Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi all,

Today oil resume its downtrend pattern following D
Thus I have to follow D trend
but be careful with Support line
If there is possible counter trend, perhaps I try to do counter trend with limited profit (no overstay) or avoid it at all (maybe better but lost one day trade)
and see how the pattern are forming around the line
then enter the market again after it makes a clear new direction, reversal or continuation
since I am an individual trader I am free not to choose to be in the market all the time

I need to be out of the market when strong downtrend with possible reversal at SR line

I see price action, bouncing from support line, first it moves fast and furious, then getting slower and slower then reverse at the resistance line. cool

rt15

Hi rt15

Noted something from your previous post about t/a, if I may draw your attention to the line in the first post on the thread.

I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die)

The biggest clue I was given from fti to see how the market price moves was the fact the price moves in a pump and rest motion you will see this in all the time frames, when one (T/F) may look at rest another may look like it is in the pump stage, I found putting this knowledge together one can use it to find/see possible turns in the resumption of the higher frame trend, these pump and rest actions create dynamic s/r lines as the price progresses with the move, the other thing you need to note is when the market/chart is in consolidation/range, this needs to be traded differently to a trending market/price.

you should also note in the first post that fti has suggested what basics a trader needs to learn.

i wish you well on your journey.

Regards

Phil.

Thx Phil

Pump and rest motion as dynamic SR
range vs trending

got it
now back to practice my dancing

rt15

No probs.... I am still learning too so not sure if I will help or hinder you.

You need to get MM at least a bit IMO so the thread gives you lots to go on re that - you want to know concept at least of it as MM is VIP. Then start with if price is going long then so shall I and if short so shall I and if I am wrong then ???? (answer in thread).

There are examples where FTI comments on charts re patterns (but not Holy Grail) and books mentioned in this thread and related TAF lounge thread - these are useful in part. Romance of the kingdoms/news ... lots for you to read about. Who said you cannot watch for TA signs .... it is up to you...... read the thread.........FTI is qualified TA............the market will teach you so you need to be in it to learn about its changing nature.... it evolves all the time. It is your journey and you need to go on it. When I have done it for few years then maybe I can comment better........ but I am no-one really...

Some things I look for are like terrain (VIP) - large candles - strength of waves (how many candles in them) in 1 direction versus other direction...signs of accumulation/distribution (run up/down ends in very large candles - then deepest PB creates support/resistance zones then sideways patterns - but all different with similar features I guess)..... candles that do not do what you think....FTIs fool me once shame on you/fool me twice shame on me etc etc..........momentum....lots of things but in a sort of feeling it way and not rigid.

Your questions still show rigidity... drop it and you will learn.... it is about markets/MM and you. Dancing means following your partner.

Good luck... most important AOW (I am weakest on this myself).

​

Dancing Observation

From Fti post page 73 #1458
There are 3 colors to the chart
one for up, one down, one doji

Doji is important
the bar after it can give a clue to continuation or reversal
especially when it is near SR, make a certain chart pattern or after a long trend exhaustion

the market hesitates, then decide

Hammer is the 2nd
the bar after it can give a clue to continuation or reversal as well

the market can't touch a certain level and runs away from it

Harami, shooting star and D trend
Pay attention to this things as well

Dance to the music and follow its rhytm

last but not least Elliot wave

After the dance then MM

Scout is a small contingent
to test the water, feel the market

Small troops can stay longer in the market to follow the trend

Large troop is a raider/ a hurricane
Enter fast and leave fast to kill lots of enemy in short time

Know your limit
the total troops that can be deployed in the war
10% ?

Attack or Rescue use the same principle

Observe Fti post page 73 #1458 for his troops movement

Further on MM

Regarding Stop Loss
Naked Chart and no Stop Loss Order
but it doesn't mean no Stop Loss
Sometimes you have to take the bullet when market throw you a curve ball
hopefully it only takes from your profit

From Lusan Journal Forum
Page 1 Post 19
'Quoting fti
Hi Lusan,
read your journal, you seem to be ok.
The mindset seems good.
Well, the time you spent in market seems short,
but nevertheless it should best be to your convenience.

Watch your size, find your comfort size and stay there for at least a year.
This is to give yourself a chance to be really tested in mindset and mo.
More important , is that your mindset will change as your size changes.
Be assured that you shall be tested by a million possibilities.
You need to see how you fare in different scenarios.

