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  • #136,681
  • Aug 21, 2015 11:25am Aug 21, 2015 11:25am
Quoting sisse
DAX ...Strong long term value buyers near 1000x as widely expected, pretty much the meat of the move gone but the lows are far from set and naked [check] for the next few sessions. ...
...and that was it for European Markets, in another superb day here flat as pancake in Europe ... only remaining swing target in US equities and micro intraday GOLD left open for the last session of the Week ...we are in panic mode so ride the pig until it exhaust itself ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,682
  • Aug 21, 2015 11:30am Aug 21, 2015 11:30am
Sisse, do you think that the highs of May/June could realistically be under threat? At these current levels, it doesn't seem like such a bad time to start considering LONG term major shorts with a stop loss at 1.147, targeting parity. Risk/reward looks very juicy.
  • #136,683
  • Aug 21, 2015 11:47am Aug 21, 2015 11:47am
Quoting diggo
Sisse, do you think that the highs of May/June could realistically be under threat? At these current levels, it doesn't seem like such a bad time to start considering LONG term major shorts with a stop loss at 1.147, targeting parity. Risk/reward looks very juicy.
Yes for a breach. It will depend a lot in equities forming a quick floor or not.

IMO, its not bad time at all to start mapping a reload of mid term shorts for the wave to parity (the RMT leg in dollar) but obviously not today. Whats the point and the hurry in stepping in front of running train that is driven my major flows from the major market movers around the world in the middle of the late Summer Friday afternoon....

I am tracking 1.136x for the roll...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,684
  • Aug 21, 2015 11:58am Aug 21, 2015 11:58am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes for a breach. It will depend a lot in equities forming a quick floor or not. IMO, its not bad time at all to start mapping a reload of mid term shorts for the wave to parity (the RMT leg in dollar) but obviously not today. Whats the point and the hurry in stepping in front of running train that is driven my major flows from the major market movers around the world in the middle of the late Summer Friday afternoon.... I am tracking 1.136x for the roll... sisse
Wise words, many thanks. I will hold off the major mid term shorts for now and will monitor the markets (and your analysis) like a hawk into September.. For the short term, trying some shorts near the upper TL (1378.5 is the number I have)
  • #136,685
  • Aug 21, 2015 12:05pm Aug 21, 2015 12:05pm
.... AND that was it a massive level in OIL ...for the HEADLINES and mass consumption!!!! ...OIL ticking to the $39.xx handle. I can see the headlines across the world ....Its more a psychological tick down more than technical ...we are going to close above $40.xx and chop for a while ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,686
  • Aug 21, 2015 12:21pm Aug 21, 2015 12:21pm
Quoting sisse
... All eyes on 2130.xx [check]failure to take it during the next few sessions until max the FOMC will mark the HIGH of the year in US equitie....
opening a very yummy leg until next year to 1942.xx [still locked] with max extension 1890.xx[still locked] and hard intermediate stops at 2045.xx [check]and...
Quoting sisse
...GOLD overshoot on fundamentals and risk as expected but failed to test the max extension 1180x.xx after the wild opening range in Europe which opened the chance also for a soft quick in and out play intraday in the next sessions to test the highs [check]. Tracking closely 1152.xx [check] until NY.
....and thats was it for me ... Clearing last open target in US equities ES (S&P) on the test 1988.xx a few points above exact final target but don't be a dick for tick rules apply at these late Friday times. Also clearing micro Gold 1160.xx intradayway off final target but enough is enough ...

In nothing but a glorious week flat across the board !!!....memorable last 3 days and superb session !!! ...Done for the week and probably the rest of the summer ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,687
  • Aug 21, 2015 12:25pm Aug 21, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} ....and thats was it for me ... Clearing last open target in US equities ES (S&P) on the test 1988.xx a few points above exact final target but don't be a dick for tick rules apply at these late Friday times. Also clearing micro Gold 1160.xx intradayway off final target but enough is enough ... In nothing but a glorious week flat across the board !!!....memorable last 3 days and superb session !!! ...Done for the week and probably the rest of the summer ... sisse

BRILLIANT !!!

