves
  • #9,549
  • Jul 24, 2015 3:48pm Jul 24, 2015 3:48pm
Gosh, if the stock markets fall hard enough for a week or so, Wall Street's whore, the Federal Reserve, won't be able to raise rates......punch forever....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/-serio...183546430.html#

" “Our concern is that there are a number of pieces falling into place that indicate a cyclical market top – at a minimum, a serious correction,” warns Ramsey.

If that happens as the Fed goes into its September meeting, there won’t be a rate increase,..."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,550
  • Jul 24, 2015 3:48pm Jul 24, 2015 3:48pm
Right now, it looks like QQQ has the highest IVR (no surprise, really), followed by IWM, DIA, and SPY, so I'll look to put on IC's in QQQ first, IWM second, etc. See what gets filled ... . Because everything is thin on the call side, I've been setting up the short call strike prices a little above the expected move for the expiry and then attempting to create a delta neutral IC with the short put side, which leaves a bit of room to the downside in the event of an implosion ... .

Naturally, should the short call strike prices for the expected move start to appear beneath the current ATH's, I'll probably modify where I set those ... . In the meantime, setting the short call strike at or near the expected move is the only way I'll get any premium out of the short call wings ... . Seems to have worked out okay ... so far ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,551
  • Jul 24, 2015 4:04pm Jul 24, 2015 4:04pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Right now, it looks like QQQ has the highest IVR ... .
with the recent bear action in the techs I'd spec Q's & IWM would be good bets for short calls.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,552
  • Jul 24, 2015 4:18pm Jul 24, 2015 4:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} with the recent bear action in the techs I'd spec Q's & IWM would be good bets for short calls.
On top of that like white on rice ... . Love the article about the dude stumping for a delay in rate increase because of a potentially impending "serious correction".
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,553
  • Jul 24, 2015 4:25pm Jul 24, 2015 4:25pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Love the article about the dude stumping for a delay in rate increase because of a potentially impending "serious correction".
maybe the ho gets religion and makes a clean break from her pimp, raises the ffr 25 bps just to show she can. I think it's down to that now - the Fed has to move.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,554
  • Jul 24, 2015 7:39pm Jul 24, 2015 7:39pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} did the GLD puts diagonal above, but Aug $97/96 for $0.00 debit
didn't fill for $0.00....I am sitting on lotsa cash and some wayward TLT & TBT Aug cheap calendars.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,555
  • Jul 24, 2015 10:18pm Jul 24, 2015 10:18pm
a little wider time spread gives you a better profit range, you pay for that though...be just like me to short GLD at the bottom....diag below risks $0.12 to net $0.75
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,556
  • Jul 24, 2015 10:36pm Jul 24, 2015 10:36pm
increasing iv will make these bflies a better bet....10-bag maxP for a steep slide in Sept, maybe needs to be deeper .... 55 dte is a stretch?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,557
  • Jul 24, 2015 10:49pm Jul 24, 2015 10:49pm
Quoting The Fool
a steep slide in Sept, maybe needs to be deeper .... 55 dte is a stretch?
SPY $178 is ~15% drop from todays close
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,558
  • Jul 24, 2015 11:00pm Jul 24, 2015 11:00pm
deeper, pushed out to the quarterly (9/30) - see the P/L on the Sep expiry day (9/18) - the upside b/e would be near $203 - I like the put side spreads - the rising iv feeds them
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,559
  • Jul 25, 2015 1:49am Jul 25, 2015 1:49am
Quoting The Fool
deeper, pushed out to the quarterly (9/30) - see the P/L on the Sep expiry day (9/18) - the upside b/e would be near $203 - I like the put side spreads - the rising iv feeds them
yeah, I like it, don't bother with the death slide risk of BWB's, keep the margin for selling call spreads to fund the debit on the bfly - a super bear setup with bfly, why not? Anyway, I need to get some trades on, stuff with some long dte's, as I will be traveling a lot for work in the next couple months & won't have time to daytrade....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,560
  • Jul 25, 2015 1:55am Jul 25, 2015 1:55am
Quoting Cecil Gee
ES, SPY, DIA are poised for a trend move,
a trend move, damn....I have almost forgot what one looks like.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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