KISS (keep it simple, strong) and relaxed.
Steady as she goes. Know that you are doing the ants job and is by leaps, probably out performing manywho are losing.
Try not to spend your foreign capital in one place.

Your gathering frame of mind is correct, but watch out for the curve ball that
auxesis mentioned will come one day, You need to know how you will deal with that when it happens.( a few may come in a year) Remember to remain nimble to change if required.
No stop loss order does not mean no stop loss.
Try to find your own threshold for pain. Let that be within your zone of accumulated profits and you will be fine.
Never lose your composure and respect for market.
It is always right, even when traders think that its wrong.

I shall visit your journal from time to time, if suits
Good Fortune.

regards

PS: I shall discuss with you about your 48sma when the time is right. For now steady as she goes.'

Regarding Counter trend
This is not fti method I think :-)

When I trade on M5, I always check D trend
If I think I trade with the trend I am more confident as it can move large and fast
I will defend with rescue troops if not moving in my favor, I will leave my troops in battle longer to try following the trend

If I think I trade counter trend I am very careful,
always put a stop loss at break even point, no overstay, get out for any signs o reversal, never leave unattended, ready to cut loss anytime

What the heck I always put a stop loss at break even point on both trend
Zero tolerance to Loss

I can relax a little bit with a stop loss
Sometimes my chart makes a spike in other direction (Crude Light Sweet Oil)
This is anticipating the terrain following AOW

Like fti said
This is an ant work
gain little by little but consistently
be patience, nimble, not greedy
dance to the tune, and zero tolerance for loss

Thank you fti for your lessons
The best one I can find
The Way of Trading

I am nobody but rigidity predictibility ..........think about it go with flow and let market teach you. Feels like you are writing a manual to me.


Sorry not feel good,

Alex

Art of War
Trading is like war indeed
Either you kill or be killed
you win or lose money
Not for a faint heart

Know your enemy :
The enemy is the market
It has lots of traps and deception for you (failed signals and lot of conflicting TA on different TF)
some surprises (spikes)
Know its dance and movement
Other traders are not enemy but fellow soldiers on different front

Know yourself :
Know your limit of total troops you can commit in a battle
Know your plan if it goes with or against you
Know when to attack, hold an attack, and retreat (timing and direction are important)
Know to use a spy to get info from battlefield (a scout)
Steady your emotion, keep calm, control your greed and fear
Be calm like a lake but fast as an eagle

Know the terrain :
Know your instruments (Forex, Commodities) and its behaviour (news time, end of contract)
Avoid traps (spikes in news time or end of contract)

Sorry, I am not trying to teach you/ write a manual
I am no master
but a newbie

I am reflecting what fti taught
just my idea after implementing fti idea in the market
open to discussion
so I can improve my technique

I agree I have to lessen my rigidity
and be more nimble
Please give some input or critiques

need a lot of practices in the market

http://peacefulwarriors.net/u-s-stoc...collapsing-as/

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0092099/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1

"You don't have time to think up there. If you think, you're dead."

simplify your technical analysis skills by looking at long term charts.they will really make your life easier.and only look at lower time frame when you are entering trades in the directions of long term charts.its all in the price.that's what we say. all that news you are straining to get being all over the news channels is all in the price.price gives you a very nice summary of the news ALL OF IT.can you summaries all the news affecting a particular currency. i donot think so . so ditch news trading and go full technical analysis
have very few indicators on your charts and always wait for confirmation on price move

@ fti
thank you for the post

@eric
yea I am fully technical and don't pay attention to news
yea sure we need confirmation
but even with it, market still can go the other way as market is always right

Rescue operation is very important
It's a tool to recover from market's deception
Need to know the dance and enter using fib sequence for size only
But you have to follow long term trend
It is the case when your timing is off

but if you trade counter trend
rescue operation is a suicide
especially if you can't dance well

I really enjoyed reading the first post in this thread mate. Thank you for this thread fti

Today I sold following D trend
Then a counter trend came and bleeding
Then I waited for Eliot wave 3 retracement
take a chance when upward thrust got weaker, enter again sold
and wham
both my sell position makes money
then I put a stop loss in win position on both
and simply ride the trend down

I am a believer in trend following :-)

but....
both my stop loss just got whacked with medium gain (1000)
I will make a lot more if I take profits instead :-) (2500)

only paper money