Cannot thank you enough
  • #136,688
  • Aug 21, 2015 12:46pm Aug 21, 2015 12:46pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...bastards already cleared first HIKE!!! and outsmarted the wishy-washy FED (FED is in deep shit now with markets at these levels...but they deserved given the lack of north in their comments)...
This is what I was referring to

Fed wasn't clear- equities went on without them. and by "went on" I mean they lit the fucking booster packs and never looked back. Now what choice do they have
  • #136,689
  • Aug 21, 2015 12:53pm Aug 21, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting Maks
{quote} You expect the parity in EU as the next move after this panic settles (with possible breach of 1.1480), at the same time you write that Dollar will fall as last domino. But if USD falls, does not it mean appreciation of Euro, i.e. EU rally? Or Euro will be in deeper shit than USD and will depreciate faster and that is how parity will be achieved? Thank you.
That's a metaphor. It's the last piece of the puzzle. The last domino that will fall in a row of domino's.

In other news: I was stupid enough to short at the .1010 level... this whole play account thing is getting the better of me Ah well, new round, new possibilities.
  • #136,690
  • Aug 22, 2015 10:31am Aug 22, 2015 10:31am
Quoting diggo
Sisse, do you think that the highs of May/June could realistically be under threat? At these current levels, it doesn't seem like such a bad time to start considering LONG term major shorts with a stop loss at 1.147, targeting parity. Risk/reward looks very juicy.
Sure they are. Despite DAX and CAC futures have both finished the week on a strong horizontal support (highs of 2014), everything is possible in this market deserted by long term investors. After some retracement on Monday, a bad German IFO on Tuesday could trigger a new leg down to the next support (952x/963x for the DAX, 436x/442x for the CAC) which might put EUR easily above 1.15xx

Imo, Long Term Euro Equities Investors and Long Term Euro Currency sellers will only find a market back to rationality/reality after ECB Press Conference on Sep 3rd and US NFP the day after :

Published results of Euro companies are overall good/as expected.
EZ economy is improving and ECB QE may last more than expected due to unexpected very low level of inflation (oil).

Published results of US companies are overall good/as expected.
US economy has strong employment and growth data and deserves now FED confidence through rate liftoff. Optimistic FED giving its confidence will support US Equities to digest the hike.

This should balance the fact that China has now to learn how to handle a slowdown after having learnt few years ago how to handle a vigorous growth. Not the end of the world. Unlimited money (til 2% inflation !!) is printed in Europe.
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  • #136,691
  • Aug 23, 2015 11:10pm Aug 23, 2015 11:10pm
Ok so we have breached the highs of May/June. I have just entered my first major long term short position @ 1.149, although I will be looking for more soon. We are right at the top of the range, I am quietly confident 1.15x will hold despite the shockwaves across the markets at the moment. I have my SL at 1.16, first target is ~1.08 and longer term is below parity.
  • #136,692
  • Aug 23, 2015 11:14pm Aug 23, 2015 11:14pm
Quoting diggo
Ok so we have breached the highs of May/June. I have just entered my first major long term short position @ 1.149, although I will be looking for more soon. We are right at the top of the range, I am quietly confident 1.15x will hold despite the shockwaves across the markets at the moment. I have my SL at 1.16, first target is ~1.08 and longer term is below parity.
A brave call Diggo lets see!
rat
  • #136,693
  • Edited 11:48pm Aug 23, 2015 11:28pm | Edited 11:48pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} ....and thats was it for me ... Clearing last open target in US equities ES (S&P) on the test 1988.xx a few points above exact final target but don't be a dick for tick rules apply at these late Friday times. Also clearing micro Gold 1160.xx intradayway off final target but enough is enough ... In nothing but a glorious week flat across the board !!!....memorable last 3 days and superb session !!! ...Done for the week and probably the rest of the summer ... sisse
Sisse.. just brilliant. I cleared my S&P shorts way too early around the 2030 mark.

Looking at FTSE, it is at an important historical level now @ 6000. It could form a temporary floor at this level. I am trying some longs here (5982), looking for a dead cat bounce more than anything. It could be hard and fast.

ASX, also at historically important 5000 level. I have cleared all short positions now. Going long @ 5020.

China is looking mighty scary.. But I am sniffing for a bargain here. Looking at the China A50.. currently 8800 coming off 15,000. What an incredible drop. Will be long if it reaches 8500, very strong support there. A hard and fast run at 10,000 should be easily achievable.

Dow Jones.. Could be looking to form the floor @ 16,000. I am not trading this, but r/r looks good here if one wanted to long..
  • #136,694
  • Aug 23, 2015 11:53pm Aug 23, 2015 11:53pm
Quoting rattyo
{quote} A brave call Diggo lets see!
It seems the stars, moon and the sun may be aligning. This week could be the best opportunity to enter mid - long term short positions. 1.15x will NOT give up easily. Bulls need a Weekly and/or Monthly close above 1.15, otherwise the bears are still in full control.
  • #136,695
  • Aug 24, 2015 12:32am Aug 24, 2015 12:32am
Quoting diggo
China is looking mighty scary.. But I am sniffing for a bargain here. Looking at the China A50.. currently 8800 coming off 15,000. What an incredible drop. Will be long if it reaches 8500, very strong support there. A hard and fast run at 10,000 should be easily achievable.
Bang.. just hit 8512. Was caught napping, but I managed to jump in long at 8580.. Lets see..
  • #136,696
  • Aug 24, 2015 2:07am Aug 24, 2015 2:07am
A new MASSIVE day in the markets !!! We got RED Friday and today we have officially BLACK Monday.

China carrying the board with force. A massacre in Chinese equities hitting the European opening, all European bourses and US futures markets in deep sell offs not seen with such speed since the financial crisis. DAX ticked 970x !!!, ES 1920.xx and we are basically in RED for the year across the world for the first time in nearly 5 years. However and very importantly, we are entering in major strong Fundamental and Technical Support areas that wont be taken easy (and more than prolly not at all in the short / mid term)

Oil hammered again & ticking to the $38 handle. We are in shooting range for main mid term final target ($36.xx)!!!(unbelievable pace of the leg). Even currencies breaching outside contained ranges. Dollar getting hit and losing floor intraday for the first time in months and obviously Euro breaching strong May highs and unlocking the extension for a test to the 1.16xx handle.

Asia in full control and Europe and US again playing catch up to the huge moves. Tracking very closely German and US news in each opening range session to put a stop in the bleeding and give some trading opps ... a flop in numbers will put more fuel on the move as we are in strong trending mode across al markets.

Quoting diggo
{quote} It seems the stars, moon and the sun may be aligning. This week could be the best opportunity to enter mid - long term short positions. 1.15x will NOT give up easily. Bulls need a Weekly and/or Monthly close above 1.15, otherwise the bears are still in full control.
Yes it looks definitely tempting TA wise but I am not in a hurry. A test 1.16xx handle is unlocked short term now and just by common sense and experience it will make more sense to avoid steping in against the main and MASSIVE flows happening across the board. As long as the equities don't find foot it wont make much sense for now....

Playing it with the M roll / NFP combo will make more more sense or with a full blown risk off leg (not in the cards for now) with investor running to dollar will be the other early option ... the normal play in the Euro still comes with the FED hike or not hike Sep so definitely not in a hurry ...

In any case, good luck if you go for it this week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,697
  • Aug 24, 2015 2:38am Aug 24, 2015 2:38am
Quoting sisse
A new MASSIVE day in the markets !!! We got RED Friday and today we have officially BLACK Monday. China carrying the board with force. A massacre in Chinese equities hitting the European opening, all European bourses and US futures markets in deep sell offs not seen with such speed since the financial crisis. DAX ticked 970x !!!, ES 1920.xx and we are basically in RED for the year across the world for the first time in nearly 5 years. However and very importantly, we are entering in major strong Fundamental and Technical Support areas that wont...
Hey Sisse and everybody!

How is it going? I am sure Sisse had a good summer! Well, I have been away from the market for the summer. Not completely away, just not put on any trades.

I agree with Sisse. No hurry to short Euro just yet. People are coming back from holidays now. Too sad that summer is going to end, but then again, there might finally be some fun moves on FX.

Good luck to you all! I still have a bit of summer tasks left.
  • #136,698
  • Aug 24, 2015 2:41am Aug 24, 2015 2:41am
The euro freight train seems impossible.. Trade what you see... Long and getting longer!!
  • #136,699
  • Aug 24, 2015 2:48am Aug 24, 2015 2:48am
SHEMITAH... Does this mean my silver will stop dropping like brick....7th cycle of 7... nothing to do with anything except cycles...a fun 30 mins.. over coffee..

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/rkELgi6EkNo/hqdefault.jpg
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  • #136,700
  • Aug 24, 2015 3:18am Aug 24, 2015 3:18am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hi Sisse! What if...: {image} {image} To not crack the yearly high, I had to modify your structure a little bit. Since 'C' point the pair is full of shorts, so taking it out (while creating T1 & optionally T2) would be reasonable before heading down (if heading lower at all).
Aug 11:
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Aug 14:
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Aug 24:
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Tp1 reached?
f(z)=z2+c
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